Aus Open Women’s Draw Preview

 

The real injustice of this Australian Open has nothing to do with Djokovic, but is that Peng Shuai is not playing.  She has been silenced for speaking out in China and we should not abandon or forget her.

Ashleigh Barty is the clear #1.  Naomi Osaka is the defending champ and has won four slams.  But are these two the clear favourites?  Who could have imagined a slam final between Emma Raducanu and Leylah Fernandez?  Or between Barbora Krejcikova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova?  The only thing certain about women’s tennis these days is that it’s unpredictable. Which is kind of exciting…

 

First Quarter

This is the loaded quarter.  Both Osaka (seeded 13) and Barty (1), the two favourites, are in the top eighth of the draw. Also here are Olympic gold medalist Belinda Bencic (32), and Amanda Anisimova who showed off her devastating game by taking the 250 title in Melbourne last week.

The lower half is slightly less packed with Maria Sakkari as the fifth seed.  She made two slam semi-finals last year, but has not looked like a closer in the late rounds of tournaments.  Veronika Kudermetova (28), Ons Jabeur (9), and Jessica Pegula – quarter-finalist last year, are all present as well.

But assuming Osaka’s withdrawal last week due to a back injury was more precautionary than debilitating, this quarter likely comes down to a mouth-watering clash between Osaka and Barty.  It might show us who will dominate the next few years.  Barty has so many tools with which to inflict damage, and she has been ruling the roost two of the last three years.  Meanwhile Osaka’s fortunes have been more wildly fluctuating, but have peaked often enough to net four slam titles, double Barty’s total.  Based on recent form, Barty would seem the favourite, but such is the power and dominance of Osaka’s game that if Naomi is ‘on’ she’s nigh-well unbeatable.  So it all depends on Naomi’s headspace.  Obviously this quarter will be won by Aliaksandra Sasnovich.

Osaka d. Sakkari

 

Second Quarter

I really have not a clue who the favourite in this quarter should be.  Then 25-year old Barbora Krejcikova (4) had won precisely five slam singles matches when she swept to the French title last year.  She’s followed up that result and firmly established herself in the top ten, but looks far from a dominating force. Indian Wells champ Paula Badosa (8) looked very strong at year’s end, but is relatively unproven at the slams, especially the hard court slams where she’s never been past the second round.  Top ten stalwart Elina Svitolina (15) has been on a slide that doesn’t look about to end. Can 2020 Aus champion, Sofia Kenin (11), find her winning ways from two years ago? Madison Keys has been on a gradual descent since her US Open final appearance in 2017, but is showing signs of life this week, making the final in Adelaide.  She and Kenin face-off in the first round.

Victoria Azarenka (24) won the title here twice in 2013-14.  Her form has been up and down, but she did make the Indian Wells final in October.  She seems to thrive at the beginning of the year and is always dangerous.  Coco Gauff (18) has been knocking on the door of greatness for at least three years now, but is still somehow only 17 years old.  Her steady improvement is paying off and her raw athleticism is inspiring.

Azarenka d. Badosa

 

Third Quarter

The top seed here is Garbine Muguruza (3) who ended the year strongly with a triumph at the WTA Finals (1500) event.  Her quarter-final loss to Kasatkina this week in Sydney may give pause, but it’s just the sort of thing Garbine can shrug off and hit through in her next match.  Anett Kontaveit (6) won four tournaments last year, and was runner up at the WTA Finals.  This week she lost by the slimmest of margins, 14-12 in the final set tie-breaker, in the semis to Krejcikova. The slam pedigree isn’t there but Kontaveit’s recent ascent means anything is possible.

Elena Rybakina (12) made the final in Sydney last week and is one of the most dangerous players you’ve never heard of.  Tamara Zidansek (29) made the semis of Roland Garros last year. There’s an intriguing first-rounder between US Open champs Sloane Stephens and Emma Raducanu (17): which is more likely to find their top gear?  Simona Halep (14) got back in the winner’s circle last week by claiming the title at Melbourne 1. It wasn’t the toughest of draws, but her play was excellent.  She is definitely a contender at the tournament where she was runner-up in 2018.  But can she beat Muguruza in a potential fourth round encounter?  Their head to head is even at 3-3 with Halep tending to win on clay, and Muguruza on hard courts.  This is hard court.

Muguruza d. Kontaveit

 

Fourth Quarter

Hard-hitting Aryna Sabalenka (2) finally got past the fourth round of a slam last year, making two semi-finals, at Wimbledon and the US Open.  But she’s started her year with two losses, featuring 39 double faults. She’s #2 for a reason, but can she find her game in time? Former champ Angelique Kerber (16) showed signs of a resurrection in the latter half of 2021, and could run into Leylah Fernandez (23) in the third round. Leylah has played only two tournaments since her run to the US Open final, and the results are mixed.  Can she re-find her precision and concentration?

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (10), Roland Garros runner-up, has a decent draw.  Daria Kasatkina (25) is in a rich vein of form and has already made two semi-finals this year. Her varied games can cause nightmares for anyone.  The second highest seed in this quarter is Iga Swiatek (7). She beat both LFernandez and Azarenka last week before falling to Barty.  She has a very high ceiling, and seems to be getting into a good headspace. She could be very dangerous.

Swiatek d LFernandez

 

Semis and Final

Semis:  Osaka d Azarenka, Muguruza over Swiatek

Final:  Osaka d Muguruza

 

Odds and experts

The writers at tennis.com have named their projected winners, 3 for Barty, 1 each for Halep, Osaka, and Swiatek.  Jon Wertheim at Sports Illustrated has picked Muguruza.

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 13 Jan 2021 (in the order they are listed):

1	Barty	4
2	Osaka	7.5
3	Swiatek	13
4	Muguruza	15
5	Kontaveit	15
6	Halep	15
7	Rybakina	21
8	Krejcikova	21
9	Gauff	21
10	Badosa	21
11	Sabalenka	26
12	Kasatkina	34
13	Azarenka	34
14	Sakkari	41
15	Kvitova	41
16	Jabeur	41
17	LFernandez	41
18	Stephens	51
19	Raducanu	51
20	Kerber	51
21	Collins	51
22	Anisimova	51
23	Vondrousova	67
24	Svitolina	67
25	Keys	67
26	Tauson	81
27	Pegula	81
28	Bencic	81
29	Teichmann	101
30	Mertens	101
31	Kudermetova	101
32	Sasnovich	126
33	Samsonova	126
34	Ostapenko	126
35	Ann Li	126
36	Kenin	126
37	Alexandrova	126