US Open Men 2025 Preview

Sincaraz? Alcarinner?  Whatever you call it there’s no denying the duopoly ruling men’s tennis.  They’ve won the last seven slams, and lead the rankings and the points race by huge margins.  They’ve been staging some epic finals this year, Cincinnati’s retirement notwithstanding. Will we be treated to another epic or can someone else worm into the final – maybe a Shelton, Fritz, or dare I say, Djokovic?

 

First Quarter

Jannik Sinner will have been #1 for 65 straight weeks by the time the next US Open champion is crowned.  But that streak is in jeopardy.  If Alcaraz wins this tournament he will regain the #1 ranking.  It’s a little unfair to Sinner perhaps since he didn’t get to play three months in spring.  I suspect his grip on #1 would be firmer if he had.  Both players are brilliant. Sinner is more consistent, and Alcaraz has a higher ceiling with more flash and panache in his game.  But it is Sinner’s consistency that makes it so difficult to pick against him.  Barring illness, like he suffered in the Cincinnati final, it’s almost impossible to imagine he could lose before the final.  No one but Alcaraz can withstand the Sinner barrage of power and clean winners from the baseline.  He plays like Lendl from the 1980’s.  He’s been in the last four slam finals, winning three of them.  In the one he lost he held match points – one point from a Sinner-slam.  He seems at his best on hard courts.  Is there any rational argument to pick against him for the title?

Tommy Paul (seeded 14) and Jack Draper (5) may stand the best chances to advance from this quarter if Sinner should falter. Paul has been in the fourth round here the last two years, while Draper has equalled that but went all the way to the semis last year – a loss to Sinner.  Even as a one-two punch, I doubt they’ll soften up Sinner much.  Maybe Gabriel Diallo can serve a wrench into the works.

Sinner def Draper

 

Second Quarter

Alexander Zverev (3) is the favourite in his section.  The other top seeds here are Alex De Minaur (8), Karen Khachanov (9), and Andrey Rublev (15) – all immensely capable players who could go on a deep run.  De Minaur has really upped his game in the last year and a half, transforming from a consistent top-20 or -30 player into a consistent top-tenner.  He’s got blinding-speed and huge heart, but still seems hampered by lack of power.  He’s now been to five slam quarters without ever going further.  That’s a tie for third in the Open Era since 1968 (Guy Forget – 5, Tommy Robredo – 7) but still only half the number posted by Rublev.

Rublev has immensely solid and powerful ground strokes but seems to lack variety, and that predictability gives the very best players an edge over him.  He’s slipped from being a perennial top tenner the last five years, to a ranking in the teens.  I feel uncertain if I should get too enthusiastic about quarter-final showings in Canada and Cincinnati.

Khachanov has six yearend rankings in the teens, and has dipped in and out of the top-ten several times.  He’s back there now, on the back of making the quarters at Wimbledon and the final in Toronto.  He’s made slam semis before and is a legitimate threat for this section.

But so is Zverev, who is becoming known for his deep runs at slams that fall just a little short.  He’s been to slam semis nine times, including three finals.  Despite two Tour Finals trophies and an Olympic gold, he seems unable to get over the line in slam finals.  Being sandwiched between generations of all-time greats likely doesn’t help.  He’s been ‘best of the rest’ for a few years now.

Zverev def Khachanov

 

Third Quarter

Taylor Fritz (4) has been the best of the Americans for several years now and made headlines last year when he made the final of this tournament.  He didn’t look like much of a threat to Sinner in the final, but his fine play has continued and he’s become a fixture at world #4.  But cracks in his domination of American tennis may be starting to appear.  He’s now at 6^th in the yearly race, behind compatriot Ben Shelton who is at #4.  Can Taylor make another deep run?

Also in this section is Frances Tiafoe (17), who despite so-so results elsewhere has been making a habit of deep runs at his home slam.  He’s been to the second week the last five years, making semis twice.

Hampering the efforts of the Americans may well be Novak Djokovic (7).  It was only two years ago, (and for a decade and half before that), that the sight of Djokovic’s name in the draw would have inspired me to pencil him straight into the semis, regardless of who else might be there.  But the withers of age have finally seemed to catch him. 

Granted he’s made semis of all three slams this year, taking out Alcaraz and Zverev along the way.  So ignore him at your peril.  But it seems when he gets to the semis, he’s spent.  The resiliency of youth has departed and the betrayals of senescence have begun.  He’s been granted a quarter in which another slam semi looks likely, at least possible. If he makes it, it would be his 53^rd, a number unsurpassed by men or women.  By comparison, Federer is second among Open era men with 46, and Evert is currently tied with Novak at 52.  Ken Rosewall also has 52 semis if so-called ‘professional slams’ from the pre-open era are counted.

Especially heartening for Novak may be his match record against Fritz: 10-0.

Djokovic def Fritz

 

Fourth Quarter

People are talking about Carlos Alcaraz’s inconsistency. By this they tend to mean that he occasionally suffers an early loss and often loses a set in any given match before eventually winning – unlike the robotic decimation experienced by Sinner’s victims.  The flamboyant Spaniard definitely lives in a much more emotional landscape than we have any reason to suspect of Sinner.  But if inconsistency did exist, it seems to be vanishing rapidly.  Alcaraz has made the final of his last seven tournaments, winning five of them.  If he can combine this sort of consistency with his in-born brilliance, the tennis world is in trouble.  Not only do his accomplishments out-pace Sinner: five slams to four, eight 1000’s to four, his accomplishments at the same age are off the chart. 

At the age Carlos is now, Sinner had zero slams and only one 1000.  Nor had he made #1 in the world, something Alcaraz conquered long ago.  Sinner’s trajectory for accomplishment and greatness looks assured, but looking at the numbers, Alcaraz may be the best of all time.  He’s on a path for youthful accomplishment trod only by Borg and Nadal. If he can match Djokovic’s longevity, he’ll be the best of all time.  In short, I’m not worried about inconsistency from Alcaraz.

His section contains Daniil Medvedev (13) who has fallen sharply this year.  The three-time former finalist here (and 2021 winner) has a reasonable path to the fourth round, but there’s no guarantee he can find it.  Casper Ruud (12) was a finalist here in 2022 when Alcaraz won the title, but has only managed a single fourth round here since.

Possibly the most significant challenge could come from Ben Shelton (6).  Shelton has added consistency to his power game and just nabbed his first 1000 title, in Canada.  While I tend to think of him as an up and comer, he is already 22.  Granted that is still young, but it is the age when top male players often start to show their best tennis.  How much higher will he climb?  He may actually be the third best player at this US Open and could start to mount a serious challenge to Alcaraz and Sinner in coming years.  But at this stage, there’s still a significant gulf to the top two.

Alcaraz def Shelton

 

Semis and Final

Sinner def Zverev, Alcaraz def Djokovic

Barring illness or injury, I’m expecting an exciting final between Sinner and Alcaraz.  Most tennis fans will be hoping for the same.  The level these two bring is leaving the rest of the pack in the dust.  Wisdom from the pundits, podcasters, and bookies suggest that Sinner is the likely champion.  But I take a dissenting view.  Yes Sinner is a beast, a machine, on hard courts.  But the brilliance of Alcaraz is irrepressible and undeniable.  He will want revenge for the Wimbledon defeat.  Sinner is 31-4 for the year.  Alcaraz is an astonishing 39-2 in his last seven tournaments, 54-6 on the year.  I’m a Sinner fan and would love to see him win, but I’ll take the minority report.

Alcaraz def Sinner

 

Odds from Bet365.com on 22 Aug 2025

1	JSinner	2.1
2	Alcaraz	2.62
3	Djokovic	13
4	JDraper	19
5	AZverev	21
6	Shelton	21
7	Fritz	29
8	DMedvedev	51
9	Rune	67
10	DeMinaur	67
11	Tsitsipas	81
12	Tiafoe	101
13	Rublev	101
14	TPaul	101
15	Musetti	101
16	Mensik	101
17	Khachanov	101
18	Fonseca	101
19	CaRuud	126
20	Lehecka	126
21	Shapovalov	151
22	Nakashima	151
23	Medjedovic	151
24	SKorda	151
25	Cobolli	151
26	Bublik	151
27	Mpetshi Perricard	201
28	Michelsen	201
29	Humbert	201
30	Diallo	201
31	Davidovich Fokina	201
32	FCerundolo	201
33	Brooksby	201
34	Auger Aliassime	201