2022 Yearend Men’s Tennis and 2023 Predictions

 

A case could be made for all three slam winners of 2022 to be nominated best player of the year.  Carlos Alcaraz came from nowhere to rise into the top ten, claim a bunch of titles, a slam at the US Open, and eventually the yearend #1 ranking on the computer.  Nadal won 20 matches in a row to start the year and picked up to two slams to lead the overall slam race.  Djokovic missed two slams, half the 1000’s, didn’t get points for winning Wimbledon, but still finished #5 in the rankings and had the best win-loss record on the men’s tour.  So who is player of the year?

 

Story of 2022

Canada started the year right when Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime led the country to victory at the ATP Cup in early January – Canada’s first international team win above the junior level.  The country showed it was no fluke when they took the Davis Cup in December, finally bettering their showing in the all-comers final of 1913, and their runner-up showing from 2019.

But down-under, the year quickly descended into scandal as thousands of tennis fans sat glued to boring parliamentary reports from the Australian government over whether Novak Djokovic would be allowed to stay in the country.  After being invited to come and being assured by Tennis Australia that he could play, Djokovic was kept on tenterhooks for days before eventually being deported from the country for being unvaccinated against Covid-19.  I thought Djokovic handled the situation with aplomb.

The absence of the nine-time champion created a power-vacuum in the draw, with Daniil Medvedev looking like the favourite.  Medvedev made it to the final after being severely tested in a five-setter with Auger-Aliassime, coming from two sets to love down.  He then led Nadal two sets to love in the final and missed an easy sitter to make him 4-2 in the third, two holds from the championship.  Nadal admirably dug in and adapted his game to be less risky, while drawing Medvedev into the net.  It was an incredibly tight match that ended 7-5 in the fifth for Nadal.  Medvedev didn’t really recover until fall.  He posted good but not great results throughout the year.  He was hampered by a hernia operation and eventually distracted by the birth of his first child.  In October he was looking like his old self again at a 500 in Astana, taking the first set from Djokovic and forcing a tight tie-breaker in the second, which he lost.  But he was injured in that match and had to retire.  He finished the year at #7 in the rankings, after gaining the #1 spot for 16 weeks of the year.  With the trials of 2022 behind him, I’ll expect him to be a little better in 2023.  He should again challenge for hard-court slams.

Nadal started the year with a bang, claiming three tournaments on the trot, including a second Australian Open after four unsuccessful trips to that final.  The absence of Djokovic does provide a bit of an asterisk to the win, but history will only remember that he took over the slam race at that point – at least the one that doesn’t include pro slams and has Ken Rosewall at the top with 23.  Rafa showed wonderful adaptability, creativity, mental toughness, and persistence in taking the title. 

He went on to claim an incredible 14^th Roland Garros title.  This is the most slam titles claimed in a single event, male or female, in grand slam history, breaking a tie with Margaret Osborne DuPont from the 1950’s who won 13 US women’s doubles titles.  Nadal was already ahead of the male record of 10 doubles titles won by Adrian Quist at the Australian Open in the 1940’s, the singles record of 11 titles won by Margaret Court at the Australian, and the male singles record of Djokovic who has 9 Australian titles.

But after his 20-0 start to the year, Nadal was 19-8 (W-L) for the rest of the year and after Wimbledon was only 4-5.  He was plagued by injuries including a broken rib, chronic foot pain, and abdominal problems.  He showed with his two slam victories that he can still beat the best, mostly.  He hasn’t won off clay against Djokovic since 2013.  With border restrictions lifted and Djokovic competing again, Nadal may be the favourite only at Roland Garros, and even there the bookies are giving the edge to Djokovic and Alcaraz.  Although it appears age and injuries have finally caught up to Nadal, I’ll expect a few tournament victories from him, especially at the French Open. 

Nadal has now won a tour title in each of the last 19 years, an open era record.  Second is Djokovic with 17 straight years. In the pre-open era, both Tilden and Rosewall can claim 21 year spans.

Taylor Fritz surprised the tennis world by taking the 1000 in Indian Wells, beating Nadal in the final.  He showed off his wonderfully reliable backhand and jumped up the ranking to just outside the top ten.  He barely lost a five-setter to Nadal in the quarters of Wimbledon and won three tournaments during the year, finishing at #9 on the ATP computer. I’m impressed with his on-court demeanour.

At the Miami 1000 Carlos Alcaraz started to show the year he was about to have by taking the title.  He’d already won a tournament in Rio in February, and he took out three top-tenners in his Miami run.  He then won Barcelona and took out Nadal, Djokovic, and Alexander Zverev to win the Madrid 1000 and make the top ten.  He was labelled the favourite for Roland Garros but went out to Zverev in the quarters.  Carlos showed he can win on grass by winning a few rounds at Wimbledon, but went out to Jannik Sinner in the fourth round.  On North American hard courts he looked rather middling in posting a 2-2 record at the 1000’s in Cincinnati and Canada.  But he clawed his way through the US Open draw, winning three five setters in a row.  The match against Sinner in the quarters was especially notable for its high quality and tense drama.  It was one of the longest of the year and was the latest match ever at the US Open.  The victory in the US Open propelled Alcaraz to #1 in the world, a position he held till the end of the year.  His five tournament victories were tied by Djokovic.

 

2022 Finals	Titles	Runners-up	Points from finals
Djokovic	5	2	6000
Alcaraz	5	2	5450
Nadal	4	1	5350
CaRuud	3	4	4750
Tsitsipas	2	5	3200
DMedvedev	2	3	2400
Rune	2	3	1950
Fritz	3	0	1750
Kyrgios	1	1	1700
Auger Aliassime	4	1	1650
Carreno Busta	1	1	1300
Rublev	4	0	1250

 

Alcaraz’s game is built on speed and completeness.  There’s no stroke he can’t hit, no shot he can’t get to.  It’s incredibly physical.  He could improve the placement of his serve a little, and could win more efficiently, learning to concentrate throughout a match, instead of dragging into deciding sets.  So there’s room for improvement, which is amazing. But I suspect his hyper-physical style will be a challenge to maintain.  Going that hard after the ball, and the explosive speed required to do it will have to wear on the joints.  I don’t see it as a sustainable style into a player’s 30’s.  But like Djokovic or Nadal, he will have lots of chances to learn more efficiency for those later years.  He’s still only 19.

Casper Ruud made his presence known by winning the 250 in Buenos Aires in February and then fighting to runner-up at the Miami 1000.  He won five titles in 2021, all 250’s, and while he hasn’t yet won a bigger title, he was in four of the biggest finals of the year.  Making the French final was a big surprise, even if eight of his nine titles have come on clay.  But no one expected him to make the US Open final.  It wasn’t exactly a murderer’s row he faced, the highest ranked opponent was #14 Berrettini, who had a middling year. After splitting the first two sets of the final, Ruud pushed Alcaraz to a third set tiebreak, the match potentially hanging in the balance. But Alcaraz raced through the tiebreak 7-1 and ran out the fourth set 6-3.  But Ruud was not done surprising, and made the final of the World Tour Finals on fast indoor courts in Milan.  The Ruud forehand is definitely a weapon, but it was the improvements to the backhand that allowed him to jump a level.  He’s also a good mover and mentally sound, willing to be patient and always looking for ways to improve.  He finishes at #3 in the world.

Andrey Rublev won three titles in the first months of the year and a fourth in October.  Notable among these was a victory over Djokovic in the Serb’s hometown of Belgrade.  Rublev continued to struggle at the slams, making two more quarter-finals, at the French and US Opens.  He’s now made six slam quarters without ever advancing to a semi, second only to Tommy Robredo who has seven.  Rublev is an excellent hard-hitting baseliner, but he may need to become less one-dimensional if he wants to rise higher.

Stefanos Tsitsipas won two tournaments in 2022, the 1000 in Monte Carlo and a 250 on grass in June.  Despite winning the most matches on the ATP tour and finishing at #4, his year was somewhat disappointing.  He did not fare well in the biggest tournaments and looked increasingly petulant in fights with his coach’s box during tournaments.  He needs to shore up his slice backhand and his attitude if he is to avoid falling in the ranks.  He doesn’t really seem like a slam contender any more.

 

	Matches Won	Matches Lost	W-L Ratio
Djokovic	42	7	6.00
Nadal	39	8	4.88
Alcaraz	57	13	4.38
Kyrgios	37	10	3.70
Sinner	47	16	2.94
AZverev	29	10	2.90
Berrettini	32	12	2.67
Rublev	51	20	2.55
Tsitsipas	61	24	2.54
DMedvedev	45	19	2.37
CaRuud	51	22	2.32
Auger Aliassime	60	27	2.22

 

At the end of 2021 there was talk of a new Big 3 to replace the Federer-Nadal-Djokovic triumvirate that had ruled the sport for 15+ years.  The new group was to be composed of Djokovic, Medvedev, and Alexander Zverev – at least according to Zverev.  The group had done very well in 2021, finishing atop the rankings and claiming 15 titles, Zverev leading with six.  But by mid-May none of that exalted group had won any titles in 2022 and the new Big 3 was starting to look mighty hollow.  But Zverev was starting to right the ship and made the final at the 1000 in Madrid.  Then at the French he took out the supposed favourite, Alcaraz, in the quarters and was locked in a fearsome battle with Nadal in the semis when disaster struck.  The match was well past the three hour mark and the second set was not yet complete.  Nadal was in grave jeopardy, but got a reprieve when Zverev rolled his ankle, snapping multiple tendons and ligaments.  The horrific injury took Zverev out for the rest of the year.  He had managed to accumulate enough points to hang onto a #12 ranking for yearend.  I expect he will have a bit of a slow comeback, and it’s hard to know if the ankle will ever be fully functional again.  But such is the depth of his talent that he may well be contending for slams by Roland Garros in June.  He is certainly one of the most talented never to have won one, and before the injury he seemed on the cusp.

Matteo Berrettini won back to back titles on grass in June, but then had to withdraw from Wimbledon because of a positive Covid-19 test.  He did make the semis in Australia and the quarters at the US Open, but his year was notable for being beset by injury that had him missing three months between March and June.  Hopefully better health prevails next year.  The former Wimbledon finalist should threaten again at SW 19.

Wimbledon caused a massive controversy by banning Russian and Belorussian players because of the war in Ukraine.  Both the WTA and ATP responded by stripping the tournament of points.  I believe sport should unite us and not be a battle ground for political statements, and so I did not support Wimbledon in this move.  It appears likely the maneuver will not be repeated in 2023.

Because of vaccination bans in the US and Australia, Novak Djokovic played only two slams and only half the 1000’s in 2022 – winning one of each.  His sailed though Wimbledon with his toughest matches being against Sinner in the quarters and a fourth-set tiebreaker against Kyrgios in the final.  He’s now won 4 consecutive Wimbledons and seven overall.  He will be the prohibitive favourite to tie Federer’s men’s record of eight and equal the Swiss’s and Borg’s string of five in a row.  Only William Renshaw achieved six in a row, back in the 1880’s.  Djokovic is already the first man to win at least seven titles at two of the slam tournaments.

 

Most titles at 2nd major	First major	Second major	Third Major
Novak Djokovic	9 – Aus	7 – Wim	3 – US
Helen Wills	8 – Wim	7 – US	5 – Fre/WHCC
Serena Williams	7 – Aus	7 – Wim	6 – US
Roger Federer	8 – Wim	6 – Aus	5 – US
Steffi Graf	7 – Wim	6 – Fre	5 – US
Chris Evert	7 – Fre	6 – US	3 – Wim
Suzanne Lenglen	6 – Wim	6 – Fre/WHCC
Margaret Court	11 – Aus	5 – Fre	5 – US
Ken Rosewall	8 – Fre Pro	5 – Wembley	4 – Aus
Pete Sampras	7 – Wim	5 – US	2 – Aus
Bjorn Borg	6 – Fre	5 – Wim
Rafael Nadal	14 – Fre	4 – US	2 – Wim
Martina Navratilova	9 – Wim	4 – US	3 – Aus
Pancho Gonzalez	8 – US Pro	4 – Wembley	2 – US
Billie Jean King	6 – Wim	4 – US	1 – Fre
Rod Laver	4 – Wim	4 – Wembley	3 - Aus

 

Once he got going, Djokovic had a sterling season.  He lost in his first four tournaments of the season, but beginning with Rome in May he lost only three more times, winning five of his final seven tournaments.  Notably he blitzed the field at the ATP Finals, winning his sixth title there, to tie Federer for the all-time lead.  Had Wimbledon counted for points he would have finished #2 in the world, only 180 points behind Alcaraz, and that’s without playing half the slams and half the 1000s.  He may not be officially #1, but he still seems to me be the best player.

Nick Kyrgios finally started to live up to his potential when he made the final at Wimbledon.  He got an assist when Nadal gave him a walkover in the semis, but Kyrgios was a likely favourite in that match.  He followed it up by taking the 500 in Washington and beating #1 Medvedev at both the Canada 1000 and the US Open.  Had Wimbledon counted for points he would finish the year at #11.  He’s got one of the best serves on tour and smooth groundstrokes with no real stroke weakness.  The mental game will always be a challenge for him, but he managed to find good tennis in 2022 while still acting out at times.  The key difference to previous years was his fitness and the effort he put into winning.  If he continues to put in the effort he could threaten for slams, especially at Wimbledon, and a top ten ranking should be within reach.  But will he try?

Cam Norrie showed off his all-court talents by winning the Delray Beach 250 on hard courts in February, the Lyon 250 on clay in May, and then scrapping to the Wimbledon semis in July.  It was an impressive way to show off his fighting spirit and decent ground strokes.

Jannik Sinner played some excellent tennis in 2022 and seemed to make strides in mental toughness and against the best opponents.  But his ranking dropped to #15 from #10 a year ago.  That was largely due to not winning as many small tournaments, but he was especially strong at the slams, equalling or bettering his performance at every slam.  He made three quarter finals and one fourth round, a fine performance.  Only Nadal and Alcaraz won more slam rounds than Sinner in 2022.  His quarter-final against Alcaraz has been dubbed by many the match of year.  Had he won the match point he held, he could well have gone on to win the slam, and not Alcaraz.  So I believe the 21-year old should be optimistic about his future.

Frances Tiafoe did not quite reach the heights I predicted last year, #13, but he came close at #19.  He did well at Wimbledon making fourth round, but then surprised everyone by handing Nadal a 4-set loss at the US Open and making it all the way to the semi-finals.  He pushed Alcaraz to five sets there, and also made the finals at the Tokyo 500 in October.  At age 24 he could yet make a run into the top ten.

Felix Auger Aliassime finally got the tournament monkey off his back.  After eight straight losses in finals, he finally won one, the 500 in Rotterdam.  He nearly took Medvedev out of the Australian in a tight five-set loss in the quarters, and also took Nadal to five sets at Roland Garros.  But he really came alive after beating Djokovic in Laver Cup in September.  He went on a 3-tournament, 16-match win streak that was stopped by Holger Rune at the Paris 1000.  He climbed to #6 in the world and finally seems to be fulfilling his potential.  His strengths are serve and foot speed  The addition of Toni Nadal to his coaching box seems to have improved his shot selection, match strategy, and mental toughness.  He has the game to contend for slams but whether or not he does will likely depend on his mind.

Holger Rune had a breakout year that saw him climb from #103 a year ago, all the way to #10.  He finishes the year at #11, and has much to be proud of.  Still only 19 and just six days older that Alcaraz, the stage is set for an exciting rivalry and many exploits to come. He gave notice by winning a clay 250 in Munich in April, and then burst onto the scene with a run to the quarters at Roland Garros.  That was followed by six straight first round losses before he took the 250 in Stockholm, made the final of the Basel 500, and then upset five top-ten players, including Alcaraz and Djokovic to claim the Paris 1000 title. Exclamation point!  His strokes are solid and his attitude is decidedly cocky.  He could work on his serve.  I’ll have big expectations for him in 2023.

No tale of 2023 would be complete without the mention of some significant retirements.  Foremost among these were Roger Federer and Serena Williams.  I forgot to mention Serena in my women’s write-up so she gets ink here.  The impact of these two mega-stars born within weeks of each other transcends tennis by some margin.  They are the two players who have likely had the greatest global impact of all time.  Both were given warm and fitting tributes and the reactions of each of their biggest rivals, Rafael Nadal and Venus Wiliams, brought tears to the eyes of many spectators.  They are already missed.

And there were many other retirements as well. Ash Barty, Juan Martin Del Potro, Samantha Stosur, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Kevin Anderson, Monica Puig, Gilles Simon, Tommy Robredo, Sam Querrey, and Andrea Petkovic all decided to hang up the racket, at least in singles.

 

Yearend Rankings

In my yearend summary last year, I floated the idea that Alcaraz might win a slam title in 2022 and predicted he would finish the year at #8.  Well he certainly exceeded my expectations.  I also predicted that Zverev would finish #1, and that did not happen.

For 2022 I follow the ATP official rankings but with the addition of points that would have been awarded at Wimbledon.  Neither the ban on Russians at Wimbledon nor the removal of points seemed fair to me.

 

Yearend Ranking (including Wim)	Player	ATP Ranking (without Wim)	My prediction one year ago
1	Alcaraz	1	8
2	Djokovic	5	2
3	Nadal	2	5
4	CaRuud	3	9
5	Tsitsipas	4	4
6	Auger Aliassime	6	16
7	DMedvedev	7	3
8	Rublev	8	11
9	Fritz	9	17
10	Norrie	14	>30

 

Djokovic gets bumped up to #2 because of his missing Wimbledon points, and Norrie climbs to #10 from his ATP ranking of #14 for the same reason.  Some commentators have suggested that Nadal should be #1 for the year because of his two slam titles, but I disagree since the rest of his year was so weak.  Djokovic is tops in match winning percentage and dollars earned for the year, but Alcaraz earned the most ATP points, and that counts for something.  He is the youngest yearend male #1 in history, just pipping Wilfred Baddeley who was also 19 back in 1891 but four months older than Alcaraz at yearend.

 

Predictions for 2023

I am very high on the potential of four young players (the New Four?) – namely, Alcaraz, Rune, Sinner, and Auger Aliassime, roughly in that order.  It finally seems we have a crop of worthy successors to the outgoing Big Three, or Big Four if you’re being generous to Andy Murray.  Of course Djokovic and Nadal are not done yet, but based purely on deterioration of the body the end does seem close for Nadal.  I’d be surprised if he was threat, or even played into 2024.  Meanwhile the most recent lost gen (this is about the fourth? after Hewitt-Roddick, Berdych-Tsonga, Nishikori-Raonic) of Medvedev, Zverev, and Tsitsipas may still rise up.  Medvedev has already shown he can win a slam title, while Zverev and Tsitsipas have each made a slam final.  Rublev, Kyrgios, Ruud, Fritz, and Berrettini also belong to that generation, but I suspect this cohort has at most a year or two before the window for slam success is firmly closed by the New Four.

With a full schedule available to him I expect that Djokovic will be back at #1 in 2023, on the back of likely slam successes at the Australian Open and Wimbledon.  Nor would the French or US Opens be out of reach.  If he plays a light schedule he could be surpassed in the rankings, but I’d be surprised if he did not seem like the best player.

That means I’m bumping Alcaraz to #2 for 2023.  It’s hard to know if he’ll have a sophomore slump after such a stupendous 2022.  He’ll certainly be among the favourites at tournaments on clay or hard – which is at least 90% of the tour.  I’ll be looking for him to tighten up his focus when closing out matches.  Another slam title would certainly not surprise.

At #3 I’m taking a gamble on Alexander Zverev to recover from injury and start to show again the great depth of his talent.

Casper Ruud seemed to benefit from some excellent draws in 2022, but any player who makes four of the biggest finals of the year is more than just lucky.  He gets my nod for #4.  I doubt if he’ll get to another slam final, but his persistence on court and commitment to learning stand him in good stead for another fine showing.

For #5 I think Daniil Medvedev is possibly placed too low.  His tenaciousness and creativity have taken him to a slam title and #1 in the world.  But it seemed like a weakness was exposed this year, especially in the forecourt and an inability to close off points.  Still, when he’s playing well, anything is possible.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has been wonderfully consistent in holding onto a place in the top five the last two years, and he’s actually been in the top seven for the last four years.  I’ll predict he holds steady at #6, even if slam glory is unlikely.

Spot #7 is a gamble, to be sure.  He did win a 1000, beating Djokovic in the final, but Holger Rune is largely unproven, especially at the slams.  But this 19-year old has nothing but potential and his confidence won’t hurt him.

It may look like a demotion to predict Felix Auger Aliassime for #8, but I actually expect he will improve on last year’s performance, in the sense that he may not win as many small tournaments but I expect he’ll be challenging more at the big ones and going deeper.

It probably seems totally unfair to slot Nadal into #9 for 2023.  He’s come off a two-slam season and is #2 in the official rankings.  But his injured body has me suspecting his schedule and play will be somewhat hampered.  A 15^th French Open title would not surprise and would only add to his legend.

I’m predicting Jannik Sinner will get back to #10 in 2023.  Hopefully he does even better, and based on the evidence of 2022 he should continue to improve.  He’s very controlled on the court, and that serves him well.  If he can let his best tennis out more freely he could really take off.

Many worthy players did not make my predicted top ten, not least among them is Andrey Rublev, who gets my #11, despite three consecutive yearend top-ten finishes.  After him I’ve got Fritz, Kyrgios (who will be a favourite for Wimbledon), Hurkacz, Berrettini, Tiafoe, Shapovalov, Khachanov, Schwartzman, and Norrie rounding out the top 20.  Most of them would be perfectly reasonable top ten picks.

For the rather tentative 21-30 slots I’m going with Cilic, Carreno Busta, de Minaur, Musetti, Coric, Evans, Tommy Paul, Jack Draper, Nakashima, and Ruusuvuori.  Of these, possibly Musetti and Draper have the most potential to surprise.

Any of the predicted 11-30 could be top-tenners, but it comes down to probability.  It’s the (deemed) likelihood of success that determines my ordering.

 

Predicted Top Ten for 2023

	Predicted Rank
1	Djokovic
2	Alcaraz
3	AZverev
4	CaRuud
5	DMedvedev
6	Tsitsipas
7	Rune
8	Auger Aliassime
9	Nadal
10	Sinner

 

Australian Open

With visa in place, I expect Djokovic will return to his winning ways in Australia, where he’ll be going for a 10^th title.  Nadal is the defending champ and seemed to be in reasonable health at year’s end.  He’ll have had a chance to recuperate so I expect he’ll be in his best form for the first part of the year, and make him my predicted runner-up.  For the semis I’ll take Medvedev and Alcaraz.  I think Alcaraz will be vulnerable to a post-slam hangover or I might predict him higher.  For the 5-8 slots in Australia I’m predicting Ruud, Tsitsipas, Zverev, and Sinner.  The bookies at bet365.com on 1 Jan 2023 have Djokovic, Alcaraz, Medvedev, and Kyrgios, in that order.  Kyrgios is an interesting and not unreasonable pick, given his form in 2022 and his love for his home slam.

 

Roland Garros

Despite the possibly woeful state of his body, I would be crazy to pick against the 14-time champ on Paris clay.  If there’s anything Nadal has shown us, it is that he can never be counted out at the French.  Djokovic and Alcaraz seem like obvious next picks, and in fourth I’ll take last year’s finalist, Casper Ruud, who has a game built for clay.  In the quarter final slots I’ll predict Zverev, Tsitsipas, Sinner, and Rune.  I’ll be keeping a close eye on Rune, especially.  The bookies list their top four as Djokovic, Alcaraz, Nadal, and Tsitsipas.  Their third place for Nadal surprises me.  That might be one to bet on!

 

Wimbledon

At Wimbledon, the four-time defending champ is a no-brainer.  Djokovic could join Federer atop the Wimbledon lists with eight titles. I believe in Nadal on grass so he’s my number two, although if Kyrgios were more reliable I might elevate him above #3.  Alcaraz gets my #4 for Wimbledon, despite his lack of pedigree on the surface – he’s just too good to ignore.  For the quarters I pick Fritz, Auger-Aliassime, Norrie and Berrettini.  The bookies have Djokovic, Alcaraz, Berrettini, and Nadal as their top four.

 

US Open

The US Open is really the hardest to make picks for, the only slam where we haven’t had a perennial favourite.  We’ve had Alcaraz, Medvedev, Thiem, Wawrinka, Cilic, and Del Potro take titles here during the Big Four era.  Djokovic has made nine finals in New York, and surprisingly won only three of them, but his record on hard courts is too good to ignore and with the courts playing slightly faster than in previous years, he’s my favourite.  Second goes to the only man in draw likely to have a better W-L ratio than him, Carlos Alcaraz, who is 11-1 at the Open (Djokovic is 81-13).  Third goes to four-time champ Nadal, but to be honest, if Nadal is healthy enough to play I’ll be surprised.  Fourth goes to the 2021 champ, Medvedev.  If he’d looked stronger in 2022 I’d put him above Nadal.  For the quarters I’ll predict Zverev, Auger Aliassime, Sinner, and Ruud.  Ruud has gotten fairly short shrift from me, given his two slam runners-up in 2022, but I’ll expect the draws to be a little less open this year.  The bookies have Djokovic on top for the US Open, followed by Medvedev, Alcaraz, and Kyrgios.

 

Summary

I’m expecting an interesting tug of war this year between Djokovic/Nadal and the New Four of Alcaraz, Sinner, Rune, and Auger Aliassime.  I do expect Nadal to fade as his body becomes unmanageable.  The wild card for me is where the lost gen will fit in.  Will Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Ruud, Berrettini, and especially Zverev be able to mount a final assault on Olympus before the young gods take all the laurels?  I’ve got Djokovic at #1 for 2023, Alcaraz at #2, and Zverev at #3, and that’s kind of how I think the camps will land.  If the last couple years have taught us anything it is to expect the unexpected.  Buckle in for another exciting season!