Thirteen Roland Garros titles. Unbelievable. Can anyone stop the ageless Nadal?
First Quarter
Never before have all the Big Three of Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic been in the same half of a slam draw. It’s a golden opportunity for their young rivals to go deep. Roger Federer (seeded 8) has played only three matches this year, winning only one of them. He’s been recovering from knee surgery in 2020. He could easily go out in the first round. But despite the rust, if he feels confident in the leg, he could still make a deepish run. He could get a test in the second round from Cilic, or in the fourth from Berrettini. He’s made it clear that his priority is Wimbledon and that anyone picking him to win the French is crazy.
Matteo Berrettini (9) won the clay 250 in Belgrade and made the 1000 final in Madrid. He’s showing that his fine form of 2019 was not a fluke. His compatriot young-gun Italian, Lorenzo Musetti is at a career high #76 (official ‘frozen’ covid ranking), and would be #30 in normal 52-week rankings. Musetti continues to impress at only age 19.
But likely this quarter will belong to top seed Novak Djokovic (1). He looked thoroughly out-classed by Nadal in the Rome 1000 final, but is rounding into form and is still a level above everyone else, especially at slams. Although he dominates Nadal on hard courts, will he believe he can really challenge Nadal in Nadal’s favourite hunting ground?
Djokovic d. Federer
Second Quarter
Another 19-year old Italian, Jannik Sinner, lands in this section. He played a very competitive set against Nadal in the quarters here last year. His star has since risen and he’s seeded #18. He would actually be ranked #9 in 52-week rankings. He has serious power, good speed, and a strong mental game. He could face Nadal again, in the fourth round. I get the feeling that it’s just a matter of time before Sinner breaks out and vaults to a slam title. He made a sterling run to the final of Miami in April.
Andrey Rublev (7) hasn’t been quite the title winning machine he was last year when he claimed five crowns. But he looked strong in beating Nadal on clay in Monte Carlo and making the final there. He’s now made quarters at the last three slams, including the last French Open, played in October. He has four slam quarter-final showings without ever making a semi. This is second among active players (and third in the Open Era since 1968, second is Guy Forget with five) to the ‘leader’ Robredo, who has made seven slam quarters without advancing. Despite that cred, I think Rublev is likely better on hard than clay.
Aslan Karatsev (24) was a virtual unknown before his eye-popping run to the semis at the Australian in February. He would be #10 in normal 52-week rankings. Notably, he beat Djokovic on clay in front of Novak’s home crowd in Belgrade. He’s very dependable and hard-hitting off the baseline.
What can be said of Rafael Nadal that hasn’t been said? Seeding the 13-time champ at #3 seems ridiculous, but it’s nice to see that the ranking standards are followed fairly. Despite a few hiccups this spring, Nadal claimed the clay titles in Barcelona and Rome and is the heavy favourite of the bookies.
Nadal d. Karatsev
Third Quarter
Opportunity knocks in the bottom half of the draw. Who will be our finalist?
Dominik Thiem (4) is a two-time Roland Garros finalist and the reigning US Open champion. But having achieved that lifetime award for “Slam Champion,” he’s look unmotivated since. His results this year have been indifferent. After racking up 10 clay titles in five years, he hasn’t been close to a sniff this year. His best result was a semi in Madrid, where he was straight-setted by Zverev. If he can release his mind and find desire, I don’t doubt that at age 27 he still has the body and the game to challenge the very top, especially in Paris on his best surface. Hopefully he re-finds that inner fire.
Casper Ruud (15) seems at his best on clay. The 22-year old Norwegian won the clay 250 in Geneva last week and made semis at the Monte Carlo 1000 and Madrid 1000 events. No competitor will be eager to see his consistent and penetrating strokes coming across the net.
Alexander Zverev (6) looked impressive in winning the Madrid 1000, beating Nadal and Thiem in succession. Once an underperformer at the slams, he’s now made quarters or better five times including last year’s US Open runner-up showing. As impressive as the Madrid title was, it is not Paris, although he does have a title on similar slow clay from the Rome 1000 in 2017.
A Zverev d. Ruud
Fourth Quarter
Daniil Medvedev is the second seed, but even he mocks the idea that he is seeded higher than Nadal. He’s been incredibly entertaining the last few months, openly cursing clay and the very idea of clay court tennis during his matches: railing at umpires, fellow players, attending fans, anyone who would listen to his thoughts on the ‘garbage surface.’ With that attitude it’s no surprise he’s won only one match on clay this year. The 25-year old has still never won a match at Rome or Roland Garros.
Meanwhile Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) has been entrenching himself at the top of the game. He took the 1000 in Monte Carlo, and then pushed Nadal to the brink in the Barcelona final, and later Djokovic at Rome. With Thiem floundering, he looks like the top player on clay outside of the Big Three.
Since Medvedev is likely to produce a hole in the draw, who might take his spot? Nearby is Christian Garin (22) who is a solid clay player from Chile. He beat Medvedev to make the quarters in Madrid and won a round in Rome. Maybe that’s not the most scintillating record but he’s landed in a good spot in the draw. Also in this section is Reilly Opelka (32), the seven-foot American who made the semis in Rome with his monster serve.
Tsitsipas d. Garin
Semis and Final
Denis Shapovalov pulled out of the French after losing the final of Lyon last week. He also made semis at Rome last year and was starting to look like a legitimate threat on clay. He will be missed along with former champ Stan Wawrinka and former finalist Andy Murray.
If there were no Nadal... Tsitsipas and Zverev would be real threats to take the title this year. Djokovic would probably still be the favourite, but the margin would be razor thin. But there is a Nadal. Claiming a 14th title at Roland Garros would equal the entire slam haul of Pete Sampras. It’s simply astonishing.
Semis: Nadal d. Djokovic, Tsitsipas d. A Zverev
Final: Nadal d. Tsitsipas
Odds
Bookies’ decimal odds at bet365.com on 28 May 2021:
|
1 |
Nadal |
1.83 |
|
2 |
Djokovic |
5 |
|
3 |
Tsitsipas |
5.5 |
|
4 |
Thiem |
12 |
|
5 |
AZverev |
13 |
|
6 |
Rublev |
34 |
|
7 |
Sinner |
41 |
|
8 |
DMedvedev |
51 |
|
9 |
CaRuud |
51 |
|
10 |
Berrettini |
67 |
|
11 |
Federer |
67 |
|
12 |
Karatsev |
67 |
|
13 |
CarrenoBusta |
126 |
|
14 |
Schwartzman |
126 |
|
15 |
Garin |
151 |
|
16 |
BautistaAgut |
201 |
|
17 |
Fognini |
251 |
|
18 |
Nishikori |
251 |
|
19 |
DavidovichFokina |
301 |
|
20 |
Dimitrov |
301 |
|
21 |
Sonego |
301 |
|
22 |
AugerAliassime |
401 |
|
23 |
Musetti |
401 |
|
24 |
Raonic |
451 |
|
25 |
Khachanov |
501 |
|
26 |
Hurkacz |
601 |
|
27 |
Krajinovic |
601 |
|
28 |
Tiafoe |
601 |
|
29 |
Isner |
751 |
|
30 |
Pella |
751 |
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