Roland Garros 2023 – Women’s Preview

Does anyone besides the new Big Three have a chance at this title? Swiatek, Sabalenka, and Rybakina have dominated the biggest titles in the last two years and currently hold all four slams.  But there are six other former slam winners in the draw: Krejcikova, Andreescu, Stephens, Ostapenko, Kvitova, and Azarenka.  Is any of them likely to rise up again, or could a new face hold the Coupe Lenglen aloft in two weeks?

 

First Quarter

She’s still #1 but she’s had a far less remarkable half year than last year’s run-up to this tournament.  Instead of four 1000 titles, Iga Swiatek has only two 500’s year-to-date.  She’s suffered three losses to Rybakina this year alone.  But her superlative defense and heavy topspin will always giver her an edge on Parisian clay.  The last defeat to Rybakina was actually a retirement at 2-all in the third, and I suspect she was going to win that one. Iga says her thigh injury is fine. I’ll give the nod to the increasingly versatile Rybakina on faster surfaces but I think a healthy Swiatek, two-time winner here, is still the favourite.  Also at stake for Iga is the number one ranking – where she’s been for 60 weeks.  When Barty retired last year, Swiatek triumphed under pressure and cemented the #1 ranking.  Can she do it again?

There are three former slam champs in this quarter, Krejcikova (seeded 13), and a fascinating first round clash between Bianca Andreescu and Victoria Azarenka (18).  Former slam finalists Madison Keys (20) and Coco Gauff (6) also feature, as well as last week’s Rome sensation Anhelina Kalinina (25) who beat three seeds there. But the toughest competition might come from Veronika Kudermetova (11), semi-finalist in Rome and a quarter-finalist here last year.

Swiatek def Kudermetova

 

Second Quarter

Elena Rybakina (4) has been on fire, featuring in all the biggest finals of the year: the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, and Rome.  The only one she’s missed was Madrid – but given Rome or Madrid as a predictor for the French, I’d take Rome.  She’s narrowly behind Sabalenka at #2 in the yearly points race. If both make it through, fans will be salivating for a clash between Rybakina and Swiatek.  Should Swiatek lose it will feel to me that she is no longer #1.  Rybakina’s calm demeanor serves her well under pressure and her clay prowess is, remarkably, still developing.  She’s probably my #2 pick for this title.

But there are some real threats in this quarter, not least of whom is Ons Jabeur (7). The Tunisian has had an up and down year, marred by injury.  She won on green clay in Charleston and if she’s healthy she could go all the way here.  Miami winner, Petra Kvitova (10) is also in the quarter, along with some dangerous floaters like Beatriz Haddad Maia (14), Donna Vekic (22), Ekaterina Alexandrova (23), and young Czech, Linda Noskova.

Rybakina def Jabeur

 

Third Quarter

Without one of the Big Three, this quarter feels more open.  Top seed is #3, Jessica Pegula.  She could certainly crown this quarter, but has never been past the quarter-finals of a slam, being halted there five times.  This is a golden opportunity to go further, even with a tricky opener against former quarter-finalist, Danielle Collins.

Maria Sakkari (8) is powerful and dangerous and made the semis here two years ago. She can wobble in big matches when the pressure mounts and is as famous for blowing seemingly insurmountable leads as for pulling off massive upsets.  She has a tricky opener against Karolina Muchova who took Barty out of the Australian two years ago.

Anastasia Potapova (24) has been having a breakout year.  Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova made the final here two years ago before missing most of last year with injury.  She’s got an intriguing first-rounder against another promising young Czech, Linda Fruhvirtova

Sakkari def Pegula

 

Fourth Quarter

It’s been hard to argue with the resume of Aryna Sabalenka (2) this year.  She leads the tour in titles and finals (3 and 5, respectively), including her first slam title at the Australian.  She beat Swiatek on clay in Madrid, and could take over the #1 ranking if she can claim the French.  Oddly she’s lost in the third round of this tournament the last three years and never been further.  I’m betting that ends this year.

She’ll have former slam champs Sloane Stephens and Jelena Ostapenko (17) to contend with. Ostapenko in particular has been having a better year, closing in on the form that took her to the title here six years ago. 

Former finalist Marketa Vondrousova is always dangerous, as is last year’s semi-finalist Daria Kasatkina (9).  Promising Qinwen Zheng (19) made the fourth round in her only previous appearance here and could run into Sabalenka in that same round.  Martina Trevisan (26) has been in the quarters or better here twice. 

And nearly forgotten is the sensation of 2022’s second half, Caroline Garcia (5).  Garcia has two runner-ups for the year, but is a patchy 12-9 outside of those two performances.  Despite and unconvincing 3-3 on clay this year, she’s got a lot of game; however her history at the French, 16-12, is hardly encouraging.

Sabalenka def Ostapenko

 

Semis

Swiatek def Rybakina

Sabalenka def Sakkari

 

Final

Swiatek def Sabalenka

 

Experts

Swiatek (6) – Steve Tignor (Tennis Channel), Ed McGrogan (TC), Joel Drucker (TC), Peter Bodo (TC), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Jose Onorato (CBS)

Sabalenka (3) – David Kane (TC), Stephanie Livaudais (TC), Stephen Boughton (The Slice)

Rybakina (2) – Matt Fitzgerald (TC), Jon Levey (TC)

 

Bookies

Decimal odds from Bet365.com on 26 May 2023

1	Swiatek	1.83
2	Sabalenka	6
3	Rybakina	6
4	Ostapenko	21
5	Vondrousova	29
6	Krejcikova	29
7	Jabeur	29
8	Pegula	34
9	Gauff	34
10	Sakkari	41
11	Kudermetova	41
12	QZheng	51
13	Garcia	51
14	Kasatkina	67
15	Haddad Maia	67
16	Bencic	67
17	Potapova	81
18	Samsonova	101
19	KaPliskova	101
20	Muchova	101
21	Andreeva	101
22	Svitolina	126
23	Kvitova	126
24	Keys	126
25	Trevisan	151
26	Teichmann	151
27	Stephens	151
28	Azarenka	151
29	Alexandrova	151
30	Mertens	201
31	Linette	201
32	LFernandez	201
33	Cocciaretto	201
34	Begu	201