US Open Women 2025 Preview

Iga Swiatek has been ripping up the summer swing, winning Wimbledon and Cincinnati. She seems to be most pundits’ pick for the US Open title, including the bookies.  But are they right?  Aryna Sabalenka has been #1 all year and is still the most consistent performer, leading the yearly points race.  She’s the defending champion and seems at her best on hard court.  And then there’s Coco Gauff, who won here two years ago and added a second slam this year at Roland Garros.  She’s not been showing form, but that has proved little impediment in the past.  These three are the top three seeds and the bookies have them as their top three picks, the only women with single digit odds.  So who will it be?

 

First Quarter

Aryna Sabalenka is the top seed and has a tour-leading three titles from seven finals this year. However the commentariat is looking slightly askance at her since she has not claimed a slam title.  Her biggest titles this year are the 1000s in Miami and Madrid, but she’s lost finals at the Aus Open, Roland Garros, and Indian Wells – three of the year’s biggest tournaments.  Is she really mentally weak in the big finals, or could it be that she just keeps running into inspired opponents?  She’s been the favourite at nearly every tournament she’s played for the past year, the hunted instead of the hunter.  As the world focuses on Iga’s incredible run of form, will Sabalenka have a chance to breathe and carry her best tennis all the way to the title?

Word is out that she has a tough draw, with Tauson seeded for the fourth round and Rybakina or Paolini for the quarters.  Clara Tauson (seeded 14) would be overlooked at peril.  Tauson is having a banner year and is at a career high.  She handed Sabalenka the worst defeat of her year (in Dubai), and recently took both Swiatek and Keys out of the Canada 1000.  But I expect Sabalenka to be sharp and on high alert if they should meet again.

Elena Rybakina (11) has been a top five player for much of the last three years and just defeated Sabalenka in Cincinnati to the loss of only five games.  This former Wimbledon champion can slug with the best.  She may look to be in better form than Sabalenka. But whereas Aryna has made at least the semis in New York the last four years, Rybakina has never been past the third round.  For whatever reason, Rybakina does not do well at this site.

Meanwhile, Jasmine Paolini (7) has been regaining the great form and joyful playing that took her to two slam finals last year.  She just finished runner-up to Swiatek in Cincinnati in a tight match that made her look like a US Open contender.  It was her first final since winning the Rome 1000 in May.  It’s taken her a little while to regroup from that home-court triumph but she is rounding into form nicely for a deep US Open run.  Sabalenka may be lucky that she can face only one of Paolini and Rybakina – who are seeded to meet each other in the fourth round.

Also worth watching in this quarter are 2021 champ Emma Raducanu, 2021 finalist Leylah Fernandez (31), Elise Mertens (19) who has been to the second week here five times, former Wimbledon champ Marketa Vondrousova, rising 17-year old Iva Jovic, and former top-tenner who’s having a strong summer Veronika Kudermetova (24).

Sabalenka def Paolini

 

Second Quarter

For me this is the crazy quarter.  A few months ago I would have pencilled in #4 seed Jessica Pegula straight to the semis.  She was runner-up at this tournament last year and has been nothing but solid the last few years, especially on US hard courts.  But she has been struggling for form and has had only one notable result since early April, an out-of-nowhere title on grass over Swiatek the week before Wimbledon.  So you can’t count her out.  Another fluke could happen, but overall it does not look promising.

Even if Pegula does make it to the fourth round, she could run into nemesis Belinda Bencic (16) who has four wins to no losses over Pegula and has been to US Open quarters or better three times.  Bencic did not look convincing in the warm-up events but was coming off a semi at Wimbledon and has generally had a strong return to tour this year after taking off most of last year to give birth.

Three-time former finalist Victoria Azarenka is near Pegula in the draw, but at age 36 does not look like much of a consistent threat.  Former Roland Garros finalist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is likewise nearby but unseeded. Liudmila Samsonova (17) is dangerous player who can catch fire at unexpected times, but does not seem to thrive at slams.

Emma Navarro (10) was very dependable in 2024 and hit a slam peak with a run to the semis at last year’s Open.  This year has been tougher as she’s managed back-to-back wins in only four tournaments.  Her place in the fourth round could be usurped by young Canadian sensation Victoria Mboko (22).

Mboko started the year ranked in the 300’s, but proceeded to win four consecutive challenger tournaments to gain more regular admission to the main tour.  She came through qualifying to make third round at the French and second round at Wimbledon and then exploded on the scene by parlaying a wildcard in Canada into her first title on the WTA main tour, a 1000 title no less.  Still only 18 (she turns 19 on Tuesday) a first round flame-out may be just as likely as a deep run.  Impressively she beat four slam champs on her way to the Canadian title.  Anything is possible

But she’ll have a tricky opener against former Roland Garros and Wimbledon titlist, Barbora Krejcikova, who is, remarkably, unseeded.  Krejcikova is particularly dangerous when she’s underestimated, and against a newly heralded prodigy, the stakes will be high.  This could be the most interesting match of the first round.

Rounding out the bottom quarter of this quarter are Jelena Ostapenko (25) and Mirra Andreeva (5).  Ostapenko is capable of absolutely anything.  When her go for broke style is on she is nigh unplayable, as her victories over both Sabalenka and Swiatek in Stuttgart this year show… not to mention her sterling 6-0 record over Swiatek.

Mirra Andreeva started the year with guns blazing and claimed back to back 1000 titles in Dubai and Indian Wells.  In that run she claimed two victories over both Swiatek and Rybakina and one over Sabalenka.  She looked ready to completely dominate the year but has come down to earth a little since then.  She made quarters at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon but has not won a match since, so will need to find form quickly if she is to go deep at this US Open.

None of these players look like a good bet to reach the semis, but Andreeva has at least proven fairly reliable at the slams.

Andreeva def Bencic

 

Third Quarter

The Coco Gauff (3) quarter opens with questions about Gauff’s form.  She lost first round at Wimbledon, again, and has struggled massively with double faults this year.  She’s just hired a technical coach to re-work her serve but I wonder if a half-rebuilt serve will stand up to the rigors of grand slam tennis.  On the one hand I have little faith she will go deep.  On the other, this is Coco Gauff we are talking about.  She is supremely fast and a superlative athlete who has managed to win two slam titles while hampered with two glaring weakness – her second serve and her forehand.  She is perfectly capable of learning a new service motion in no time flat and winning this title.  But how likely is it?  She’s won 5 matches after Wimbledon and could be on the verge of her best.

Her quarter features three aging champions who are (or may be) making their last US Open appearances: Petra Kvitova, Caroline Garcia, and Venus Williams.  I wish them all well and a final match win from any of them would be welcome, however I do not expect any to be close to contending for the championship.

Venus opens against Karolina Muchova (11) who has been to the semis the last two years.  Muchova has not had much form this year, but her variety and creativity on court are fun to watch and I wouldn’t mind a chance to see her shine.

Two-time former champ (and four-time slam winner) Naomi Osaka is the 23^rd seed and could provide a fourth-round challenge for Gauff.  The two have split their head to head 3-2 for Gauff and it’s even closer in sets, where Gauff leads by only 6-5.  Osaka may be finding some form as she just made the final at the Canada 1000.  Strangely, if she makes the quarters of a slam, she has always gone on to win that slam.  It’s somewhat alarming that she has only made the quarters four times – but such is the mystery.

Australian Open champ Madison Keys (6) is a former finalist in New York and could go deep again at a tournament she first played 14 years ago. Like Gauff, she’s won five matches since Wimbledon so a deep run could be in the offing.

Gauff def Keys

 

Fourth Quarter

There would seem little to threaten Iga Swiatek (2) in this quarter, but this is tennis, so anything is possible I guess. By seeding, her fourth round opponent should be Ekaterina Alexandrova (14), who has never been past the third round here.  Likely quarter final opponents are Elina Svitolina (12) or Amanda Anisimova (8).

Anisimova is a better player than the 60 60 shellacking she received from Swiatek in the Wimbledon final might suggest.  If they should meet again, hopefully Amanda is less nervous.  Whether or not she has recovered is anyone’s guess.  If not, Svitolina may well make the quarter-final.

Swiatek has been nearly unstoppable for the last two months and history has shown that she only gets tougher when she gets on a roll.  I doubt there is anyone to thwart her in this quarter.

Swiatek def Anisimova

 

Semis and Final

Despite Swiatek’s commanding 11-4 lead in their head to head, Gauff has beaten Swiatek in their last three meetings.  I’ll expect it to be a knock-down-drag-out fight, but give Swiatek the edge based on current form.  Sabalenka should have an easier time reaching the final.

In a Sabalenka-Gauff final, I’d have to give the edge to Gauff because of the two slam finals they’ve played – both victories for Gauff.  But if it’s a Sabalenka-Swiatek final, I’d probably go with Sabalenka.  And this in spite of Swiatek’s better form, leading head to head record, and unbeaten 6-0 record in slam finals.  I think Sabalenka is still the best player on hard courts and has been a little unlucky to lose so many finals this year.  If she keeps giving herself the chance, she’s bound to win a close one.

Sabalenka def Andreeva, Swiatek def Gauff

Sabalenka def Swiatek

 

Odds from Bet365.com on 22 Aug 2025

1	Swiatek	3.5
2	Sabalenka	4
3	Gauff	8
4	Rybakina	12
5	MAndreeva	12
6	Osaka	17
7	Mboko	21
8	Keys	21
9	Anisimova	23
10	Raducanu	26
11	Pegula	26
12	Tauson	51
13	Svitolina	51
14	Paolini	51
15	Vondrousova	81
16	Samsonova	81
17	Navarro	81
18	Muchova	81
19	Collins	81
20	Bencic	81
21	Shnaider	101
22	Krueger	101
23	Krejcikova	101
24	Kalinskaya	101
25	Alexandrova	101
26	Noskova	126
27	Kostyuk	126
28	Kasatkina	126
29	LFernandez	126
30	Vekic	151
31	Sakkari	151
32	Potapova	151
33	Ostapenko	151
34	Kenin	151
35	Azarenka	151