Roland Garros 2022 Women’s Preview

 

Who can stop Iga?

 

First Quarter

Women’s tennis looks radically different now than it did at the beginning of 2022.  Four months ago, Ash Barty was world #1, and a medium-strong one.  There were credible challengers to her dominance like former slam winners Naomi Osaka, Barbora Krejcikova, Iga Swiatek, Garbine Muguruza, and Bianca Andreescu.  However most of the highest ranked players were non-slam winners like Paula Badosa, Anett Kontaveit, Aryna Sabalenka, and Maria Sakkari.

But everything changed in March.  Barty retired and Swiatek became invincible, winning all four 1000 events she’s entered this year.  She’s on a 28-match win streak, (fourth longest this century). And it’s not just the length of the streak, it’s the way she beats her opponents.  It’s become unusual for Iga to lose a set.  And the frequency with which she hands out bagels and breadsticks (6-0 and 6-1 sets) is astonishing, 17 in her last 20 matches.

Swiatek has already won a slam, the French in 2020, so she doesn’t have the pressure to win her first. Her ascent two a second looks inevitable.  Who can stop her?  The opinion among commentators has seemed to become, only Iga can stop herself.  Will she feel the pressure of expectation?  She is roundly expected to sweep to the French title, and anything short of the title will seem a disappointment.  Plus there’s the pressure of the win streak.  Can Swiatek keep a level head, deflect the pressure, and concentrate her way through to the title?

She will certainly be helped by her tennis.  She has developed a fearsome game with ample power, lots of spin, and lots of margin on her shots.  She’s also quick and athletic and runs down a lot of balls.  If she can stay healthy, her game seems like a winning one.

When she came to prominence in 2020 she was notable for having a mental coach, which she claimed help her to win.   However in the intervening year and a half she has been notable for occasional mental meltdowns and collapses, punctuated with periods of great clarity, like when she blitzed Pliskova 6-0 6-0 in the Rome final last year.  But the evidence of late is that her mental state has stabilized and that the mental coaching has turned her into real force.  When she won the French in October 2020 she was just 19 years old.  Now she is 20 and will turn 21 during the tournament.  So she has had time to mature – overall her mental game looks much stronger now than two years ago.  Barring injury or succumbing to pressure, it will take a near super-human effort to defeat her. 

But there have been a few players that have troubled her, so the betting odds pre-tournament for her were at 2.1 (decimal) or +110 (American odds), which, while strong, are not a sure thing.  Which players can trouble her?

Her quarter contains Simona Halep who was the second favourite of the bookies pre-draw at 8.0 (+700).  Halep is seeded only 19, largely because of missed chunks of last year due to injury.  But Simona is a former winner here, was twice runner-up, and has been a two-time yearend #1.  Halep has had a reasonable clay court season, beating a few good players but losing to others.  It does not suggest that a title-run is imminent.  However, she is a former champion and the thing about former champions is that they raise their games in the big tournaments and big moments.  Her record against Swiatek is 2-2, including a tight match in Indian Wells, during Iga’s current win streak.  So Halep does have a chance, but, in my opinion, not a great one given Swiatek’s recent form.  They could meet in the fourth round.

Liudmila Samsonova (seeded 25), the last person to take a set from Swiatek, is a possible third round opponent for Iga.  Jelena Ostapenko (13) champion from 2017 is also here.  The other highest seeds in the quarter are Karolina Pliskova (8) and Jessica Pegula (13) who both, while posting occasional good clay results are not strongest on this surface.

Swiatek def. KaPliskova

 

Second Quarter

The highest seeds here are Paula Badosa (3), Aryna Sabalenka (7), Danielle Collins (9), and Elena Rybakina (16).  All have looked reasonably consistent and strong this year and can be good on clay.  Of these, perhaps Collins can be the most brilliant, and Badosa the most consistently strong.  Sabalenka can bull-doze opponents on her day, but looks increasingly like a one-dimensional slugger.  Also here is Daria Kasatkina (20), who’s varied game can confound anyone, but often does not.

Badosa def Sabalenka

 

Third Quarter

This is perhaps the most loaded quarter, with a passel of real contenders like Olympic champ Belinda Bencic (14) who won the clay event in Charleston.

Maria Sakkari (4) had a great run to the semis here last year, upsetting Swiatek along the way.  She may be the most dangerous player in the draw for Iga.  However, she can have trouble closing, as witnessed by her loss in Rome last week to Jabeur while up 30-0 at 6-1 5-2, but losing in three sets.  She has only one small title to her name, and she’s only 3-3 (wins-losses) on clay this year.  Nevertheless she’s a giant-killer and a deep run is possible.

The bigger threat may be Ons Jabeur (6).  She’s been in three clay finals this year, winning the 1000 in Madrid, and was on an 11-match win streak before getting buzzed by Swiatek 6-2 6-2 in the Rome final.  Jabeur’s game has a lot of variety and she makes frequent use of the dropshot. When her head is in it and she’s not making errors her game can be Barty-esque and very pleasing to the eye.

Bianca Andreescu is unseeded but pressed Swiatek very hard in a 7-6 first set during their quarter-final in Rome (although Swiatek won in straights).  Bianca’s power, variety, and determination are always dangerous, no matter the surface, and she could very well emerge from this quarter and claim the whole tournament.

There’s a block-buster first-rounder here between four-time slam-winner Naomi Osaka and the woman who beat her at the Australian Open, Amanda Anisimova (27).  Anisimova is just 20 years old but was a semi-finalist here at just 17 in 2019.  On hard court I’d pick Osaka, but here I think it will be Anisimova.

Also in this quarter are US Open finalists Emma Raducanu (12) and Leylah Fernandez (17).  Fernandez has not looked convincing during the clay season, but Raducanu has mustered a few wins and could make the fourth round before running into Jabeur.

Jabeur def Andreescu

 

Fourth Quarter

The last quarter looks very weak to me.  Defending champion Barbora Krejcikova (2) is here but hasn’t played since February.  Anett Kontaveit (5) does not thrive on clay. Victoria Azarenka (15) can never be counted out but has looked dodgy mentally, especially in giving up on a match in Miami without reasonable explanation against 16-year old Linda Fruhvirtova.  Former champ Garbine Muguruza (10) seems to have completely lost her yearend-winning form.

The two players from this quarter with the best form coming in may be Jil Teichmann (23) and Coco Gauff (18).  Teichmann made semis in Madrid and quarters in Rome, but has never been past the second round of any slam.  Gauff looked reasonable during the clay swing and has been to the second week of a slam four times.

Gauff def Teichmann

 

Semis and Final

Swiatek def Badosa, Jabeur def Gauff

Swiatek def Jabeur

 

Journalist Picks

Swiatek – 12 – Tignor, McGrogan, Drucker, Fitzgerald, Livaudais, Wertheim, Lundy, Snowman Sports, Whittaker, Law, Roberts, Boughton

Jabeur – 2 – Kane, Faizan

 

Bet365.com Odds – 16 May 2022

1	Swiatek	2.1
2	Halep	8
3	Badosa	13
4	Sakkari	15
5	Jabeur	15
6	Krejcikova	19
7	Muguruza	19
8	Sabalenka	21
9	Andreescu	21
10	Osaka	23
11	Bencic	23
12	Kontaveit	26
13	Gauff	26
14	Rybakina	26
15	Raducanu	29
16	SWilliams	29
17	Anisimova	29
18	Ostapenko	34
19	KaPliskova	34
20	Azarenka	34
21	Kudermentova	34
22	Pegula	34
23	Kvitova	41
24	Muchova	41
25	Collins	41
26	Martic	41
27	Vondrousova	51
28	LFernandez	51
29	Kalinina	51
30	Alexandrova	51
31	Tauson	67
32	Keys	67
33	Zidansek	67
34	Pavlyuchenkova	67
35	Kerber	67
36	Kasatkina	67
37	LFruhvirtova	67
38	Teichmann	67
39	Sorribes Tormo	67
40	Giorgi	67