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Nadal’s Private Party Preview – 26 Sep 2020 ... a.k.a. the French Open

 

Surprisingly, a majority of the ‘expert picks’ I track are predicting Djokovic for the title.  Or is it a surprise?

 

First Quarter

Novak Djokovic is undefeated in completed matches this year.  He just won Rome.  He’s got to be frustrated by the New York default, and the resultant loss of a golden opportunity in the slam derby and de facto GOAT race.  He looks to be super-focussed and I expect we will get his best tennis.  But past showings indicate that is about as good as Thiem on clay, and probably not as good as Nadal at his best on this surface.  But it should be enough to take him through this quarter.  He’s also lucky that Thiem and Nadal are both in the bottom half.

Ugo Humbert looked great taking Daniil Medvedev out of Hamburg.  Christian Garin (20th seed) made the semis there.  Karen Khachanov (11) has made the second week all three times he’s played here.  Robert Bautista Agut (10) has a tough opener against Richard Gasquet.  US Open semi-finalist two weeks ago, Pablo Carreno Busta is also in this quarter.  Perhaps Djokovic’s greatest challenge will come from Italian slugger Matteo Berrettini (7).

Djokovic d. Berrettini

 

Second Quarter

This is the quarter of opportunity – with no Nadal, Djokovic, or Thiem.  DMedvedev (4) is not at his best on clay, but can potentially beat anyone. Andrey Rublev (13) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) are playing the final in Hamburg as I write.  Both youngsters are finding their clay legs.  So too is Denis Shapovalov (9) who made the semis in Rome two weeks ago.  He’s the newest addition to the top ten so confidence should be high.  Will he remember to play with the patience required for clay?

But while this crop of up-and-comers are the highest-ranked in this segment, a more obligate clay-courter like Dusan Lajovic (22) could wreak havoc in this quarter.

Tsitsipas d. Rublev

 

Third Quarter

The blockbuster first-rounder here is between three-time slam winners Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka (16).  Murray is far from his best, and Stan may be too, but he looks stronger than Murray.  Felix Auger Aliassime (19) will be making his Roland Garros debut and has some solid results on clay.  Casper Ruud (28) made semis at both Rome and Hamburg and seems to love clay.  Borna Coric (24) made quarters at the US Open and plays well on clay.

Gael Monfils (8) won two titles this year before the covid break, but has looked very far from his best in the restart.  Will he refind his game at the slam where he has made the second week eight times, including a trip to the semis?  Can this natural entertainer do it without the crowd?  He could very well lose to the equally entertaining Alexander Bublik in the first round.  Also here is the Nadal-slayer at Rome, Diego Schwartzman (12).  Schwartzman could well take the quarter but it will probably depend on the mental state of Thiem.

Dominic Thiem (3) achieved greatness with his victory at the US Open.  He hasn’t played on clay and seems to need time to adjust to new surfaces.  Where will his head space be?  Will he be relaxed and play his best tennis or will he be lacking the urgency required of top-level competition, now that the slam monkey is off his back?  He has a brutal opener against Marin Cilic.  If he can get through that, he could go deep.

Thiem d. Schwartzman

 

Nadal’s Den

David Goffin (11) and 19-year old Jannick Sinner should stage an entertaining first rounder on Goffin’s best surface.  Alexander Zverev (6) made the quarters here the last two years.  The recent US Open finalist is a massive talent who should win a slam some day.  No one’s looking at him since Nadal, Djokovic, and Thiem are the obvious favourites, but I believe Zverev could take Nadal out, if Zverev plays his absolute best.

More trouble for Nadal might crop up should he meet Fabio Fognini (14) in the fourth round.  Fognini has four wins over Nadal, three of them on clay.  But consider the facts.  Nadal has 12 Roland Garros titles.  He’s only ever lost twice here.  He’s dubbed the King of Clay for a reason.  Pundits are pointing to his shocking upset in Rome as evidence that he is not ready for this slam, that the autumn conditions will hurt him, that Djokovic is the man to beat.  But this is Paris red clay, over best of five sets.  Nadal at Roland Garros is the safest bet in sports.

Nadal d. AZverev

 

Semis and Final

Djokovic d. Tsitsipas

Nadal d. Thiem

 

Nadal d. Djokovic

 

Expert Picks

Djokovic – 12 picks – McGrogan (Tennis magazine), Flink (Tennis magazine), Fitzgerald (Tennis magazine), Sanford (Tennis magazine), Shriver (ESPN), Gilbert (ESPN), Evert (ESPN), Bodo (ESPN), Mouratoglou (ESPN), Maine (ESPN), Hamilton (ESPN), Bembry (ESPN) 

Nadal – 9 picks – Tignor (Tennis magazine), Pantic (Tennis magazine), Drucker (Tennis magazine), Hammond (Tennis Magazine), Stubbs (ESPN), Stevenson (ESPN), Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Rubin (Sports Illustrated), Lisanti (Sports Illustrated)

DMedvedev – 1 pick – Drysdale (ESPN)

 

Bookies

Bet 365 decimal odds on 24 Sep 2020

1

Nadal

1.83

2

Djokovic

3.75

3

Thiem

3.75

4

Tsitsipas

17

5

AZverev

21

6

DMedvedev

26

7

Wawrinka

34

8

Schwartzman

41

9

Berrettini

41

10

AugerAliassime

51

11

Murray

51

12

Cilic

67

13

Raonic

67

14

Shapovalov

67

15

Rublev

67

16

Coric

67

17

Khachanov

67

18

Garin

67

19

Nishikori

67

20

Ruud

81

21

Monfils

81

22

BautistaAgut

81

23

Chung

101

24

Dimitrov

101

25

Sinner

101

26

Fognini

101

27

KAnderson

101

28

SeybothWild

151

29

Cecchinato

201

30

Moutet

201

31

Cuevas

201

32

Evans

201

 

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