Australian Open 2014 Preview:
Women
First Quarter
A win by 17-year old Ashleigh Barty over Serena Williams in
the first round is not inconceivable if Barty plays out of her head and Serena
has a bad day. But Barty has not yet
refined her game in the fierce crucible of competition and experience. Stosur (seed 17) and Ivanovic (14) could have
a fascinating third rounder. Stosur has
a huge game, capable of taking down an in-form Serena, but struggles at her
home slam, whereas Ivanovic continues to post solid results, but seems afraid
of attaining the fearlessness of her 2008, world #1 incarnation. I doubt Stosur will melt down as badly as
last year, but even if she beats Ivanovic, Serena will prevail in 4R.
Vinci (12) is a solid performer who should live up to her
seeding. Her 3R opponent is scheduled
for Wimbledon SFist Flipkens (18), or more likely Robson or Vera Zvonareva who
could play 2R. In the fourth, Vinci
could face Errani (7) or first-time-grand-slam-seed Canadian Eugenie Bouchard
(30). Any of the players mentioned in this
paragraph could grab the QF spot to face Serena, but I’m guessing it’s going to
Bouchard.
Serena d Bouchard
Second Quarter
Grand slam champs Li (4) and Kvitova (6) bracket this
section. Li has a fascinating first
rounder with Ana Konjuh – the latest 16 year old sensation, who will find
unfortunately, that Li is just too refined at present. But watch for Konjuh to blossom this
year. Li’s 2R would be the winner of the
25 year age differential between Kimiko Date Krumm and 16 year old Belinda
Bencic. Makarova (22), who seems to save
her best performances for Australia, opens against Venus Williams in what
should be an anything-can-happen and entertaining tussle. The winner may be about equally matched with Wimbledon-favoring
slugger Lisicki (15) in 3R, and THAT winner should fall to Li in 4R.
Caroline Garcia is due for a breakout but will probably not
be able to get by consistent Kerber (9) in 2R.
Kvitova (6) should sail through this section on talent alone, but her
inveterate inconsistency means nothing is guaranteed, and I’d favour Kerber if
they should meet.
Li d Kerber
Third Quarter
Still returning Petkovic might displace Rybarikova (32) after
first round, but would likely find a rejuvenated Jankovic (8) too much to
handle in 3R. Meanwhile, all eyes will
be on Simona Halep (11) new focus of the Mordor-like eye of the public after
her stealthy but suddenly noticed 6 tournament victories last year. I’m guessing she won’t wilt under scrutiny
for at least a month or two, but will likewise find Jankovic a very
accomplished customer.
Suarez Navarro (16)
seemed to play with more consistency and purpose last year to augment her
natural talent, but even if she gets by Cibulkova (20) in 3R, probably cannot
win against a healthy Sharapova (3) who regained top 3 in the week before the
tournament.
Sharapova and Jankovic could wage an intense and dramatic
battle, but my money is on an I’m-due and pissed off Sharapova.
Sharapova d Jankovic
Fourth Quarter
Wily Aggie Radwanska will likely not find talented young
Putintseva too difficult to keep down in 1R, and should diffuse Pavlyuchenkova
in 3R if the inconsistent A-Pavs can make it that far. Hard-hitting Kaia Kanepi (24) is always a
wildcard but will probably wilt under the retrieving of Wozniacki (10) if they
both make 3R. Radwanska looks most
likely for the QF spot.
The last QF is extremely dense and interesting. Last year’s surprise SFist and Serena-beater
Stephens (13) could have a talent war with Kuznetsova (19) in 3R. Kuznetsova knows how to finish, but Stephens
gets up for the big match. The winner,
probably Stephens, will then have her hands full with second-seeded and
two-time defending champ, Azarenka, in 4R.
Azarenka loves this court and probably won’t run into the nerves that
caused her near-loss to Stephens last year.
She should then continue her domination of once-closer rival Radwanska.
Azarenka d ARadwanska
Semis
Li really does have the capability to beat Serena, and
thrives on this court, as two past final experiences demonstrate. If Serena gets nervous anything can
happen. But after being tight for two
sets against Li in the recent YEC, Serena turned on the jets and walked away
with it. The match is Serena’s to lose,
and with the memory of her win, she should make the finals, probably with an
overcomeable hiccup or two along the way.
Serena d Li
I didn’t think Sharapova was ready to make it this far so
early in her comeback, but with a reasonable draw, a chance to play Azarenka in
the semis is not unreasonable. Azarenka
has more variety, but Sharapova is probably fiercer. Azarenka has looked uncertain against
Sharapova and I don’t think is in a champion’s mindset after her
self-destruction in the final swing of 2013.
Sharapova d Azarenka
Final
We keep watching, thinking that Sharapova must be learning something
about how to beat Serena after 14 consecutive losses. But the truth, I think, is that Serena just
has too much of everything, equals Maria’s intensity, and can handle Sharapova’s
pace and return it with interest. I don’t
see this rivalry getting closer.
Serena d Sharapova
A win by Serena would be her 6th Australian, and
18th slam singles title tying her with Evert and Navratilova and
inching her closer to GOAT status. Age
will eventually come for her, but not yet.
Men
First Quarter
Nadal has a very tricky opening against the mercurial Tomic
in round one. I deem Tomic the most
likely to have top 5 talent among the young up and comers, but he does not seem
to be on a path to actually getting there in his current coaching milieu. In short, he is perfectly dangerous, and
could do virtually anything for one match.
Nadal will be well aware of that and should destroy him – but you never
know.
After overcoming promising Aussie youngster Kokkinakis in
2R, Nadal could then get another serious test in 3R against the ridiculously athletic
and talented Monfils (25). Monfils has
beaten Nadal twice, but did not 3-peat the rivalry in Doha two weeks ago – site
of his former 2 triumphs, advantage Nadal.
I’ll be looking for a rejuvenated Hewitt to upset Seppi (24)
in 1R, and possibly even take out Nishikori (16) in 3R. But Nadal in 4R will be too big an ask, and
Nadal should reach QF with a few scares, but, since the obstacles are known
(unlike blindsiding Rosol, Darcis, or Soderling), he should be well-prepared to
overcome them.
In the second eighth, talented ‘young’sters Raonic (11) and
Dimitrov (22) could battle it out in 3R for the right to be king of what may
well turn out to be a lost generation.
The winner will likely fall to Del Potro (5) who I do not expect to
repeat the early slam hard court exits of last year.
Del Potro actually has a reasonable chance against Nadal on
Australian hard, especially if the courts are moving a little quicker this
year, as they are reputed to be. Del
Potro has game and pace on his side, but Nadal has both indomitability and
confidence. It could be extremely close.
Nadal d Del Potro
Second Quarter
Murray’s (4) eighth doesn’t look too frightening. Lopez (26) could be tricky in 3R, and either
Kohlschreiber (21) or Isner (13) in 4R should be beatable with a modicum of
concentration on his part: as long as
Murray’s back is holding up. Murray
looked rusty in the pre-season, but has the chance with this draw to play into
form before the fireworks begin in the QF.
The 4th eighth is headlined by Federer (6) who at
this time last year was still riding a 30+ event streak of consecutive GS
quarter-finals. But after 2R and 4R at
Wimby and the USO, he’s looking rather vincible these days. Verdasco (31) in 3R can be a handful on these
courts and the talented, monstrous Tsonga (10) is far from a gimme in 4R.
If Murray finds his form he should be too much for either
Tsonga or Federer, but if not, this quarter is ripe for a draw-shaking ride by
an underdog.
Murray d Tsonga
Third Quarter
The 5th eighth is led by Berdych (7), who looks
to have a very reasonable ride to 4R where he’s seeded to meet Haas (12). If Berdych were more consistent I’d ink him
into the QF slot with this draw, but for now pencil will do. Haas did make semis here in 1999, 2002, and
2007, but even the most recent is 7 years ago.
The quarter’s top seed is David Ferrer at 3, although his eighth
is by no means easy. Chardy (29) in 3R
can peak at unexpected times, like into last year’s QF, and the 4R could bring
up dangerous Mikhail Youzhny (14) or the talented upcoming Janowicz (20). Youzhny has made QF at each slam, and
Janowicz announced himself at Wimbledon last year with a SF appearance. Ferrer SHOULD get through them to face
Berdych for the quarter and he has done well on AO hard courts before: SF in 2011 and 2013. Although Ferrer has looked out of sorts of
late and I expect him to struggle, he still looks like a better choice to me
than the inconsistent Berdych. This
quarter is probably most likely to produce a surprise semi-finalist.
Ferrer d Berdych
Fourth Quarter
I’m guessing that Wawrinka (8) will continue his new-found
confidence and blistering form in dispatching Pospisil (28) in 3R. Gasquet (9) and Robredo (17) should wage a
much closer battle if they meet 3R, but will probably go down, albeit with a
significant struggle, to a focussed Wawrinka in 4R.
In the last eighth, Djokovic must have made a sweet and
pleasing aroma for the draw gods for his cakewalk of a draw. Seeds Tursunov (30), Gulbis (23), and Fognini
(15) look unlikely to provide any real resistance in reaching the QF.
Last year’s classics with Wawrinka in Melbourne and New
York, however, have whet my appetite for another showdown. Stan proved very tough for Novak in two 5-set
encounters, but Djokovic won them both, so should have the confidence to do it
again. An upset is not unthinkable, but
I’ll go with precedent.
Djokovic d Wawrinka
Semis
I’m guessing the court favours Murray. He’s been in the final 3 times here, although
never won it. But uncertainty about his
back and the amazing run last year of Nadal, plus his insane determination,
have me picking Nadal in a not too difficult match.
Nadal d. Murray
I actually doubt that Ferrer will make the semis, but can’t
see a better alternative in what to me is an opaque quarter. It’s easy then to pick the 3-time defending
champion to make another finals appearance over a man he’s owned 7-1 in the
last 4 years.
Djokovic d Ferrer
Finals
Djokovic versus Nadal is the final the purists will be
longing to see. The top two men of the last
4 years have chased each other down 39 times in their professional careers, an
open-era record for the most frequent rivalry of any two male players. Nadal leads 22-17. On hard they are 13-7 for Djokovic. Last year they were 3-3 overall, and 2-2 on
hard. It’s super close. The momentum seems to be with Djokovic after
his loss-less yearend swing. But Nadal is
unaccountably fierce and must never be counted out.
Djo-dal 40, if it occurs here, should favour Djokovic by the
surface. I also give Novak the edge in
the hunger department, for being longer without a major (it’s been 12 months!) Still, it’s impossible to count Nadal
out. If Rafa can channel USO 2013, he
can do it here. But I think that was a
high not easily repeated.
Djokovic d. Nadal
It would be Djokovic’s 7th slam victory and Rafa’s
14th, tying him with Sampras.
Stepping back for a moment, a win at this year’s tournament
by Wawrinka, Del Potro, Nadal, or Djokovic is certainly conceivable, and would
not surprise me – although anyone else would.
I count Nadal and Djokovic as extremely close for top honours, but on
balance, all things considered, I think Djokovic’s odds are just slightly the
best.
Bookies
The bookies are favouring Djokovic slightly over Nadal and
Serena over Azarenka. Averages are from
bookies.com on 9 Jan 2014.
|
1
|
Williams, S
|
1.76
|
|
2
|
Azarenka, V
|
5.04
|
|
3
|
Sharapova, M
|
9.60
|
|
4
|
Li, N
|
11.79
|
|
5
|
Kvitova, P
|
16.60
|
|
6
|
Radwanska, A
|
29.95
|
|
7
|
Halep, S
|
33.24
|
|
8
|
Stephens, S
|
38.33
|
|
9
|
Kerber, A
|
44.19
|
|
10
|
Stosur, S
|
47.33
|
|
11
|
Wozniacki, C
|
72.14
|
|
12
|
Lisicki, S
|
72.80
|
|
13
|
Ivanovic, A
|
82.33
|
|
14
|
Jankovic, J
|
92.52
|
|
15
|
Williams, V
|
95.50
|
And now for the men:
|
1
|
Djokovic, N
|
2.01
|
|
2
|
Nadal, R
|
3.42
|
|
3
|
Murray, A
|
7.46
|
|
4
|
Del Potro, JM
|
11.05
|
|
5
|
Federer, R
|
16.45
|
|
6
|
Tsonga, JW
|
41.26
|
|
7
|
Wawrinka, S
|
48.05
|
|
8
|
Ferrer, D
|
62.39
|
|
9
|
Berdych, T
|
67.67
|
|
10
|
Raonic, M
|
88.78
|
|
11
|
Monfils, G
|
114.13
|
|
12
|
Janowicz, J
|
127.89
|
|
13
|
Tomic, B
|
133.16
|
|
14
|
Hewitt, L
|
142.19
|
|
15
|
Gasquet, R
|
159.00
|
Comments
Post a Comment