The real injustice of this Australian Open has nothing to do with Djokovic, but is that Peng Shuai is not playing. She has been silenced for speaking out in China and we should not abandon or forget her.
Ashleigh Barty is the clear #1. Naomi Osaka is the defending champ and has
won four slams. But are these two the
clear favourites? Who could have
imagined a slam final between Emma Raducanu and Leylah Fernandez? Or between Barbora Krejcikova and Anastasia
Pavlyuchenkova? The only thing certain
about women’s tennis these days is that it’s unpredictable. Which is kind of
exciting…
First Quarter
This is the loaded quarter.
Both Osaka (seeded 13) and Barty (1), the two favourites,
are in the top eighth of the draw. Also here are Olympic gold medalist Belinda
Bencic (32), and Amanda Anisimova who showed off her devastating
game by taking the 250 title in Melbourne last week.
The lower half is slightly less packed with Maria Sakkari
as the fifth seed. She made two slam
semi-finals last year, but has not looked like a closer in the late rounds of
tournaments. Veronika Kudermetova
(28), Ons Jabeur (9), and Jessica Pegula – quarter-finalist last
year, are all present as well.
But assuming Osaka’s withdrawal last week due to a back
injury was more precautionary than debilitating, this quarter likely comes down
to a mouth-watering clash between Osaka and Barty. It might show us who will dominate the next
few years. Barty has so many tools with
which to inflict damage, and she has been ruling the roost two of the last
three years. Meanwhile Osaka’s fortunes
have been more wildly fluctuating, but have peaked often enough to net four
slam titles, double Barty’s total. Based
on recent form, Barty would seem the favourite, but such is the power and
dominance of Osaka’s game that if Naomi is ‘on’ she’s nigh-well
unbeatable. So it all depends on Naomi’s
headspace. Obviously this quarter will
be won by Aliaksandra Sasnovich.
Osaka d. Sakkari
Second Quarter
I really have not a clue who the favourite in this quarter
should be. Then 25-year old Barbora
Krejcikova (4) had won precisely five slam singles matches when she swept
to the French title last year. She’s
followed up that result and firmly established herself in the top ten, but
looks far from a dominating force. Indian Wells champ Paula Badosa (8) looked
very strong at year’s end, but is relatively unproven at the slams, especially
the hard court slams where she’s never been past the second round. Top ten stalwart Elina Svitolina (15)
has been on a slide that doesn’t look about to end. Can 2020 Aus champion, Sofia
Kenin (11), find her winning ways from two years ago? Madison Keys
has been on a gradual descent since her US Open final appearance in 2017, but is
showing signs of life this week, making the final in Adelaide. She and Kenin face-off in the first round.
Victoria Azarenka (24) won the title here twice in 2013-14. Her form has been up and down, but she did
make the Indian Wells final in October.
She seems to thrive at the beginning of the year and is always
dangerous. Coco Gauff (18) has
been knocking on the door of greatness for at least three years now, but is
still somehow only 17 years old. Her
steady improvement is paying off and her raw athleticism is inspiring.
Azarenka d. Badosa
Third Quarter
The top seed here is Garbine Muguruza (3) who ended
the year strongly with a triumph at the WTA Finals (1500) event. Her quarter-final loss to Kasatkina this week
in Sydney may give pause, but it’s just the sort of thing Garbine can shrug off
and hit through in her next match. Anett
Kontaveit (6) won four tournaments last year, and was runner up at the WTA
Finals. This week she lost by the
slimmest of margins, 14-12 in the final set tie-breaker, in the semis to
Krejcikova. The slam pedigree isn’t there but Kontaveit’s recent ascent means
anything is possible.
Elena Rybakina (12) made the final in Sydney last
week and is one of the most dangerous players you’ve never heard of. Tamara Zidansek (29) made the semis of
Roland Garros last year. There’s an intriguing first-rounder between US Open
champs Sloane Stephens and Emma Raducanu (17): which is more
likely to find their top gear? Simona
Halep (14) got back in the winner’s circle last week by claiming the title at
Melbourne 1. It wasn’t the toughest of draws, but her play was excellent. She is definitely a contender at the
tournament where she was runner-up in 2018.
But can she beat Muguruza in a potential fourth round encounter? Their head to head is even at 3-3 with Halep
tending to win on clay, and Muguruza on hard courts. This is hard court.
Muguruza d. Kontaveit
Fourth Quarter
Hard-hitting Aryna Sabalenka (2) finally got past the
fourth round of a slam last year, making two semi-finals, at Wimbledon and the
US Open. But she’s started her year with
two losses, featuring 39 double faults. She’s #2 for a reason, but can she find
her game in time? Former champ Angelique Kerber (16) showed signs of a
resurrection in the latter half of 2021, and could run into Leylah Fernandez
(23) in the third round. Leylah has played only two tournaments since her run
to the US Open final, and the results are mixed. Can she re-find her precision and
concentration?
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (10), Roland Garros
runner-up, has a decent draw. Daria
Kasatkina (25) is in a rich vein of form and has already made two semi-finals
this year. Her varied games can cause nightmares for anyone. The second highest seed in this quarter is Iga
Swiatek (7). She beat both LFernandez and Azarenka last week before falling
to Barty. She has a very high ceiling,
and seems to be getting into a good headspace. She could be very dangerous.
Swiatek d LFernandez
Semis and Final
Semis: Osaka d
Azarenka, Muguruza over Swiatek
Final: Osaka d
Muguruza
Odds and experts
The writers at tennis.com have named their projected winners, 3 for Barty, 1 each for Halep, Osaka, and Swiatek. Jon Wertheim at Sports Illustrated has picked Muguruza.
Decimal odds from bet365.com on 13 Jan 2021 (in the order
they are listed):
|
1 |
Barty |
4 |
|
2 |
Osaka |
7.5 |
|
3 |
Swiatek |
13 |
|
4 |
Muguruza |
15 |
|
5 |
Kontaveit |
15 |
|
6 |
Halep |
15 |
|
7 |
Rybakina |
21 |
|
8 |
Krejcikova |
21 |
|
9 |
Gauff |
21 |
|
10 |
Badosa |
21 |
|
11 |
Sabalenka |
26 |
|
12 |
Kasatkina |
34 |
|
13 |
Azarenka |
34 |
|
14 |
Sakkari |
41 |
|
15 |
Kvitova |
41 |
|
16 |
Jabeur |
41 |
|
17 |
LFernandez |
41 |
|
18 |
Stephens |
51 |
|
19 |
Raducanu |
51 |
|
20 |
Kerber |
51 |
|
21 |
Collins |
51 |
|
22 |
Anisimova |
51 |
|
23 |
Vondrousova |
67 |
|
24 |
Svitolina |
67 |
|
25 |
Keys |
67 |
|
26 |
Tauson |
81 |
|
27 |
Pegula |
81 |
|
28 |
Bencic |
81 |
|
29 |
Teichmann |
101 |
|
30 |
Mertens |
101 |
|
31 |
Kudermetova |
101 |
|
32 |
Sasnovich |
126 |
|
33 |
Samsonova |
126 |
|
34 |
Ostapenko |
126 |
|
35 |
Ann Li |
126 |
|
36 |
Kenin |
126 |
|
37 |
Alexandrova |
126 |
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