Wimbledon Men 2024

Young blood. Finally!

The awful tyranny of 1980’s-born players at Wimbledon was broken by a player from the 2000’s – Carlos Alcaraz.  And his primary rival Jannik Sinner, along with Holger Rune, Ben Shelton and Jack Draper are also from the 2000’s.  Will these new superstars squelch the tall skinny 90’s and consign them to mothballed also-rans?

No player born in the 1990’s has have ever won men’s Wimbledon.  It could be the first winner-less decade since Wimbledon began. There have been some close calls for the 1990’s – Raonic, Kyrgios, Berrettini – but if the decade is to be salvaged it might need to come from Medvedev, Zverev, Hurkacz, or Fritz.

Likely? Probably not…

 

First Quarter

Jannik Sinner is #1.  It feels a little strange.  Despite my jibes at 90’s players, he too fits the tall and skinny mold.  But he is more complete somehow than his slight elders. His ground strokes are powerful and reliable off both sides.  His movement is faultless.  His serve is dangerous.  His volleys are improving, and his killer instinct is a dagger made of ice.  To boot, he’s just seized his first grass title in Halle.  No wonder the bookies have him at #1.  If I could pick (and chew) the tiniest of nits, it would be to say that he doesn’t have the flair of Alcaraz.  Where Alcaraz thrives on emotion and creativity, Sinner is both Borg and the Borg.  It recalls that great rivalry: the stoic Borg versus the volcanic McEnroe – are we seeing the continuation in Sinner vs. Alcaraz, 40 years later?

Jannik will take some beating to keep him from the trophy.

But he’s not alone in this quarter.  His skinny-legged countryman, Matteo Berrettini, could be the most formidable of possible second round opponents.  The stupendously handsome Boss model was finalist here just three years ago.  He’s unseeded, plagued by injury, and on the perpetual comeback trail, but no one will be happy to face him. He’s also popular and affable, the heir perhaps to Del Potro’s fandom. It could be a mighty upset, and I’m predicting an Italian in the third round!

Djokovic’s inclusion in the draw (despite hasty recovery from knee surgery) has relegated Daniil Medvedev to fifth seed.  Medvedev seems to improve his showing every year and he made the semis last year.  He’ll need to win this quarter and this half to keep that going.  His serving stats have taken a dip this year, but I’d be loathe to count him out.  He can skate across the grass like a splayed stick-insect while his low penetrating strokes keep him relevant.

This quarter is fairly dense with grass talent, sporting Griekspoor (seeded 27), Shapovalov, Shelton (14), Dimitrov (10), Mannarino (22), and Struff.  Seeing any of their names emerge from the quarter would not cause vapours.  The booming serve and exuberant leaping of Ben Shelton recall another American, Pete Sampras, and he fared not badly at SW19 – seven titles.  Shelton may yet be unpolished, but the eye of Mordor will be upon him.

JSinner def DMedvedev

 

Second Quarter

Perhaps the greatest injustice created by Djokovic’s inclusion is the placement of Carlos Alcaraz (3) in Sinner’s half.  It deprives us of the final that I think most would want to see – Sin v Alc, Sinnaraz, Alcarinner??  Alcaraz electrified the tennis world last year with his win over seven-time champion Djokovic in an immoderate and breath-taking five-set final. We were abuzz like a bear-spooked hive.  Carlos has only added to his legend by lurching through an uncertain spring, only to soar to his third slam title, this one on clay at Roland Garros three weeks ago.

Statistically, Alcaraz is throwing down markers worthy of Borg and Nadal. His three slams by age 21 are surpassed only by Becker, Wilander, Borg, Rosewall, and… Ashley Cooper(?).  If he can claim two of the next three he’ll perch alone atop the rock pile.  Two years ago he was the youngest ever yearend #1, and that goes back to the 1870’s.  Sinner is good – his numbers look like Connors, McEnroe, Edberg – so yes, very good, but Alcaraz is in the elitest of the elite – a generational talent.  Both Sinner and Alcaraz enter this Wimbledon with 14 pro titles won, and their head-to-head is a near tie at 5-4(Alc), but Alcaraz is two years younger.  His trajectory makes the head spin for a tennis geek like me.

Are there other players in this quarter? 

Ugo Humbert (16), Tommy Paul (12), Frances Tiafoe (29), Alexander Bublik (29), are decent on grass.  Roberto Bautista Agut deserves an honorable mention, despite his age.  As for the other top-eight seed Casper Ruud (8), for all his brilliance on clay and occasionally hard court, he is a disaster on grass.

Alcaraz def TPaul

 

Third Quarter

This quarter is led by Alexander Zverev (4) and Andrey Rublev (6).  Neither has been past the quarters at Wimbledon. The only other quarter-finalist here is Taylor Fritz (13).  Rublev has not been his rock-steady self since being defaulted in Dubai.  His self-immolating tendencies do not seem to be flagging, and his game is suffering for it.

Alexander Zverev is fresh off a second slam final, this one at Roland Garros, and his star would seem to be rising.  But grass has proved a puzzle that is not quite solved. Still his form is formidable. 

Taylor Fritz is hitting his grass court stride and is into the Eastbourne final this weekend.  Likewise Seb Korda (20) showed off some grass court chops by making the s’Hertogenbosch final two weeks ago, and Lorenzo Musetti (25) made the London final last weekend. Of course there’s Alejandro Tabilo (24) who is also in a grass final this weekend. And then there’s Jack Draper (28) who beat no less than Alcaraz in running to the title in Stuttgart.  Stefanos Tsitsipas (11) lurks here as well so this quarter is not short on talent.

But which of the suitors will make his first Wimbledon semi?  For me Draper, Fritz, and Zverev look the most likely but they’re all in the same half of this quarter.

AZverev def Musetti

 

Fourth Quarter

I’m half-expecting a last-minute withdrawal from Novak Djokovic (2).  He was under the knife for the meniscus in his knee just three weeks ago.  Granted this is not nearly as severe as tendon repair, but one wonders about the wisdom of risking his future on slippery grass. It makes me question if he cares more about another Wimbledon title or about his (apparently) stated goal of winning the Olympic gold on clay in six weeks time. A slip on grass could seriously derail that life-time achievement. Then again, this may be his last, best chance to claim another slam title and get to sole possession of #25 before the gates permanently close. I can understand why he wants to play.

If Novak does play, he will have to be favoured for several matches at least.  He’s blessed with an unthreatening draw until possibly Rune, Khachanov, or Eubanks in the fourth round.  Christopher Eubanks made quarters here last year but hasn’t done much else. Karen Khachanov (21) also has a quarter showing here and is close to a top-flight player. Holger Rune (15) is an immense talent, the same age as Alcaraz, but hasn’t quite seemed able to harness the demons that haunt him.

Across the way, Alex de Minaur (9) is having a career year that included the grass title in s’Hertogenbosch. Felix Auger Aliassime (17) has slipped a bit since making the quarters three years ago, but Roman Safiullin was a quarter-finalist last year.

Perhaps the most serious threat comes from Hubert Hurkacz (7).  Hurkacz is a former semi-finalist and is at a career-high ranking.  His serve is arguably best on tour (since Isner and Raonic) and he will be nigh on impossible to break on grass.  He would seriously challenge a healthy Djokovic, and this quarter is full of opportunity.

Hurkacz def Djokovic

 

Semis

Alcaraz def JSinner

Hurkacz def AZverev

 

Final

Alcaraz def Hurkacz

The open smile of Alcaraz has me hoping youth will not be wasted on the young.

 

Expert picks

Alcaraz (3) – Joel Drucker, Matt Fitzgerald, Jon Levey
JSinner (3) – Steve Tignor, Stephanie Livaudais, Liya Davidov
Hurkacz (1) – Peter Bodo
AZverev (1) – Ed McGrogan

 

Bookies

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 28 Jun 2024

1	JSinner	2.75
2	Alcaraz	3.6
3	Djokovic	4
4	AZverev	17
5	Hurkacz	17
6	JDraper	26
7	de Minaur	29
8	DMedvedev	34
9	TPaul	41
10	Dimitrov	41
11	Berrettini	41
12	Tsitsipas	51
13	Rune	51
14	Fritz	51
15	Rublev	67
16	Struff	81
17	SKorda	81
18	Shelton	101
19	CaRuud	101
20	Musetti	126
21	Khachanov	151
22	Humbert	151
23	Griekspoor	151
24	Auger Aliassime	151
25	Norrie	201
26	Bublik	201
27	Hijikata	251
28	Shapovalov	301
29	Cobolli	301
30	JThompson	351
31	Fils	351
32	ZZhang	401
33	Van de Zandschulp	401
34	Monfils	401
35	Darderi	401