NOT the Nadal Invitational?? Is there actually parity at the top of men’s clay court tennis in 2022?
First Quarter
The stunning news of this year’s draw is that Nadal and
Djokovic are in the same quarter. They
are likely the two biggest favourites, along with Carlos Alcaraz – who is also
in the top half. In some ways it’s a
shame the three favourites of the bookies and the pundits are all crowded
together but it should make for some exciting matches before the final.
Djokovic missed Australia and the Sunshine Double, but came
back for the European clay swing. He was
upset in Monte Carlo and Belgrade, but had a good run in Madrid. He faced Alcaraz, the new ‘It-boy’ of tennis,
in the semis and they played a cracker of a match, narrowly losing 76 57 67. After some early rusty results, Novak was
clearly rounding into form. Then last week in Rome, Novak finally ran the table
and claimed his first title of the year facing very good (but not superlative)
competition. He appears to be reaching
peak form – the kind of form that saw him best Nadal in last year’s Roland
Garros and claim the title.
Nadal has looked unconvincing this clay swing, not claiming
a title – the first time since 2015 when he faced and lost to Djokovic in the
French quarter-finals. The last time
Nadal didn’t win a clay title all year was 2003, the year he turned 17. Nevertheless I would say Nadal is in better playing
form now than coming into the Australian Open in January, a tournament he won. And this is best-of-five tennis at Roland
Garros – the tournament he has won most.
Much is being made of Nadal’s loss to Shapovalov in Rome, a
loss that appeared to be hampered by Nadal’s foot condition. However Nadal has steadfastly maintained in
press that there is nothing unusual about his current physical condition. Therefore
I reject the generally accepted narrative that Djokovic is in top form and
Nadal is injured. The bookies have Nadal as only the third favourite. I think Djokovic is in very good form but lost
the crucial test against Alcaraz in Madrid.
Meanwhile, if Nadal says he is in decent form for Roland Garros, I
cannot but make the 13-time champion the favourite.
Also here is Felix Auger-Aliassime (9) who has been rounding
into decent form and pushed Djokovic in Rome.
He could prove a stiff challenge for Nadal in the fourth round, and
provide excellent preparation for Nadal before facing Djokovic.
Nadal def Djokovic
Second Quarter
My third and fifth favourites land here, Carlos Alcaraz (seeded
6) and Alexander Zverev (3). Alcaraz has
transformed the world of men’s tennis this year. The smiling 19-year old leads the tour with
four tournament wins, including two 1000’s, at Miami and Madrid. His game appears invincible. No weaknesses on the forehand or backhand –
instead he can hit winners of great pace off both wings. This becomes all the more deadly because of the
deadly and high-percentage drop shot that he employs frequently. Opponents have trouble defending, wanting to
stay far back to neutralize the great pace of Alcaraz’s ground strokes, but
then become vulnerable to the drop shot.
Add to this Carlitos’ (a preferred nickname) almost supernal foot-speed
and tremendous ability to stay focus and grounded, and the result is player of
the highest calibre.
He seems unnaturally mature for his age. Times are early,
but comparisons are already being made to the big three, and he seems to be
leap-frogging the Next Gen of Zverev, Medvedev, and Tsitsipas who were thought
to be the natural replacements of Nadal, Djokovic, and Federer.
Alcaraz has beaten all four of the other top favourites for
this title on clay this year – Djokovic, Nadal, Tsitsipas, and Zverev. Many are picking him for the title, and it is
a perfectly reasonable choice. My only
reasons for not joining the fray are that best-of-five tennis is a mental and
physical test that Alcaraz has little experience with, and that the win over
Nadal was in Madrid which plays faster than Roland Garros. We have certainly seen that Alcaraz can adapt
to new conditions, and it would not surprise me to see him hoisting the trophy
in two weeks. However, beating Nadal at Roland Garros is an exceptional
circumstance.
Zverev has had a decent clay swing, making semis in both Monte
Carlo and Rome, and the final in Madrid.
But Zverev displays mental weakness at the slams, having never beaten a
top ten player at one. Other notables in
this quarter include Cameron Norrie (10), Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (25) the
Monte Carlo runner-up, and 21-year old Sebastian Baez who could face Zverev in
the second round.
Alcaraz def
AZverev
Third Quarter
Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) is the only top-five favourite in the
bottom half of the draw, which should give him the advantage of an easier path
to the final. Tsitsipas has had a strong
clay court season winning a second Monte Carlo 1000, and finishing runner-up to
Djokovic in the Rome 1000. He leads the
tour in wins this year. He appears to be
in a very comparable position to where he was last year heading into Roland
Garros.
The next highest seed in this quarter is Casper Ruud
(8). Ruud just claimed the title in
Geneva this week and seven of his eight career titles have come on clay. He opens against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the 37-year
old former Australian Open runner-up who has declared he will retire after this
tournament. There seems little to stand
in Ruud’s path to the quarters, perhaps Hubert Hurkacz (12) or David Goffin.
Also here is Denis Shapovalov (14) who has a tricky opener against 19-year old
Holger Rune who won the clay 250 in Munich.
Tsitsipas
def CaRuud
Fourth Quarter
The last quarter is likely the weakest. Highest seed Daniil
Medvedev (2) has played only one match on clay this year, a loss, and is coming
off a hernia injury. He looks to be
rusty and clay is not his best surface.
He needs to be in fine fettle to succeed on the surface.
His countryman, Andrey Rublev (7) has had a typically
middling clay season, claiming the 250 in Belgrade over a rusty Djokovic, but
with few wins elsewhere. Similarly, he
made the quarters at Roland Garros in 2020, bracketed by first round losses the
other two years he played the main draw.
His draw this year is reasonable until the fourth round where he could
run into Jannik Sinner (11).
Sinner has made quarters and fourth-round in his two
previous appearances here, losing only to Nadal. Sinner has been posting reasonable results
but hasn’t yet made a semi this year. He’s
generally strong on clay, with a game founded on strong ground-strokes and a
stolid mental approach.
Miomir Kecmanovic (28) is a promising 22-year old who has
been having a very fine year, highlighted by 23 match wins. He will have a decent chance to take over
Medvedev’s spot in the draw since they are scheduled to meet in the third
round. Or possibly dependable Pablo
Carreno Busta (16) will step into that channel.
Sinner def
Kecmanovic
Semis and Final
Nadal def Alcaraz, Tsitsipas def Siner
Nadal def Tsitsipas
Journalist Picks
Djokovic – 7 – Tignor, Drucker, Wertheim, Snowman Sports,
Faizan, Roberts, Gross
Alcaraz – 4 – McGrogan, Fitzgerald, Whittaker, Law
Tsitsipas – 2 – Kane, Livaudais
Nadal – 1 – Lundy
Bet365.com Odds – 16 May
2022
|
1 |
Djokovic |
2.62 |
|
2 |
Alcaraz |
2.75 |
|
3 |
Nadal |
3.25 |
|
4 |
Tsitsipas |
6.5 |
|
5 |
AZverev |
15 |
|
6 |
CaRuud |
19 |
|
7 |
Thiem |
21 |
|
8 |
DMedvedev |
21 |
|
9 |
Sinner |
26 |
|
10 |
Rublev |
34 |
|
11 |
DavidovichFokina |
41 |
|
12 |
Schwartzman |
51 |
|
13 |
Auger Aliassime |
51 |
|
14 |
Hurkacz |
51 |
|
15 |
Musetti |
51 |
|
16 |
SKorda |
51 |
|
17 |
Shapovalov |
67 |
|
18 |
Kecmanovic |
67 |
|
19 |
Carreno Busta |
67 |
|
20 |
Karatsev |
81 |
|
21 |
Norrie |
81 |
|
22 |
Kyrgios |
81 |
|
23 |
Bautista Agut |
81 |
|
24 |
Fritz |
81 |
|
25 |
Garin |
101 |
|
26 |
Dimitrov |
101 |
|
27 |
Rune |
101 |
|
28 |
Munar |
101 |
|
29 |
Wawrinka |
101 |
|
30 |
Evans |
126 |
|
31 |
Goffin |
151 |
|
32 |
Fognini |
151 |
|
33 |
Gaston |
151 |
|
34 |
Varillas |
151 |
|
35 |
Khachanov |
151 |
|
36 |
Cilic |
151 |
|
37 |
Baez |
151 |
Comments
Post a Comment