Halep is the favourite. Serena is struggling. Azarenka is resurgent. Muguruza is giving off her usual set of mixed signals. The last five slams have had five different champions. How will it end in two weeks time?
First Quarter
Simona Halep is the #1 seed and would be my favourite even if all the top players were present. Covid has depleted the ranks, along with injury, and the tightness of the end of year scheduling. The two most notable absences are world #1 and defending champion, Ash Barty; and Naomi Osaka who just took the title in New York. Osaka has now won three of the last seven slams, and she would be my second favourite if she were playing. It seems when she is ‘on’ she is unbeatable. She is the de facto alpha right now. But I see at least two challengers for that honour, Bianca Andreescu and the redoubtable Serena Williams. Serena has been playing like she’s past her prime the last two years, and Andreescu has been battling injury.
So that leaves Halep. The bookies have her next nearest competitor, Muguruza, at just over triple Halep’s odds to take the title. Halep is undefeated since the relaunch (10-0) and has won three tournaments on the trot, since February, going 20-2 in matches for the year. She’s been in three French finals, winning in 2018. She’s best on clay. Victory here would mean she’d won three of the last ten slams. Her draw has a few landmines like Anisimova (25th seed) who beat her here last year, and Vondrousova (15) last year’s finalist; but it’s manageable.
Marketa Vondrousova has played little since her banner run last year, first because of injury, and then because of covid. But she just made the semis in Rome last week, taking out Svitolina, so she might be peaking at just the right time.
Kiki Bertens (5) looked unconvincing in both Rome and Strasbourg, losing both of her openers. Coco Gauff and Johanna Konta (9) have a rough opener in having to face each other. My sleeper pick for this quarter is Maria Sakkari (20) who made the semis at Rome last year and won a clay tournament in Rabat.
Halep d. Sakkari
Second Quarter
Serena Williams (6) has looked far from her best in the relaunch, notching 8-3 in matches. There may be some physical issues, she looks not as swift around the court as she used to, and it seems her best tennis is getting harder to muster. Against Azarenka in New York she came out looking like her old self with a barrage of first set winners, but in the second and third she stopped returning serve as effectively. Is this just a factor of being 39 years old, or has her fierce concentration and will to win between compromised? To me she looks lost at times, and uncertain. Serena’s three Roland Garros titles are more than anyone else in the field, but she is far from the favourite in my eyes.
Elina Svitolina (3) is at her best on clay and is in a final this week. She is slowly improving at the slams and has a decent draw to the quarters. There she is likely to run into Serena or Victoria Azarenka (10). Azarenka has dialed in her 2012-13 form taking the “Cincy” 900 and making the final at the US Open. She really lifted her level in a convincing win over Serena in New York, and they are slated to meet again in the fourth round here. There are other dangerous names here, too, like Mertens (16), Kontaveit (17), and Putintseva (23).
Svitolina d. Azarenka
Third Quarter
Sofia Kenin is seeded #4 on the merits of her Aus Open title, but seems to be having the typical maiden slam hang-over. Her strengths are consistency and tenacity which are often well-served on clay. Is she ready to re-ascend to the heights of her ability?
Aryna Sabalenka (8) loves belting the ball, but seems to have only one speed, and not a great record for tenacity. Elena Rybakina (14) is into a tour-leading (for the year) fifth tournament final this week. Karolina Muchova (22) made a fine run to the round of sixteen at the US Open two weeks ago, and to the Wimbledon quarters last year. Ons Jabeur (30) has hands like Federer and Radwanska, and made quarters at the Aus Open this year.
So the quarter is loaded with talent, but the block buster match may come in the third round between Jennifer Brady (21) and Garbine Muguruza (11). Brady ripped up her quarter at the US Open and it took a peaking Osaka to stop her in the semis, in one of the best matches of the tournament. Her record on clay is less than scintillating, but she’s made such a massive jump in level this year, it feels like we are dealing with a new player – anything seems possible. Muguruza is known for being unpredictable. Just when you write her off, she shows up in a slam final, like this year’s Australian Open. Now that everyone is expecting her to do well and she is the bookies second favourite, she will likely tank. Still, the French is her most successful slam and she’s been in reasonable form.
Muguruza d. Rybakina
Fourth Quarter
Karolina Pliskova (2) retired during the Rome final, which means she’s playing well on clay, but may have injury concerns. Since her run to the US Open final in 2016, she seems to wilt in the latter rounds of slams. Is she the best active player never to win a slam? Or maybe that ‘honour’ goes to Madison Keys (12) whose W-L ratio is 2.42 at the slams. After a few years of deep slam runs, Keys seems to have lost that winning feeling.
Sloane Stephens (29) was runner-up here two years ago and has won more matches here than at any other slam. Even one win might be a success now, given the trough in her results. Petra Martic (13) just made round of 16 at the US Open and was in the quarters in Paris last year. Her draw could set her up for a run to the quarters or better. Petra Kvitova (7) has won the fewest matches at the French, of the four slams, but did make the semis here way back in 2012. She’s also won the Madrid 1000 three times, so she can play on clay.
Martic d. Kvitova
Semis and Final
Halep d. Svitolina
Muguruza d. Martic
Halep defeats Muguruza for the title. Halep, Muguruza, Kvitova, and Azarenka will all be gunning for their third slam title. Serena will be looking to tie Margaret Court’s record at 24.
Expert Picks
Halep – 20 picks – Tignor (Tennis magazine), Pantic (Tennis magazine), McGrogan (Tennis magazine), Drucker (Tennis magazine), Flink (Tennis magazine), Hammond (Tennis magazine), Sanford (Tennis magazine), Maine (ESPN), Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Rubin (Sports Illustrated), Lisanti (Sports Illustrated), Shriver (ESPN), Gilbert (ESPN), Drysdale (ESPN), Evert (ESPN), Stubbs (ESPN), Bodo (ESPN), Hamilton (ESPN), Bembry (ESPN), Stevenson (ESPN)
Muguruza – 1 pick – Fitzgerald (Tennis magazine)
SWilliams – 1 pick – Mouratoglou (ESPN)
Bookies
Bet 365 decimal odds on 24 Sep 2020
|
1 |
Halep |
3.25 |
|
2 |
Muguruza |
8 |
|
3 |
SWilliams |
11 |
|
4 |
Azarenka |
11 |
|
5 |
Bertens |
13 |
|
6 |
Svitolina |
15 |
|
7 |
KaPliskova |
17 |
|
8 |
Mertens |
19 |
|
9 |
Kvitova |
21 |
|
10 |
Rybakina |
21 |
|
11 |
Sabalenka |
21 |
|
12 |
Kenin |
23 |
|
13 |
Vondrousova |
26 |
|
14 |
Keys |
26 |
|
15 |
Swiatek |
26 |
|
16 |
Sakkari |
26 |
|
17 |
Kerber |
26 |
|
18 |
Kontaveit |
29 |
|
19 |
Yastremska |
29 |
|
20 |
Gauff |
34 |
|
21 |
Ferro |
34 |
|
22 |
Konta |
34 |
|
23 |
Brady |
34 |
|
24 |
Martic |
41 |
|
25 |
Stephens |
41 |
|
26 |
Anisimova |
41 |
|
27 |
Ostapenko |
41 |
|
28 |
Sevastova |
41 |
|
29 |
Muchova |
41 |
|
30 |
Siniakova |
51 |
|
31 |
Garcia |
67 |
|
32 |
Kasatkina |
101 |
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