US Open 2019 - Women's Draw Predictions

Wild guesses

US Open 2019 – Women’s Draw Predictions

22 August 2019

God only knows what will happen...

First Quarter

Naomi Osaka won this title last year in a crazy, marred final over Serena Williams.  Osaka then won her second slam at the Australian in January, and looked set to become a long term tennis superstar. But she has looked rather ordinary most of this year.  She hasn’t had terrible losses, but she hasn’t won any more tournaments either.  There is concern over a knee injury that had her pulling out of Cincinnati last week.  She’s seeded #1 and if she’s healthy she could go deep – her draw looks manageable.

Aryna Sabalenka (seeded 9) had a cracker start to the year as well, taking the title in Shenzhen and reaching a career high ranking in February.  She cooled considerably during spring but made the San Jose final at the start of this month, so there may be hope for her US Open campaign.  She’s got a rocky start against compatriot and two-time slam winner, Victoria Azarenka.

Kiki Bertens (7) is the second highest seed in this quarter but has an awful 4-7 (win-loss) record at the US Open.  She won Cincinnati last year on a similar surface, but really it seems clay is her preference.

Belinda Bencic (13) is another player who started the year strong but has faded since.  At times she’s shown brilliant play, but she’s had her injury woes and it seems for now she’s lost the winning touch.  Still only 22 years old, she has lots of time to right the ship.

Also here is 15 year-old Coco Gauff who captured the public imagination with a run to the fourth round of Wimbledon last month.  I won’t expect a repeat, but won’t rule it out, either.  Her draw is not easy.  She could play Carla Suarez Navarro (28) in the second round.  CSN is no slouch at the USO, having been to the fourth round or better five times.

Osaka over Sabalenka

Second Quarter

Simona Halep (4) deservedly headlines this quarter.  Her Wimbledon title last month added a jewel to an already brilliant career that includes (now) two slam titles and two yearend #1 finishes.  That said, the US Open is her weakest slam.  While she has made one semi-final here, she’s also lost in the first or second round five times – rather excessive for a top player.   But if her Wimbledon title proves anything, it’s that you can never count her out.

The 2017 winner, Sloane Stephens, is seeded 11.  That seeding is lower than it has been recently.  She did post some good results on clay, making the semis in Madrid and the quarters at the French. But as the US Open champion only two years ago, and with a career high rank of #3, her poor results this summer are puzzling.  Perhaps less so considering she just got married – she might just be distracted.

There are several former slam champs in this section – Caroline Wozniacki (19), Garbine Muguruza (24), Petra Kvitova (6), Jelena Ostapenko and Svetlana Kuznetsova, both unseeded.  Kuznetsova broke out of a mouldering slump last week with a trip to the Cincy final, a 900 level tournament.  That rescued her ranking from below 100, but it’s far from certain if that will translate into a good run for the 34-year old in the next two weeks.  Kvitova had a strong start to the year, taking titles in Sydney and Stuttgart and making the Australian Open final.  She is always a threat.

                                                                                                                                      

But the biggest untapped potential in this quarter might lie with Bianca Andreescu.  She’s seeded 15 for this event, having reached a career high by taking the 900 title in Toronto two weeks ago.  The speed of her rise to the upper echelon has been dizzying.  She has absolutely no slam cred.  Her best finish in a slam event is a second round and she’s only ever won two slam matches.  In fact she’s never even played the US Open main draw before.  So why are some commentators calling for her to take the title?

Well for starters, she hasn’t lost a completed match since February.  That was just after she won a challenger tournament.  She started the year ranked below 100 and played qualifying for the Auckland tournament.  She won seven matches to make the final.  Then she stunned the tennis world by claiming the Indian Wells title – at the 1000 level, some argue it should be the fifth slam – taking out four top-20 players along the way.  But in her next event in Miami, she retired with a shoulder injury.  She took two months off to rehab the shoulder and came in stone cold to Roland Garros, where she won her first match and then withdrew to give herself more healing time for the shoulder.  Two and a half months later (nearly 5 months since she won at Indian Wells), she entered Toronto without match preparation, and took down three top-10 players, including an injured Serena in the final.

Her game is both powerful and varied, readily alternating hard drives with dropshots and lobs.  Most importantly she is mentally tenacious, coming back from deep deficits and toughing out close three-setters.  If she can stay healthy, she can go all the way.

Andreescu over Kvitova

Third Quarter

Karolina Pliskova (3) is the top seed in this quarter.  She has a chance to emerge from the tournament as world #1.  Taking off last year’s USO points she’ll start the tournament just 376 points behind Ash Barty.  With 2000 points on offer for the winner (1300 for the runner up and it goes down from there), whoever does better between Barty and Pliskova will likely be the new #1.  Osaka and Halep could also claim the top spot but they will start over a 1000 points behind Pliskova.

Pliskova has had a solid year, claiming three titles, one on each surface:  hard, clay, and grass.  She’s been to at least the US Open quarters the last three years, losing a very close final in 2016 to Kerber.  She didn’t win a warm-up tournament for this slam, but her hard-hitting, low-margin game can be deadly on this surface.

Elena Svitolina (5) has an intriguing opener against 17-year old Whitney Osuigwe.  Svitolina consistently posts strong results but she does not thrive at the slams and has never been past the fourth round of the US Open.

Madison Keys (10) just re-entered the top 10 on the strength of her title run at the 900 in Cincy last week.  Keys is a powerful player who gets her best results at the slams.  Despite her talent she has only claimed four WTA titles in her career.  She has made quarters or better at the slams five times in the last two years, including a final and a semi at the US Open.  A deep run seems likely, and the title is possible but will be a much bigger demand on her mental capacity.

Twenty-year old Sofia Kenin (20) has had a break-out year.  She’s won two titles at the 280 level and made the semis of both 900’s in Cincinnati and Toronto earlier this month.  She’s had five wins over top ten players this year, including one over Serena Williams.

Dayana Yastremska (32) has also claimed two 280 titles this year.  Only 19 years old, she made the third round in Australia and the fourth at Wimbledon.  Also here are French Open finalist Marketa Vondrousova (17), Johanna Konta (16) who made semis at the French and quarters at Wimbledon, and Venus Williams.

Keys over KaPliskova

Fourth Quarter

It’s impossible not to notice Serena Williams (8) in this quarter.  The 23-time slam champion is the leading sportswoman of this generation.  She will be facing off against the #2 top-earning sportswoman of this generation in the first round, Maria Sharapova.  Remarkably, they have never played at the US Open.  The head to head is 19-2 for Serena with Sharapova’s last win coming 15 years ago.

Serena will not be entering this tournament cold, having played a warm-up event in Toronto.  This has not always been typical of late and is likely a sign of her commitment to being fully ready to challenge for this title.  She has played in three slam finals in the last 14 months and not been victorious.  Prior to that she was 23-6 in slam finals.  She will be focused and it will require a brilliant effort to unseat her.

Ashleigh Barty (2) has already had an amazing year, winning her first slam title (the French) and ascending to the #1 ranking for seven weeks.  With Pliskova she leads the tour with three titles this year, one on each surface.  Hard may be her best surface so this title is within grasp.  A bit of a letdown after her triumph at Roland Garros would be understandable.  She’s very good but I’m not sure she’s ready to claim another slam quite yet.

Anastasia Sevastova (12) has made at least quarters the last three years at the US Open.  Angelique Kerber (14) was winner here in 2016.  Maria Sakkari (30) is having a break out year.  The entertaining shots of Su-Wei Hsieh (29) will also be on display in this quarter.  All are worth watching.

SWilliams over Barty

Semis

Andreescu over Osaka

SWilliams over Keys

Final

For me it would be a dream final that featured Andreescu and Serena.  The upcoming star against the established queen.  Hopefully it happens

SWilliams over Andreescu

Expert picks for the title

SWilliams:  3 – Joel Drucker, Matt Fitzgerald, Jordaan Sanford
Keys:  3 – Steve Tignor, Nina Pantic, Jon Wertheim
Andreescu:  2 – Ashley Ndebele, Cale Hammond
Barty:  1 – Steve Flink
Halep:  1 – Ed McGrogan

Odds

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 20 Aug 2019

1	SWilliams	5.5
2	Halep	8
3	Osaka	9
4	Barty	9
5	Stephens	13
6	Kerber	13
7	Kvitova	13
8	KaPliskova	13
9	Keys	13
10	Sabalenka	17
11	Andreescu	17
12	Svitolina	21
13	Muguruza	21
14	Konta	26
15	Gauff	26
16	Bertens	26
17	Anisimova	26
18	Kenin	26
19	Azarenka	34
20	Wozniacki	41
21	Sharapova	41
22	Bencic	51
23	Vondrousova	51
24	Mertens	51
25	VWilliams	67
26	Garcia	67
27	Kontaveit	67
28	Sevastova	67
29	Kasatkina	67
30	Ostapenko	67
31	Collins	67
32	Vekic	67
33	Bouzkova	67
34	Kuznetsova	67
35	Goerges	81
36	Swiatek	81
37	Vandeweghe	81
38	Rybakina	101
39	Yastremska	101
40	Sakkari	101
41	SuarezNavarro	151
42	Bellis	201
43	Bouchard	201
44	Makarova	201