Does anyone besides the new Big Three have a chance at this title? Swiatek, Sabalenka, and Rybakina have dominated the biggest titles in the last two years and currently hold all four slams. But there are six other former slam winners in the draw: Krejcikova, Andreescu, Stephens, Ostapenko, Kvitova, and Azarenka. Is any of them likely to rise up again, or could a new face hold the Coupe Lenglen aloft in two weeks?
First Quarter
She’s still #1 but she’s had a far less remarkable half year
than last year’s run-up to this tournament.
Instead of four 1000 titles, Iga Swiatek has only two 500’s year-to-date. She’s suffered three losses to Rybakina this
year alone. But her superlative defense
and heavy topspin will always giver her an edge on Parisian clay. The last defeat to Rybakina was actually a
retirement at 2-all in the third, and I suspect she was going to win that one.
Iga says her thigh injury is fine. I’ll give the nod to the increasingly
versatile Rybakina on faster surfaces but I think a healthy Swiatek, two-time
winner here, is still the favourite.
Also at stake for Iga is the number one ranking – where she’s been for
60 weeks. When Barty retired last year,
Swiatek triumphed under pressure and cemented the #1 ranking. Can she do it again?
There are three former slam champs in this quarter,
Krejcikova (seeded 13), and a fascinating first round clash between Bianca
Andreescu and Victoria Azarenka (18).
Former slam finalists Madison Keys (20) and Coco Gauff (6) also feature,
as well as last week’s Rome sensation Anhelina Kalinina (25) who beat three
seeds there. But the toughest competition might come from Veronika Kudermetova
(11), semi-finalist in Rome and a quarter-finalist here last year.
Swiatek def Kudermetova
Second Quarter
Elena Rybakina (4) has been on fire, featuring in all the
biggest finals of the year: the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, and
Rome. The only one she’s missed was
Madrid – but given Rome or Madrid as a predictor for the French, I’d take
Rome. She’s narrowly behind Sabalenka at
#2 in the yearly points race. If both make it through, fans will be salivating
for a clash between Rybakina and Swiatek.
Should Swiatek lose it will feel to me that she is no longer #1. Rybakina’s calm demeanor serves her well
under pressure and her clay prowess is, remarkably, still developing. She’s probably my #2 pick for this title.
But there are some real threats in this quarter, not least
of whom is Ons Jabeur (7). The Tunisian has had an up and down year, marred by
injury. She won on green clay in
Charleston and if she’s healthy she could go all the way here. Miami winner, Petra Kvitova (10) is also in
the quarter, along with some dangerous floaters like Beatriz Haddad Maia (14),
Donna Vekic (22), Ekaterina Alexandrova (23), and young Czech, Linda Noskova.
Rybakina def Jabeur
Third Quarter
Without one of the Big Three, this quarter feels more
open. Top seed is #3, Jessica
Pegula. She could certainly crown this
quarter, but has never been past the quarter-finals of a slam, being halted
there five times. This is a golden opportunity
to go further, even with a tricky opener against former quarter-finalist,
Danielle Collins.
Maria Sakkari (8) is powerful and dangerous and made the
semis here two years ago. She can wobble in big matches when the pressure
mounts and is as famous for blowing seemingly insurmountable leads as for
pulling off massive upsets. She has a
tricky opener against Karolina Muchova who took Barty out of the Australian two
years ago.
Anastasia Potapova (24) has been having a breakout
year. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova made the
final here two years ago before missing most of last year with injury. She’s got an intriguing first-rounder against
another promising young Czech, Linda Fruhvirtova
Sakkari def Pegula
Fourth Quarter
It’s been hard to argue with the resume of Aryna Sabalenka
(2) this year. She leads the tour in
titles and finals (3 and 5, respectively), including her first slam title at
the Australian. She beat Swiatek on clay
in Madrid, and could take over the #1 ranking if she can claim the French. Oddly she’s lost in the third round of this
tournament the last three years and never been further. I’m betting that ends this year.
She’ll have former slam champs Sloane Stephens and Jelena
Ostapenko (17) to contend with. Ostapenko in particular has been having a
better year, closing in on the form that took her to the title here six years
ago.
Former finalist Marketa Vondrousova is always dangerous, as
is last year’s semi-finalist Daria Kasatkina (9). Promising Qinwen Zheng (19) made the fourth
round in her only previous appearance here and could run into Sabalenka in that
same round. Martina Trevisan (26) has
been in the quarters or better here twice.
And nearly forgotten is the sensation of 2022’s second half,
Caroline Garcia (5). Garcia has two
runner-ups for the year, but is a patchy 12-9 outside of those two
performances. Despite and unconvincing
3-3 on clay this year, she’s got a lot of game; however her history at the
French, 16-12, is hardly encouraging.
Sabalenka def Ostapenko
Semis
Swiatek def Rybakina
Sabalenka def Sakkari
Final
Swiatek def Sabalenka
Experts
Swiatek (6) –
Steve Tignor (Tennis Channel), Ed McGrogan (TC), Joel Drucker (TC), Peter Bodo
(TC), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Jose Onorato (CBS)
Sabalenka (3)
– David Kane (TC), Stephanie Livaudais (TC), Stephen Boughton (The Slice)
Rybakina (2)
– Matt Fitzgerald (TC), Jon Levey (TC)
Decimal odds from Bet365.com
on 26 May 2023
|
1 |
Swiatek |
1.83 |
|
2 |
Sabalenka |
6 |
|
3 |
Rybakina |
6 |
|
4 |
Ostapenko |
21 |
|
5 |
Vondrousova |
29 |
|
6 |
Krejcikova |
29 |
|
7 |
Jabeur |
29 |
|
8 |
Pegula |
34 |
|
9 |
Gauff |
34 |
|
10 |
Sakkari |
41 |
|
11 |
Kudermetova |
41 |
|
12 |
QZheng |
51 |
|
13 |
Garcia |
51 |
|
14 |
Kasatkina |
67 |
|
15 |
Haddad Maia |
67 |
|
16 |
Bencic |
67 |
|
17 |
Potapova |
81 |
|
18 |
Samsonova |
101 |
|
19 |
KaPliskova |
101 |
|
20 |
Muchova |
101 |
|
21 |
Andreeva |
101 |
|
22 |
Svitolina |
126 |
|
23 |
Kvitova |
126 |
|
24 |
Keys |
126 |
|
25 |
Trevisan |
151 |
|
26 |
Teichmann |
151 |
|
27 |
Stephens |
151 |
|
28 |
Azarenka |
151 |
|
29 |
Alexandrova |
151 |
|
30 |
Mertens |
201 |
|
31 |
Linette |
201 |
|
32 |
LFernandez |
201 |
|
33 |
Cocciaretto |
201 |
|
34 |
Begu |
201 |
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