Women’s US Open Lottery 2022

 

Despite the fact that world #1 Iga Swiatek has double the WTA ranking points of her next closest competitor, she doesn’t seem at all the favourite for the upcoming US Open.  It really feels like there is no favourite.

Or maybe 20 of them.

Swiatek’s odds were listed at 4.5 (or +350) before the draw, but as of Sunday night they have lengthened to 5.0 (or +400) with Simona Halep second at 8.5, and Caroline Garcia and Coco Gauff next at 17.  In the official rankings, Halep is #7, Gauff #12, and Garcia #17, which shows the wild state of the women’s game.

Since the last win of her early-year 37-match win streak, Swiatek has gone 4-4 win-loss.  Hardly encouraging.  Meanwhile Elena Rybakina won Wimbledon, and Halep and Garcia took the 1000’s in Canada and Cincinnati.  Regardless, SOMEone has to be the favourite, and I appreciate the bookies’ frustration in making it Swiatek. 

Former champions in the draw include Serena and Venus Williams, Sloane Stephens, Naomi Osaka, Bianca Andreescu, and Emma Raducanu. For a variety of reasons, none look likely to repeat.  So who will it be?  It really is a land of opportunity on the women’s side and I expect we will have had a spectacular Cinderella story in two weeks time.

 

First Quarter

Swiatek did poorly in the hard-court lead-up tournaments, winning two matches and losing two.  She’s complained about the US Open Series balls, which are lighter than balls used elsewhere.  It does seem a bit sexist that the men use normal heavy duty balls and the women don’t.  Given the way the women bash the ball, you have to wonder what century the USO thinks this is.  Swiatek is a heavy hitter, and the lighter balls fly on her.

Regardless, Swiatek is such a talent that it’s hard to pick against her in any particular match as I peruse the draw.  I don’t think she’s in the form to win, but who will beat her?

Sloane Stephens, champion from 2017, is a possible second round opponent but has looked wholly unconvincing this summer, 2-4 in her last four tournaments.

Amanda Anisimova (seeded 24) has wins this year over Osaka, Bencic, Kasatkina, Sabalenka, Azarenka, Collins, Gauff, and Pliskova.  Her movement is not great and she hasn’t been past the third round here before.  But it seems only a matter of time before this former French Open semi-finalist blasts her way to a slam final.

Chinese teenager Qinwen Zheng has also been giant-killing this year and took the only set from Swiatek at this year’s French.  She started the year well outside the top 100, but is up to 40.  I’m not sure her time is yet, but on the other hand it would not shock me to see her name on the trophy in two weeks.  She has a tricky opener against mercurial Jelena Ostapenko (16), who’s had some brilliant patches this year, but also a lot of weeds.

After a spectacular finish to 2021 and re-ascent to the #3 ranking, Garbine Muguruza (9), has managed to scrape together only nine match wins this year.  Her previous slam finals have come from seemingly nowhere, so perhaps she is primed for another deep run.  However this is by far her worst slam, having never been past the fourth round.

Bernarda Pera is not exactly a household name, but she has had a hot summer going 17-1 in her last 18 matches.  She hasn’t faced a lot of quality opposition during that run, but did take down #2 Kontaveit (who is admittedly struggling).  She could emerge from the section containing Muguruza and Kvitova.

Petra Kvitova (21) had been having a forgettable year before taking the title in Eastbourne and racing to the Canada 1000 final.  She’s notoriously unpredictable, but has made two quarter-finals at the US Open.  I would never bet on her, like Muguruza, to win.

Jessica Pegula (8) continues to impress, posting solid results everywhere she plays, netting a respectable 31-16 record on the year.  She’s never been past the third round here, but this is by far her best year.

In current form, Zheng is maybe the only legitimate Swiatek-killer in this section, it would be a fourth-rounder, so reluctantly I’ll predict,

Swiatek def Pegula

 

Second Quarter

Paula Badosa is the highest seed in this quarter at #4 but has had far from a convincing year to look like a title contender.  Her best result was winning the 500 in Sydney, but that was in January.  She went 0 for 2 at Canada and Cincinnati.  She’s strong with a solid game, and like Swiatek in the first quarter, I’m having trouble figuring out who could beat her.  At the slams, she’s only once made a quarter-final, and that was in Paris.  In New York her best result is a woeful second round.  But I feel she could still surprise with a deep run.

Marta Kostyuk is a hard-hitting 20-year old Ukrainian, ranked #72.  She has age on her side and potential beyond her ranking – exactly the kind of player that could cause trouble in a wide-open tournament.

Victoria Azarenka (26) has been to three US Open finals and must always be considered a contender on these courts.  Usually when she has a deep slam run she’s been showing her hand and doing well in the warm-up tournaments.  That is not the case this year, only 17-10 (W-L) in 2022.

Karolina Pliskova (22) hasn’t been ranked this low at a US Open since 2014.  The 2016 finalist had been having a pretty mediocre year but turned it around when she made the semis at the Canada 1000.  It’s hard to say if she’s ‘back,’ but she is always unpredictable and dangerous.

Marie Bouzkova had an eye-opening run to the quarters of Wimbledon and followed it up with a title at the 250 in Prague. At age 24, she may only now be finding her best tennis.  If Wimbledon had points she’d be seeded here.

Belinda Bencic (13) may be at her best on US Open hard courts, at least when she’s not claiming last year’s Olympic gold medal.  The USO is the only slam she’s made the quarters, doing it three times, and going on to the semis once.  If she’s going to shine, this is probably her spot to do it.

Last year’s shock winner, Emma Raducanu (11), has struggled since her out-of-the-blue run with only 13 match victories this year.  But she likes the light balls, which elevate her medium-powered game into something more deadly; and she’s been rounding into form, destroying Serena and Azarenka in Cincinnati before losing a close one to Pegula.  I’m not expecting a repeat of last year, but a deepish run would not seem outlandish, in this quarter.

What to make of Naomi Osaka? She seemed on top of the world last year after winning the previous US and Australian Opens back to back.  She was certainly world #1 by any objective accounting of the previous 12 months’ results.  Then came the disastrous French Open, her decision to do no press, and the undeserved vitriolic backlash from the press.  She’s seemed a shell of her former self ever since – at least on the court.  She’s had one good run since, to the final at Miami this year.  But after a comprehensive beatdown from Swiatek, she’s won only two matches till now.  She’s won the last two US Open’s played in even years.  This should be her year – except, it doesn’t seem to be at all her year.  I never count her out.  She’s got way too much talent for that.  But if she does somehow rise up, it will be unexpected.

Danielle Collins (19) had the misfortune to draw Osaka in the first round.  She’s been in a bit of an understandable recovery-slump after her stunning run to the Aus Open final in January.  She hasn’t played for nearly two months so it’s really hard to know what to expect from her.  A high profile match in the first round with Osaka should propel one of these great players to some self-confidence and perhaps a decent run through the draw.  Who will it be?

Elena Rybakina (25) is certainly under-ranked and under-seeded, given her accomplishments this year. The surprise Wimbledon winner would be seeded #6 if her Wimbledon win had counted for 2000 points like in most years, when Russians weren’t banned.  That said, a recovery period from such a momentous win is normal, and I wouldn’t expect a deep run from her at the very next slam.  However, it’s not impossible.

Venus Williams isn’t really a serious threat this year, but at age 42 and with seven slam titles under her belt, she deserves a mention.  Although she has made no hint of it, is this the last year we will see Venus?

Kaia Kanepi shares (with Katerina Maleeva) the dubious distinction of having made seven slam quarters without ever making a semi.  She is dangerous to all seeds in her vicinity, at least until the quarters, so watch out Rybakina and Sabalenka!

Aryna Sabalenka (6) has had kind of a middling year by her standards, but she’s been finding form lately and made the semis of Cincinnati.  She also made the semis at the US Open last year.  This hard-hitter can beat anyone.

There’s a lot of talent in this quarter, but without compelling reasons I’ll pick the top two seeds.

Sabalenka def Badosa

 

Third Quarter

Simona Halep (7) should rightly be considered a serious threat for this year’s US Open title. She’s been in five slam finals, but never in New York.  She looked strong in taking the 1000 in Canada.  Her retirement from her Cincinnati match was probably more preventive than a health issue to worry about. She’s 19-3 since Roland Garros.  This may finally be her time to shine at the US Open.

Madison Keys’ (20) career seemed to be slowly tailing off after her run to the 2017 US Open final.  But she’s been turning it around this year, making the semis at both the Australian Open and Cincinnati, as well as winning the title in Adelaide.  Hard to know what to make of her consistency, but she is a contender.

Coco Gauff (12) showed her potential by making the French Open final this year.  She is knocking hard on the door of the top ten.  It’s hard to believe she’s still only 18 years old.  Her best results have been at the French, but a deep run here, even the title, could hardly be called a surprise.

Beatriz Haddad Maia (15) seems like a fresh face from Brazil, but she is 26 years old.  It has been a break out year for her that saw her take back to back titles on grass, and make the final of the Canada 1000.  She seemed like a novelty at Wimbledon, but already she feels like a legitimate threat here.

Bianca Andreescu has been struggling for form.  She’s had a hard time putting wins together, but she did make the grass final in Bad Homburg, and won two matches in Canada.  She doesn’t appear any where near the level of her title-winning run in 2019, but if she can play her way into form, anything is possible.

Caroline Garcia (17) continues to baffle. After looking like a world beater in 2017 when she won the last two 1000’s of the year, beating Barty and Halep in the finals, Garcia largely disappeared.  Her ranking gradually descended to yearend #74 for 2021.  It was sadly unexpected for a player of her talent.  But after that low she has been mounting a solid campaign this year. She’s won three of the last seven tournaments she’s played, including one title on each of clay, grass, and hard. She was decisive in taking Cincinnati, winning eight matches because she had to play qualifying.

But is it realistic to expect Garcia to continue winning?  Will the victory in Cincy bring a let-down at the US Open?  There’s not much to go on, but she did win her first two 1000 titles back to back. She also took out three top-ten players in Cincinnati.  She could easily go out early.  But she can handle the light balls, and if she can find her recent form, she could go all the way.

Maria Sakkari (3) is at a career high ranking of #3. She can be a giant-killer and hit almost anyone off the court.  But she’s one of those players for whom I feel no lead is ever safe.  She can get dodgy mentally and lose from seemingly unassailable positions.  Her year started strongly, making finals in St. Petersburg and the Indian Wells 1000, but she’s struggled since, especially the last two months.

The winners of Canada and Cincinnati, Halep and Garcia, are my picks in this quarter.

Garcia def Halep

 

Fourth Quarter

Ons Jabeur (5) was expected by many to make the French final this year, but made it at Wimbledon instead. She may be 27 years old, but Ons is definitely having the best year of her career.  She is a threat for every tournament she plays.  On the other hand, she’s never been past the third round at the US Open.

Shelby Rogers (31) is 29 years old but has been having her best year.  It started at least year’s US Open when she beat #1 Ash Barty.  She seems to have more belief now, and also the ability to come from way back in a match and somehow eke out a win.  She made the final in San Jose, and seems to be in good form for the hard court swing.

Veronika Kudermetova (18) is a solid player who can do well on all surfaces.  I’m uncertain about her mentality in big matches, but she could certainly have a deep result.

Daria Kasatkina (10) has refound her top-ten form after an absence of four years. She seems more comfortable in her skin and with her game, and able to deploy the vast range of her shots.  She’s won two warm-up tournaments, a 250 in Quebec and a 500 in San Jose.  However she lost both of her first matches at the 1000s in Canada and Cincinnati.  She can get over-powered at times, but a deep run would not be unexpected.

Leylah Fernandez (14) had a fairy-tale run to the final last year beating Konjuh, Kanepi, Osaka, Kerber, Svitolina, and Sabalenka. The first two have career high rankings of #20 or better. The rest have all been to at least #3.  It really was an astonishing run. But it’s hard to know what sort of form Leylah is in this year.  She made the quarters of the French but then got injured and has only just returned to the court.

Her second round opponent could be Liudmila Samsonova, who won the title at the Cleveland 250 today, her third title of the year.  Clearly Samsonova is dangerous and knows how to win, even if she has not yet done well at the slams.

Barbora Krejcikova (23) has struggled with injury this year and that has complicated the sophomore year after her slam victory at Roland Garros.  She made the quarters in the most recent editions of both the Australian and the US Opens.  But her recent form has not looked very encouraging.

Ajla Tomljanovic has never really attracted my attention before, but she made the quarters at Wimbledon and the Cincinnati 1000, taking out Badosa and Kudermetova.  In those runs she showed an impressive ability to fight back and take matches that looked like they were going against her.  She’s in good form.

Anett Kontaveit (2) is somehow ranked #2, despite not having a strong year. In the yearly race she is only #14, but that is still respectable. There is little to suggest she will have a deep run.

Last, and certainly far from least, is Serena Williams.  The great doyenne of tennis.  She announced she is ‘evolving away’ from tennis and most expect this will be her last slam singles appearance.  It is probably foolish to expect more than a match or two from her, but so great is her talent she can never be ruled out.  A win over Kontaveit in round two would not surprise, but overall, I do not expect a deep run.  Rather I would like to celebrate one of the greatest, possibly THE greatest female player of all time.  She’s won 10 slam titles after age 30, and that seems impossible in this age of young athletes.  Her 23 slam titles are far more significant than Court’s 24, in my opinion, and the fields she has faced have been the toughest of all time.  Yes, Serena has been temperamental at times, and controversial.  But she is a driven person who’s been instrumental in beating down the doors of racism and chauvinism in her country.  I salute her.

Rogers def Tomljanovic

 

Semis

Swiatek def Sabalenka

Garcia def Rogers

 

Final

Garcia def Swiatek

I really can’t believe I’ve picked Caroline Garcia to win the US Open.  I must be insane.

 

Odds

Bookies decimal odds from bet365.com on 25 Aug 2022

1	Swiatek	4.5
2	Halep	8
3	Rybakina	13
4	Gauff	13
5	Sabalenka	15
6	Osaka	17
7	Raducanu	17
8	Garcia	17
9	Jabeur	19
10	Pegula	21
11	Haddad Maia	23
12	Andreescu	26
13	KaPliskova	26
14	Sakkari	26
15	Bencic	26
16	Anisimova	26
17	Keys	26
18	Kasatkina	26
19	Badosa	34
20	LFernandez	34
21	Kontaveit	34
22	SWilliams	34
23	Kvitova	34
24	Azarenka	41
25	Collins	51
26	Muguruza	51
27	Krejcikova	51
28	Kudermetova	51
29	Ostapenko	67
30	QZheng	67
31	Rogers	67
32	Mertens	67
33	Kostyuk	67
34	Stephens	81
35	Kanepi	81
36	Tauson	81
37	Alexandrova	81
38	Bouzkova	81
39	Samsonova	81
40	Pavlyuchenkova	101
41	Xiyu Wang	101
42	LFruhvirtova	101
43	Cornet	101
44	Kenin	101
45	Bouchard	101