Women’s Tennis – 2021 Yearend Report and Predictions

 

Women’s Tennis – 2021 Yearend Report and Predictions

 

The thing is, I love going back and reading my old summary and predictions posts.  So in a way, I’m writing this for my future self.  And although my future self wants as much detail as possible, my present writer-self wants to streamline…

 

There is a clear #1 for 2021, but the story of the year is far more than Ashleigh Barty – because there was a large cast of characters in the WTA movie of 2021, and it sure was entertaining.  Somehow there are 19 active players who have won singles slams, yet only four of them are in the current top ten.  There seems to be an unending parade of talent ready to snatch up new slams.

 

Story of 2021

The start of the year seems like a lifetime ago – remember when Naomi Osaka was invincible in mind, body, and tennis, and Serena was threatening for the Aus Open title?  After losing in early February of 2020, Osaka went on a 13-month win streak to the end of March 21 in the quarter-finals of Miami.  During that streak she claimed two slam titles, at the US and Australian Opens, and with 4 slams total, became the most relevant and marketable star in the game.

 

In rolling-12-month rankings, like the normal rankings that have existed since computer rankings began in tennis, Osaka would have re-gained #1 in mid-Sep of 2020 for four weeks before losing it to Sofia Kenin.  Then Osaka would have reached #1 again in mid-Feb 2021 after her AO triumph, and held that ranking until Barty reclaimed it after Wimbledon.

 

But of course, that didn’t happen because the ‘frozen’ covid-adjusted rankings had Barty at #1 throughout.  And although Barty would only have been #12 in 12-month rankings on Jan 1, she seemed set to prove to all that her #1 frozen ranking was justified.  She won eight straight matches and a tournament in Australia before losing twice.  She then defended her title in Miami (from 2019), capping it with a signature win over a resurrecting Bianca Andreescu.

 

As Andreescu worked her way through that Miami draw, battling through tough three-setters, it was shades of her near-invincibility from 2019.  Had she somehow managed to win against Barty (Bianca retired injured, down a set and a break), one wonders if the boost in confidence might have propelled Bianca back into the top ten.  Instead, she climbed only to #40 in the yearend Race.

 

Barty then went on to win Stuttgart, make the final of Madrid, and win Wimbledon and Cincinnati.  The Wimbledon win all but cemented her position atop the yearend rankings and Cincy made it official.  She finishes 2021 with a second slam title, the most WTA points for the year, the most WTA titles, and the best match winning percentage.

 

	2021 WTA Race points
Barty	6411
Sabalenka	5267
Krejcikova	4880
KaPliskova	4660
Muguruza	4570
Sakkari	3965

 

	2021 WTA titles	Finals	Points from finals
Barty	5	6	5490
Kontaveit	4	7	3190
Muguruza	3	5	3480
Krejcikova	3	4	3145

 

	2021 Match-win loss*	Ratio
Barty	42-8	5.25
Azarenka	28-9	3.11
Osaka	18-6	3.00
Kontaveit	48-17	2.82
Collins	40-15	2.67
Badosa	43-17	2.53

*only matches from main-draws of 250 and higher tournaments

 

Aryna Sabalenka continued to show she could win tournaments, taking Abu Dhabi in January and Madrid in May, but her struggles at the slams continued.  But then, she finally, finally made a slam quarter-final on her 15^th attempt, at Wimbledon, winning it and making her first semi as well.  And she repeated that feat at the US Open.  She advances to #2 in the world and no longer looks like a fringe top-ten player, but instead, a legitimate slam contender.

 

While the slam wins by Osaka and Barty were hardly surprising, the other two slam wins were among the most improbable in recent memory.  Barbora Krejcikova, an unnoticed doubles specialist ranked #65 at last yearend rose out of obscurity in only her fifth slam main-draw to claim the title at Roland Garros.  And then of course Emma Raducanu, who was a qualifier and had never won a main draw match on the WTA tour, won the US Open.  As surprising, were their opponents, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in Paris, and Leylah Fernandez in New York.

 

To finish the year, Annett Kontaveit suddenly won four tournaments in the last few months and made the final of the WTA Finals.  There she lost to Garbine Muguruza who seems to be returning to the banner form that has taken her to two slam titles.

 

And yet this only touches on the wide cast of 2021.  Time for a more in-depth look at players and what may lie ahead for them.

 

Players – Plaudits and Expectations

Ash Barty – After taking most of 2020 off, Barty appeared to be head and shoulders above her peers and finishes the year a decisive #1.  Yet she did not seem dominant.  It was her losses that were not particularly convincing – they made her look vulnerable.  And yet I don’t see another player capable of taking over the #1 position – except for Naomi Osaka, perhaps.  So another slam title and yearend #1 seem plausible for Barty.

 

Naomi Osaka – After looking invincible at the start of the year, the cracks started to show at the start of the French Open with Osaka’s announcement that she would not be doing press.  The press attacked her with typical and expected fury – how dare she?!?  They were perhaps complicit in driving her out of the game as her mental health issues became apparent.  A more understanding welcome might have changed her outcome.  I hope that she returns to tennis in 2022.  If she does, she has the game to contend for the biggest prizes.  However I don’t think she’ll make #1 because it will take time to come back.

 

Aryna Sabalenka – She made strides in 2021.  She’s always been able to win titles, but her under-performance at the slams had become noticeable – having never been past the 4^th round.  So two semi-final finishes, at Wimbledon and the US Open, were a milestone.  Can she continue to go further? Although she’s only 23, she’s not young in tennis years.  She looked like a more mentally sound player this year. She should make a slam final at some point in her career, but can she go all the way?

 

Garbine Muguruza – started the year strongly, holding match point on Osaka at the Australian, making two 500 finals, and taking the 1000 in Dubai, before the end of March.  Mid-year was a fallow period, and then she started to assert herself in October, taking the 500 in Chicago and then going all the way to the Tour Finals title in Guadalajara – the next biggest thing to a slam.  Her increase in form and general happiness are good signs for next year.  A third slam win might be possible, but will she be able to sustain the momentum of 2021 across the calendar divide into the new year?  She’s on my short list for a slam title this year, maybe around 50-50.

 

Barbora Krejcikova – had perhaps a more surprising year than even Raducanu.  Whereas Raducanu is a new talent so anything seems possible, Krejcikova was an established veteran of 25, mired around 100 in the singles ranking.  That she should suddenly rise up to the heights of the game, a slam title and the #3 ranking, is stunning.  She claimed three singles titles all told, and 3.6 million in prize money – more than doubling her career total, which had been gained largely through doubles.  The question now is whether 2021 was a fluke of if she will settle into a higher level, and if so, what level will that be?  Will she contend for slam titles and the #1 ranking? Or become a fixture in the top 10? Or maybe top 20?  Based on end of year form, I’m guessing that the top 10 might be her destiny for next year.  She’s a known quantity now and won’t have the element of surprise any longer.  Other players will be gunning for her scalp.

 

2021 Prize Money
1	Barty	$3,945,182
2	Krejcikova	$3,646,883
3	Sabalenka	$2,909,281
4	KaPliskova	$2,868,865
5	Muguruza	$2,846,871
6	Raducanu	$2,807,446
7	Badosa	$2,655,962
8	Osaka	$2,306,222

 

Karolina Pliskova – came oh so close in 2021.  She made her second slam final, at Wimbledon, but despite taking the second set, did not prevail.  She has now finished the last six years in the WTA official top ten, the longest active streak for yearend top ten finishes – Halep would have had eight years if she’d made it this year.  Both players had won at least one tournament in each of the last 8 years, but since both went titleless in 2021, the longest active streak passes to Barty who’s won at least one tournament each of the last five years.  Pliskova is winning enough to stay relevant, always in the picture, yet somehow she doesn’t seem like a legitimate slam threat to me.  It could still happen, but I’ve stopped expecting it.  She should stay in the top 10 for another year.  Is she the best active player not to win a slam?  It’s probably between her and Sabalenka.

 

Maria Sakkari – made a big jump in yearend ranking from the 20’s the past two years, to #6 this year.  She made two slam semi-finals – at the French and US Opens.  She proved something of a giant killer this year, with multiple top-ten wins and was responsible for ending a number of streaks, like Osaka’s 13-month unbeaten streak (in Miami), Swiatek at the French Open, and Andreescu at the US Open. However, she seems to have trouble closing out in the final rounds of tournaments and has only claimed one career title, two years ago in Rabat.  For next year she’ll probably linger around the top ten but I doubt a slam is in the cards.

 

Annett Kontaveit – The 26 year old had a banner year with four titles. Was this her peak, or can she rise higher?  She’s never really excelled at the slams, making only one quarter-final (2020 AO).  So she may still feel she has that itch to scratch.  Age 26 is definitely mid-career in tennis terms, although recently, many players have been hitting their highest arc around age 30.  Her run to the final of the WTA Finals shows she can go deep against the best.  Still, I won’t predict beyond a slam semi for her.

 

Paula Badosa – The 24-year old started the year ranked about 70, and had a very solid year, climbing to #27 by October.  But then her final two tournaments were transformative, taking the Indian Wells 1000 and making the semis at the WTA Finals.  Those two results account for more than 40% of her yearend points.  She has lovely ground strokes, but I’m in the dubious camp about her long term mental toughness.  I’m expecting more Caroline Garcia than Ash Barty from Badosa.  She’s still young and I hope she proves me wrong.

 

Iga Swiatek – the 2020 Roland Garros champion would have reached #2 in the world between March and July of 2021 (dropping in and out) in 12-month rolling rankings.  Despite not having a signature win on the scale of that French Open title, she did win two tournaments, notably the Rome 1000 with a love and love blitzing of Pliskova in the final.  She finishes the year at #9.  There was scant evidence of slam-winning form, but at only age 20 there seems ample room for her to yet climb the highest pinnacles of the top ranking and more slam titles.  I doubt she’ll win 20 slams in her career, or even seven, but three or four might be possible.  For 2022, she may have a reasonable chance to reach a slam final.

 

Ons Jabeur – had a break-through year, winning her first title, a 250 on grass at Birmingham; making two slam second weeks, at Roland Garros and Wimbledon; and making top ten in the yearend rankings.  She is breaking ground for Arab women, and that impact cannot be underestimated.  At age 27, I suspect this may be her peak, but you never know.

 

Emma Raducanu – did something unprecedented in winning a slam (US Open) as a qualifier.  Her only previous main-draw wins were at Wimbledon a few weeks earlier.  Though playing for the UK and of Romanian heritage, she was actually born in Canada.  At this stage, anything looks possible for the 19-year old.  The smooth, uncluttered, and powerful game she displayed in New York will certainly come under the pressure of serious scrutiny in 2022.  There are so few data points to navigate a prediction, but a sophomore slump would hardly be surprising.  Although another slam title might be in the offing, I would be less surprised to see that in 2023 than 2022.

 

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova – The Garros final was likely a career peak for the 30-year old.  She might dip into the top ten for the first time, in 2022, and while I’d love to see her actually claim a slam title, it seems unlikely.

 

Sofia Kenin – In a year plagued by ill health, the unshakeable resolve of 2020 also seemed to crumble.  After a breakout 2020 that featured a slam title, a slam runner-up, and a #1 yearend finish in the 12-month rankings, she falls into the 70’s of the 12-month rankings, (despite holding #12 in the official, frozen rankings).  She may be able to climb back into the top 20, but I suspect her game does not have enough fire-power to approach the very top again.

 

Elina Svitolina – After four years in the yearend top ten of the official WTA rankings, Svitolina slips to # 15, (#13 in the 12-month rankings).  She seemed to be finding relevance again in late summer with a title at the Chicago 250 and quarter-final showing at the US Open, but I won’t expect her to climb much higher in 2022.

 

Angelique Kerber – looked like she might claim a fourth slam title when she made the semis at Wimbledon after convincing wins over Gauff and Muchova.  But Barty claimed that vital second set tie-break in her own march to the final.  Angelique did claim a title this year, after a three-year hiatus from the winner’s circle.  Wimbledon is probably her best shot at slam glory, but such is the depth of the field, her odds are middling at best.

 

Petra Kvitova – is about to turn 32, and may be past her past tennis.  She claimed an early-year title in Doha, but did not seem much of a factor elsewhere, especially at the slams.

 

Simona Halep – began the year at #3 in the 12-month rankings and appeared in good form heading into the French Open.  But a leg injury in Rome, had her miss three months of play and drop out of the top ten for the first in more than seven years (373 weeks), a number not exceeded since Seles completed 392 consecutive weeks in February 2003.  Halep may yet contend for slam titles, particularly at the French or maybe Wimbledon, but with a host of younger stronger players crowding the top, her top ten days may be over.

 

Belinda Bencic – had a better year than her ranking suggests, since she claimed the Olympic gold medal, a tournament that offered no ranking points.  Beyond that she made two 500 finals, and the quarters at the US Open.  If the Olympics were worth 1500, or even 1000 points, she would be in the yearend top ten.  My disappointment in wondering if she will ever break through at a slam will likely continue, but she is one of those players that could just claim a slam title someday.

 

Victoria Azarenka – finishes with the second best win-loss percentage of the year, but this did not translate into ranking points either in the 12-month rankings (#20) or the official rankings (#27) due to lack of matches played (28 wins, 9 losses).  She made the final in Indian Wells but lost a third set tiebreak to Badosa.  She actually touched the #1 ranking (in the 12-month rankings) in February for three weeks, before it was reclaimed by Osaka on her Australian Open triumph.  She can threaten the best players, but the field around her is so deep, she rarely seems to reach or maintain the necessary form long enough to truly be a factor.

 

Leylah Fernandez – Her breakout year culminated as another teenage Canadian in a slam final.  Her inspiring run at the US Open saw her take out Osaka, Kerber, Svitolina, and Sabalenka.  It’s hard to know what to predict for her in 2022.  Her wins were largely based on mental strength – and that could be hard to maintain.  She’s still only 19 years old, and like Raducanu I think 2022 might entail a bit of a sophomore slump with better things to come in 2023 and beyond.

 

Jennifer Brady – was plagued by so many injuries this year, her breakout run to the final of the Australian Open has nearly been lost in the shuffle.  She missed Wimbledon and the US Open and didn’t play after August.  There seems little reason the 26 year-old couldn’t rise up again, but the increasing depth on the tour means predicting any one player’s future is extremely difficult.

 

Bianca Andreescu – undoubtedly one of the most interesting divas on tour, Andreescu’s fortunes fluctuated as wildly as her health.  She peaked in Miami (runner-up), but is set to miss the Australian, claiming mental health issues. She has world-class talent.  Will she harness it?  There’s so much depth out there, I’m tempted to say, ‘no,’ but predictability is not Bianca’s forte.

 

Serena Williams – now age 40, Serena seems still, and eternally, relevant.  Her run to the Aus Open semis shows she can still challenge the top.  I wonder how far she could have gone at Wimbledon if she had not slipped in the first round.  Despite her greatness, I have my doubts that she can again martial all her resources consistently for two weeks to claim a 24^th slam title.  The incredible depth of the field does not help her cause.  It’s not impossible, but it is unlikely.

 

Yearend Top Ten

Like last year, this year I follow the 12 month rolling rankings in recognizing the top ten performers of the year.  It seems only fair to me that yearend rankings should consider only the previous year, and not older results, like the frozen official rankings.  That said, the official rankings have nearly caught up to the 12-month rankings.  Let’s hope by the end of 2022, this nonsense will have ended.

 

12-month ranking	Player	Official (frozen) ranking	My prediction one year ago
1	Barty	1	3
2	Sabalenka	2	8
3	Krejcikova	5	>30
4	KaPliskova	4	12
5	Muguruza	3	13
6	Sakkari	6	27
7	Kontaveit	7	30
8	Badosa	8	>30
9	Swiatek	9	5
10	Jabeur	10	21

 

I only managed to successfully predict three top-tenner’s for 2021, but only two, (Krejcikova and Badosa) caught me totally by surprise and did not feature in my predictions last year. 

 

Two of this year’s slam champions do not make the top ten, Osaka and Raducanu.  Both played such limited schedules that they did not accumulate enough points to be higher.  Osaka finishes at #11 but was third in match-winning ratio this year (18-6). Raducanu is #18 in the 12-month rankings and #11 in match-winning ratio (12-5).  The Tennis Channel named its Top Five for the year and had Osaka at #3.

 

Predictions for 2022

Because of her consistency and overall excellence I’ll pick Ash Barty to finish atop the ranking in 2022 for a third time (fourth consecutive time in the official frozen rankings).  Although there is a great depth and a slew of grand slam winners floating about, none put it together at the highest level as consistently as Barty.  Another slam title would not be a surprise, and two is possible.

 

Naomi Osaka is easily the second best player in the world at the moment, may even be the best.  I say that based on her talent, not on her current form.  Will she find the head space necessary to demonstrate her rightful level?  If she plays enough, the #1 ranking and two slams are within reach, but tempering, I’ll say she ‘just’ picks up a hardcourt slam this year.

 

Sabalenka has been knocking at the door of the top for long enough to make a believer of me.  Given the talent of Barty and Osaka, #3 hardly seems like a demotion, but it is actually lower than her current rank.  Muguruza had a very good 2021 and I expect that to continue into 2022.  A slam title certainly seems possible, and the only place it is truly unlikely is the US Open where she has never been past the fourth round (at least finals everywhere else).

 

For my 2022 predicted yearend #5 I’ll take Karolina Pliskova.  She surprised me this year.  I thought she was done, but she made the Wimbledon final and showed she still has both talent and desire.  At #6 I think Swiatek still has youth and talent on her side.  For #7 I’ll hold on Krejcikova to continue the solidity she began in 2021.  At #8 I’ll opt for Sakkari – I think she’s talented and hungry, but still has some mental yips to sort out or she might be higher.  At #9 I’ll bet on a return to form for Halep.  She hasn’t been out of the top long, and the basic goodness of her high-percentage game should continue to pay dividends.

 

That leaves some very thorny questions for #10.  Of the bevy of established and emerging talent, which is likely to make it count in 2022?  I’m tempted to pick Bencic, Svitolina, Raducanu, Kontaveit, Andreescu, LFernandez, Badosa, or Jabeur.  A strong case could be made for any of them.  Svitolina has the most previous top ten finishes.  Andreescu and Raducanu are perhaps the most precocious talents.  Bencic has been extremely good for periods, can she put it together for a longer time?  Kontaveit, Badosa, and Jabeur proved their mettle this year. Leylah can be ferocious mentally, but does she have enough game?  I’m gambling on Bencic remaining injury-free for long enough to finally reach her potential.

 

Predicted top ten for 2022

	Player
1	Barty
2	Osaka
3	Sabalenka
4	Muguruza
5	KaPliskova
6	Swiatek
7	Krejcikova
8	Sakkari
9	Halep
10	Bencic

 

For #s 11 to 20 I’ll take Raducanu, Svitolina, Andreescu, Kontaveit, LFernandez, Badosa, Jabeur, Kerber, Kvitova, and Serena Williams.  Williams could finish much higher on this list, but given the limited schedule she’ll probably play, she’s unlikely to get much above #20.  In the rather speculative spots of #s 21-30 I name Pegula, Gauff, Azarenka, Brady, Pavlyuchenkova, Mertens, Kasatkina, Vondrousova, Rybakina, and Tauson.

 

Australian Open

I would likely take Osaka as my favourite for the Australian, but I have too many questions about her form and her headspace.  So she gets my #2 and that leaves Barty has most likely to triumph.  If she does, it would end a 43 year drought for the home side. For the semis I’ll take Sabalenka and Muguruza, and for the quarters, KaPliskova, Swiatek, Krejcikova, and Kerber.  The bookies list their top four favourites as Barty, Osaka, Raducanu, and Muguruza.

 

Roland Garros

There are eight unique finalists from the last four years at the French, so predicting if any might repeat is a challenge.  Barty gets the best odds, for good reason, as a former winner and the current #1.  After her I’ll take the most recent three winners, Krejcikova, Swiatek, and Halep.  Halep might seem a gamble but she has half a year to play into form and a very solid clay game.  For the quarters Muguruza, Sabalenka, Svitolina, and KaPliskova look like reasonable picks.  The bookies top four are Swiatek, Barty, Halep, and Raducanu, in that order – rather surprising!

 

Wimbledon

Barty, again… I actually don’t think Barty will win the first three slams of the year, but I’m guessing she’s got the best odds at each one.  And she is the defending champion.  The runner-up is a much tougher pick.  I’m going out on a limb and saying it will be Kerber.  It seems an insane choice, given her ranking at #16, but she’s been to two finals before and made semis this year.  She’s good on grass.  For the semis I’ll take 2021’s runner-up, Karolina Pliskova, and 2019’s winner, Halep.  That might be a stretch, but grass, above all surfaces, seems to reward the experienced.  In the quarters I’ll take Sabalenka, Swiatek, Krejcikova, and Osaka.  Muguruza should probably be in there, too, but I’m out of space.  The bookies have Barty, Osaka, Raducanu, and Sabalenka.  Raducanu is probably a little less crazy here than at Roland Garros.  Wimbledon is her home slam, and she did alright last year, making the fourth round with her first ever main tour wins.

 

US Open

I have to think Osaka is the prohibitive favourite here, if she’s actually been playing most of the year… Lord knows.  Barty is my #2 because of consistency, even though she’s never been past the fourth round.  Semis go to Sabalenka and KaPliskova.  Halep, Krejcikova, Sakkari, and Bencic, get my quarters spots.  The bookies have Barty as the favourite, followed by Osaka, Raducanu, and Sabalenka, just like at Wimbledon.

 

In summary…

Barty and Osaka look the class of the field to me.  Barty is likely to fulfill that promise, and Osaka is more of a question mark because of her mental health.  After that it’s pretty open… both slam titles and rankings are hard to predict.  I expect Sabalenka to improve, maybe even make a slam final, and Muguruza to threaten at slams as well.  Perhaps some of the most fun and unpredictability will come from Raducanu, Leylah Fernandez, Andreescu, and Serena Williams.