Wimbledon Women 2024

The divas have gathered, the grass is fresh, the blades are out, the Venus Rosewater Dish beckons. Is there a favourite?  There are only three former champions in the draw, and while they may be among the top picks it’s dangerous to count on any of them: Kerber (past her prime), Rybakina (constantly sick), and Vondrousova (chronically unreliable).  So who will it be lifting the plate in two weeks’ time?

 

First Quarter

Iga Swiatek (1) is the top seed and has pretty much nailed down this slot across the board for the last two and a half years.  But grass is her least-accomplished surface.  She pulled out of her warm-up tournament citing emotional recuperation after her fifth slam crown and third consecutive at Roland Garros.  But there is cause for hope among the Swiatek-azzi. She made the quarters last year in a game effort against a surging Svitolina.  Her strokes should hold up well on grass, although I think she loses some of the movement advantage she enjoys on other courts.  It’s not impossible she could win this title, but I think there are other games more tailored for grass, like the flat groundies of Rybakina or the slices and craft of Jabeur.

Last year’s champ Marketa Vondrousova (seeded 6) has been consistently inconsistent.  She looked to be re-finding grass form at Berlin last week but slipped and had to bow out, clutching her hip.  If she’s uninjured her quick reflexes and offensive counter-punching could move her through this quarter, but perhaps more likely is a return to past Wimbledon form – she had only won one match here in four previous attempts before last year’s title run.

Beatriz Haddad Maia (20) has some grass court chops, as does Barbora Krejcikova (31) although mostly in doubles.  Danielle Collins (11) has been having a fine year, as evidenced by her seeding, but has only ever made one third-round here in five previous attempts.

I’ll be looking forward to a popcorn first-rounder between Jelena Ostapenko (11) and returning Ajla Tomljanovic – each possessing at least two quarters-or-deeper runs here. Nor should former champ Angelique Kerber be discounted.  If there’s anywhere she can phoenix again, it would be on the turf.

Swiatek def Vondrousova

 

Second Quarter

Elena Rybakina (4) would probably be my top pick for the Dish were it not for her perpetual battles with illness. Despite pulling out of three tournaments this year, she has somehow made five finals, picking up three titles.  The 2021 champ has a wonderfully even temperament and the vicious groundstrokes and serve to make playing her on grass a nightmare.  If she can avoid the flu and whatever else ails her I can see her sorting through this quarter like a mongoose in a nest of snakes.  Fingers crossed.

We could get a re-match of the 2022 final if Ons Jabeur (10) can make the quarters.  The Tunisian has made the last two finals here but it seems that lack of mental discipline, over-emotionalism, or just simply wanting it too much have stood in the way of victory.  I’m not loving the new sterner Jabeur.  She seems to have lost the joie de vivre that made her Minister of Happiness.  It looks like she’s trying to curb the joy, but I think that’s where she should dwell, instead of in the dark hole of expectation.  She’ll need to exhibit more patience to avoid a repeat of last year’s nervy, error-strewn final.

Jessica Pegula (5) returned to form by taking the title in Berlin last week.  It’s a tough quarter for her to break her quarter-final slam curse, now at 6, (but well behind Rublev’s 10!)  There’s some decent pedigree in this quarter, especially on grass: Wozniacki, Leylah Fernandez (30), Kalinskaya (17), Bouzkova, Samsonova (15), Golubic, Niemeier, Svitolina (21), Boulter (32), Tatjana Maria.  This might be the quarter for a surprise semi-finalist.

Rybakina def Jabeur

 

Third Quarter

The year-and-a-half-long hegemony between Swiatek and Sabalenka occupying the top two rankings was broken after the French by Coco Gauff, and that means we see Aryna Sabalenka with a “3” next to her name.  She’s been in the semis here the last two years.  Neither her strokes nor her stridey heavy-footedness look ideal for grass, yet so great are her power and concentration that she succeeds on the surface.  She was my pick for this title at the start of 2024, and I haven’t seen much to dissuade from that stance.

A second-rounder against the talented Donna Vekic could be a challenge, and the fourth round could produce Mirra Andreeva (24).  The precocious Andreeva is still just 17 and is coming off her first major semi-final at last month’s Roland Garros.  She made second week here in her debut last year, so if they both make the fourth round, Sabalenka-Andreeva could be a match-of-the-tournament candidate.

Andreeva could have a rocky ride however, especially if she confronts last year’s French finalist Karolina Muchova in the second round. Muchova’s variety and volleying proclivities look ideally suited for grass and indeed she has twice made the quarters at SW19.  She’s just returning to form and is notoriously frail, so I would have to put my money on Andreeva, but Muchova really is capable of anything.

Daria Kasatkina (14) is a multi-talented player, as is Qinwen Zheng (8).  Zheng appears to be in a bit of hang-over from her run to the AO final in January and has only made third round in Wimbledon.

Popcorn first-rounder of the quarter goes to Ekaterina Alexandrova (22) versus Emma Raducanu.  Alexandrova is a decent grass player and made fourth round last year.  Former US Open champ Raducanu needs no introduction and looked good-ish last week as she returns to form this year.  She made fourth round on her slam-debut here in 2021.  The winner of this match could very well make the quarters.

Sabalenka def Alexandrova

 

Fourth Quarter

Coco Gauff has been strangely excluded from talk of the Big Three on the WTA, yet here she is at #2.  She was bundled out of the tournament last year in the first round by a bristling Sofia Kenin, but who can forget the splash she made here as a 15-year old in 2019 with a run to the second week?  I’m a bit 60-40 on Gauff’s chances.  She hasn’t bettered that initial fourth-round run here and her grass pedigree has some spots. 

There’s a raft of former slam finalists in this quarter – Osaka, Pliskova, Stephens, Azarenka, Keys, Errani, Andreescu, and Paolini, yet for their own reasons, none look primed to take this quarter from Gauff.  Osaka is still on the comeback trail, and as good as she looked in holding match points on Swiatek at the French, she’s still unproven on grass.  Andreescu doesn’t look mentally dialed in to her US-Open-winning-form.  Victoria Azarenka (16) and Madison Keys (12) remain consistent performers – perhaps Keys on grass can be formidable.  And then there’s the irrepressible Jasmine Paolini (7).  Last months’ French Open runner-up made the semis of Eastbourne this week.  Will the smiles continue from this smiliest of pint-sized competitors?

Also in this quarter are Marta Kostyuk (18) and Emma Navarro (19), both having banner years.

Gauff def Keys

 

Semis

Any Rybakina pick must come with a thousand caveats about her health, yet…

Rybakina def Swiatek

Sabalenka def Gauff

Did I really pick the top four seeds?

 

Final

Just because Rybakina’s health is such a wild card…

Sabalenka def Rybakina

 

Expert picks

Sabalenka (3) – Stephanie Livaudais, Jon Levey, Liya Davidov
Swiatek (2) – Joel Drucker, Peter Bodo
Rybakina (1) – Steve Tignor
Osaka (1) – Ed McGrogan
Jabeur (1) – Matt Fitzgerald

 

Bookies

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 28 Jun 2024

1	Sabalenka	3.75
2	Swiatek	5
3	Rybakina	6
4	Gauff	8
5	Jabeur	15
6	Osaka	17
7	Pegula	21
8	Keys	21
9	MAndreeva	26
10	Raducanu	29
11	Vondrousova	41
12	Collins	41
13	QZheng	51
14	Kalinskaya	51
15	Paolini	67
16	Ostapenko	67
17	Haddad Maia	67
18	LFernandez	67
19	Boulter	67
20	Alexandrova	67
21	Svitolina	81
22	Sakkari	81
23	Kasatkina	81
24	Azarenka	81
25	Shnaider	101
26	Muchova	101
27	VKudermetova	101
28	Samsonova	126
29	Garcia	126
30	Andreescu	126
31	Vekic	151
32	Siniakova	151
33	KaPliskova	151
34	Navarro	151
35	Krejcikova	151
36	Badosa	151