2013 Women’s Tennis and 2014 Predictions

2013 Women’s Tennis and 2014 Predictions

2013 was a very good year for a lot of women on the tour.  Marion Bartoli won Wimbledon.  Li Na achieved a new career ranking high.  Victoria Azarenka proved she is not a one-hit-wonder with defense of her Australian title.  Jelena Jankovic found her way back to the top 10.  Simona Halep racked up 6 titles at the WTA level – second best for any woman.  And several rising stars achieved new heights like Sloane Stephens, Eugenie Bouchard, Madison Keys, and Victoria Duval.  But standing over all, with one foot firmly among the greats of history, was the age-defying performance of Serena Williams.

Serena Williams

Is Serena in a weak era, or is she just better than everyone else?  Logically, this would seem like the era the WTA is the strongest.  The sport has only grown progressively since its inception in the 1870’s.  There is more money than ever on the tour to attract top talent.  There are more players ranked on the computer than ever.  The long dominance by one nation, the US, has ended because so many other countries have raised the level of their top stars.  Tennis is the best paid professional sport for females.  Everything points to the deepest talent pool and the highest competitive level top-tier women’s tennis has ever seen.

Is there any dissenting evidence?  Serena herself has played in at least two tennis ‘generations.’  The current one comprises top players Serena, Azarenka, and Sharapova, with Li close.  But Serena is also part of the last generation which included herself, Venus, Henin, Clijsters, Mauresmo, Davenport, Capriati, and Hingis.  My bounds for inclusion of a top player in a generation are at least 2 slam singles titles, 3+ slam finals, and a #1 computer ranking.[1]

What’s interesting is that Serena was not particularly dominant over the last generation, but she is very dominant over the current one.  Does that mean the last generation was better?  Or is it just that Serena has gotten stronger?

If you read the footnote, the last generation of 8 top players was the largest women’s tennis has ever seen.  While Serena didn’t have a losing record against any of them, she was fairly even with some of the group – suggesting parity (7-6 v Hingis, 14-10 v Venus, 10-7 v Capriati, 8-6 v Henin).  So it looks like that group was stronger than the current top cohort where Serena dominates Azarenka 13-3 and Sharapova 14-2.

But perhaps Serena has improved.  It is no accident that Serena is the last surviving member of her generation.  She had a winning record over all of them and ultimately, Serena is so good that she’s outlasted them all to dominate the next generation as well.  I’d guess that if the rest of her generation were still playing, she’d be dominating them too, just like she does over Maria and Victoria.

All this is to say that I’m more inclined to think Serena is particularly strong and that it took time for that strength to develop, and not that the current generation is particularly weak.  This makes me think Serena has to be a candidate for female GOAT (greatest of all time).

She now has 17 slam titles, 1 behind Evert and Navratilova, 3 behind Wills (counting the 1924 Olympics as the French for that year), 5 behind Graf, and 7 behind Court.  She may not catch Court (or she might!), but slam title count is only one indicator of greatness. 

	GS singles titles
Court	24
Graf	22
Wills	20
Evert	18
Navratilova	18
SWilliams	17

Another good indicator is years achieving yearend #1.  Both Chris Evert and Billie Jean King are on record saying that slam titles were not as important to them (in the 1970’s) as winning the yearly tour.  Helen Wills leads this count with 9.

	Yearend #1
Wills	9
Lenglen	8
Graf	7
Evert	7
Dod	6
Lambert Chambers	6
Sutton[2]	6
Court	6
Navratilova	6
SWilliams[3]	6

Again, Serena is in rarefied company.  That she has achieved so much in the much more competitive environment of the present era, argues that she could be considered the best.  Certainly, the actual tennis she is playing is superior to anything played before.  But then she benefits from modern racket technology that allows her to make long, lightning-fast, sure strokes.  This simply wasn’t possible before the 1970’s.  Up until that time, a direct comparison between the play of Evert and Wills or Lenglen was conceivable.  But when Navratilova began winning everything in sight with a graphite over-sized racket in the 1980’s, direct comparison of player’s games became impossible, because the equipment had changed so much. 

What we can see is that Serena is incredibly fit, powerful, fast about the court, has no real stroke weaknesses, accurate shot placement, and is ferociously mentally tough.  This can be said of none of the past candidates for GOAT.  Wills was not fast, Lenglen was not powerful (or possibly, fit), Court was not mentally tough, Navratilova had backhand weakness, as did Graf, and Evert was not very powerful or fast.  Serena is possibly the most well-rounded player to date and a strong candidate for GOAT, in my opinion.  Let’s enjoy the remainder of her career while we still can.

What did she accomplish in 2013?  By some measures this was her best year ever.  She won 11 titles, her most ever (ahead of 8 in 2002).  She also claimed 78 match wins (overshadowing 58 last year and 56 in 2002), and her match winning percentage 78-4 or 0.951 also eclipses her previous best (0.935 in 2012).  She ends the year on an 18-match win streak, having not lost since August (Cincinnati to Azarenka), and also chalked up a 34 match win streak, bookending a perfect clay court season.  With her US Open win, she became the first player in history to win the Australian, Wimbledon, and US Open at least 5 times each.[4] 

Serena is edging closer to overtaking Graf in slam matches won (singles).

Slam singles record	Matches won	Matches Lost	Win Rate
Navratilova	305	49	0.862
Evert	296	37	0.889
Graf	278	32	0.897
SWilliams	246	36	0.872
VWilliams	215	52	0.805
SanchezVicario	210	54	0.795
Court	207	23	0.900
Davenport	198	52	0.792
BJKing	190	39	0.830
Seles	180	31	0.853
Martinez	174	63	0.734

The only reason this might not be considered Serena’s strongest year is that in 2002 she won 3 slam titles compared to two this year.  She was 56-5 that year, but overall I think 2013 was probably her strongest ever.  She did suffer two losses to Azarenka – which is rare for her against a top rival.  I think Azarenka should take a lot of heartening from those wins.  She actually seems capable of battling Serena.

What will 2014 hold?  Like this year, Serena should be considered the favourite at every tournament she enters, including the slams.  My guess is that she will be especially motivated at Wimbledon, still perceived by many as the biggest tournament of the year, and where she suffered a stinging defeat to Sabine Lisicki.  I’ll bet she is also eager to prove that her Australian loss on a weak ankle (to Sloane Stephens) was not a true indicator of her prowess.

I suspect she may not be quite as driven for this year’s Roland Garros title, although I still count her as the favourite at that tournament.  Azarenka seems the only one capable of pushing Serena, and a solid shove by Victoria might make an interesting two-horse race and send Serena toward retirement faster than might be imagined.  But overall, despite the inconsistency and fear that creeps into the game with age, I expect another year of Serena domination.

A few more Serena stats:  weeks in the computer top 10 all time, where she is 5^th and closing (as of Dec 31, 2013):

Rank	Player	Longest streak in Top 10	Total weeks in Top 10
1	Martina Navratilova	1000	1000
2	Chris Evert	743	743
3	Steffi Graf	630	674
4	Monica Seles	392	624
5	Serena Williams	251	608
6	Lindsay Davenport	332	597
7	Arantxa Sanchez Vicario	431	574
8	Venus Williams	293	554
9	Gabriela Sabatini	519	522
10	Conchita Martinez	319	516
15	Maria Sharapova	239	383
33	Jelena Jankovic	227	243
35	Caroline Wozniacki	173	232
36	Victoria Azarenka	170	229
40	Agnieszka Radwanska	117	206
43	Li Na	73	160
48	Petra Kvitova	122	136
65	Angelique Kerber	85	85
66	Sara Errani	82	82

Not only is she the oldest computer #1 ever, Serena also has the longest span at #1, that is weeks between her first and last #1 ranking, covering exactly 600 weeks at yearend, and counting. 

#1 Computer Ranking	Span between first and last weeks
SWilliams	600
Evert	525
Graf	502
Navratilova	475
Clijsters	393
Davenport	381
Sharapova	359
Seles	298
Henin	239
Hingis	237

Evert was ranked #1 when the computer rankings started.  I estimate that, had there been rankings earlier, she would have attained #1 no later than July 1974.  That could add about 69 weeks to her total bringing it to 594 – very close to Serena.  Similarly, Margaret Court would probably have had #1 rankings in a computer system no later than Sep 1962, and at least until May 1974, making a span of about 608 weeks, possibly longer.  No one else would likely come that close unless we go back very far in time to the days of Dorothea Lambert Chambers and Blanche Bingley Hillyard.

Victoria Azarenka

Azarenka started the year strongly, defending her Australian title in a draw featuring all her top rivals:  Serena, Sharapova, Li, ARadwanska, and a surging Sloane Stephens.  When she beat Serena a few weeks later in Doha and started the year on a 17 match win streak, it looked like we might have a genuine rivalry for the top to look forward to.  But she didn’t win another tournament for 6 months until again taking down Serena, this time in the Cincinnati final.  Could Azarenka do it again at the US Open?

A win by Victoria at the USO would have cast a serious shadow on a one-slam year for Serena, if Azarenka could claim two.  We were treated to two highly entertaining and close sets 75 67(6), before Serena knocked it up a notch and ran away with it 6-1 in a windy third.  Deflated, Victoria won only one of 5 matches she played in the remainder of the year:  a disappointing performance to be sure.

But a new leaf turns over in 2014.  Can Victoria right the ship at her most successful slam in Australia?  She still remains the most legitimate threat to Serena and she has age on her side.  She turns 25 in mid-summer and should be reaching the height of her powers.  I expect that she can do some serious damage to Serena this year.  Serena will begin fighting consistency and speed issues, along with perhaps mental fatigue from her many years in the trenches.  She may be the best ever, but eventually age wins.

Two questions I ponder are:  does Azarenka have the tools to beat an aging Serena, and will Azarenka recover from last year’s mental defeats to believe that she can challenge and claim the top?  The answer to the first is ‘yes’ I believe, but the second answer is less clearcut.

Azarenka looked clearly demoralized at the end of the year.  If she continues with that attitude, she will not be a winner in 2014.  But with a few months off to gain perspective, I think she should take heart from her two 2013 wins over Serena and make a strong push to start 2014.  If she can be successful early on, she will likely have a better chance of believing herself through a strong year.  But if she suffers some setbacks against Serena out of the gate, she may continue to struggle.  It’s in her hands (or head).  I believe she has the tools to pull it off, but will she?  I’ll pick her for one slam title next year, probably on hard.

Li Na

2013 marked a resurgence for Li.  After a sophomore slump in 2012, following her 2011 slam win at the French, she started the year strongly, making a run to the Australian final before suffering a 3-set loss in which she was injured multiple times (head and ankle).  She also ended the year strongly with a finalist appearance at the yearend championships (YEC), defeating her conqueror in Australia (Azarenka), and pushing Serena to 3 sets, before Serena ‘did her thing’ and blitzed the third 6-0.

After Australia she faded a bit, but began to turn things around in summer, finishing no worse than QF in every tournament she played after the French.  She did well at the US Open, reaching the SF for the first time before going down fairly meekly to Serena.

If there’s a big 4 in today’s women’s tennis, it probably includes Li.  The other members would be Serena, Azarenka, and the indefatigable Sharapova.  Of the 24 slam finalists over the last 3 years, this group has accounted for 16 of the available spots – 5 for Serena, 4 for Azarenka, 4 for Sharapova, and 3 for Li.  They’ve also accounted for 5 out 6 finalist spots at the yearend championships in the last 3 years.

Li is 5 months younger than Serena, turning 32 in February, and like Serena does not seem to be slowing down with age.  Eventually this will catch up with her, but it seems reasonable to expect that she can play well for at least one more year.  Certainly, achieving the yearend #3 ranking is a new high for her, only surpassed by her French title.

Despite that French title, Li seems to do best at the Australian championships (27 w – 8 l) where she’s twice made the final and one other semi.  She’s actually fairly well-balanced at the slams, with 3 QF’s at Wimbledon and 1 SF, 1 QF at USO.  I’ll be looking for her to ride the momentum of her runner-up showing at the YEC to a deep run in Australia.  I think she’ll also have a reasonable chance to do damage at Wimbledon.  Along with Sharapova she’ll be in my first picks for a slam title if Serena and Azarenka fail to sweep the big hardware in 2014, even though titles of any sort have not come easily to her.

2013 Top 11 – titles per year

Tournament titles	2013 Titles	Career Titles	Years on tour[5]	Titles/Yr
SWilliams	11	57	17	3.4
Sharapova	2	29	11	2.6
Wozniacki	1	21	8	2.6
Azarenka	3	17	9	1.9
Kvitova	2	11	6	1.8
ARadwanska	3	13	8	1.6
Halep	6	6	4	1.5
Jankovic	1	13	12	1.1
Errani	1	7	8	0.9
Li	1	7	10	0.7
Kerber	1	3	8	0.4

Li is second lowest in titles per year among this year’s top 11.  And that’s being generous in calculating her years on tour:  she notches 7 years less than Serena who is only 5 months older than her.  I’ll be counting on her to add to her title count in 2014.

Maria Sharapova

Sharapova’s biggest title of the year was the Premier Mandatory event in Indian Wells.  She also was runner-up in the other two Premier Mandatory’s she played in Miami and Madrid, as well as at the French Open (losing each time to Serena).  She copped the title in Stuttgart over Li, avenging her SF defeat at the Australian.  The year was shaping up to be a good one, until disaster struck when her shoulder injury flared again, forcing her off the tour.  She lost her second round at Wimbledon and her first match in Cincinnati before hanging up the racket for the year.

She had done enough good by then to hold onto #4 by yearend.  I hope she recovers speedily.

What can be expected in 2014?  She has not typically bounced back from injury quickly, and ‘when’ she might return is far from certain.  Her website indicates Brisbane followed by the Australian Open on her schedule.  Let’s hope she is healed by January.

She is a career grand slam winner, with exactly one title at each event, so she could challenge anywhere.  I’ll guess the Australian will be too soon.  The USO has not been easy for her, only one SF since her title there in 2006.  So I’ll guess her best chances of slam glory are at Wimbledon or the French—where she’s been in the final the last two years (winning in 2012).

She might lose ground in the rankings race to Radwanska early in the year, but I’d expect her to be back in the top 4 by year’s end.  However, I doubt she’ll displace Serena or Azarenka at the very top.  Maria turns 27 this year and is still in the prime of her career.  If Serena or Li start to feel their age, slam titles may start to flow her way, although I don’t expect that for 2014.  Three or so other titles are a realistic expectation.

Agnieszka Radwanska

Radwanska finishes the year with the second most match wins in the WTA and a second year in the top 5 rankings.  Not bad for someone who’s most notable weapon could be called something like “court craft.”  

	2013 match wins[6]
SWilliams	78
ARadwanska	56
Kvitova	51
Halep	50
Vinci	50
Errani	49
Jankovic	46
Kerber	45
Li	44
Azarenka	43
Suarez Navarro	43

Aggie is consistent and places the ball well, but her game is a little underpowered by today’s standards.  Wimbledon’s low-bouncing grass favours her fast hands and is her most successful slam.  It looked like she would get another chance in the final this year, but her run was halted in the semis just two points from the final by the inspired play of Sabine Lisicki. 

She may get more chances at slam finals, but there are no guarantees.  The four women ranked above her all sport more potent games, and Kvitova could well join that group with a little consistency.  So climbing the slam mountain will always be tough for Agnieszka – she’ll likely need help from a good draw and some upsets.  

Kudos to her for her strong tennis mind and getting so much out of her game. 

For 2014 I’ll look for her to win 2 or 3 tournaments and make another slam SF.  If she can do it at a hardcourt slam, it might be a sign she’s still improving.

Petra Kvitova

I’m blinking twice, wondering how Kvitova is still ranked #6. The yearend #1 pick of 2011 has struggled mightily in the last 2 years.  More than anyone, she typifies the go-for broke power game that so many try to employ in the WTA.  She also exemplifies its shortcomings.  Her game can go off the rails in seconds and descend from glorious winners to ignominious errors and back again, several times a match.  To me it seems like juvenile, not very smart tennis.  Winners are wonderful, but so is control and picking your spots.  She needs to take a page out of the Nadal playbook and learn about margin for error.  I hope that Petra’s game matures.

Pointswise her best tournaments this year were Tokyo (title), the yearend championships (SF), Wimbledon (QF), Dubai (title), and Beijing (SF).  Those 5 tournaments account for 60% of her ranking points, but do not exactly look like a banner year for a top flight player, capable of winning Wimbledon.

I see little to suggest a different trajectory for next year.  If she’s on and a draw breaks her way, another GS title is not out of the question.  So is a series of second round losses.  The one encouraging sign is that when her ranking dropped out of the top 10 after the US Open, she promptly responded with her best results of the year, beating five top-10 players.  Somewhere a fire burns within.

I think 2013 may have been a low for her, so I’ll pick her for at least a major SF in 2014, maybe better.

Marion Bartoli

Wimbledon.  The mythic pinnacle of tennis achievement.  Somehow, seemingly from nowhere, Bartoli scaled the unassailable.  It is a career-crowning accomplishment, and so it is not entirely surprising that Bartoli decided shortly afterward to hang up the racket for good.  Although... I think she’s missing a golden opportunity to cash in on what should be the most lucrative time of her career.  She is clearly more of an idealist than most.

Her win was not a complete surprise:  she made the final in 2007 and leading up to the 2011 edition, her form was good enough to convince me to pick her to win the title.  She upset Serena that year, but did not make it out of the quarters.   There’s no question she is a force to be reckoned with, especially on grass.

I harbour hopes that she will come out of retirement.  Having another slam winner in the mix is bound to make any tournament more interesting.  Someone who knows they can reach the greatest height should be able to play with the confidence that they can do it again, and keep the Serena’s and Victoria’s of the world honest.  If not, I wish her all the best and great happiness.  If she does play, she’ll be in my top 5 for Wimbledon along with Serena, Azarenka, Kvitova, and Lisicki.

Notable Performances

Sara Errani (7), Angelique Kerber (9), and Caroline Wozniacki (10) hung onto spots in the yearend top 10; and Jelena Jankovic rejoined the elite group at #8, after a few years away.  I will not be expecting any slam break-throughs from this cohort but they’re all good enough to go deep and maybe win a tournament or two during 2014.

Last year I predicted Sloane Stephens could reach a slam SF in 2013, and she did not disappoint, with a memorable run at the Australian Open, taking out Serena, and putting a holy fear into Azarenka.  She continued to do well at the slams, making the quarters at Wimbledon and 4R at the French and US opens.  The downside is she didn’t do particularly well anywhere else, aside from notching a win over a questionable Sharapova in Cincinnati.  She has yet to win a tournament at the WTA level.

Still, there’s no denying her talent.  Will she harness it?  Although she’s 12 in the world, making it those next 2 spots to the top 10 would be a big accomplishment for her in 2014.  She’s going to be hemorrhaging points during the Australian swing, but if she can play well during the spring, she still has a chance to make it to #10 before Wimbledon.  I won’t predict more than a SF finish at the slams for her in the coming year, but I think she will cross the hurdle of a tournament win.

Simona Halep was a surprise this year, finishing at #11.  There were 52 tournaments on the main WTA calendar for 2013.  It turns out 6 went to the 22 year-old Romanian, highest after Serena.  My first instinct is that she will have a hard time repeating that next year when she’s playing bigger tournaments, not just the 280 point International Series where she spent most of her time.  But she did in fact win two tournaments at the 470 point Premier level, and then swept the draw at the 2^nd tier Tournament of Champions at yearend.  She also notched 4 wins over top 10 players.

So I’m very curious about the part Halep will play on the 2014 stage.  I expect she might be able to make QF at one of the slams.  She is late to be announcing herself as a slam contender at age 22, even if players are taking longer to mature now.  More realistically, another two or three titles and a foray into the top 10 seem well within reason.

Roberta Vinci, age 30, is still #1 in doubles (with Errani) and close to her career-best ranking of #11.  She has a reasonable chance in 2014 to make the elusive #10 in singles.

Sabine Lisicki thrives at Wimbledon.  She won memorable matches with Serena and Radwanska at this year’s Wimbledon, and then played a forgettable one in the final against Bartoli, although Bartoli takes a lot of the credit for that.  Nearly a quarter of her match wins this year were at the two grass court tournaments she played.  She has won more matches at Wimbledon (19-5) than at the other 3 slams combined (18-13). 

Match records at Wimbledon 2010-2013

2010-2013	W-L record at Wimbledon
SWilliams	20-2
Kvitova	20-3
Lisicki	19-4
Bartoli	15-3
ARadwanska	15-4
Azarenka	13-3
Sharapova	13-4

Can Sabine do well elsewhere?  She finishes the year at #15, the same as 2011.  She seems to be treading water in her 4^th year in the top 30.  At age 24, her best tennis should still be ahead.  Perhaps the Wimbledon experience will boost her self-confidence for next year, but there is little else to suggest that next year will be much different from the last:  a strong Wimbledon and top 30 results elsewhere.

Samantha Stosur has played two slam finals and her gob-smacking victory over Serena in the 2011 US final is still one of the most astonishing I can remember.  In 2013 she played tepidly most of the year, then unexpectedly made the finals of the last three events she played.  It would be nice to see her carry that momentum into her home slam in Melbourne, but she’s typically had less hope there than a Chinese miner after a cave-in.  Surprisingly, she’s even worse at Wimbledon where she bats below .500 in singles, despite making the doubles final 3 times.

I think her grand slam title will probably keep her warm into old age – she doesn’t need another, although a deep run at the French would be least surprising.  She may approach the top 10 again next year, after she turns 30 in March.

The surprise 19-year old US Open titlist of 2004, Svetlana Kuznetsova, has not amassed the slam title count that might have been expected 9 years later.  But underestimate her at your peril.  She nearly took Serena out of the French quarter-finals, and finishes the year at #21.  In Sydney in January, she was ranked 85, but turned it around in Australia, leaving the country with 9 matches won and a QF showing in Melbourne.  For a woman sporting the clay chops of a 2009 French Open title, her clay season was mediocre until Roland Garros.  Who knows how far she might have gone if she’d more than just scared Serena.

Unfortunately, injury then sidelined her for two months, and she only managed to play back into form at the end of the year with a QF in Tokyo and a SF in Moscow.  If she can keep her attitude up she may actually outperform last year’s offering, although the possibility to lose a few ranking spots early on should turn around as she replaces weak results from mid-year.  She definitely should not be counted out on hard or especially clay, and slam opponents should be wary as a gopher in a yard of hoses when playing her.  She’s most likely to factor at the French.

Venus Williams seems on the inexorable slide of age.  Given the resilience of Serena, only 16 months junior, one wonders how much Sjogren’s has steepened the slope.  She showed signs of a healthy pulse in October in Tokyo with victories over Bouchard, Halep, and Azarenka in a SF showing.  I think a small title in 2014 could be reasonable, and a deep run at Wimbledon is always a possibility.

Venus is probably underestimated now among the pantheon of great tennis players, but she was the dominant player of 2000-01 winning Wimbledon and the US both years, before she ran into Serena and became the only player in history to lose 4 consecutive slam finals (02 F – 03 A). But she did cap her career with 3 more Wimbledons, making the final as recently as 2009.  I hope I have the chance to see her play a few more times with her particular brand of lanky athleticism.

Vera Zvonareva hasn’t played professionally for 18 months, but is scheduled to return at the Australian Open.  She’ll probably need to play into tournament form for a few months before becoming a true contender.  It would be nice to see her make a slam QF this year

The Future

The highest ranked teenager on tour is Canadian Eugenie Bouchard.  We’ve typically produced prodigies who peaked before age 21 (Bassett, Kelesi, Marino), so let’s hope 19-year old Bouchard does not follow form.  The augurs are good.  She played her first main draw slam matches this year and has a positive winning record 4-3.  The success of being Canada’s first junior slam singles winner (she preceded Filip Peliwo by one day) at Wimbledon 2012, has not corrupted her.  She had her best result of the year in her second last tournament, the final in Osaka, and at #32 should just get an Australian Open seeding, if she isn’t overtaken during the Antipodean micro-swing.  For 2014 I’ll guess that she starts to show up in a few slam fourth rounds and maybe nabs that first elusive tour title.

The next teenager in the rankings is 18-year old Madison Keys at #38, who will be 19 in February.  She started strongly out of the gate making QF in Sydney and 3R in Melbourne, raising her ranking 100 spots by year end and finishing SF in her last tournament in Osaka.  I’ll be curious if she can make QF or better at a slam this year and threaten for a small title.  She’s in the same ranking as Sloane Stephens last year, and a similar breakout might be possible.

Laura Robson is the next in our parade of big lusty teens, at #44 (the first three are all at least 5’10”).  Her best results were at the slams, particularly Wimbledon where she made 4R.  She seems to be stagnating a bit – perhaps because expectations have been so high for so long.  She does not appear to be the female reincarnation of Andy Murray (to British chagrin), but she might turn into a solid top 20 player soon.  She could go even higher if the old guard eventually retires.

Only one spot back at #45 is 5’9” Elina Svitolina.  Her best result was the 280 point title at Baku.  Granted the highest player she beat there was then 64-ranked fellow-teen Vekic.  I’m expecting about #30 for her next year, she will take some getting used to the big power and consistency of the higher echelons.

I will only mention teens Annika Beck (#58) and Anna Schmiedlova (#83) on my way to Donna Vekic (#96) who is notable for being only 17.  She’s actually down 10 spots from last year’s #86, and not much changed from 2011’s rank of #118.  Has she reached her level?  At age 17 and 5’10” I’ll expect significant improvement still to come, maybe a deep run at a WTA event or a slam 4R.

The next name to catch my eye is Victoria Kan, age 18, #153.  She won 3 ITF events in 2013, including her last 2 outings.  Will she make top 100 in 2014?

Victoria Duval (is Victoria’s Secret REALLY responsible for this naming craze?), just turned 18 (30 Nov) and is ranked #168 on the back of her inspiring victory over former champion, Stosur, at the US Open.  She finished the year strongly with a victory in the ITF event in Toronto.  If she can harness the poise and ability she displayed beating Stosur, she should be well within the top 100, perhaps even 50, by next year.

Katerina Sinaikova #170, age 17, is a name to be alert for next year, and so is Belinda Bencic #183 and just 16 years old.

Ashleigh Barty, 17, is ranked #189 in singles and an astonishing #12 in doubles after finalist finishes at the Australian, Wimbledon, and US Open.  Surely this tells of a deep vein of talent.  Will she show it in singles in 2014?

The last name I’m paying attention to is Taylor Townsend, who is also 17, but ranked a nautical #362.  I can’t imagine what it would be like to be publicly labelled in the international press as an underachiever by age 16 (at the time), so I have great respect for everything she accomplishes.  How far will she go?

Slam Predictions

It all starts with Serena Williams.  It’s hard to imagine the bookies picking against her in any slam of 2014, barring injury, retirement, or a dramatic surprise in the year’s unfolding.

The bookies projections for 2014 are the average of all bookies reporting on 15 Dec 2013 at bookies.com.

	Bookies AusOpen	Bookies Aus Odds	Bookies French	Bookies Fre Odds	Bookies Wimbled	Bookies Wim Odds	Bookies USOpen	Bookies US Odds
1	SWilliams	1.99	SWilliams	2.28	SWilliams	2.27	SWilliams	2.22
2	Azarenka	4.70	Azarenka	5.59	Sharapova	6.16	Azarenka	3.43
3	Sharapova	9.11	Sharapova	5.93	Azarenka	6.19	Sharapova	8.28
4	Li	11.87	Li	13.57	Kvitova	14.19	Li	14.86
5	Kvitova	18.76	Stephens	20.07	Li	19.77	Kvitova	16.39
6	ARadwans	25.24	ARadwans	21.61	Stephens	20.77	Stephens	16.65
7	Halep	30.55	Halep	21.77	ARadwans	24.33	ARadwans	21.00
8	Stephens	35.67	Kvitova	25.50	Lisicki	27.07	Halep	29.58
9	Kerber	42.90	Stosur	26.96	Kerber	32.47	Lisicki	29.96
10	Stosur	43.38	Kerber	33.79	Halep	34.09	Stosur	32.83
11	Wozniacki	64.29	Errani	46.43	Stosur	42.93	Kerber	35.36
12	Lisicki	69.55	Ivanovic	51.29	Robson	45.13	Ivanovic	53.29

Azarenka is second for the bookies except at Wimbledon where she is barely edged out by Sharapova.  Li is rated 4^th everywhere except at Wimbledon where she is displaced by former champ Kvitova.  Serena, Azarenka, and Sharapova form a big 3 in the bookies estimates, then Li.  Next, in general, are Kvitova, Radwanska, and Stephens.  Kvitova’s and Radwanska’s places are justified, Stephens’ probably is not.  Halep makes the top 12 at each slam – it will be interesting to see if she can live up to that.  Kerber and Stosur are rated everywhere and Lisicki misses out only at the French.  Wozniacki, recent yearend #1 for 2 years, is listed by the bookies as top 12 only at the Australian.  Overall, I think the bookies estimates are fairly good, except that Stephens and Halep are too high.

My guesses are as follows.

	Charles AusOpen	Charles French	Charles Wimbledon	Charles USOpen
1	SWilliams	SWilliams	SWilliams	SWilliams
2	Azarenka	Sharapova	Azarenka	Azarenka
3	Li	Li	Kvitova	Li
4	Sharapova	Azarenka	Lisicki	Sharapova
5	ARadwanska	Kvitova	Bartoli	ARadwanska
6	Kvitova	Errani	ARadwanska	Kvitova
7	Errani	ARadwanska	Li	Errani
8	Kerber	Vinci	Sharapova	Kerber
9	Jankovic	Stosur	Zvonareva	Jankovic
10	Stephens	Ivanovic	VWilliams	Vinci
11	Wozniacki	Kuznetsova	Kerber	Wozniacki
12	Halep	Kerber	Bouchard	Halep

I rated Bartoli at Wimbledon hoping that she will un-retire.  I think any of the top 8 I’ve listed at Wimbledon could win it.  Elsewhere, I’d say there is little chance for anyone outside of the top 4.  I give Bouchard a shot at a deepish run at Wimbledon.

Rankings

I am reasonably happy with the WTA yearend ranking this year.  The one strong exception I make is to raise Bartoli into the top 10.  I think her Wimbledon title definitely merits that, and the lack of results caused by her retirement probably deflates her ranking artificially.  I put her in at #6, in the 1100 point gap between Radwanska and Kvitova.

Here’s a summary of my rankings, WTA rankings, and my projection for next yearend.  (Last year’s ranking/projection in brackets.)

Charles’ 2013 Ranking	WTA 2013 Ranking	Charles 2014 Projection
1. Serena Williams (1)	1. Serena Williams (3)	1. Serena Williams (1)
2. Victoria Azarenka (2)	2. Victoria Azarenka (1)	2. Victoria Azarenka (2)
3. Li Na (8)	3. Li Na (7)	3. Maria Sharapova (3)
4. Maria Sharapova (3)	4. Maria Sharapova (2)	4. Li Na (6)
5. Agnieszka Radwanska (4)	5. Agnieszka Radwanska (4)	5. Agnieszka Radwanska (5)
6. Marion Bartoli ()	6. Petra Kvitova (8)	6. Petra Kvitova (4)
7. Petra Kvitova (5)	7. Sara Errani (6)	7. Sara Errani (8)
8. Sara Errani (7)	8. Jelena Jankovic (22)	8. Angelique Kerber (9)
9. Jelena Jankovic ()	9. Angelique Kerber (5)	9. Caroline Wozniacki (7)
10. Angelique Kerber (6)	10. Caroline Wozniacki (10)	10. Sloane Stephens ()

All of last year’s top 8 in both my rankings and the WTA rankings retain positions in this year’s top 10 – a sign of relative stability at the top of the WTA.

For next year’s projections, I think Serena will stay on top and there will be little change from last year’s pecking order.  I predict Sloane Stephens will enter the top 10, and Jankovic will fall.  I could easily see Simona Halep making the top 10, and Madison Keys could surprise as well.

We should be entering the prime years of Azarenka, Sharapova, Radwanska, and Kvitova.  Can they wrack up titles and push out Serena and Li before they are themselves replaced by the Stephens-Keys-Bouchard-Robson generation?

---

[1] I group generations roughly by bulk of over-lapping slam titles – some players are hard to classify.  The 11 generations I’ve identified, by top players:  gen 11 – Azarenka, Sharapova;  gen 10 – Clijsters, Henin, Capriati, Serena, Mauresmo, Venus, Davenport, Hingis;  gen 9 – Seles, SanchezVicario, Graf;  gen 8 – Navratilova, Evert, Goolagong;  gen 7 – King, Court, Bueno;  gen 6 – Hard, Gibson, Mortimer;  gen 5 – Connolly, Hart, Fry, Brough, Osborne, and Betz between 4 and 5;  gen 4 – Marble, Palfrey, Jacobs, Round, Wills;  gen 3 – Lenglen, Mallory;  gen 2 – Lambert Chambers, Sutton, Hotchkiss, Browne;  gen 1 – Cooper Sterry, Bingley Hillyard, Martin, Dod, M Watson

[2] Some of the war years are definitely questionable

[3] There are 7 years in which Serena makes a strong argument for #1:  2002-03, 2008-10, 2012-13.  2003 and 2010 are often granted to Henin and Clijsters respectively, although the numbers argue for Serena.

[4] But not the first to win 3 slams 5 time each:  Steffi Graf won the French, Wimbledon, and the US Open at least 5 times each, Margaret Court won the Australian, French, and US Open at least 5 times each, and Wills won 5 each at the French, Wimbledon, and USO, if the 1924 Paris Olympics are considered the French chps of that year.

[5] Years playing at least 5 or so tournaments on the main WTA tour

[6] I count only slam, Fed Cup, and WTA main draw wins.