The State of Women’s Tennis and What to Expect in 2019

The State of Women’s Tennis and What to Expect in 2019

30 Dec 2018
Charles Friesen

It’s a contradiction.  One the one hand we have a dominant Serena Williams, and on the other a crop of mostly young stars who increasingly claim all the top prizes.  Understanding the WTA is not easy.  Log onto any bookies website before a tournament in which Serena is entered, and she is guaranteed to be the odds-on favourite.  Yet she is ranked 15^th on the WTA computer. 

Serena played in the Wimbledon and US Open finals this year.  Just getting to the final of two slams indicates a player of the highest echelon.  But she didn’t win a tournament all year for the first time in 12 years, and she only played seven tournaments.  And therein lies the explanation of her low ranking – in a year in which she returned from giving birth, she didn’t play enough to accumulate the points to be ranked higher.

Serena will be 37 for most of the coming year and a mother.  She will not likely play a full schedule, but I do expect her to prioritize the slams where she is still one shy of Margaret Court’s record of 24.  Really, Serena shouldn’t sweat that record because several of Court’s slams were won against weak fields, and certainly the Australian title, of which Court won 11, did not have the status it does today.  Serena’s slam work is surely the most impressive in history.  But numbers are merciless and it appears Serena cares about this one.  Serena may be as fierce as ever, witness her US Open final melt down, but the rest of the field is catching up in skill.  Serena is capable of winning any tournament she enters, but due to the vagaries of age, I think claiming only one slam in 2019 is probably a realistic prediction.

So that leaves a lot of prizes for the rest of the field.  And there is a raft of very legitimate contenders for them – slam winners, former #1’s, and rising stars.  These split into more proven and more recent cohorts. The proven stars are names like Halep, Wozniacki, Kerber, Muguruza, Kvitova, and even Sharapova and Azarenka.  They hold 16 slam titles among them and are all former year-end #1’s by some measure.

The more recent group includes Stephens, Keys, Svitolina, and a very healthy contingent of 21-and-under talents like Osaka, Ostapenko, Kasatkina, and Sabalenka.  They may not have reached #1 but these are the women set to rock the game in 2019 and beyond.  All told that’s 14 women plus Serena, and there are a few other dangerous floaters like Karolina Pliskova, Bertens, Garcia, and Konta.  And chances are 2019 will add some names to that list of legitimate contenders.

The story of 2018

The year opened with a fairy-tale final between Caroline Wozniacki and Simona Halep at the Australian Open.  Neither of these former computer-year-end #1’s had won a slam title, despite four prior finalist appearances between them.  Turns out it was Wozniacki’s turn to wear the glass slipper and finally shake the slam monkey from her back.  She claimed a long and grueling final, 6-4 in the third set.

The first of the year’s big nine 900/1000 tournaments (that’s how many points are available to the winner) was the 900 in Doha.  It featured the familiar names of Kvitova and Muguruza in the final round and was one of five titles for Kvitova – a feat unmatched by her rivals.

Player	2019 Titles	Points from Titles
Kvitova	5	3120
Svitolina	4	3340
Wozniacki	3	3470
Halep	3	3180
Bertens	3	1650
Mertens	3	840
Osaka	2	3000
Kerber	2	2470
Sabalenka, KaPliskova, Goerges, QWang, Parmentier	2	1370, 940, 560, 560, 560

The 1000 in Indian Wells featured then-20-year-olds Osaka and Kasatkina in the final.  Osaka followed up her win by defeating Serena in the first round of the 1000 in Miami.  It was a harbinger of things to come.  The Miami final was contested between two slam champs from 2017, Ostapenko and Stephens.  The win moved Stephens to 6-0 in tour-level finals.

Moving to clay, Karolina Pliskova won the title from the always-loaded field in Stuttgart.  Kvitova took the 1000 title in Madrid over Bertens.  It proved to be a breakout year for 26-year old Bertens.  She had already claimed the 470 in Charleston and would go on to a dramatic come from behind victory on the hard courts of the 900 in Cincinnati over Halep.  The 900 in Rome was a repeat of last year with Svitolina taking the crown over Halep.

Heading into the French Open, Kvitova and Svitolina appeared to be red-hot with 4 and 3 titles respectively, including the two biggest on clay.  Both lost disappointingly in the third round.  Svitolina has not thriven at the slams, with her best result being quarter-finals, three times.  Kvitova has, if anything, been more puzzling.  Since her second title at Wimbledon (2014), she has made only two slam quarters, and not been past the third round at Wimbledon.  She claimed five titles in the first half of the year and none in the last half.  Hopefully she finds her way back.

The long-awaited legitimizing of Halep’s quest for slam-glory finally manifested in her fourth slam final.  She had been in fine form all year, likes clay, and played well through the tournament.  But things looked ominous against the flawless 6-0 finals record of Stephens.  Sloane raced to a set and a break lead, but Halep dug in, Stephens got tight, and Simona finally achieved vindication at Stade Roland Garros.

In the brief grass-court run-up to Wimbledon, Kvitova and Wozniacki claimed the 470s in Birmingham and Eastbourne.  However, both were gone by Wimbledon’s second round.  Rather we were treated to a replay of the 2016 final between Angelique Kerber and Serena Williams.  This time the result was reversed and Kerber claimed a very impressive third slam title.

Active players	Slam titles
Serena Williams	23
Venus Williams	7
Sharapova	5
Kerber	3
Azarenka, Kuznetsova, Kvitova, Muguruza	2
Halep, Osaka, Ostapenko, Stephens, Stosur, Wozniacki	1

On North American hard courts, Halep made the finals of the two 900’s in Canada and Cincinnati.  In Montreal it was a rematch of the French final against Stephens with the same result, a victory for Halep.  In Cincy it looked like she would pull off the rare double at these two events.  It’s only been done twice before:  by Evonne Goolagong in 1973 and Midge Gladman in 1929.  But after a strong start from Halep, Bertens settled down and put on a fine display of power tennis to claim the title – a surprise from this erstwhile clay courter.

On the back of such fine performances, Halep was a favourite of the bookies leading into the US Open, tied with Kerber but just behind Serena.  Sure enough, Serena marched to the final but few had predicted her opponent would be the big-hitting but hitherto inconsistent Naomi Osaka.  Osaka bubbled her way through press conferences and was becoming a media darling.  She came out blasting in the final, trading lasers with Serena in what turned out to be a 62 64 thumping of the established queen.

The match will long be remembered for Serena’s meltdown.  It started with a coaching violation call from umpire Carlos Ramos, a call made inconsistently on the tour and that probably should not have been made in a match of this magnitude.  Serena took offense, things escalated and she lost point and eventually game.  The crowd was displeased and booed during the trophy ceremony, which it appeared Osaka thought was directed at her.  If anything the booing was directed at Ramos.  Serena had the presence of mind to shush the crowd, request no more booing, and ask that everyone celebrate Osaka’s victory.  This striking maturity was in stark contrast to her infantile tantrum and shows what a complex person Serena is.  The shame of it all is that at no point did Osaka look happy during the trophy presentation.  I have never seen another slam final in which the winner was not elated at the end.  Her victory was robbed of its joy.  But with the game she displayed, chances look good that Osaka will have another chance to taste the sweetness of slam laurels. 

Osaka was the third new slam winner of 2018, along with Halep and Wozniacki.  She was also the eighth consecutive different slam winner – no woman having claimed two within the last two years.  The last time this was exceeded was 1939 when there were 9 different consecutive winners. (It also happened in 1909 when only Wimbledon and the US Open of the modern slams were being played and the concept of ‘majors’ was not yet in existence).

The last portion of the calendar was notable for bringing some new names to the fore.  Wang Qiang made four finals in China, including the Elite Finals, claiming two of them and rising into the world’s top 20. 

Also making four finals was 20-year old Aryna Sabalenka.  She claimed the 900 in Wuhan over Kontaveit and finishes the year at #13.  She looks like a force to be reckoned with for 2019.

Daria Kasatkina found the presence of mind to finally win, in her third final of 2018, this one in Moscow.  And 18-year old Dayana Yastremska beat Wang for the title in Hong Kong.  It would be remiss not to mention Elise Mertens, Buzarnescu, Sevastova, and Goerges, all of whom made three finals this year, with Mertens claiming all three.  Pauline Parmentier won both finals she played, and 17 year-old Anastasia Potapova showed promise by making two finals in 2018.

Sloane Stephens wrapped up a banner year with her fourth final at the 900 level or higher, in the Tour Finals in Singapore.  But she was beaten there by Elina Svitolina who redeemed the second half of her year by claiming the biggest title of her career.  Svitolina was four for four in finals and finishes at #4.

Ash Barty won the Elite Finals, her second title in three finals this year.  She rises to a career high #15 at yearend.  Lastly, the Czechs won their sixth Fed Cup in the last eight years.  For the first time in the Open Era (since 1968) the United States claimed only one singles title on the WTA tour, that of Sloane Stephens at Miami.

Rankings

Times are ‘a-changin’.  For the first time since 1998, the three most-prolific slam-winners currently playing did not claim so much as a single WTA title among them; namely, Serena, Venus, and Sharapova. It’s also the first time since 1998 none of them appear in the yearend top ten.  I won’t be foolish and say these three will never win again, but clearly, the game is moving on.

My yearend rankings mirror the WTA’s rankings.  I was sorely tempted to raise Serena into the #10 spot based on her finalist appearances at Wimbledon and the US Open, and she did finish at #7 on the money list.  But her failure to claim a title of any kind had me desisting.

Yearend rank	2018	Last year
1	Halep	(1)
2	Kerber	(21)
3	Wozniacki	(3)
4	Svitolina	(6)
5	Osaka	(68)
6	Stephens	(13)
7	KaPliskova	(4)
8	Kvitova	(29)
9	Bertens	(31)
10	Kasatkina	(24)

Perhaps the most stunning decline is last year’s ITF and WTA #1, Garbine Muguruza, who falls to #18 from a computer ranking of #2.  Also leaving the yearend top 10 are VWilliams, Ostapenko, Garcia, Konta, and Vandeweghe.  In addition to the computer #1, both the ITF and WTA named Simona Halep their #1 player for the year.

What we might expect in 2019

In 2018 it felt like Serena was re-finding her footing.  I expect she will be much more effective in 2019.  She played only seven events, but three of them were slams.  Looking at just WTA points accumulated in slam tournaments, Serena has the third highest total for the year.

Player	Slam points 2018
Halep	3440
Kerber	3340
SWilliams	2840
Osaka	2500
Wozniacki	2380

This is an indication of how greatly Serena is prioritizing the slams.  In the last full year she played before giving birth, 2016, Serena played only three tournaments outside of the slams and the Olympics.  She is still formidable, but at 37 she looks half a step slower, and the younger generation is starting to match her power.  Of course it’s possible she could win every tournament she enters, but I think a slam and maybe one other are a more realistic expectation.

After Serena, it gets a lot more murky.  Halep has been the computer yearend #1 the last two years, making three slam finals during that time.  She looks like a solid bet for more except that I’m not sure she isn’t going to experience a letdown after finally claiming a slam title.  Will she fight with the same ferocity this year?

Kerber might be a good pick for another banner year.  She slumped after her stunning two-slam run in 2016, but showed she was back with a Wimbledon title and #2 yearend ranking.  And Sloane Stephens did not go away after her breakout year of 2017, making four 900 or better finals, including the French final.  Wozniacki appeared to be doing a predictable fade after her slam triumph, making only the second round at both Wimbledon and the US Open.  But then she turned around and won the 1000 in Beijing.

Osaka may have a sophomore slump in 2019, the way fellow-21-year-old Ostapenko did in 2018, but I have a feeling Osaka may do better and fare more like Stephens did this year.  Speaking of Ostapenko, a stronger year from her would not be a surprise. Another youngster I have unfairly high expectations for is Aryna Sabalenka.  She currently tops the ELO rankings kept at Tennis Abstract.  ELO rankings are a well-established system that ranks players on the quality of their opponents, ‘who’ they play, instead of assigning points based on tournament level.  The men’s ELO rankings look quite what might be expected:  1. Djokovic, 2. Nadal, 3. Federer, 4. Del Potro, 5. AZverev.  However the women’s top five shows just how much parity is in the women’s game of late.  The margins are razor-thin.

ELO rank	Player	ELO points
1	Sabalenka	2051
2	Svitolina	2046
3	Barty	2042
4	Wozniacki	2029
5	Halep	2009

Sabalenka and Barty are outside of the WTA top 10, although the other three are in the WTA top five.  It’s hard to know how much credence to give these rankings.  They in no way account for how players will fare in big match situations with titles on the line, but they do indicate how a player might play against big names.  Barty has a lovely game but has seemed to get tight when opportunity presented itself at slams. However I am more optimistic for the youthful Sabalenka who capped a four-final year with the 900 title in Wuhan.

These then are my top seven women:  Serena, Halep, Kerber, Stephens, Wozniacki, Osaka, and Sabalenka.  These are the seven I expect will most likely claim the biggest titles of 2019. I think many pundits might agree with me, although I might get some raised eyebrows for Sabalenka.

My next group of eight are just a whisker behind the first seven:  Svitolina, Kvitova, Muguruza, Ostapenko, Sharapova, KaPliskova, Kasatkina, and Keys.  It would surprise no one to see them winning the most significant trophies, however I deem them just slightly less likely to do so than the first seven.  Svitolina has not done well at slams. Kvitova used to do well at slams, but hasn’t for four years.  With two slams already and last year’s deemed #1 ranking, Muguruza certainly has the potential to be at the top, but she really lost her way in 2018.  Ostapenko slumped after her breakout in 2017.  Can she find her way back?  Sharapova has not regained her top level since testing positive for Meldonium in 2016.  Karolina Pliskova continues to look promising, but seemed to fall a step behind her 2017 level.  Kasatkina finally found a way to win a final.  Can she do it again?  Madison Keys had a decent year at the slams making the semis of both Roland Garros and the US Open.  She also made the quarters of the Australian, but didn’t do well elsewhere.  Despite these shortcomings, this group of eight has the potential to insert themselves into the highest echelon of the game, and some like Muguruza, Sharapova, and Kvitova already have.

And there are some other very serious contenders who deserve mention:  Venus Williams, Azarenka, Bertens, Mertens, Barty, Garcia, Qiang Wang, Sevastova.  All told it’s a talent-deep group of top players and parity seems the rule of the day.

Here’s my predicted top 10 for 2019:

Yearend rank	2019
1	Kerber
2	Halep
3	SWilliams
4	Wozniacki
5	Osaka
6	Stephens
7	Sabalenka
8	Svitolina
9	Muguruza
10	Kasatkina

The only reason I don’t have Serena at #1 is my belief that she won’t play enough tournaments to accumulate sufficient points.  I believe she will be the best slam player of 2019.  I have Kerber at #1 because of her proven slam record and her apparent hunger for more.  Halep has been too good to rank lower.  Even when she doesn’t win, she usually goes deep and accumulates lots of ranking points, however I believe she is unlikely to claim another slam in 2019.

It was very tough to exclude Kvitova, Ostapenko, Sharapova, KaPliskova, and Keys from this list.  These are rich times.

Looking at young players who might make a mark, Dayana Yastremska has reached #58 and is 18 years old.  She won a 280 point event near the end of the year in Hong Kong.  Anastasia Potapova, Amanda Anisimova, and Olga Danilovic are all 17 and ranked #s 93, 96, and 108 respectively.  They all look promising and could assault the top 30 or so in the coming year.

Marta Kostyuk was only 15 when she made a splash at the Australian Open, winning five matches out of qualifying.  Now 16 and ranked 119, she could make more waves in 2019.  Also 16 is Whitney Osuigwe.  She’s ranked 208 but could start to make an impression in 2019.

Let the games begin!