2019 Australian Open Men’s Draw Preview

2019 Australian Open Men’s Draw Preview

10 Jan 2019 – Charles Friesen

Are Djokovic and Federer the favourites?  They’ve each won a record-tying SIX Aus Opens, leaving room for only Nadal and Wawrinka once each in the last 13 years.  But what about the young hot shots Sascha Zverev, Karen Khachanov, and Stefanos Tsitsipas who stormed into the top 15 at the end of 2018, each with a victory over Djokovic?

First Quarter

Djokovic seemed back to his winning ways last year, taking Wimbledon and the US Open and winning 31 of 32 matches at one stretch.  But somehow I’m not convinced he’s recovered his full 2015/16 level when he won 5 of 6 slams in a row.  Or maybe it’s just that the competition is catching up, especially that pesky Next Gen. 

The three most dangerous of that cohort are not in his quarter but he could run into Canadian Denis Shapovalov in the third round (3R) or Daniil Medvedev (seeded 15) in the fourth.  Or perhaps former #7 David Goffin (21 seed) will test him, or Kei Nishkori (8)?  Nishikori has two wins over Djokovic, but Novak is on a 13-match win streak in their head to head.  We could see a replay of the 2008 final if returning Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Djokovic face off in the second round.  It looks like a great draw for Djokovic.

Djokovic d. Nishikori

Second Quarter

Milos Raonic (16) has drawn the toughest opening rounds of the seeds.  He starts against the oceanically talented Nick Kyrgios, and then could face either Stan Wawrinka or Ernests Gulbis, both of whom are former top-ten players.  Actually it’s a terrible draw for all of them. 

The game’s most astute observers speak reverently of Kyrgios’ prodigious talent and also disparagingly of his apparent inability to harness it.  Wawrinka is a three-time slam champ, including the Aus Open title of 2014, but has struggled mightily with injury in the last year and a half.  Since Raonic has also battled injury in the last year I give slight preference to the more proven gifts of Wawrinka. It may not get much easier for him in round three if he runs into last year’s semi-finalist Hyeon Chung (24), or Alexander Zverev (4) in the fourth. 

Also here are Thiem seeded 7, and Coric (11).  The 22-year old Coric made dramatic progress last year and has a level head-to-head of 2-2 with Federer, Nadal, and Murray (totaling an incredible 6 wins-6 losses against this trio).  Only Djokovic seems to have his number, leading 3-0.  Although Coric has been wholly unsuccessful at the AO, losing all four matches he has contested, I have a feeling that will change this year.  He’s got a good draw that could easily see him in the fourth round.  There he could face Dominic Thiem who has been to the second week here the last two years (but not to the quarters), for the right to face Zverev, if seeds hold, in the quarters.

Zverev is facing a career-defining year, I believe.  He’s reached #3 in the world and just won the yearend ATP Finals.  He turns 22 this year, which is the same year that such notables as Federer, Laver, and Connors won their first slams – all of whom were (relatively) late bloomers.  The only later bloomer among recent 5+ slam-winning yearend #1s was Ivan Lendl who won his first major at 24.  Lendl is now Zverev’s coach.  Ivan had tremendous success with Andy Murray, in his corner for all three of Murray’s slam triumphs.  Federer first won on the 17^th slam he played, Agassi the 15^th, and Laver the 14^th.   Zverev has played 14 so he is ripe for a victory all of this year.  Zverev’s two yearend top-four finishes by age 21 are unprecedented for a non-slam winner. 

In short, all signs are pointing to a Zverev slam triumph, probably this year.  If he doesn’t win a major this year, his career is more likely to resemble Murray’s than McEnroe’s or Djokovic’s.  Surprisingly, Zverev has never been past the third round of a hard court slam (AO or USO).  But given his ground-shaking wins over Federer and Djokovic at the ATP Finals, and a draw that doesn’t look too tough, I expect he will go deep here this year.

Sure it’s possible Zverev could lose to wily Gilles Simon (29) in the third round. But I think it’s more probable Sascha clears that hurdle and the winner of the Raonic-Kyrgios-Wawrinka nightmare, and even Thiem or Coric to make the semis.  If he can get there he’s likely to face Djokovic.  The two have split their h2h two wins each, all in straight sets.  A pecking order is not established.  Given Djokovic’s shaky finish to 2018, I think Zverev has a decent chance to beat him and go all the way to the title.  A chance…

AZverev d. Thiem

Third Quarter

Federer should ease through the first couple rounds but could face Gael Monfils (30) in the third.  Monfils is a surprising 4 wins, 9 losses with Roger – surprising that it’s that close since Fed tends to dominate the h2h with most lesser players. 

Also here is Roberto Bautista-Agut (22) who beat Djokovic last week in Doha.  He opens against Andy Murray, who tearfully announced today that this Aus Open might be his last tournament, but saying he would try to last till Wimbledon.  It’s a shame to see this three-time slam champ and former yearend #1 felled by injury.  I’ll be pulling for one last good run from Murray but doubt that his hip will let the five-time runner-up here win more than a couple matches on this outing.  It signals the end of the Big-Four era.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (14) has an excellent shot at making the fourth round to face Federer.  I’d expect Federer to triumph although it could be close.  Next up could be another young gun, Karen Khachanov (10) or last year’s runner-up Marin Cilic (6).  These four seeds could put on an eye-catching derby.  Khachanov was nothing short of brilliant in taking the Paris 1000 last year, and Cilic has now been to the finals of three of the four slams.  Young versus old.  I think the old are slightly more reliable so I’ll take Federer to emerge.

Federer d. Khachanov

Fourth Quarter

If Nadal is healthy he should roll through this quarter.  But is he healthy?  His withdrawal last week with a strain in his thigh was probably more precautionary than serious.  That said, Nadal played only nine tournaments last year, withdrawing injured from both hard court slams. 

He could get a test from 19-year old Alex de Minaur (27) in the third round.  And the fourth could bring up the rabbit Diego Schwartzman (18) or a returning from injury Tomas Berdych.  Berdych would have to get by 13^th seeded Kyle Edmund in his first match.  Edmund made the semis here last year and claimed his first tour title, a 250, in October.  But I favour Berdych who looks to be on the road back and has made slam quarter-finals 17 times, including 7 of the last 8 Australian Opens.

The other part of this quarter hosts Kevin Anderson (5), John Isner (9), and Grigor Dimitrov (20).  Anderson has had a sterling run of form, claiming three titles in the last 12 months and a Wimbledon finalist appearance on the backs of five-set victories over Federer and Isner.  But like Isner, he hasn’t been past the fourth round at the Australian.

Dimitrov has been to three AO quarters, including a scintillating five-set semi-final loss to Nadal two years ago.  Grigor struggled with form last year, but may be recovering.  It would be great to see another hard-fought battle with Nadal, but as before, Nadal would be favoured.

Nadal d. Dimitrov

Semis

Despite my bold prophecies of Zverev’s impending victory, a betting man would favour the six-time champ over the zero-time quarterfinalist, and I am a betting man.

Djokovic d. AZverev

It would be a rare treat to savour the delicacy of another Federer – Nadal battle.  They haven’t played since 2017 when Federer swept all four of their meetings that year.  Given Nadal’s impeccable play most of last year I should be favouring Nadal, but the speed of the surface and questions around Nadal’s fitness have me tipping the balance toward Federer.  If this match happens – expect fireworks.

Federer d. Nadal

Final

Unsurprisingly I’m predicting the two six-time champions will meet to determine who is the first to seven and sole possession of the men’s record for Australian Open titles.  But it might be more exciting if we have a first-time winner – Zverev, Khachanov, Cilic, Nshikori?

Djokovic d. Federer

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 10 Jan 2019

1	Djokovic	2.2
2	Federer	5.5
3	Nadal	9
4	AZverev	13
5	Cilic	26
6	Nishikori	26
7	Khachanov	26
8	KAnderson	29
9	Kyrgios	34
10	Coric	41
11	Dimitrov	41
12	Raonic	41
13	Thiem	41
14	Tsitsipas	41
15	Wawrinka	41
16	AMurray	51
17	DMedvedev	67
18	Shapovalov	67
19	Goffin	67
20	BautistaAgut	67
21	DeMinaur	101
22	Berdych	101
23	Isner	101
24	Chung	101
25	Edmund	101
26	Tsonga	126
27	Sock	151
28	Querrey	151
29	Rublev	201
30	Pouille	201
31	Monfils	201
32	Fognini	201