Indian Wells 2022
10 March 2022
Women’s Draw
The first day of play
is already in the books, but the seeds don’t play until tomorrow. Without
Ashleigh Barty present, this tournament feels completely unanchored – literally
anything could happen. Naomi Osaka is back, but hasn’t rounded into form
yet, will she do it during the tournament? And what about Iga Swiatek,
recent winner of the 1000 in Doha? There are at least 15 former slam finalists
or winners in the draw.
First Quarter
Barbora Krejcikova was
set to be the #1 seed but withdrew shortly after the draw was released.
That leaves the highest seed here as Karolina Pliskova (#7) who hasn’t played a
match this year. More likely to battle for this quarter I think, are Simona
Halep (24) or Emma Raducanu (11). Raducanu suffered an injury in
Australia that forced her to slice all her forehands, yet she still won a match
there. She should be significantly more potent with a functioning
forehand. There is so little history on her, it’s tough to make predictions,
but I continue to remain impressed with the powerful game she displayed in
winning the US Open.
Halep was felled by
injury mid-last year but is on the comeback trail and claimed a tournament in
the lead-up to the Australian Open. The former #1 is too good to ignore.
Halep d. Raducanu
Second Quarter
Iga Swiatek (3) has
been gradually consolidating her position near the top of the rankings since
her surprise run to the French title in 2020. Her win in Doha last month
was her second 1000 title. Could she be primed for a third? There
aren’t a lot of weaknesses in her game, and when she’s hitting cleanly, like
Raducanu she generates a lot of power and creates winners while placing the
ball several feet inside the lines. Handy to have that margin. The
main rub against Swiatek has been the inconsistency of her mental toughness –
staying focused and not descending into impatient error-making.
The other half of this
quarter has Garbine Muguruza (8), Madison Keys (25), Elina Svitolina (12), and
Belinda Bencic (22). All are potent players who might be title contenders
– at least at various points in their careers. Muguruza seems to have
quickly lost the sparkling form that took her to the Tour Finals crown in
November, and Keys seems to be on a resurgence, in part because of her run to
the semis in Australia. For that reason I’ll take her to make the
quarters here.
Swiatek d. Keys
Third Quarter
Jelena Ostapenko (10),
Roland Garros champ from 2017, has suddenly reappeared with a semblance of game
and took the 500 in Dubai in February. She’s a pure striker of the ball
that can blow anyone off the court with her placements when she is on.
However her movement is not great. She’s in a talent-dense section with
Amanda Anisimova who took Osaka out of Australia, and last year’s US Open
finalist Leylah Fernandez (18), who’s just claimed the title in
Monterrey. Fernandez is incredibly scrappy with solid strokes but lacks a
point-ending weapon. Whoever emerges from that scrum could face Paula
Badosa (5) in the fourth round. Badosa is the defending champ here – a
title she’s held for only five months because Indian Wells was
played in October last year. She’s generally been playing well, and
the location and court surface should trigger good memories that bring out her
best game.
Also here is Anett
Kontaveit (4) who took the St. Petersburg trophy last month – a tournament that
would be cancelled if it were played now. She then made the 1000 final in
Doha, halting Ostapenko’s tear, but losing to Swiatek.
Lurking nearby is the
always dangerous Naomi Osaka, unseeded. Osaka should work through a
battle of former US Open champions in the first round against Sloane Stephens,
and could displace Jessica Pegula (14) if they meet in the third. It’s
tough to know where Osaka’s form will be after playing so little in the last
few months, but she seems, so far, to be in a better and more positive
head-space this year than the depths she plumbed in 2021. Osaka feels to
me a little like Serena did five or so years ago – capable of winning any
tournament she plays, possibly the best player in the draw, but with
uncertainty about if she will show up with her best game.
Badosa d. Osaka
Fourth Quarter
The last quarter
features Aryna Sabalenka (2), Maria Sakkari (6), Ons Jabeur (9), and Victoria
Azarenka (13), all of whom are top-level players. Two-time slam winner
Petra Kvitova is seeded #27, but has not looked like a legitimate threat for
some time. Sakkari has put together a sparkling 12 months, with two slam
semi-finals and a string of deep runs. She’s incredibly fit and hits
strongly, but she seems to have trouble closing out big matches and especially
finals. She’s only claimed one title, a small 250 three years ago.
Victoria Azarenka was runner-up last year in one of the year’s best matches, to
Badosa. She can’t be discounted but seems to rise up only occasionally
these days.
Sabalenka (2)
continues to occupy a spot near the top of the game because of her strong and
consistent play, and finally broke through to a slam semi last year, twice, at
Wimbledon and the US Open. She won two titles last year, but has
struggled with her service this season, hitting boatloads of double faults and
even resorting to underarm serving at times. The rest of her game is
solid, but the serving betells mental yips. Despite the weaknesses, she’s
a good bet to go deep, although probably not all the way.
Sabalenka d. Sakkari
Semis: Swiatek d. Halep, Badosa d. Sabalenka
Final: Swiatek d. Badosa
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