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Indian Wells - Men 2022

 

Indian Wells 2022

10 March 2022

 

Men’s Draw

Rafael Nadal has been tearing up the tour this year – going undefeated in three tournaments and claiming a record-breaking 21st slam tournament in Australia.  Will his streak continue? Or will the newly-crowned #1, Daniil Medvedev get revenge in the desert at Indian Wells? Could someone else rise to the fore?

As I begin writing, the first men’s match start time is an hour away, so hopefully not too many matches are completed by the time I’m done – and this remains a true preview.

 

First Quarter

Daniil Medvedev’s rise to the #1 spot, a life-long dream, couldn’t have had worse timing – coinciding with Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine, incurring international approbation for his home country.  Medvedev lamented the pro-Djokovic crowd that wanted to see a Grand Slam completed at last year’s US Open, the site of Medvedev’s crowning achievement, a slam title.  And he was particularly disconsolate after the Aus Open title match, confessing that the dreams and idealism of his childhood self had been crushed by the pro-Nadal crowd that helped propel Nadal from the brink of a straight-sets defeat in the final to a glorious ascension to victory.  So it’s hard not to feel sympathy for the gangly, quirky, likeable Daniil.  But I have little hope that his first tournament at #1 will end in victory.

The court in Indian Wells is slow, and it’s even slower at night when Medvedev is likely to play.  And Daniil thrives on quicker courts, like at the US Open.  He is primarily a defender, standing almost unthinkably deep behind the baseline, so his shots, while deep and well-placed, sit up on a slower court and give his opponent time to respond.  This shows up in his match-win record at Indian Wells which is only 5-4, and he’s never been past the round of 16.

In the round of 16 he could face Carlos Alcaraz (seeded 19) – the 18-year old Spanish teenager taking the world by storm.  I’m big on Alcaraz and his future potential.  What he’s already accomplished at this age is a strong indicator of future greatness.  An upset of the top seed is definitely possible at this venue, although I’m not convinced that Alcaraz has yet developed the tools to break down Medvedev’s awesome defense. But give the kid time.

The other half of this quarter could come down to defending champ Cam Norrie (12) or Stefanos Tsitsipas (5).  Norrie, seemingly a non-flashy in-the-trenches journeyman, has stunned me with his recent success.  And I’m impressed with the solidity of his game, but have yet to believe in the spark of greatness for him.  Meanwhile Tsitsipas tends to thrive on slow surfaces.  Should Medvedev survive Monfils (26) in round 3 and Alcaraz in round 4, I foresee his end in the quarters at latest.

Tsitsipas d. Medvedev

 

Second Quarter

Nadal has just climbed into a top four-seed position on the back of his astonishing 15-0 start to the season.  In the fourth round he could get a rematch from Australia of his five-set win over Denis Shapovalov.  But like Medvedev, Denis prefers quicker courts (like Australia or Wimbledon), and he may not make it far enough to face the mighty Spaniard.

Jannik Sinner (10) and Casper Ruud (8) are in the other half of this quarter and both thrive on slow courts.  They could meet in the round of 16. Ruud probably has the bigger weapon with his death-star forehand, but Sinner definitely wins in the backhand department and may be more solid all-around.  Casper is a little older and his game is a little more developed and polished.  Tough one to call.

Nadal d. Sinner (and it won’t be close!)

 

Third Quarter

Alexander Zverev (3) is the top seed here.  He looked invincible in the last few months of 2021, but descended into petulance in a threatening attack last month on an umpire’s chair in Acapulco, while berating the umpire, that generated $70,000 in fines and a year-long probation.  The courts would seem to suit him well enough, but he’s only made the quarter-finals here once, last year, when he lost to Taylor Fritz. He could face Fritz (20) in the round of 16, who seems on the upswing and apparently likes the conditions in the desert.  Awaiting the winner in the quarters is likely to be Matteo Berrettini (6) or Felix Auger-Aliassime (9).

Berrettini owns the head to head with FAA 3-1, although all the wins came on grass or indoor hard, the fastest of surfaces and the sites of Berrettini’s greatest successes.  But FAA has been hot this year, claiming his first title – finally! on his 9th final attempt – and nearly dumping Medvedev out of Australia.

I expect it to come down to Zverev and Felix.  ‘Normally’ I’d pick Zverev in this match-up, but Felix is a changed player with Toni Nadal in his corner – showing a lot more patience, while still allowing his athletic gifts to shine.

Auger-Aliassime d. AZverev

 

Fourth Quarter

Novak Djokovic was initially placed in the draw as the #2 seed, but immediately withdrew since he can’t enter the US unvaccinated.  That means the highest seed in the quarter is #5 Andrey Rublev.  Rublev is a very fine player to get where he’s gotten, but I see his game as somewhat one-dimensional ball-bashing.  He’s not at his best on slow courts, but not terrible either, and he’s blessed with quite a weak quarter.  Hubert Hurkacz (11) or Aslan Karatsev (22) might cause trouble in the round of 16, although neither seem at their best either of late or at this venue.

Grigor Dimitrov (33) has been slotted into Djokovic’s spot, but honestly I don’t expect him to get more than a single win.  Andy Murray is in as a wildcard and finally has a reasonable draw. If he can get by Alexander Bublik (22) and Dimitrov, Murray might face John Isner (23) in the round of 16.  Isner hasn’t looked particularly strong this year, but tends to thrive on American hard courts, and especially at Indian Wells, where he made the final in 2012 and the semis in 2014.  Isner is two years older than Murray, but his body seems to have betrayed him less.

This quarter is anyone’s baby, but in the absence of a strong favourite:

Rublev d. Murray

 

Semis:  Nadal d. Tsitsipas, FAA d Rublev

Final:  Nadal d. Auger-Aliassime

Let the win streak continue!

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