It’s a banquet. We’ve had nine different winners at the nine clay events since Miami. While there are only five slam champs in the men’s draw at this French Open, there are 14 in the women’s. Ashleigh Barty has proven a worthy #1 with three titles this year. Naomi Osaka has gone from looking unbeatable on hard to rather vincible on clay. Sabalenka has taken leaps forward. With perennial clay favourite Simona Halep out with a calf injury, how have the divas of the WTA landed in the Paris draw, and who is likely to triumph?
First Quarter
Coco Gauff is coming into the potential that we all started to see three years ago. She’s still only 17 years old and figuring out how to be a pro and get the most out of her game. Her tennis IQ is maturing, getting control of her serve, making better shot selections, and harnessing her footspeed and hand skills. She just took the title in Parma and looks like a bona fide threat on clay. She hasn’t yet put up the string of results that would signal she is a favourite, but she is definitely a dark horse. And when a massively talented youngster plays a slam in good form, it’s fair to wonder if she can go on a run to the title and launch herself into superstardom.
Ash Barty (seeded 1) finally left Australia after a year at home and has been on a tear, taking the first tournament of her travels at Miami, defending her title there. With no Indian Wells and little tennis in the previous year, Miami felt like a slam and put up a mouth-watering final between Barty and a returning Andreescu. Barty was clearly on top when Andreescu injured her foot and retired during the match. Barty then continued winning, taking the title in Stuttgart and making the final in Madrid. But then she retired in Rome while up a set against Gauff. Barty downplayed the arm injury so I expect it won’t inhibit her. Barty and Gauff could meet in the fourth round here. Can Gauff earn a legitimate win this time?
With a fine run in Melbourne, Karolina Muchova (18) made her first slam semi-final. And although she had to take off most of the spring, she returned strongly making quarters in Madrid, taking out Osaka and Sakkari.
Karolina Pliskova (9) occasionally goes on deep runs on clay, like the semis of Roland Garros in 2017 and the last three consecutive Rome finals. But she can also go way off, like her blitzing at the hands of Swiatek this year.
Elina Svitolina (5) is newly engaged to Gael Monfils and is a very solid player whom no one will want to face. Will she be distracted? She’s been to the quarters here three times and it will take a determined effort to thwart her.
There’s an interesting first-rounder in this quarter between former French finalist Sloane Stephens and Carla Suarez Navarro who is returning from a battle with cancer, at age 32. CSN shares with Katerina Maleeva the dubious distinction of making seven slam quarter-finals without ever making a semi. I wish her the best in her return.
Barty d. Svitolina
Second Quarter
Sofia Kenin (4) was runner-up here just 8 months ago and was the ostensible #1 for 2020. Yet she has looked totally lost this year and is on a four-match losing streak. At some point she should turn it around, but I’m not sure it will be now.
Jessica Pegula (28) is having a breakout year with five W’s on clay this season. Since January she’s notched wins over Azarenka, Svitolina, Pliskova, and Osaka. She’ll be dangerous.
Another dangerous but somewhat unflashy player is Elise Mertens (14). She’s been to one slam semi and two quarters, but somehow doesn’t look like a threat for more when she gets there – the victim of more precocious players.
Continuing the resurgence she began last year, Garbine Muguruza (12) started the year on fire making three finals and claiming the 1000 title in Dubai. She has real comfort on clay, claiming the French title in 2016. Yet she seems, ever so slightly, to have gone off the boil in the last two months. Is it safe to count her out?
Iga Swiatek (8) had started to look mortal in the early parts of this year, after her transcendent destruction of last October’s French Open draw. But less than eight months later, she accounts for that slam title, a 500 in Australia, and the 1000 in Rome. She massacred Pliskova in the Rome final 6-0 6-0. She has to be considered a massive threat to reclaim the title at Roland Garros. The bookies have her as their outright favourite.
Swiatek d. Mertens
Third Quarter
Serena Williams (7) has played the last 11 slam tournaments without claiming a title. This is the longest such stretch of her career – her second longest is the seven slams she played between her first and second titles. So are her days in the slam winner’s circle over? They might be. A crop of young players has arisen that can match Serena in power, footspeed, and desire. The bookies have her as their 10th favourite. But I still count Serena as a serious contender for this title. She may not have won a slam in over four years, but her recent outings have looked promising. She looks more fleet of foot than she has for some time. That could be all she needs because the hands and the heart are still there. Does she still believe?
I think of her as a grass-courter but Petra Kvitova (11) has been to two Garros semis, owns three clay 1000’s in Madrid, and a title in Stuttgart. Can her streaky play last for two weeks on clay at the French?
Aryna Sabalenka is seeded at #3 and is at her highest ever rank. We all knew her powerful game could get her here, yet she has a slam problem – she’s never been past the fourth round at any of the slams. In fact she’s only been to the fourth round twice in 13 attempts. Is it a mental block? Can she overcome it? It took a very deep effort from Serena Williams to get past Sabalenka at this year’s Australian. I think Aryna is on the upswing and her finalist performances at Stuttgart and Madrid this year, splitting them with Barty, indicate that she is a real threat on this surface. Her draw looks quite manageable – at least until the quarters when she could run into Williams again.
SWilliams d. Sabalenka
Fourth Quarter
Naomi Osaka (2) has entered that elite group of 16 players who have won at least four slams in the Open Era (since 1968). She is the heir apparent to the alpha spot vacated by Serena Williams. But for all her near invincibility on hard courts, she has floundered on clay. This year she’s won only one match on the surface. She recently announced that she will not be doing press conferences during Roland Garros. I see this as a way of de-pressurizing herself. She is the world’s top paid female athlete, and the tennis establishment with the likes of Billie Jean King have lauded her use of her platform to stand for social justice. And while that is well-intentioned, I think Osaka has felt overwhelmed by all the scrutiny and even well-meaning encouragement. I believe her refusal of press duties will free her up to concentrate more on tennis and make her a better player. She has a plum draw and the talent to go all the way. Yet I have reservations about her lack of experience in taking clay titles.
Marketa Vondrousova (20) was runner-up at Garros in 2019. Kiki Bertens (16) has slipped more than her frozen ranking indicates since taking the Madrid 1000 in 2019. Belinda Bencic (10) continues to be an enigma. She made the final in Adelaide and quarters in Madrid but has done little else this year.
It’s great to see Bianca Andreescu (6) playing again after missing all of 2020. Even so, her presence continues to be erratic, with retirements, walkovers, and injury lay-offs. But she always poses a threat, as she showed by her scrappy run to the Miami final – only to retire during the final due to a foot injury. Although she was down in that match, there were signs she might fight back, but we’ll never know. This week she won two matches in Strasbourg before pulling out, citing a minor injury. Hopefully it means she is fit and ready for a long campaign at Roland Garros. It’s tough to predict how she might do. She’s 100% in tour-level matches on clay. But she’s only played three in her short career, pulling out of both clay tournaments she’s entered. But I love her fighting spirit.
Andreescu d. Osaka
Semis and Final
For me, Swiatek and Barty are the favourites for this title. They are both the defending champion in a way, since Barty didn’t play last year’s covid-choked edition, and they have had the two best clay season lead-ups.
The bottom half is a disaster. There’s not a single player I have any confidence in and honestly, a semi between Osorio Serrano and Konjuh is possible. Sabalenka did well on spring clay, but not on the slower red clay of Rome that is more like Roland Garros. Serena can never be discounted, but is 39. Andreescu and Osaka are massive talents that leave question marks about their abilities on the terre battue.
When Swiatek is on, she seems invincible on this surface, but I feel less certain about how she will react to a serious challenge – an equal. For that I look to Barty, who has shown more resilience and texture in the display of her mental strength.
Semis: Barty d Swiatek, Andreescu d. SWilliams (what a mouth-watering set of semis that would be!)
Final: Barty d. Andreescu
Odds
Bookies’ decimal odds at bet365.com on 28 May 2021:
|
1 |
Swiatek |
3.6 |
|
2 |
Barty |
6 |
|
3 |
Sabalenka |
8.5 |
|
4 |
Osaka |
13 |
|
5 |
Muguruza |
13 |
|
6 |
Kvitova |
21 |
|
7 |
Andreescu |
21 |
|
8 |
Svitolina |
23 |
|
9 |
Gauff |
23 |
|
10 |
SWilliams |
26 |
|
11 |
BadosaGibert |
26 |
|
12 |
Mertens |
34 |
|
13 |
Muchova |
41 |
|
14 |
Kudermetova |
41 |
|
15 |
Sakkari |
51 |
|
16 |
KaPliskova |
51 |
|
17 |
Ostapenko |
67 |
|
18 |
Azarenka |
67 |
|
19 |
Anisimova |
67 |
|
20 |
Stephens |
81 |
|
21 |
Kasatkina |
81 |
|
22 |
Vondrousova |
101 |
|
23 |
Kenin |
101 |
|
24 |
Rybakina |
126 |
|
25 |
Pegula |
126 |
|
26 |
Keys |
126 |
|
27 |
Kerber |
126 |
|
28 |
Bertens |
126 |
|
29 |
Podoroska |
151 |
|
30 |
Pavlyuchenkova |
151 |
|
31 |
Martic |
151 |
|
32 |
Ferro |
151 |
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