A win for Novak Djokovic at this US Open would be deeply historic. He would complete the calendar year grand slam, a feat last accomplished 52 years ago by Rod Laver in 1969, the only time it has been done legitimately on the men’s side by my judgment. Additionally, Novak would surpass Federer and Nadal and stand alone with 21 slam singles titles. Arguably, Ken Rosewall has 23 from the 1950’s, 60’s, and 70’s, but Djokovic’s achievement would surpass Rosewall’s in quality by most estimations.
Yet Djokovic has looked shaky since Wimbledon. Other than rushing to the Olympics in a
failed attempt to set himself up for the Golden Slam (who can blame him for
trying) he hasn’t played any of the North American hardcourt warm-up
tournaments. Djokovic looked wounded in
body and soul in Tokyo. Will he have
recovered enough to mount a serious challenge for the title?
Meanwhile the young(ish) guns of Medvedev, Tsitsipas,
Rublev, Berrettini, and Zverev are nipping his heals. I would say that in laying a title bet for
Djokovic vs these five rivals, the odds favour the rivals. But is any one of them individually a greater
favourite than Novak?
First Quarter
Djokovic’s #1 seed has helped him out with a
favourable draw. He could get Nishikori
in the third round, who memorably beat Novak in the semis here in 2014. Aslan Karatsev (seeded 21), despite a
glorious start to the year, is batting .300 in his last seven tournaments. The quarters could produce Hubert Hurkacz
(10), who has established himself as a top player by making the semis of
Wimbledon and winning the Miami 1000, or Matteo Berrettini (6), this
year’s Wimbledon finalist. Any shakiness
from Djokovic and these guys are likely to exploit it.
And if Tokyo showed us anything, it is that Djokovic, even
with 20 slams on his belt, can buckle to the weight of impending history. The awesome task of the calendar year slam is
seen as the ultimate in tennis and it has gotten the better of many great
players – like Serena Williams in the semis of the 2015 US Open, or Martina
Navratilova, who also fell two matches short in 1984.
Djokovic d. Berrettini
Second Quarter
Alexander Zverev (4) has been on fire this summer,
winning the 1000 in Cincinnati and the Olympics, with a win over Djokovic in
the semis. He brings an 11-match win
streak to the table and is likely to extend it.
But does he have the goods to go all the way? Zverev now has five 1000 titles, the ATP
Finals title, and an Olympic gold medal.
But at the ultimate tournaments, the slams, he has come up short,
despite being within two points of the US title a year ago.
A year ago in Paris Jannik Sinner (13) upended Zverev. But on hard courts I’d give the edge to
Zverev. In addition to Sinner, there’s a
host of interesting young players in this quarter. Sebastian Korda continues to impress –
this may be the last slam at which he is unseeded. Lorenzo Musetti has shown depth of
talent. Reilly Opelka (22) made
the finals at the 1000 in Canada two weeks ago.
And for Denis Shapovalov (7) the US Open has been by far his most
successful slam tournament. Also here is US Open lover Pablo Carreno Busta
who has twice made the semis in New York.
PCB won the match from which Djokovic was defaulted out of the Open last
year, and for good measure beat Novak for the bronze medal in Tokyo.
AZverev d. Carreno Busta
Third Quarter
Probably this quarter comes down to Andrey Rublev (5)
and Stefanos Tsitsipas (3). There are
disrupters like Frances Tiafoe, Felix Auger Aliassime (12), and
the colourful Nick Kyrgios, but the consistency shown of late by Rublev
and Tsitsipas has been testament to their maturity. Tsitsipas has a potentially tough
opener against Andy Murray in round one, but Murray’s form is very far
from what took him to three slams, two gold medals, and the #1 ranking. Tsitsipas has struggled in New York, never
winning more than two rounds, but the losses have been to quality opponents
like Rublev and Medvedev… although last year’s collapse against Coric was
memorable.
Tsitsipas d. Rublev
Fourth Quarter
You never know when Daniil Medvedev (2) will suddenly
become very entertaining. Sometimes he
soldiers on for matches at a time without incident. Then suddenly he kicks a camera in
Cincinnati, curses the surface in Rome, threatens to die on court, or mocks the
crowd like he did two years ago in New York.
But it does seem he plays his best tennis when he’s not having outbursts. No doubt his tennis can be deadly, but he’s
thrown in enough ducks in big matches that his mentality at crunch time is
suspect. Fortunately for him, there
looks to be little in this quarter to trouble him if he can stay focused: Casper Ruud (8), John Isner
(19), Diego Schwartzman (11)??
DMedvedev d. Isner
Semis and Final
Medvedev and Tsitsipas have both played slam finals this
year, (along with Berrettini). Will one
of them rise up again? A reasonable case
can be made that Medvedev will make his third final, and finally, now mentally
prepared, cross the last hurdle. And
then there’s Tsitsipas, who came so close at Roland Garros when he led Djokovic
by two sets to none in the final this year.
Djokovic has shown incredible tenacity this year in taking
the first three legs of the grand slam.
Especially in Paris where he took down the King of Clay in his own
living room, and then came back from two sets down against Tsitsipas. Novak has been focused and unwavering. Chances are he will do it again. The oddsmakers favour Djokovic and my head
tells me he is the favourite.
But I have a niggling doubt.
It has to do with Novak’s collapse in Tokyo. He comes into New York on a two match losing
streak. Will Djokovic have learned from
that and ensure that it doesn’t happen again – showing the tenacity he
demonstrated in Paris? And what about
Zverev? He’s on fire. But he’s also shown he can lose from a
winning position – like in last year’s US Open final. Who will feel the greater pressure, Djokovic
or Zverev?
AZverev d. DMedvedev for the title.
Expert Picks
Djokovic: 5 – Tignor,
Drucker, Fitgerald (all Tennis.com), Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Wilander
(Eurosport)
Medvedev: 3 – Kane, McGrogan, Saanford
(all Tennis.com)
AZverev: 1 – Hammond (Tennis.com)
Bookies (American odds)
Novak Djokovic -150
Daniil Medvedev +400
Alexander Zverev +700
Stefanos Tsitsipas +900
Matteo Berrettini +1600
Jannik Sinner +2500
Andrey Rublev +2500
Milos Raonic +3300
Andy Murray +3300
Denis Shapovalov +3300
Aslan Karatsev +4000
Felix Auger-Aliassime +5000
Hubert Hurkacz +6600
Grigor Dimitrov +6600
Nick Kyrgios +6600
Sebastian Korda +6600
Pablo Carreno-Busta +6600
Alex De Minaur +6600
Karen Khachanov +8000
Roberto Bautista Agut +8000
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