Indian Wells 2022
10 March 2022
Men’s Draw
Rafael Nadal has been
tearing up the tour this year – going undefeated in three tournaments and
claiming a record-breaking 21st slam tournament in
Australia. Will his streak continue? Or will the newly-crowned #1, Daniil
Medvedev get revenge in the desert at Indian Wells? Could someone
else rise to the fore?
As I begin writing,
the first men’s match start time is an hour away, so hopefully not too many
matches are completed by the time I’m done – and this remains a true preview.
First Quarter
Daniil Medvedev’s rise
to the #1 spot, a life-long dream, couldn’t have had worse timing – coinciding
with Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, incurring international approbation for
his home country. Medvedev lamented the pro-Djokovic crowd that wanted to
see a Grand Slam completed at last year’s US Open, the site of Medvedev’s
crowning achievement, a slam title. And he was particularly disconsolate
after the Aus Open title match, confessing that the dreams and idealism of his
childhood self had been crushed by the pro-Nadal crowd that helped propel Nadal
from the brink of a straight-sets defeat in the final to a glorious ascension
to victory. So it’s hard not to feel sympathy for the gangly, quirky,
likeable Daniil. But I have little hope that his first tournament at #1
will end in victory.
The court in Indian Wells is
slow, and it’s even slower at night when Medvedev is likely to play. And
Daniil thrives on quicker courts, like at the US Open. He is primarily a
defender, standing almost unthinkably deep behind the baseline, so his shots,
while deep and well-placed, sit up on a slower court and give his opponent
time to respond. This shows up in his match-win record at Indian Wells which
is only 5-4, and he’s never been past the round of 16.
In the round of 16 he could
face Carlos Alcaraz (seeded 19) – the 18-year old Spanish teenager taking the
world by storm. I’m big on Alcaraz and his future potential. What
he’s already accomplished at this age is a strong indicator of future
greatness. An upset of the top seed is definitely possible at this venue,
although I’m not convinced that Alcaraz has yet developed the tools to break
down Medvedev’s awesome defense. But give the kid time.
The other half of this
quarter could come down to defending champ Cam Norrie (12) or Stefanos
Tsitsipas (5). Norrie, seemingly a non-flashy in-the-trenches journeyman,
has stunned me with his recent success. And I’m impressed with the
solidity of his game, but have yet to believe in the spark of greatness for
him. Meanwhile Tsitsipas tends to thrive on slow surfaces. Should
Medvedev survive Monfils (26) in round 3 and Alcaraz in round 4, I foresee his
end in the quarters at latest.
Tsitsipas d. Medvedev
Second Quarter
Nadal has just climbed
into a top four-seed position on the back of his astonishing 15-0 start to the
season. In the fourth round he could get a rematch from Australia of his
five-set win over Denis Shapovalov. But like Medvedev, Denis prefers
quicker courts (like Australia or Wimbledon), and he may not make it far enough
to face the mighty Spaniard.
Jannik Sinner (10) and
Casper Ruud (8) are in the other half of this quarter and both thrive on slow
courts. They could meet in the round of 16. Ruud probably has the bigger
weapon with his death-star forehand, but Sinner definitely wins in the backhand
department and may be more solid all-around. Casper is a little older and
his game is a little more developed and polished. Tough one to call.
Nadal d. Sinner (and
it won’t be close!)
Third Quarter
Alexander Zverev (3)
is the top seed here. He looked invincible in the last few months of
2021, but descended into petulance in a threatening attack last month on an
umpire’s chair in Acapulco, while berating the umpire, that generated $70,000
in fines and a year-long probation. The courts would seem to suit
him well enough, but he’s only made the quarter-finals here once,
last year, when he lost to Taylor Fritz. He could face Fritz (20) in the round
of 16, who seems on the upswing and apparently likes the conditions in the desert.
Awaiting the winner in the quarters is likely to be Matteo Berrettini (6) or
Felix Auger-Aliassime (9).
Berrettini owns the
head to head with FAA 3-1, although all the wins came on grass or indoor hard,
the fastest of surfaces and the sites of Berrettini’s greatest successes.
But FAA has been hot this year, claiming his first title – finally! on his 9th final
attempt – and nearly dumping Medvedev out of Australia.
I expect it to come
down to Zverev and Felix. ‘Normally’ I’d pick Zverev in this match-up,
but Felix is a changed player with Toni Nadal in his corner – showing a lot
more patience, while still allowing his athletic gifts to shine.
Auger-Aliassime d.
AZverev
Fourth Quarter
Novak Djokovic was
initially placed in the draw as the #2 seed, but immediately withdrew since he
can’t enter the US unvaccinated. That means the highest seed in the
quarter is #5 Andrey Rublev. Rublev is a very fine player to get where
he’s gotten, but I see his game as somewhat one-dimensional ball-bashing.
He’s not at his best on slow courts, but not terrible either, and he’s blessed
with quite a weak quarter. Hubert Hurkacz (11) or Aslan Karatsev (22)
might cause trouble in the round of 16, although neither seem at their best
either of late or at this venue.
Grigor Dimitrov (33)
has been slotted into Djokovic’s spot, but honestly I don’t expect him to get
more than a single win. Andy Murray is in as a wildcard and finally has a
reasonable draw. If he can get by Alexander Bublik (22) and Dimitrov, Murray might
face John Isner (23) in the round of 16. Isner hasn’t looked particularly
strong this year, but tends to thrive on American hard courts, and especially
at Indian Wells, where he made the final in 2012 and the semis in
2014. Isner is two years older than Murray, but his body seems to have
betrayed him less.
This quarter is
anyone’s baby, but in the absence of a strong favourite:
Rublev d. Murray
Semis: Nadal d. Tsitsipas, FAA d Rublev
Final: Nadal d. Auger-Aliassime
Let the win streak
continue!
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