2019 Australian Open Women’s Draw
Preview
11 Jan 2019 – Charles Friesen
There are probably 25 women who could be reasonably predicted
to hoist the 2019 Australian Open trophy.
This is a staggering degree of parity – more like golf than tennis. It has made for an interesting cast of
characters for fans to follow with rivalries, playing styles, and personalities
to suit every taste. But one woman
stands out. Though past the prime age of
most players, though she hasn’t won a slam or any other tournament for two
years, though she is ranked only #16 by the WTA computer, Serena Williams is
still the favourite. And with 23 slam
titles to her credit, it’s easy to see why the bookies have her at their
shortest odds of all players. She may
have lost a step, the next generation may have learned to hit with her power,
but her ferocity, drive, and sheer talent make her the opponent players most
fear.
But with Serena’s increasing inconsistency, others have
seized the opportunity to claim slam laurels.
The last eight slams have seen eight different winners. One more will tie the record set in
1938. And there are plenty of candidates
for a ninth consecutive different winner:
the bookies list five women who have not won a slam in the last two
years among their top eight choices for the title. They are Sabalenka, Svitolina, KaPliskova,
Barty, and Kvitova.
First Quarter
The world #1 and top seed, Simona Halep, is ranked only
ninth by the bookies on their favourite list.
She was runner-up last year, and quarter-finalist twice before – so why
the lack of love? Halep finally won a
slam last year, in her fourth appearance in a final. It was the achievement of a life-long
goal. Will she still have the same
desire to fight? She arrives in
Australia without a coach, on the mend from a back injury, and with
questionable motivation. To top it off,
her first round opponent is Kaia Kanepi whose big-hitting game knocked Halep
out of the first round of the last slam.
It’s a recipe for disaster.
Should Simona survive, she could get Sofia Kenin in the
second round, a young up and comer who has been shooting up the ranks. The third could pit her against Venus
Williams, the seven-time slam winner is admittedly 38, but was finalist here
only two years ago. Venus will have to
get past Mihkaela Buzarnescu (seeded 25) in the first round, who had a career
year last year.
Next in the draw is Serena’s section. Teenage Dayana Yastremska has blipped onto
the radar in the last six months and could provide a stiff tussle for Serena in
the third round, as could Carla Suarez Navarro (23).
The second highest seed in this quarter is Karolina Pliskova
(7) who has been re-finding her best form in the last four months. Seventeen-year old Iga Swiatek or Camila
Giorgi (27) could challenge Pliskova in the third round. The fourth round could bring up Daria
Kasatkina (10), Garbine Muguruza (18), or Johanna Konta who has been to the
quarters of the Aus Open twice.
Muguruza is one of the last eight slam winners, claiming
Wimbledon over Venus in 2017. She was
named #1 for 2017 but has fallen precipitously since then. Her MO in her two previous slam victories was
to win out of nowhere, when she appeared least likely to do so. She certainly fits that bill now. Kasatkina is only 21 and had a banner year
last year, rising to the top 10 and claiming a title near year’s end.
SWilliams def. KaPliskova
Second Quarter
Naomi Osaka’s (4) ability to out-hit and run down Serena’s
shots in the US Open final was a revelation.
In typically transparent and charming fashion she confessed to a bad
attitude in her loss last week. Will the
hitter or the pouter turn up in Melbourne?
She could face two-time former champ Victoria Azarenka in the third
round, but Azarenka will have to get by dangerous Laura Siegemund first.
The fourth round could present Osaka with Anastasia
Sevastova (13), Qiang Wang (21), or Canadian teenage sensation (how many of
these are the Canadians hiding??) Bianca Andreescu who made the final last week
in Auckland from qualifying. The eightteen
year old Andreescu plays an even younger 16-year old Whitney Osuigwe in what
must surely be the youngest first round of the tournament.
Elise Mertens (12) won three tournaments last year and lands
in the same group as Madison Keys (17).
Keys made two semis and a quarter in the slams last year and is ranked
low because of missing time due to injury.
Keys big-hitting game looks a sure thing for future slam success, but
her inability to close tournaments does give pause. Nearby is Anastasia Potapova, 17 years old,
and a potentially dangerous opponent.
The last grouping in this section contains former runner-up
Cibulkova (26), young and rising Victoria Kuzmova, and Elina Svitolina
(6). Svitolina is a puzzling case. She has been one of the most consistent
performers on the tour claiming more titles, nine, than anyone else in the last
two years. She claimed her biggest title
in October at the tour finals, but has consistently under-performed at the
slams, not unlike Alexander Zverev on the men’s tour. Will she finally turn it around? She’ll have a tough time if she has to face
Keys and Osaka just to get out of the quarter.
Osaka def Keys
Third Quarter
Petra Kvitova (8) seems to like winning tournaments just
before slams, raising everyone’s expectations, and then bombing on the big
stage. She hasn’t been past the third round
here in six years or past the quarters at any slam since her second Wimbledon
victory, in 2014. One can only wonder
why. Belinda Bencic and Yulia Putintseva
are both nearby and dangerous enough to unseat Kvitova. If Petra makes it that far, her fourth round
could bring up Aryna Sabalenka (11).
Sabalenka has been on a tear, claiming three titles in the
last five months. The bookies have her as
their number three pick for the title.
She is on fire. She’s only 20
years old and we’re all watching to see what she is capable of. She lost a fourth round nail-biter to Osaka
at last year’s US Open. Can she do
better now? This slam title seems well
within her reach, but an early round loss would not surprise either. But I’m expecting big things.
Sabalenka could face 17-year old Amanda Anisimova in the
third round or Ekaterina Makarova in the second. The 60th ranked Makarova
over-performs in Melbourne, having made it to the second week seven times with
wins over Serena, Venus, Halep, Kerber, and Pliskova.
Also in this quarter are seeds Barty (15), Ostapenko (22),
Sharapova (30), and defending champion Wozniacki (3). Wozniacki appeared back to her winning ways
by taking the 1000 in Beijing, but didn’t face a player ranked above 20. In the WTA Finals she lost two of three matches
to her fellow top-tenners.
There seems no reason that Sharapova shouldn’t start winning
again, except that she hasn’t. Ostapenko
has been mostly floundering since her French victory in 2017, although semis at
Wimbledon show the 21-year old may rise again.
Ash Barty just made the final in Sydney taking out four top shelf
opponents along the way: Halep, Ostapenko, Mertens, and Bertens. Barty also won the Zhuhai tournament in
October.
Sabalenka def. Wozniacki
Fourth Quarter
Sloane Stephens (5) and Angelique Kerber (2) headline the
bottom quarter. Stephens made the final
of the WTA Finals but has been inconsistent out of the gates this year. There’s no denying her talent; where will her
head be? Sasnovich, Kontaveit (20) or
Bertens (9) could meet Sloane in the fourth round.
The other fourth round could pit the defensive genius of
Kerber against the deadly forehand of Julia Goerges (14). Goerges owns seven career titles but had not
loved the slams, having only once made a quarter-final, last year at
Wimbledon. Is she ready for more?
Kerber def. Stephens
Semis
After Serena’s meltdown in the US Open final, if Osaka and
Serena square off in this tournament, media attention will be high. Osaka owns an unimpeachable 2-0 record over
Serena. I expect Serena to be out for
revenge. Will her indomitable will be
enough to tame Osaka’s power game? Keys
and Pliskova are also reasonable candidates to make this semi.
SWilliams d Osaka
Kerber has now been in four slam finals, winning three of
them. Her defensive-offensive game and
focus are admirable, but she can still get overwhelmed by big hitters. And Sabalenka is a big hitter. Will the height of the occasion intimidate
the 20-year old? Sabalenka has looked
incredibly poised during her run of the last few months, but she is unproven at
the slams.
Sabalenka def. Kerber
Final
Will Serena be satisfied in her quest for a 24th
slam title, tying Margaret Court? She’s
been in the final of the last two majors and has had plenty of time to
train. She looked very solid at the
Hopman Cup last week. Sabalenka will
have the hunger and fearlessness of the slam novitiate to propel her. The big-hitting game she plays is not unlike
Osaka’s. She should have plenty of
chances to claim slam titles.
SWilliams def. Sabalenka.
Decimal odds from bet365.com on 10 Jan 2019
|
1
|
SWilliams
|
5.5
|
|
2
|
Kerber
|
9
|
|
3
|
Sabalenka
|
12
|
|
4
|
Osaka
|
13
|
|
5
|
Svitolina
|
15
|
|
6
|
KaPliskova
|
15
|
|
7
|
Barty
|
17
|
|
8
|
Kvitova
|
17
|
|
9
|
Halep
|
21
|
|
10
|
Stephens
|
21
|
|
11
|
Wozniacki
|
26
|
|
12
|
Bertens
|
26
|
|
13
|
Keys
|
29
|
|
14
|
Muguruza
|
29
|
|
15
|
Azarenka
|
41
|
|
16
|
Goerges
|
41
|
|
17
|
Mertens
|
51
|
|
18
|
Kontaveit
|
51
|
|
19
|
Sharapova
|
51
|
|
20
|
Kasatkina
|
51
|
|
21
|
Sevastova
|
51
|
|
22
|
Ostapenko
|
67
|
|
23
|
QWang
|
67
|
|
24
|
VWilliams
|
67
|
|
25
|
Garcia
|
67
|
|
26
|
Konta
|
81
|
|
27
|
Bencic
|
81
|
|
28
|
Vekic
|
101
|
|
29
|
Sasnovich
|
101
|
|
30
|
Bouchard
|
101
|
|
31
|
Yastremska
|
126
|
|
32
|
Cibulkova
|
126
|
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