Madrid is kind of an up and coming tournament. It’s only been in its slot on the calendar since 2009, but seems a little like that ambitious new employee always applying for a higher role in the company. In the WTA it’s got full Premier Mandatory designation (a sort of 1000+) and seems to have been casting jealous eyes over at Indian Wells and Miami and their week-and-a-half time slots. Well this year at least, its aspirational fantasies have come true and the women’s main draw play began on Thursday, so we are already through a round and a half of play with only 24 women still standing out of the original field of 64. But these 24 are certainly the most interesting since they are all, till now, winners! So I’ll start there.
WTA first quarter
A cracker-jack match rests at the top of the draw between the last two French Open champs, Iga Swiatek (seeded 14) and Ash Barty (1). Swiatek has lost a total of five games combined in her first two matches. This seems to be her way when she’s dialed in. But can she handle adversity? Or will she have a mental melt down like she did after the winning the first set at the Australian against Halep 6-3? Barty has played the part of #1 this year very convincingly, taking three tournaments including the 1000 in Miami. Once I see Swiatek fight through a tough match against a top opponent I’ll believe she can do it.
The other match here is between Petra Kvitova (9) and Veronika Kudermetova. Kudermetova was runner-up in Abu Dhabi in January and took the 500 title on clay at Charleston. The 24-year old is having a break out year and is 7th in the yearly race. Kvitova also claimed a 500, at Doha. This could be close, but Kvitova seems to favour Madrid, and is a three-time titlist here.
Barty d. Kvitova
WTA second quarter
Paula Badosa Gibert and Anastasija Sevastova are both good players who were somehow qualifiers in this loaded draw, but here they are battling for a quarter-final spot. Across from them are Ons Jabeur, #12 in the YTD Race, and 8th seeded Belinda Bencic. On recent form, this quarter should go to Jabeur, but Bencic is a talented player who could lift her level stratospherically at any time. The bookies give a slight edge to Jabeur, and so will I.
Jabeur d. slicey Sevastova
WTA third quarter
A day behind in the schedule, eight players remain here, led by Simona Halep (3), who is a two-time winner in Madrid, and two-time runner-up – so the courts suit her. Elise Mertens (13), ranked 6th in the YTD Race, is incredibly solid but hasn’t hit the heights Halep has and trails their head-to-head 1-4. Menacing in the other half are Belorussian seeds Aryna Sabalenka (5) and Victoria Azarenka (12), but both have tricky second-rounders. Sabalenka could face Daria Kasatkina, the 23-year old who is a former top-tenner and has already won two tournaments this year, while Azarenka meets Jessica Pegula who made the quarters in Australia and has 10 wins this year over current or former top-10 players. I expect it to come down to Sabalenka and Halep, and it’s almost too close to call...
Sabalenka d. Halep
WTA fourth quarter
The last quarter would be a no-brainer if the surface were hard instead of clay, I’d almost ink in Naomi Osaka (2). But this is clay and she’s got limited cred on the surface. Her next match is a re-boot of the Australian Open semi with Karolina Muchova and, after that, Sakkari (16) or Kontaveit are both competent on the surface and dangerous. The other half is a dog’s-breakfast I’m not sure how to navigate. Brady (11), the AO finalist, is unproven on clay, while Ostapenko is a former FO champion who often looks like she doesn’t belong in the top 50. And then Pavlyuchenkova and Karolina Pliskova (6) are both notoriously streaky.
Osaka d. KaPliskova
Semis and Final
Can Osaka step up her game and show it works on surfaces other than hard? Would that be more than a mental test for her, or is there something about her game that doesn’t work on this surface? Jabeur is a fascinating talent with so many options for how to hit every ball. Will she stay focused and make smart high-percentage choices in a big tournament? Similar but opposite is Sabalenka who seems to want to bash every ball to smithereens. High percentage for her is adding variety. Is Barty really this cool, calm, and collected?
Barty d. Jabeur, Sabalenka d. Osaka
Barty d. Sabalenka for the title.
Men’s first quarter
Rafael Nadal (1) has only won this title five times so it’s a relatively weak clay event for him. Ha ha! And that’s not even a joke. He’s got Miami 1000 finalists Sinner (14) and Hurkacz (12) in his quarter along with Alexander Zverev (5). Zverev’s got four career titles at the 1000 level or higher and did take the 500 in Monterrey this year. Otherwise he’s looked a bit flounder-y on clay this season. Nineteen-year old Jannik Sinner continues to impress with huge strokes and mental toughness. He’s #7 in the year-to-date Race. He gave Nadal a solid push at the French last year: can he go one better? They could meet in the third round and it could get interesting.
Nadal d AZverev
Men’s second quarter
In any of the previous three years I’d put out an upset-alert with Thiem in the same half as Nadal. The Austrian has beaten Nadal six times, four times on clay, and in three of their last four meetings. But the 2021 version of Thiem has been injured and seems to have lost his competitive edge. Hard to blame him perhaps, after last year’s career-defining US Open trophy. He may come back to us, but I don’t think it will be quite yet.
The other biggest threats here are likely the seeds, Dimitrov (13), Roberto Bautista Agut (9), and Andrey Rublev (6) who would actually be world #3 if we had 52-week rolling rankings like normal times. RBA and Dimitrov are far from slouches on clay, but I’ll go with the red-hot Rublev.
Rublev d. Dimitrov
Men’s third quarter
The third quarter has got a fascinating cast replete with clay dynamo Diego Schwartzman (7), surprise-of-the-year Aslan Karatsev, and newly-crowned Monte Carlo 1000 champ Stefanos Tsitsipas (3). There’s also a fascinating first rounder between young guns Casper Ruud and Felix Auger-Aliassime (15). Ruud has been racking up clay wins in the last two years and just made semis in Monte Carlo. Meanwhile FAA has made a much-publicized coaching change to Nadal’s Uncle Toni. Felix’s talent has long been evident to anyone with eyes. Now the world waits to see if Toni Nadal’s reputation as prodigy-whisperer is deserved. Can he calm and/or spur Felix’s mind to let the Canadian’s amazing physical gifts flourish into titles. FAA is an abysmal zero for seven in ATP title matches in his young career.
Aslan? Like the lion from Narnia? Yes and yes. Karatsev made an eye-popping run from qualifying to the semis at the Australian Open in his grand slam main draw debut – a record. He’s since followed it up with a title in Dubai and a win over #1 Novak Djokovic in Novak’s home tournament in Serbia. At age 27, it’s a remarkably late debut, but the talent is undeniable. He’s #5 in the YTD Race, but somehow unseeded because of the stagnant covid rankings that are ‘official.’ Schwartzman is a significant clay talent who took Nadal out of Rome last year, and he has the misfortune of a possible first match against Karatsev. It’s tough to call, and the winner will have a chance to go deep. Meanwhile, Tsitsipas has stepped up a level this year.
Tsitsipas d. Karatsev
Mens’ fourth quarter
It looks like Daniil Mevedev’s (2) game should be perfect for clay. He covers the court like a short-seller in a bear market, he’s patient from the baseline, and he’s content to build points for superior positioning. But other than a surprise win over Djokovic in Monte Carlo 2019 and a deepish run there, he’s tragic on the surface, having never won a match at Roland Garros, Madrid, or Rome.
Matteo Berrettini (8) is fresh off the clay title in Belgrade and should be favoured over the other seeds here, Pablo Carreno Busta (10) and Christian Garin (16), as well as over Alejandro Davidovic Fokina, the 21-year old I pick to beat Medvedev in his first match.
Berrettini d. Davidovich Fokina
Semis and final
Nadal and Tsitsipas played a match-of-the-year epic in the Barcelona final last week. The higher and faster bouncing Madrid court might help Tsitsipas... might...
Nadal d. Rublev, Tsitsipas d. Berrettini
Nadal d. Tsitsipas for the title.
Errata: Muchova lost to Brady, not Osaka, at AO 2021.
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