Aus Open Men’s Draw Preview

The press have not been this united in condemning a player, in this case the unvaccinated Novak Djokovic, since Naomi Osaka announced she wouldn’t be doing press at the last French Open.  In that case, they’ve since largely recanted, pretending they weren’t outraged, as evidence of Osaka’s mental health struggles surfaced.  It will be interesting to see how minor a footnote Djokovic’s possible deportation will seem in two weeks time, let alone in a year.  If Djokovic should miss this slam he’ll join a long list of very good players who are not playing, including Federer, Wawrinka, Thiem, Del Potro, Tsonga, Nishikori, and Raonic – all of whom are at least slam finalists.

 

First Quarter

Temporarily, Djokovic (seeded 1) is the top seed, but he could be replaced by either Rublev or a lucky loser depending on the timing of his probable withdrawal.  But assuming he plays, will he be at his best in front of a likely hostile crowd?  The nine-time champion is undoubtedly the favourite for this quarter. His stiffest challenges are likely to come from seventh seed Matteo Berrettini, or Carlos Alcaraz.  Berrettini was a finalist at Wimbledon and pushed Djokovic to four sets.  He’s looked a little below that level since, but with the fresh start of a new year, anything is possible.  Gael Monfils (17) won last week in Adelaide.  He’s 0 and 17 against Djokovic, but a distracted Djokovic might finally mean a first win for Gael.  Carlos Alcaraz (31) gets his first seeding in a slam tournament.  The kid has got talent.  He’s largely unpolished, but his smooth game, power, determination, and swagger could take him deep. If Djokovic doesn’t play, I’ll pick Alcaraz over Monfils for the quarter.  But if Novak plays…

Djokovic d Alcaraz

 

Second Quarter

Rafael Nadal is only the 6^th seed, after missing nearly half of 2021.  His ferocious mental talents and well-rounded game put him on the short-list for the title.  He’s only won once here before, in five trips to the final, amid 13 quarter-final or better showings.  So something about the surface does not click well with his game.  But if Novak is out, expect Rafa to double-down on the opportunity to take the lead in the slam derby. Last year’s surprise, Aslan Karatsev (18), and Hubert Hurkacz (10) both have potent games that could derail Nadal in a potential fourth round meeting.  Karatsev just took the title in Sydney today.

Denis Shapovalov (14) will still be on a high from winning the ATP Cup team competition with compatriot Felix Auger-Aliassime.  He has undeniable talent but struggles with wisely deploying it. Like Nadal, Alexander Zverev (3) is a favourite for the title.  He’s batting .871 in match wins since Wimbledon, claiming the Olympics and ATP Finals.  When he’s “on” I’d make him the favourite over Djokovic, Medvedev, or Nadal – but he can get tight in big-match situations, especially at the slams.  He has a real chance to take the title here.

AZverev d Nadal

 

Third Quarter

This is probably the most wide open quarter in the draw.  The top seed, Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) was brilliant in the first two slams of last year, but there are questions about an elbow injury and he hasn’t looked in the last six months to be quite the mental giant he can sometimes be. Dangerous but unpredictable Grigor Dimitrov (26) is nearby in the draw, along with Taylor Fritz (20), Frances Tiafoe, and Roberto Bautista Agut (15).  Any of whom have the talent to emerge from this quarter.

The quarter’s other half houses Casper Ruud (8), Jannik Sinner (11), and dangerous wildcard Andy Murray.  Murray is a five-time finalist here and just made the final in Sydney.  He’s on the comeback trail, but I doubt is far enough along it to actually threaten for the title.  Ruud had a break-out year last year, claiming five titles, and is showing increasing aptitude on hard courts.  Jannik Sinner has been taking steady steps upward, and the 20-year old has established himself in the top 10.  There is the potential to go much higher, and while he could upset one of the top players, he’s probably not a title contender yet.

Sinner d Tsitsipas

 

Fourth Quarter

Andrey Rublev had a great year in 2021 and finds himself the fifth seed.  If Djokovic is withdrawn before the order of play comes out, he will occupy the first slot of the top quarter. Regardless, his form has looked dodgy the last few months.  Marin Cilic (27) and Dan Evans (24) could be factors in this quarter and should not be underestimated - nor should Felix Auger-Aliassime (9).  Felix clinched the ATP Cup for Canada and beat Zverev along the way.  He still seems a little unpolished at times, but the potential of his flashy game has not diminished.

Daniil Medvedev (2) seems like the man of the moment, having derailed Djokovic’s bid for the Grand Slam, claiming his own slam title, and leading his country to the Davis Cup.  But he’s got some potential landmines in the draw.  He could face Nick Kyrgios in round two, and Ugo Humbert (29) in round three.  Medvedev has losing 0-2 records against both of them.  But such is his talent, drive, and recent form, that I expect nothing will stand in his way.

DMedvedev d Auger-Aliassime

 

Semis and Final

Semis:  AZverev d Djokovic (or Alcaraz), DMedevedev d Sinner

Final:  DMedvedev d AZverev

 

Odds and experts

The writers at tennis.com have named their projected winners, 3 for Medvedev, 1 each for Djokovic, Zverev, and Bautista Agut.  Jon Wertheim at Sports Illustrated has picked Zverev.

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 13 Jan 2021 (in the order they are listed):

1	DMedvedev	2.5
2	Djokovic	2.5
3	AZverev	4
4	Nadal	11
5	Tsitsipas	21
6	Sinner	21
7	Rublev	34
8	Alcaraz	41
9	Berrettini	51
10	AugerAliassime	51
11	CaRuud	67
12	Hurkacz	67
13	Shapovalov	81
14	AMurray	81
15	Norrie	101
16	Kyrgios	101
17	BautistaAgut	101
18	Khachanov	126
19	Schwartzman	151
20	Opelka	151
21	Monfils	151
22	Karatsev	151
23	Dimitrov	151
24	Cilic	151
25	Paul	201
26	SKorda	201
27	Kokkinakis	201
28	Kohlschreiber	201
29	Humbert	201
30	Harris	201
31	Fritz	201
32	Evans	201
33	DeMinaur	201
34	Cressy	201
35	CarrenoBusta	201