Ashleigh Barty or Naomi Osaka. Barty’s title haul and match stats for 2021
make her the clear favourite in New York, with Wimbledon and four other tournament
crowns. Easy picking. Until you look at Naomi Osaka and realize she’s
only lost once at the US Open since 2017, and she hasn’t lost a slam match
anywhere since the 2019 Australian. But
she’s been off form lately, and in a weird headspace since she announced she
wasn’t doing press at the French. Will
that matter here?
First Quarter
Barty’s quarter is filled with some very serious contenders
and a few dangerous floaters. She plays
former Open finalist (2010) Vera Zvonareva in her opener. Zvonareva may be past her prime but can still
cause trouble. Barty has been
known to hit flat spots in slams before, throwing in the odd clunker of a
match, but those occurrences have become fewer and farther between. She rarely
goes off the boil now and even her bad days are good enough to win matches. And when she’s good, she inspires awe and
poetry… flowing around the court, controlling with her serve and big forehand,
dicing opponents with the backhand, finishing at the net when necessary, and
making winners look high percentage. She
really knows how to work the point to give herself the advantage.
Olympic gold medalist Belinda Bencic (seeded 11) is
back on the rise and could win the whole enchilada if she can stay in her best
tennis. Jennifer Brady (13) made
semis here last year and was runner-up at the Australian. Is she recovered from
her leg injury? Karolina Muchova
(22) was a semi-finalist in Australia, but has struggled for form of late. Jessica Pegula (23) has jumped a level
this year and is especially dangerous on hard courts. Anett Kontaveit is a finalist this
week in Cleveland, Jil Teichmann was a finalist last week in Cincinnati,
after taking out Osaka. And then there’s
Iga Swiatek, last year’s French Open champ, seeded 7. She’s been quiet
this summer and maybe her game works best on clay, but a deep run would hardly
surprise. Yet Barty is still the class
of the field.
Barty d. Swiatek
Second Quarter
Bianca Andreescu (6) didn’t play last year’s covid Open,
so she’s kind of co-defending champ with last year’s winner Naomi Osaka. Bianca’s got game, big game and variety, and
she also has confidence. But has that
confidence taken a hit as her body continues to betray her?
Giant killer, Maria Sakkari (17) is nearby but has a
tricky opener against talented and youthful Marta Kostyuk. Petra Kvitova (10) is starting to look
like her best days are in the past, but is still young enough at 31 to be a
serious contender. Oddly her monstrous
game has never really gelled in New York – maybe the bustle is too distracting. French Open runner-up Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
(14) is too good to ever count out, but may be resting on her laurels after that
scintillating run in Paris.
Not so, Karolina Pliskova. Pliskova (4) has been in
the Rome 1000, Canada 1000, and Wimbledon finals this year but has come up
short in each one. You sense she is
close – oh so close to a big victory. Could
it be here? She was the finalist in 2016
and led Kerber by a break in the third set yet failed to close. Can she overcome her mental demons? She’s a form player, and her form is good.
KaPliskova d. Sakkari
Third Quarter
Elina Svitolina, the perpetual #5 seed, is freshly
married to Gael Monfils and into the final of Chicago this week. Other than Rome she seems the player whose best
game just isn’t quite good enough to overcome the hot streak of a big hitter at
a major. Maybe the stars will align one
day.
Astonishingly, Marketa Vondrousova is unseeded. The Olympic silver medalist and former Roland
Garros runner-up receives no benefit from either tournament in the rankings,
but she is a dangerous floater. Simona Halep
(12) has dipped below the top 10 for the first time in years, but had been the
leading contender for the French and perhaps Wimbledon until she was derailed
by a calf injury in late May. New York
has frequently been unkind to her but she did make the semis once. Has she had
enough time to re-find form? She has an extremely dangerous first rounder
against Camila Giorgi who shocked by taking the 1000 title in Canada. Giorgi has typically wailed on the ball but her
lack of variety made her beatable. Will
the moderation and greater variety she showed in Montreal carry forward to New
York?
Angelique Kerber (16) has suddenly re-found form similar
to what took her to three slam titles.
She comes in on a 14-2 streak, and, lest we forget, won the title here
in 2016. Her tenacious counter-punching
will be a tough out for anyone. Madison
Keys and Sloane Stephens will rematch their 2017 US Open final in
the first round. Both seem very far from
four years ago. And packed into an
eight-player grouping with these three is the very young and very talented Coco
Gauff (21). It’s not a matter of ‘if’
but ‘when’ with Gauff. And if that seems
an overused sentiment in tennis, it really feels true for her. The talent is just so apparent, and she’s
still only 17. She’s got a brutal
draw. She will need to be zoning just to
get out of this quarter. But I wouldn’t put
it past her. Is she ready?
And not to be overlooked is four-time slam champ Naomi Osaka
(3). Naomi has done little to inspire
confidence, batting just over .500 since claiming her second Australian Open in
February. Her confidence seemed to
shatter over the no-press storm that developed in Paris. Has enough time passed for her to put that
behind her and be fully present for this year’s US Open? How distant does last year seem, when a
confident Osaka had a fresh Black Lives Matter mask ready for each post-match
press interview? She’s not there now. But I don’t discount her ability to play her
way into that form. At one point she
looked a sure bet to become the dominant player of her generation. Now that looks rather uncertain and Barty is
poised to usurp the title. A deep
rivalry between Naomi and Ash would be treat I hope we can look forward to for
years to come.
Osaka d. Svitolina
Fourth Quarter
This is the quarter that feels the most wide open to me. Of course surprises could happen in any
quarter of this draw – women’s tennis in the last decade has made that clear. The leading seeds here are Aryna Sabalenka
(2) and Barbora Krejcikova (8). Like
Gauff, Sabalenka’s talent is palpable.
Yet somehow Aryna struggles to close.
Her slam record is hardly enviable.
But she crossed the round-of-sixteen rubicon at Wimbledon. Has her trip to the semis opened the flood
gate to future slam triumphs, or will the pressure of deep runs in important tournaments
continue to haunt her?
Krejcikova has been the biggest surprise of the year
for me. After bouncing around number 200
in the rankings for 6 or 7 years, she’s suddenly exploded into a slam-winning
top-ten player. It’s completely
unexpected. She has tremendous variety
and power – positively Barty-esque. But
I don’t yet sense the poise and confidence that Barty is showing these days. Krejcikova has a real chance to emerge from
this quarter.
Also here is three time US Open finalist, Victoria Azarenka
(18). She doesn’t look to be in last
year’s form, but her record in New York is unavoidable. The perplexing Garbine Muguruza
(9) has slowly descended from the outstanding form she showed at the start of
the year. Ons Jabeur (20) and Danielle
Collins (26) have both been hot this summer and it would be both
surprising and not surprising to see either in the US final this year.
Krejcikova d. Sabalenka
Semis and Final
Surprisingly, none of the experts I’ve read pick Osaka for
the title, although the bookies have her as their second favourite. There’s a lot that could go wrong for
Osaka. She could easily lose confidence
and lose in an early round. But if
instead she gains confidence, anything is possible. However Barty’s current confidence is
palpable and her form is unchallenged by the contenders.
Barty d. KaPliskova
Osaka d. Krejcikova
Final: Barty d. Osaka
Expert Picks
Barty: 6 – Drucker, Hammond, Kane, Saanford, (all
Tennis.com), Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Navratilova (WTA)
Krejcikova: 1 – Fitzgerald (Tennis.com)
Sabalenka: 1 –
McGrogan (Tennis.com)
KaPliskova: 1 - Tignor
(Tennis.com)
Bookies (American odds)
Ashleigh Barty +350
Naomi Osaka +450
Aryna Sabalenka +1000
Simona Halep +1200
Bianca Andreescu +1200
Iga Swiatek +1200
Karolina Pliskova +1400
Garbine Muguruza +1600
Cori Gauff +1600
Madison Keys +2000
Elina Svitolina +2000
Barbora Krejcikova +2000
Petra Kvitova +2000
Maria Sakkari +2000
Karolina Muchova +2000
Danielle Collins +2500
Elise Mertens +2500
Victoria Azarenka +2500
Jennifer Brady +2500
Belinda Bencic +2500
Paula Badosa +2800
Anett Kontaveit +3300
Elena Rybakina +3300
Ons Jabeur +3300
Dayana Yastremska +3300
Angelique Kerber +3300
Amanda Anisimova +3300
Johanna Konta +3300
Camila Giorgi +3300
Marketa Vondrousova +3300
Jessica Pegula +3300
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova +4000
Jil Teichmann +5000
Fiona Ferro +5000
Alison Riske +5000
Sloane Stephens +5000
Petra Martic +5000
Daria Kasatkina +5000
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