2013 Men’s Tennis and 2014 Predictions

2013 Men’s Tennis and 2014 Predictions

No one I’ve heard of predicted a year of domination by Rafael Nadal for 2013.  But that is what we got… aside from that blip at Wimbledon… and the yearend swing…  Can Nadal do it again in 2014 or has he woken a sleeping Djiant?  In the year he turns 28, will Rafa start to lose a step?

Is Roger Federer REALLY going to all Walking Dead on us and win another Wimbledon title?  Will the weight of titles won gather Andy Murray’s motivation or at his midriff?  Is Juan Martin Del Potro finally back … maybe… hopefully?  And are Ferrer, Berdych, Tsonga, and Gasquet forEVER consigned to be also-rans?

Rafael Nadal

What Nadal did in 2013 was both unexpected and magnificent:  2 slam singles, 5 masters shields, 10 titles, 75-7 win-loss record.  It’s tempting to look at the 8 French Opens, the 8 Monte Carlos, the 8 Barcelonas, and the 7 Italians, and say he is a clay court specialist.  And it’s true, he is.  But he is also much more than that.  He has the most complete resume of any open era player – all the slam titles, the Olympics title, the Davis Cup, and the biggest collection of masters shields.  The only small holes to fill are the yearend championships and maybe, for the really picky, the Miami title (a title whose importance has been largely diluted by its roughly co-equal status with Indian Wells).

What’s most surprising about this year is that he started it after a 7-month lay off.  I really think that no one saw coming what this year became for Nadal. With now his 3^rd stint as yearend #1 and 13 slam titles so far, he is definitely in the GOAT (greatest of all time) conversation.

Although only 27 (till June) he is notable for his longevity.  This year he broke a 4-way tie with Borg, Sampras, and Federer for 8 consecutive years with a slam title.  He stands alone at 9.

In the slam derby, he’s already 3^rd overall, and equally impressive are his accumulations by age:

Slam titles at age:	25	26	27	28	29	30
Borg	11	11	11	11	11	11
Federer	11	12	15	16	16	17
Sampras	10	11	12	13	13	13
Nadal	10	11	13	??	??	??
Gonzales	7	8	9	11	12	13
Rosewall	8	10	12	15	16	18
Laver	8	9	11	14	15	18

This table includes the 3 professional slams from 1927-1967.

Nadal is performing very well for his age.  I’m not a great advocate of slam totals as indicator of GOAT—there were so many years when the best players couldn’t play them, but if we’re in the conversation I am ‘for’ considering the professional slams in player’s total counts – which makes Rosewall the overall leader with 23, Laver second at 19, and pegs Tilden and Gonzales at 15 each.

Nadal might not take over the slam title record and the big asterisk is that only 5 (so far) of his slams are off clay.  He has also not excelled at holding the #1 computer ranking, although he is 6^th on the list, and counting.

Year end 2013	Weeks at #1
Federer	302
Sampras	286
Connors	270
Lendl	268
McEnroe	170
Nadal	115
Borg	109
Agassi	101
Djokovic	101

Breaking down the ranking statistics a bit, he’s the 3^rd youngest to reach 400 weeks in the top 10 of the computer rankings, after Becker and Borg.  If he stays in the top 10 through this year, he’ll be the 2^nd youngest to reach 500 weeks after Becker.  Meanwhile, Federer will be the 3^rd youngest (out of 4) to reach 600 weeks on Feb 3.

Looking at just the #1 ranking, Nadal was the 5^th youngest to reach 100 weeks at #1 behind Sampras, Connors, Federer, and Borg (in that order), but is 6^th out of 6 to reach 110 weeks.  At the much less strenuous level of youngest to reach 50 weeks, the top five are Hewitt, Courier, Sampras, Connors, McEnroe.

Youngest to reach:	50 weeks @ #1	100 weeks @ #1	300 weeks in Top 10	400 weeks in Top 10	500 weeks in Top 10	600 weeks in Top 10
First	Hewitt	Sampras	Becker	Becker	Becker	Lendl
Second	Courier	Connors	Borg	Borg	Sampras	Connors
Third	Sampras	Federer	Wilander	Nadal	Lendl	Federer*
Fourth	Connors	Borg	Nadal	Sampras	Connors	Agassi
Fifth	McEnroe	Nadal	Chang	Edberg	Federer

* as of Feb 3, 2014

Looking at the time span from first and last week at #1, Nadal is 7^th but will overtake McEnroe in February.

Time span between first and last weeks #1	Weeks
Connors	466
Federer	457
Agassi	439
Sampras	397
Lendl	389
McEnroe	288
Nadal	281
Borg	206
Djokovic	118

So Nadal is not overly strong in the #1 statistics, but he does better in considering professional titles won, where he is already tied for 8^th in the open era.

Titles won (open era)	Titles	Rank
Connors	110	1
Lendl	94	2
McEnroe	77	3
Federer	77	3
Borg	64	5
Sampras	64	5
Vilas	63	6
Agassi	60	8
Nadal	60	8
Djokovic	41	14
Murray	28	24

Looking at titles won by age, Nadal is the 5^th to win at least 60 titles in the yearend at which he was 27. 

Open era titles at  yearend age:	25	26	27	28	29	30	31
Borg	64	64	64	64	64	64	64
Connors	62	72	80	86	90	97	101
Lendl	53	62	70	73	83	88	91
McEnroe	59	67	70	70	72	75	76
Nadal	46	50	60	??	??	??	??
Federer	45	53	57	61	66	70	76
Sampras	44	52	56	61	63	63	64

Looking at match win-loss records, Nadal’s case becomes stronger.  He is 3^rd in the open era for matches won by yearend age 27, tied with Edberg, and behind Lendl and McEnroe.

Matches won at  yearend age:	25	26	27	28	29	30	31
Borg	606	608	609	609	609	609	609
Lendl	584	657	731	772	851	905	960
Connors	511	577	656	730	791	869	921
McEnroe	573	644	666	700	730	777	810
Nadal	541	583	658	??	??	??	??
Edberg	529	597	658	718	760	806	806
Federer	483	551	617	678	743	807	878
Vilas	439	500	570	641	712	788	844
Sampras	502	557	618	658	700	735	762

There’s been some talk about Nadal having one of the best years ever in professional tennis in 2013.  But while Nadal’s year was certainly magnificent, it was only 16^th best in the Open era (since 1968) by win-loss percentage.  I’ve also tracked the best consecutive year percentages for up to 10 years.  So for the truly stats-obsessed, check this out:

McEnroe had the best year in the open era in 1984.  Federer rules at best in 2, 3, and 4 consecutive year stints.  Borg gets the nod for best 5 years, and Connors is best for 6, 7, 8, and 10 years.  Lendl edges Connors for 9 best years.  The numbers are derived from the ATP website.

Setting all this and the slam title count aside, I will believe Nadal is a serious contender for GOAT by gaining another yearend #1.  Nadal already has 2008, 2010, and 2013.  A couple more years and his record will be unavoidable.  On the other hand, if Djokovic should pull off another few yearend #1’s he would have to be considered as well.  For now I still consider Nadal’s record just a notch behind the topmost class of Federer, Sampras, Borg, Rosewall, Laver, Gonzales, Kramer, Budge, and Tilden; although a 4^th yearend #1 might change that for me.

What should we expect in 2014?  The simple answer is another dominant clay season and a record 9^th title at the French.  But it may not be that easy.  I do expect Nadal to have the best clay record overall, but I suspect Djokovic will be very determined at the French this year.  I expect an epic struggle that could very well go Novak’s way, but I have to give the edge to Nadal.

At the hardcourt slams I give that same edge to Djokovic… although we have seen at US Open 2013 what a flame-on Nadal can do…  But then there’s Murray to consider… so on balance I don’t think Nadal is the favourite at AO or USO.  Wimbledon is a toss-up.  I expect Nadal to be as motivated as a penguin mounting an iceberg with an orca in pursuit when it comes to fighting for the Holy Grail at Wimbledon, but he’ll face some very stiff competition from a this-is-my-last-chance Federer, Djokovic, the defending son of the homeland, and even Del Potro who has come so close on grass in the last two years.

The thing is, even if Nadal can maintain his 2013 level, I think Djokovic will overtake him.  The motivation momentum has swung to Djokovic I think.  But it’s probably too close to call.  All that said, another hardcourt slam is definitely possible for Nadal.

Novak Djokovic

The beast has been awakened.  Djokovic seemed to be slumbering through a torpid reign as #1 in 2013.  He’d stormed the bastille in 2011, then found he could hold the castle in 2012.  In 2013 he seemed to be fattening himself at table, ignoring pretenders to the throne, only to discover, to his dismay, that the kingdom was lost, even if he won the US Open.  He shook off his languor and swept the yearend swing without the loss of a match, becoming the first man ever to win the two yearend Masters 1000 titles and the yearend championships.

Can he carry it forward into 2014?  I make him the favourite at the Australian, but only by a whisker.  There are murmurs in the Nadal camp about wanting the double career slam (two of each), and Nadal is sure to be refreshed after a few weeks break from the game.  A refreshed Nadal is a dangerous Nadal, as we saw in 2013. But after the disappointments of 2013, I expect Djokovic to be uber-motivated, and give him the edge. 

The same may hold true in Paris.  I think Djokovic may carry the motivational edge – it’s tough to say what being an 8-time defending champion is like… maybe it kicks Nadal to a whole new level??  But much as I think Djokovic has an excellent chance in Paris, maybe his best chance ever, the odds still have to be with Nadal.

Wimbledon is opaque in my crystal ball, and I think the US Open SHOULD favour Djokovic, even though he’s only been successful there once in 5 trips to the final.

Djokovic racked up 7 titles this year, a banner year, exceeded only by Nadal.  For 2014, I think he may wrest that crown from Nadal.

2013 yearend titles	Titles
Nadal	10
Djokovic	7
Murray	4
Del Potro	4
Gasquet	3

Overall I think Djokovic may be the strongest candidate for yearend #1 next year, although it could be incredibly close with Nadal, or even Murray.

Andy Murray

Murray had an extraordinary first half of the year, so perhaps he can be excused for pulling up lame in the second half.  He started with a game runner-up performance in Melbourne, his third unsuccessful trip to the final in the last 4 years.  Surely his time there is coming soon.

He recovered from match point down in the final of Miami to thwart Ferrer, but then had rather middling results on clay before pulling out of the French, a harbinger of things to come.  But with some time to recuperate he pulled it together to knock off two straight tournaments comprising 12 matches on grass, including Wimbledon.  That marked the fourth straight trip to the final in the last four GS events he’d played, plus an Olympics victory.  The world seemed his oyster.

A year after getting the slam monkey off his back, he rid his country of the 77 year Wimbledon jinx (for males, in singles).  He was understandably elated and made a game effort to defend his US crown, but went down without much struggle to Wawrinka in the QFs.  I suspected motivation might be the problem, but it turns out back problems were at least partly to blame and surgery was performed.

What will 2014 hold?  The example of Nadal notwithstanding, I doubt he will be at full steam for the Australian.  He should play into form during the Indian Wells / Miami swing.  After that, clay has not been a strength, but he certainly stands an excellent chance on grass.

I think he should be the slightest of favourites at Wimbledon since he’s the defending champion and has a kind of home court advantage with the crowd.  He’s also deadly good on grass.  Depending on the day, I might give the edge to a really motivated Nadal or Djokovic, and we don’t yet know what Murray’s like defending a title. 

There’s an outside chance Murray could mount a campaign for yearend #1.  He’s never shown the week-in week-out consistency to seriously challenge the top, but if he’s truly healthy, the Wimbledon title may have given him the confidence to excel everywhere.  It seems unlikely to me; his past record does not bear it out the way, say, Lendl’s did, who was racking up 10-title years and deep win percentages before the slam break through.  If he were in a weaker mini-era, like between the Sampras and Federer eras when Kuerten and Hewitt were all but regent kings, Murray might have a chance, but in the current shark tank, a few more slam titles is a much more realistic career expectation.

Roger Federer

The mighty have indeed fallen.  Or at least, they’ve aged.  After regaining #1 for a time last year, Federer finds himself at #6 on the yearend computer, a spot he last occupied in 2002.  It’s certainly been a good run and I won’t be counting him out of the slam title derby.  But I do believe regaining the #1 ranking is out of reach for him now.  In the ATP computer era, no one has held the yearend #1 ranking after age 29.  Moreover, the dominant trend after several years at the top has been a slow fade.

There are a few seeming exceptions.  McEnroe and Agassi both fell out of the top 10 at yearend age 27, and both came back to rejoin it.  The difference is that they did not fall out after age 30 and then rejoin.  Federer could rally in 2014 and maybe get back to yearend #4, but anything higher would be unprecedented.

But that doesn’t mean he’s not a strong contender for Wimbledon.  Federer may be at his most potent on grass and would dearly like to be the sole holder of 8 Wimbledon titles (good bye William Renshaw and Pete Sampras) and could well pull it off in the supernova burst of his dying career.  However, I rate him no higher than anyone else in the Big 4 at Wimbledon for 2014.

He’s made some noise about feeling good and challenging for the Australian title, but I would be very surprised if he could overcome Djokovic, Murray, and Nadal on hard at the slams this year.  And the French, despite 5 finals there, is now firmly out of reach, even if I have made him my 4^th favourite there for this year.

I think he may do better than last year at smaller events.  He only claimed one title in 2013, making him just the 3^rd man in the Open era to win titles in 13 consecutive years.  I’d say he’s a good bet to tie Lendl at 14 straight years with a title.

Open era titles	Consecutive years with at least one title	Total title span (years)
Lendl	14	14
Connors	13	18
Federer	13	13
Edberg	12	12
Becker	12	12
Sampras	11	13
Chang	11	13
Agassi	(10)*	19
McEnroe	(9)	14

* Vilas, Gottfried, and Gerulaitis all won for 11 straight years, and there are others with 10 and 9 years.

It’s also possible he could join Lendl as second in the Masters 1000 title count.  The Masters 1000 events have a long history, under various names, dating back to 1970 and the Grand Prix tour.  The history of the titles is available on sites like Wikipedia.  One common denominator is that there have always been 9 of them up for grabs each year.  Here’s a summation:

Connors was in one final that was not played; I gave him half credit for the title.

Looking at this chart I’m always amazed at how relatively poorly Sampras fared… in some ways he really was a slam specialist. 

Federer is also only the second man in the open era to win at least 45 matches for 13 consecutive seasons.  Connors is first with 16 seasons.  Federer should be able to win 45 matches in 2014, but I actually won’t be surprised if he doesn’t.  Overall I expect him to stay in the top 10, about holding on to his current ranking; and he has a small chance at the Wimbledon title.

David Ferrer

Ferrer appears to have had a better year than last, finishing at #3 on the ATP computer, but in fact he amassed 705 less computer points than last year.  In 2012 he won a tour-high 7 titles, in 2013 only 2.  One very significant achievement however was making his first slam final, at the French.  At 31 years old, he truly has saved the best for the end of his career.

In 2013 he troughed a little mid-year but recovered for a strong end of year push, culminating with the attempted defense of his Masters 1000 title in Paris where he beat Berdych and Nadal before falling to Djokovic in the final.

After winning 19 slam matches in 2013, second best after Djokovic, what can be expected in 2014?  I think he’ll have a reasonable shot at SF at the French, QF at the hard court slams, and 4R at Wimbledon.  Elsewhere I’d expect a title or two, and probably a small slip in the rankings.

2013 Slam singles rounds	Rounds won
Djokovic	24
Ferrer	19
Murray	17
Nadal	14
Federer	13
Gasquet	13
Wawrinka	12
Berdych	11
Youzhny	11

Juan Martin Del Potro

Del Potro finished at #5 on the computer, right where he was in 2009, just after winning the US Open.  In the heady days of his early career, many thought he might challenge the establishment (Federer & Nadal) for supremacy.  But that role has fallen mostly to Djokovic, and somewhat to Murray.  Does Delpo have the goods to challenge the top?

In 2013 he won 4 titles, tied with Murray for 3^rd place.  All 4 of his wins were at the 500 point level, which is quite good.  He was also runner-up at two 1000 point tournaments, and pushed Djokovic in a thrilling 5-set semi-final at Wimbledon.

2013 ATP Tournaments	Points for winner	# tournaments
Grand slam events	2000	4
World Tour Finals	1500	1
Masters 1000	1000	9
ATP 500	500	11
ATP 250	250	40
Challenger tournaments	80 - 125	149
Futures tournaments	18 - 35	lots

For 2014, I think Del Potro will likely join the top 4.  I give him an outside shot at one of the slam titles, probably Wimbledon is the most open to interlopers.  He may have a better chance finally winning his first Masters 1000 title.  Overall I expect slightly better results than last year, and much better performances at the slams, where he won only 8 matches in 2013.

Other Notables

Tomas Berdych finished the year at #7, where he has hovered for the last 4 years.  He did not win any titles in 2013, but I’ll pick him to add at least one to his career tally of 8 during 2014.  He did reasonably well at the slams, QF in Australia and SF at USO.  It’s hard to see him advancing much more.  He’s already 28 and seems unlikely to penetrate the top 4 or 5.  Eventually he’ll start to lose ground to those coming up, but for now I expect little to change for his 2014 prospects.

Stanislas Wawrinka reaches a career high yearend #8 for 2013.  The highlights included a trip to the SF at the US Open and at the yearend championships.  He took out defending champion Murray in New York.  He also made the finals at the 1000 pointer in Madrid.  He played some of the most theatrical matches of the year in taking out Gasquet 8-6 in the fifth in the Roland Garros fourth round, and in losing 10-12 in the fifth to Djokovic in 4R in Australia.  If he can continue this sort of play he could push past the likes of Federer and Berdych in the rankings for 2014.  He’s 28 and won’t have too many more opportunities.  A slam runner-up performance in Australia, Paris, or New York would be a surprise but not unthinkable.

Richard Gasquet surprised me with his consistency in staying in the top 10 for the year.  He won 3 250 point titles, and his best result may have been the US Open SF, taking out Raonic and Ferrer along the way.  He also made SF at the Miami 1000.  Although only age 27, I don’t really see him moving up in 2014, and he could even drift slightly in the rankings.  Another slam SF would be a good achievement or maybe a 1000 title.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga slipped a little this year but just clung to the last spot in the top 10.  He holds the distinction of finishing in the computer top 10 five times, a record for non-slam winners shared with Ferrer, Nalbandian, Davydenko, and Henman.  However, if we dip into the pre-computer part of the Open era, Tom Okker is usually credited with 7 top 10 finishes from 1968-74. 

Top 10 yearend – Open era
7 times	Okker
5 times	Tsonga, Ferrer, Nalbandian, Davydenko, Henman
4 times	Berdych, Enqvist, Clerc, GMayer, Ramirez, Solomon, Dibbs
3 times	Gasquet, Coria, Rios, Mecir, Teltscher, Gottfried, Drysdale

That puts Tsonga on the short list for best player never to win a slam.  In fact, his win-loss record at the slams is best ever among non-slam winners in the open era, for those with at least 5 results.

Rank	Singles wins at slams – Open era	Wins	Losses	Rate
1	Tsonga	73	24	0.753
2	Ferrer	111	44	0.716
3	Okker	73	28	0.716
4	Nalbandian	86	36	0.705
5	Metreveli	53	23	0.697
8	Berdych	88	41	0.682
13	Cilic	49	24	0.671
15	Monfils	56	28	0.667
18	Wawrinka	69	35	0.663

So will he win one in 2014?  Probably not.  The competition is murderous.  And titles have not come easily to him; he only has 10 of any description.  Another one in 2014 should be expected and some slam quarter-finals.  If he’s going to alter his career arc, he’d best act quickly; at 28 time is running out.

Young-ish Guns

Milos Raonic (rank 11) turned 23 four days before yearend.  In today’s aging top 10, that counts as relative youth.  In the past, many players reached their peaks around 23, but the fierce crucible of competition is favouring more experience.  The depth of the talent pool is shrinking the window of time a player can enjoy at the top.  Raonic’s game certainly has room to mature.  The serve is galaxy-class, the backhand would not be out of place on a hacker.  The balance between these will conspire to keep him about where he is.  He did make a brief foray into the top 10 in 2013.  There may be small room for improvement in the mental game but I don’t see that as the main obstacle to greater success.  I keep expecting he will go farther than 2R at Wimbledon… maybe this year…

Kei Nishikori (rank 17) turned 24 just two days before yearend.  He won the 500 in Memphis and beat Federer on clay in Madrid.  I had thought his explosive ground game would take him into the top 10, but that is appearing increasingly unlikely.  Maybe when he’s 28…

Jerzy Janowicz (age 23) is ranked 21, five spots up from last year, although he did make it as high as 14 during the year.  He took full advantage of a decimated draw at Wimbledon and made Murray fans very uncomfortable in a tight four set loss in the semis.  I still believe he has top 10 potential, but it will require a little more emotional control to get there.

Grigor Dimitrov, rank 23, age 22, seemed to make significant strides in 2013.  His highlights were hoisting the 250 trophy in Stockholm (over Ferrer) and beating then #1 Djokovic in Madrid.  I think he, too, has top 10 potential, and a little more maturity and experience will get him there.

Vasek Pospisil (rank 32) at age 23 is actually 6 months older than fellow-Canadian Raonic.  His best outing was a SF loss to Raonic in a third set tiebreak at the 1000 in Montreal.  He also pushed Federer to 7-5 in the third in the semis at Federer’s hometown in Basel.  He is a fighter on the court and lost in 5 sets at each of the last 3 slams.  He did not make the direct acceptance list in Australia, ranked 125 at the start of the year, and his seeding for the Australian this year is testament to the huge improvements he made during 2013.  For 2014 I’m guessing he may make the top 20.

Bernard Tomic is ranked 51, significantly off his best of #27 in June 2012.  The revelations of his former hitting partner, Thomas Drouet, have made him look both victim and aggressor in his own demise.  He seems to clearly have top 10 potential, maybe even top 5 or better, but the poisonous environment created by his father has not allowed a disciplined approach to fully realize Bernard’s talent.  Hopefully Bernard will be allowed to find a constructive milieu and prevent further wasting of his potential and the narrow window of time in which it can be expressed on the world stage.  If not, he will continue to flounder near his current ranking.

Pablo Carreno Busta (age 22) was awarded the ATP Most Improved award for raising his ranking from 715 at the start of the year to now 64.  He won an astonishing 7 straight Futures tournaments between February and April.  He then won 4 Challenger tournaments, most in the ATP for 2013.  It will be interesting to see how he fares on the main tour in 2014.  Reaching 30 in the world might be a realistic expectation, although he has stated he’d like to play the World Tour Final (top 8).

Jiri Vesely was awarded the ATP Star of Tomorrow for being the youngest player at yearend in the top 100 at 20 years, 5 months and a rank of 85.  At 6’6” I will not expect him to be very mobile, and that probably limits his career arc to top 20 at best, Del Potro (also 6’6”) notwithstanding.

Nick Kyrgios, ranked 182, is the youngest man in the top 200 at age 18.  He won his first slam match in 2013, at the French.  It’s difficult to know what he’s capable of, but the fact that he has come so far at such a young age bodes well.  Top 50 for 2014 would a very good result.

Overall, the next crop of #1’s and slam winners may not come from this group.  The current cohort of Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, and even Del Potro should continue to monopolize the top of the game for several years.  Tomic may have the most potential of the youngsters group for slam glory if he can get his head sorted out, and I’d have to see more of Kyrgios before making predictions about his possible ascension.

Rankings and Predictions

I could easily see the same players in next year’s top 10 as this year.  Tsonga and Gasquet may be most vulnerable to dropping out, and Raonic may be the most likely to crack the yearend top 10, but on balance I doubt much will change. 

Nine members of this year’s top 10 were also in last year’s top 10.  The exit is Janko Tipsarevic. 

Within the top 10, I think Del Potro will inch higher at Ferrer’s expense.  It will be interesting to see who is the top-ranked Swiss in a year’s time.  Like last year, I see no need to deviate from the computer rankings in naming my top 10 for 2013.  Last year’s rankings or projections are in brackets.

Charles’ 2013 Ranking	ATP 2013 Ranking	Charles’ 2014 Projection
1. Rafael Nadal (4)	1. Rafael Nadal (4)	1. Novak Djokovic (1)
2. Novak Djokovic (1)	2. Novak Djokovic (1)	2. Rafael Nadal (4)
3. David Ferrer (5)	3. David Ferrer (5)	3. Andy Murray (3)
4. Andy Murray (3)	4. Andy Murray (3)	4. Juan Martin Del Potro (5)
5. Juan Martin Del Potro (7)	5. Juan Martin Del Potro (7)	5. David Ferrer (6)
6. Roger Federer (2)	6. Roger Federer (2)	6. Roger Federer (2)
7. Tomas Berdych (6)	7. Tomas Berdych (6)	7. Stanislas Wawrinka ()
8. Stanislas Wawrinka ()	8. Stanislas Wawrinka (17)	8. Tomas Berdych (7)
9. Richard Gasquet (10)	9. Richard Gasquet (10)	9. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8)
10. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8)	10. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (8)	10. Richard Gasquet ()

I expect Djokovic will edge out Nadal for top spot by year’s end.  I think Novak will be more motivated than last year.

Looking at predictions for next year’s grand slam events I make guesses for the top 12 at each event.

	Charles – AusOpen	Charles – French	Charles – Wimbledon	Charles – USOpen
1	Djokovic	Nadal	Murray	Djokovic
2	Nadal	Djokovic	Djokovic	Nadal
3	Murray	Ferrer	Nadal	Murray
4	Del Potro	Federer	Federer	Del Potro
5	Federer	Berdych	Del Potro	Ferrer
6	Ferrer	Wawrinka	Berdych	Federer
7	Wawrinka	Del Potro	Tsonga	Berdych
8	Berdych	Gasquet	Janowicz	Wawrinka
9	Gasquet	Murray	Ferrer	Gasquet
10	Tsonga	Tsonga	Gasquet	Tsonga
11	Raonic	Robredo	Haas	Raonic
12	Haas	Almagro	Raonic	Haas

The bookies projections for 2014 are the average of all bookies reporting on 15 Dec 2013 at bookies.com.

	Bookies AusOpen	Bookies AO Odds	Bookies French	Bookies F Odds	Bookies Wimbledon	Bookies W Odds	Bookies USOpen	Bookies US Odds
1	Djokovic	2.28	Nadal	1.70	Djokovic	2.86	Djokovic	2.82
2	Nadal	3.18	Djokovic	2.63	Murray	2.86	Nadal	2.93
3	Murray	5.98	Murray	12.40	Nadal	5.41	Murray	3.49
4	Del Potro	12.00	Del Potro	15.13	Federer	11.52	Del Potro	12.20
5	Federer	17.93	Federer	21.06	Del Potro	11.82	Federer	19.43
6	Wawrinka	42.05	Ferrer	25.09	Tsonga	24.75	Berdych	37.86
7	Berdych	56.66	Tsonga	32.00	Janowicz	27.75	Tsonga	47.69
8	Tsonga	57.29	Berdych	39.56	Berdych	33.44	Wawrinka	57.79
9	Ferrer	59.65	Wawrinka	45.25	Wawrinka	50.46	Janowicz	64.92
10	Raonic	75.19	Almagro	97.33	Dimitrov	53.78	Ferrer	69.46
11	Janowicz	101.57	Raonic	102.60	Ferrer	62.67	Raonic	72.93
12	Gasquet	125.67	Janowicz	103.23	Tomic	70.94	Gasquet	98.08

The bookies have Djokovic and Murray exactly equal for Wimbledon.  Despite their early flame-outs in 2013, Nadal and Federer are next for the big W.  Federer is ranked behind Del Potro everywhere except Wimbledon.  The top 3 are closest by the odds at the US Open.  All have had success there.  Wawrinka is ranked 6^th for the Australian.  Overall, Djokovic gets top billing everywhere except the French where he is still given excellent odds.