After 18 consecutive years playing and 14 titles, Rafael Nadal is not playing the French Open in 2023. This is huge news for the rest of the field. Traditionally, Novak Djokovic would be the favourite in the absence of Nadal, but his form has been questionable this year. With Alcaraz taking three clay court tournaments this year, Rune beating Djokovic on clay, and Medvedev winning Rome, who is the favourite?
First Quarter
Carlos Alcaraz has had a #1-worthy year: 30-3 on the year including
4 titles. As tempting as it is to make
him the out-right favourite and slot him into Nadal’s shoes, that feels like a
bit of a cheat. Stepping back into
reality, this is a guy who’s won one slam title and hasn’t been past the
quarters in Paris. On the other hand, he’s
only 20 and the trajectory he’s on has been matched only by multi-slam yearend
#1’s. This guy looks for real.
Lorenzo Musetti (seeded 17), made semis in Barcelona and quarters
in Monte Carlo, both on clay, beating Sinner and Djokovic along the way. He’s a
force and no one wants to face him.
Cameron Norrie (14) hasn’t had a memorable clay spring but
very importantly, beat Alcaraz on clay in Rio de Janeiro in February. Doubtful he can replicate that, but you never
know.
Felix Auger Aliassime (10) has had a miserable year: 12-9 in
2023 and only 0-2 on European clay. But
he made the fourth round here last year, taking Nadal to five sets.
Finalist from two years ago, Stefanos Tsitsipas is seeded
#5. He’s had a decent year, a final, a
semi, and two quarters on European clay.
He hasn’t looked quite as ruthless as previous years and landing in
Alcaraz’s quarter is a tough draw for this potential contender.
Alcaraz def Tsitsipas
Second
Quarter
The draw feels a bit unbalanced with Alcaraz, Djokovic, and
Rune, arguably the top three contenders for this title, all landing in the same
half. Novak Djokovic (3) won the first
slam of the year. But by dint of
Medvedev’s victory in Rome, Djokovic fell from #1 to #3, making possible a
semi-final against Alcaraz – a bit of draw bad luck. I never count out Djokovic, especially in
slams in best of five. But honestly, he
has looked weak. He’s only 5-3 on European
clay this year. He will need to play his
way into form. And best of five in a 128
draw will allow that. But how healthy is
his elbow? I’m not confident in this
Djokovic. But watch him prove me wrong.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (29) has shown he cannot be
counted out on clay. He beat Rune this
year and made the final of Monte Carlo last year.
Andrey Rublev (7) is always consistent and has decent
results on clay, but seven losses in slam quarter-finals with zero wins seems
to show a limit.
Karen Khachanov (11) seems to have his best results in the
slams, making semis in his last two and fourth round in last year’s
French. But again, there seems to be a
limit to his talent.
Djokovic def Khachanov
Third Quarter
The Scandinavians and rivals Casper Ruud (4) and Holger Rune
(6) are top seeds in this section. Twenty-year
old Rune has only been improving and gained another win over Djokovic, this
time in the Rome quarters. He’s 13-3 on
European clay this year. He’s truly a title-contender.
Unfortunately, it looked like he ran out of steam against Medvedev in the Rome
final. I’m a little concerned how he’ll
do in best of five on clay, but he did make quarters here last year.
Taylor Fritz (9) doesn’t mind slow courts and beat two-time
defending champ Tsitsipas in Monte Carlo in a trip to the semis. But he’s faded down the stretch.
Francisco Cerundolo (23) is Argentine which is shorthand for
“he’s deadly on clay.” He’s got a big forehand and is only growing in
confidence.
Jan Lennard Struff (21) made a shock run to the Madrid final,
beating Tsitsipas and losing a tight three-setter to Alcaraz. At 33 years old
he’s hardly up and coming, but he may just be playing the best tennis of his
life.
Casper Ruud has not looked particularly strong this year,
but his runner-up performances here and at the US Open last year get him a lot
of street cred. Plus he finally seems to
be rounding into form, making semis in Rome.
Rune def CaRuud
Fourth Quarter
Not sure who dubbed him Clay-vedev, but after years of
trolling clay and complaining about “non-tennis” on this “not-a-surface,” Daniil
Medvedev (2) won the Rome title, typically seen has the best predictor of
performance in Paris. Granted he lost
first round at RG in his first four trips, but he’s made second week the last two
years, so we’ve seen this new Clay-niil coming.
Not that he won’t have to fight tooth and nail to go deep, but with
Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Tsitsipas safely in the other half, this is a golden
opportunity for the comical Russian.
Borna Coric (15) looked convincing (finally) making semis in
Madrid and quarters in Rome. But his
results are so inconsistent it’s hard to have too much confidence.
Alexander Zverev (22) looked like he might actually win the
French last year, but he has not fully recovered the form that preceded his
horrific ankle-snapping injury at this tournament a year ago. He’s on the way back and will be dangerous,
if not a top contender.
Jannik Sinner (8) is the guy everyone likes to love – the talent
and the heart are there, and the progress has been steady. He plays Alcaraz tough and his groundstrokes
are other-worldly. Or is his progress
stalling? He’s at a critical point in his
career. Will he become a top contender
or will he become a Berdych-like perma-resident of the top ten? He could win this tournament, but at this
point I’m expecting incremental progress.
He’s 0-6 against Medvedev.
DMedvedev def Sinner
Semis
Alcaraz def Djokovic
DMedvedev def Rune
Final
Alcaraz def DMedvedev
Experts
Alcaraz (10) –
Steve Tignor (Tennis Channel), Ed McGrogan (TC), Joel Drucker (TC), Stephanie
Livaudais (TC), Peter Bodo (TC), Jon Levey (TC), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated),
Gill Gross (Monday Match Analysis), Stephen Boughton (The Slice), Jose Onorato
(CBS)
Djokovic (2) –
David Kane (TC), Matt Fitzgerald (TC),
Bookies
Decimal odds from Bet365.com on 26 May 2023
|
1 |
Alcaraz |
2.5 |
|
2 |
Djokovic |
3.4 |
|
3 |
Rune |
8 |
|
4 |
DMedvedev |
10 |
|
5 |
Sinner |
12 |
|
6 |
Tsitsipas |
17 |
|
7 |
CaRuud |
19 |
|
8 |
AZverev |
26 |
|
9 |
Rublev |
51 |
|
10 |
Musetti |
81 |
|
11 |
Fritz |
81 |
|
12 |
Thiem |
101 |
|
13 |
Jarry |
101 |
|
14 |
Coric |
101 |
|
15 |
FCerundolo |
101 |
|
16 |
Auger Aliassime |
101 |
|
17 |
Tiafoe |
126 |
|
18 |
Khachanov |
126 |
|
19 |
Baez |
126 |
|
20 |
Wawrinka |
151 |
|
21 |
Struff |
151 |
|
22 |
Norrie |
151 |
|
23 |
Hurkacz |
151 |
|
24 |
Dimitrov |
151 |
|
25 |
Bautista Agut |
151 |
|
26 |
Paul |
151 |
|
27 |
SKorda |
201 |
|
28 |
Munar |
201 |
|
29 |
Umbert |
201 |
|
30 |
Etcheverry |
201 |
|
31 |
De Minaur |
201 |
|
32 |
Davidovich Fokina |
201 |
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