The main reasons the 2022 US Open draw feels so open is that Novak Djokovic is not here and Rafael Nadal has been injured. Factor in that Alexander Zverev is absent and Daniiel Medvedev is in poor form, and we can dare to dream of a new slam champion.
First Quarter
Daniil Medvedev is the number one seed and the
defending champion. He thrives on hard
courts and has made the final in two of the last three US Opens and in the last
two Australian Opens. This is his best part of the calendar. But he’s having a sub-par year. He’s been averaging a little over three
titles a year for the last four years, but since last year’s US Open, he’s won
only one, and lost in five finals. It’s
not terrible, it’s just not as good as we’ve seen him. So that makes him not as
strong a favourite as he might otherwise be.
But who can beat him? And will he
play into form?
Nick Kyrgios (23) beat Medvedev at the Canadian this
year and owns their head-to-head 3-1. He’s ranked
high enough to be seeded again, which is an improvement. If Wimbledon had counted for points he’d be
about ten spots higher. Nick’s run to
the Wimbledon final was impressive – finally, vindication of the talent that it’s
been so frustrating to watch him waste.
He seems like a changed player and if he can live up to his capabilities,
he could go all the way to the title. He
should get through a tough one with Thanasi Kokkinakis in the first
round, and if form holds, would face Medvedev in the fourth.
Of course, the wild card in this quarter is good ol’ dependable
Roberta Bautista Agut (16) who has winning records against both Medvedev
and Kyrgios; 6-2 (W-L) against the pair.
But beating both would put RBA in the quarters, something he’s never
done at the US Open.
Pablo Carreno Busta (12) made the most of his game in
taking the 1000 in Canada, the biggest title of his career. He’s twice been to the semis here, clearly
thriving in these conditions. At the
risk of under-estimating him, he doesn’t seem to have enough game to win a slam
– the highest player he beat in Canada was #10.
Of course the draw could break his way, but this is a pretty tough
quarter.
Felix Auger Aliassime (6) made the semis in New York
last year and the quarters of the Aus Open in January nearly taking Medvedev
out in five sets. He does well at hard
court slams. He’s looked in reasonable
form this summer, but may still have some steps to take before looking ready
for the biggest hardware. It looks like
he’s got all the parts. When will he put
it together?
RBA versus PCB is possible for this quarter, but I’ll lean
to the conservative and pick,
Medvedev d Auger Aliassime
Second Quarter
Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) is the highest seed in this
quarter. He would seem to be a strong
contender for the title, having just beaten Medvedev to make the Cincinnati
1000 final. He’s leading the ATP in
matches won this year. But despite the pedigree, he’s never been past the third
round. He could run into trouble there
again if he meets Maxime Cressy (30).
Cressy is a dedicated net-rusher and beating him requires an accurate
return of serve. And if Tsitsipas has a
weakness, it is his backhand return of serve.
If they meet, it could get interesting.
Matteo Berrettini (13) was on a roll going into
Wimbledon. He won two warm-up
tournaments on grass and had been in the final the previous year. But he was felled by covid and didn’t even
get to compete at SW19. It doesn’t look like he’s really found his form on hard
this year, losing both first matches in Canada and Cincinnati. But he’s gone deep in each of his last three
US Opens. One thing about playing
best-of-five sets in the majors is that it tends to favour the best
players. They’re less likely to be upset
because even if they start badly, they have time to work their way back into
the match. He’s got a good chance to go
deep again.
Taylor Fritz (10) jumped a level this year when he
won the Indian Wells 1000, beating Nadal in the final. He then proceeded to make his first slam
quarter-final, at Wimbledon. He did reasonably well in the hard court warmups,
beating Kyrgios, Rublev, and Tiafoe, but losing to Evans and Medvedev. His draw is favourable, so he could go deep.
Botic van de Zandschulp (21) broke onto the main ATP
tour last year by making the quarters at the US Open. He started in qualifying and won seven
straight matches before a tight four-setter with Medvedev. Now he’s an established seed. He’s not really a threat for the title, but
he could definitely take out a seed or two.
Tommy Paul (29) has been gradually climbing the ranks
since a surprise run to the title in Stockholm last November. He’s beaten Alcaraz, Sinner, and Cilic this
summer. It’s not clear yet what his ceiling
is, but a title run may be a step too far.
Sebastian Korda keeps beating big players like
Alcaraz and Auger Aliassime. He does
well at slams too, with a 10-5 record outside of the US Open – a promising
start for a young player. He could cause
trouble.
Casper Ruud (5) made it to the final of Roland Garros
this year. He is definitely a threat for the top on clay. But although he made the final of the Miami 1000
in March and the semis of Montreal, he does not seem like a top tier threat on
hard courts.
Berrettini def Fritz
Third Quarter
Hubert Hurkacz (8) is a puzzling player, alternating
between deep runs and early exits at tournaments. Overall he’s below .500 at
the slams, 16-17 in matches, with the clear exception being last year’s Wimbledon
when he made the semis. But he’s still
fairly new to the top, so I think he’s capable of more deep slam runs. Two weeks ago he made the final of the 1000
in Canada, beating Kyrgios. A title isn’t
impossible for Hurkacz, just not expected.
Jannik Sinner (11) is still so young, having just
turned 21 two weeks ago. He’s been
flitting in and out of the top ten, but has been showing less progress in some
ways than last year. His run to the
Wimbledon quarters, beating Alcaraz along the way, is not insignificant. It showed his abilities apply to all
surfaces, and this is usually the sign of deep talent. He’s also beaten Kyrgios, Rublev, and Isner
this year. He’s not been burning it up
on hardcourts this summer, but he’s shown results on the surface before. He has a chance to emerge from this quarter.
Marin Cilic (15) is a former champion here, back in
2014. He beat five slam finalists in
that run, including Roger Federer. But
after making slam finals again in 2017 and 2018, he’s been declining
somewhat. He surged again this spring,
making the semis of the French. He’s not
looked as strong since but did win two matches at both Canada and
Cincinnati. He could do damage.
Borna Coric (25) showed a lot of promise as a
teenager with two wins over each of Nadal, Federer, and Andy Murray. But then injury set in and the now 25-year
old became largely forgotten in various fits and starts through failed comebacks. Up to the Canadian Open, Coric had only won
four matches this year. But then
something clicked, and Borna beat Nadal for a third time, in the second
round. He backed it up with wins over
Bautista Agut, Auger Aliassime, Norrie, and Tsitsipas in the final – all excellent
hard court players. He comes into the US
Open undefeated, but what does it mean for his chances. Can he keep it up, or is a let-down
likely? If he can continue that level, he’s
a threat for the title, but how fragile is the bubble of confidence?
Carlos Alcaraz (3) has started to look a little more
human after the heights reached this spring.
After four titles before Roland Garros, he’s fallen to earth a bit – not
looking quite as unbeatable. But let’s
not forget he’s only 19 and the third seed.
He certainly has the capability of taking this title. He won only two matches in Canada and
Cincinnati, so I’m not expecting it. But
will he play himself into form?
Alcaraz def Sinner
Fourth Quarter
When Cam Norrie (7) won the Indian Wells 1000 last
October it seemed a freakish result. But
now, a year later, he’s a legitimate member of the top ten. He made the semis at Wimbledon and at
Cincinnati last weekend. He still doesn’t
seem like a grand slam contender to me but a deep run is certainly possible.
Denis Shapovalov (19) has never lost before the third
round at the US Open. He spent some time in the top ten last year, but he’s
floated down into the teens and twenties.
After a surprise win over Nadal on clay in Rome, he’d won only one match
before Cincinnati. He won two matches
there. Can he continue winning a few
matches in New York?
Andrey Rublev (9) has just dropped out of the top ten
after a nearly two year stint there. But his year hasn’t been that bad, with
three titles in spring. He’s struggled
to win matches on hard this summer. But
he’s been to the US Open quarters twice before and seems to do well on these
courts. Will he find a way to redeem his
summer?
Diego Schwartzman (14) is also a two-time
quarter-finalist at the US Open. Because of his lack of power I doubt he can
threaten for the title, and even a run to the quarters will be tough this year.
Frances Tiafoe (22) is rightly ranked in the mid-twenties,
but every once in a while he shows flashes of greater talent. He’s been in the fourth round of the last two
US Opens. Can he do it again?
Rafael Nadal (2) has not lost a slam match this year. He won the first two slams of the year
against the odds, and had to withdraw before his Wimbledon semi-final with
Kyrgios because of an abdominal tear. He’s
only played one match since then, a loss to Borna Coric in Montreal. So there’s no real match preparation for
Nadal before this major, but after his run in Australia, is that likely to hold
him back?
It seems that what’s most likely to thwart Nadal are
physical ailments. He was returning from
injury in Australia, played on a ‘zombie foot’ in Paris, and had to withdraw
from Wimbledon. Nadal says he is ready
to play, so I’m inclined to believe him.
But I do wonder what are the odds he will develop an injury, if he
should have to play through the next fortnight.
Setting injury aside, I have no qualms that Nadal has the talent
and ability, and certainly the mental gifts, to add a fifth US Open title to
his collection. His draw is not bad and
he won’t have to run into Alcaraz, Sinner, or even Coric until the semis. With Medvedev looking a little shaky, the
most interesting final might come down to Kyrgios versus Nadal, but I think
that is unlikely on Kyrgios’ part. If
Nadal does go all the way, it would be his 23rd slam title, tying
him with Serena. It seems
incredible. How high can he go?
It is in Nadal’s mental gifts that I have the most
confidence. He seems unshakeable
now. If he’s in any kind of form, I can’t
see him losing.
Nadal def Norrie
Semis
Medvedev def Berrettini
Nadal def Alcaraz
Final
Nadal def Medvedev
An undefeated year at the slams wouldn’t be a Grand Slam for
Nadal this year, but it’s certainly something.
Odds
Bookies decimal odds from bet365.com on 25 Aug 2022
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