US Open 2021 Men’s Preview

A win for Novak Djokovic at this US Open would be deeply historic.  He would complete the calendar year grand slam, a feat last accomplished 52 years ago by Rod Laver in 1969, the only time it has been done legitimately on the men’s side by my judgment. Additionally, Novak would surpass Federer and Nadal and stand alone with 21 slam singles titles.  Arguably, Ken Rosewall has 23 from the 1950’s, 60’s, and 70’s, but Djokovic’s achievement would surpass Rosewall’s in quality by most estimations.

Yet Djokovic has looked shaky since Wimbledon.  Other than rushing to the Olympics in a failed attempt to set himself up for the Golden Slam (who can blame him for trying) he hasn’t played any of the North American hardcourt warm-up tournaments.  Djokovic looked wounded in body and soul in Tokyo.  Will he have recovered enough to mount a serious challenge for the title?

Meanwhile the young(ish) guns of Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Berrettini, and Zverev are nipping his heals.  I would say that in laying a title bet for Djokovic vs these five rivals, the odds favour the rivals.  But is any one of them individually a greater favourite than Novak?

 

First Quarter

Djokovic’s #1 seed has helped him out with a favourable draw.  He could get Nishikori in the third round, who memorably beat Novak in the semis here in 2014.  Aslan Karatsev (seeded 21), despite a glorious start to the year, is batting .300 in his last seven tournaments.  The quarters could produce Hubert Hurkacz (10), who has established himself as a top player by making the semis of Wimbledon and winning the Miami 1000, or Matteo Berrettini (6), this year’s Wimbledon finalist.  Any shakiness from Djokovic and these guys are likely to exploit it. 

And if Tokyo showed us anything, it is that Djokovic, even with 20 slams on his belt, can buckle to the weight of impending history.  The awesome task of the calendar year slam is seen as the ultimate in tennis and it has gotten the better of many great players – like Serena Williams in the semis of the 2015 US Open, or Martina Navratilova, who also fell two matches short in 1984.

Djokovic d. Berrettini

 

Second Quarter

Alexander Zverev (4) has been on fire this summer, winning the 1000 in Cincinnati and the Olympics, with a win over Djokovic in the semis.  He brings an 11-match win streak to the table and is likely to extend it.  But does he have the goods to go all the way?  Zverev now has five 1000 titles, the ATP Finals title, and an Olympic gold medal.  But at the ultimate tournaments, the slams, he has come up short, despite being within two points of the US title a year ago.

A year ago in Paris Jannik Sinner (13) upended Zverev.  But on hard courts I’d give the edge to Zverev.  In addition to Sinner, there’s a host of interesting young players in this quarter.  Sebastian Korda continues to impress – this may be the last slam at which he is unseeded.  Lorenzo Musetti has shown depth of talent.  Reilly Opelka (22) made the finals at the 1000 in Canada two weeks ago.  And for Denis Shapovalov (7) the US Open has been by far his most successful slam tournament. Also here is US Open lover Pablo Carreno Busta who has twice made the semis in New York.  PCB won the match from which Djokovic was defaulted out of the Open last year, and for good measure beat Novak for the bronze medal in Tokyo.

AZverev d. Carreno Busta

 

Third Quarter

Probably this quarter comes down to Andrey Rublev (5) and Stefanos Tsitsipas (3).  There are disrupters like Frances Tiafoe, Felix Auger Aliassime (12), and the colourful Nick Kyrgios, but the consistency shown of late by Rublev and Tsitsipas has been testament to their maturity.  Tsitsipas has a potentially tough opener against Andy Murray in round one, but Murray’s form is very far from what took him to three slams, two gold medals, and the #1 ranking.  Tsitsipas has struggled in New York, never winning more than two rounds, but the losses have been to quality opponents like Rublev and Medvedev… although last year’s collapse against Coric was memorable.

Tsitsipas d. Rublev

 

Fourth Quarter

You never know when Daniil Medvedev (2) will suddenly become very entertaining.  Sometimes he soldiers on for matches at a time without incident.  Then suddenly he kicks a camera in Cincinnati, curses the surface in Rome, threatens to die on court, or mocks the crowd like he did two years ago in New York.  But it does seem he plays his best tennis when he’s not having outbursts.  No doubt his tennis can be deadly, but he’s thrown in enough ducks in big matches that his mentality at crunch time is suspect.  Fortunately for him, there looks to be little in this quarter to trouble him if he can stay focused:  Casper Ruud (8), John Isner (19), Diego Schwartzman (11)??

DMedvedev d. Isner

 

Semis and Final

Medvedev and Tsitsipas have both played slam finals this year, (along with Berrettini).  Will one of them rise up again?  A reasonable case can be made that Medvedev will make his third final, and finally, now mentally prepared, cross the last hurdle.  And then there’s Tsitsipas, who came so close at Roland Garros when he led Djokovic by two sets to none in the final this year.

Djokovic has shown incredible tenacity this year in taking the first three legs of the grand slam.  Especially in Paris where he took down the King of Clay in his own living room, and then came back from two sets down against Tsitsipas.  Novak has been focused and unwavering.  Chances are he will do it again.  The oddsmakers favour Djokovic and my head tells me he is the favourite.

But I have a niggling doubt.  It has to do with Novak’s collapse in Tokyo.  He comes into New York on a two match losing streak.  Will Djokovic have learned from that and ensure that it doesn’t happen again – showing the tenacity he demonstrated in Paris?  And what about Zverev?  He’s on fire.  But he’s also shown he can lose from a winning position – like in last year’s US Open final.  Who will feel the greater pressure, Djokovic or Zverev?

AZverev d. DMedvedev for the title.

 

Expert Picks

Djokovic:  5 – Tignor, Drucker, Fitgerald (all Tennis.com), Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Wilander (Eurosport)
Medvedev:  3 – Kane, McGrogan, Saanford (all Tennis.com)
AZverev: 1 – Hammond (Tennis.com)

 

Bookies (American odds)

Novak Djokovic -150
Daniil Medvedev +400
Alexander Zverev +700
Stefanos Tsitsipas +900
Matteo Berrettini +1600
Jannik Sinner +2500
Andrey Rublev +2500
Milos Raonic +3300
Andy Murray +3300
Denis Shapovalov +3300
Aslan Karatsev +4000
Felix Auger-Aliassime +5000
Hubert Hurkacz +6600
Grigor Dimitrov +6600
Nick Kyrgios +6600
Sebastian Korda +6600
Pablo Carreno-Busta +6600
Alex De Minaur +6600
Karen Khachanov +8000
Roberto Bautista Agut +8000