Aus Open Women 2023

Iga Swiatek is far and away the leader on the WTA computer, with more than double the points of #2 Ons Jabeur.  But is Swiatek the favourite for the Australian Open title?

 

First Quarter

Swiatek (seeded 1) is the bookies’ favourite for the title, by some margin, and justifiably so.  She has been the most reliable performer of the past year, and was only beaten by Barty in last year’s semi-final at this tournament.  And then by February, she started on the streak, the four 1000, slam-winning extravaganza that anchored her year and separated her from the pack.  But the last six months have brought her down to earth a bit more.  She looks more like just ‘one of’ the upper echelon.  That echelon probably includes Garcia, Sabalenka, and Pegula – who all have recent wins over Iga – as well as Jabeur.

But none of those other four have won a slam, which is a significant hurdle to cross.  So even if she is one of equals, Swiatek has the advantage of knowing what it feels like to win a slam title.  If she wins this one, she’ll hold three of the last four – all but Wimbledon.  I don’t make her an outright favourite for this title, but she’s definitely in the mix.  She’s got a tricky opener against power-hitting Jule Niemeier in the first round – by no means easy.

There’s an intriguing first-rounder between Marie Bouzkova (25) and Bianca Andreescu.  Bouzkova had only won one slam match before last year, but won seven last year, including quarters at Wimbledon.  She’s on the rise.  Meanwhile Andreescu seems to be treading water – always on the verge of a comeback to re-find her US Open-winning form, but never quite getting there.

Wimbledon winner Elena Rybakina (22) is likely under-seeded.  She’s only ever made third round here, but the confidence of her Wimbledon victory should propel her to more deep runs.  Danielle Collins (13) was runner-up here last year and Karolina Muchova was a semi-finalist in 2021.  The winner among these three could face Swiatek in the fourth round.

Jelena Ostapenko (17) blows hot and cold but did win Roland Garros in 2017. Qinwen Zheng (29) rose over a hundred spots last year to win WTA Newcome of the Year. She pushed Swiatek hard in last year’s French Open fourth round.

Coco Gauff (7) looked very fine in taking a title last week.  It was her first time being the top seed in a tournament and she rose to the challenge.  She has the speed, backhand, serve, and forecourt game to overcome anyone, but her forehand can be a point of vulnerability.  Yet it takes a very skilled player to find it while withstanding the barrage from other parts of the court.

Swiatek def Gauff

 

Second Quarter

Jessica Pegula (3) finally looked like a world-beater in the season-opening United Cup team event.  Most notable was her victory over Swiatek, a 62 62 destruction that lasted just over an hour.  She ran Iga around, lacing powerful forehands down the line, and looked generally invincible.  She acknowledged that it was the fastest court the two had yet faced off on, and that may have been a key ingredient in her victory, as Swiatek did not have time to set up her for her big shots.  The Aus Open has typically played fast courts, but they do change from year to year, and it’s hard to know if they’ll be as fast as Sydney was.  With the confidence of a recent victory, there’s nothing to slow Pegula down.  I’m expecting a deep run.

Amanda Anisimova (28) is a power hitter who doesn’t move all that well.  But she likes these courts and made the fourth round last year, for the second time.  She’s a former French Open semi-finalist.  No one will want to face her.  Barbora Krejcikova (20) and Petra Kvitova (15) are former slam winners who could meet in the third round, but neither seem like title contenders.

Madison Keys (10) is a former US Open finalist who has been to five previous slam semis, including here last year.  She’s a big-hitter who is perpetually dangerous, if no longer a convincing contender.

There’s an interesting match-up between former Aus Open champs, Victoria Azarenka (24) and Sofia Kenin in the first round.  Kenin had a dreadful 2022 and is ranked #203, but just made the semis in Hobart – signs of life? Azarenka can still bring a top-tier game at times but her consistency in doing so has fallen way off.

Maria Sakkari (6) has a wonderful hard-hitting game that can take out anyone on her day.  But her propensity to melt down in big matches means that no lead is safe.  Until I see a stronger mental game from her I won’t predict deep runs for her.

Pegula def Sakkari

 

Third Quarter

Daria Kasatkina (8) plays with guile and slice to all corners of the court.  Her attractive game can be over-powered at times, but it can also get under anyone’s skin.  She has Veronika Kudermetova (9) in her eighth, who is a reliable, hard-hitter.  Kudermetova has been having a good run to get to her current ranking but has not yet shone at a slam.  This is about as favourable a draw as can be hoped for.  If she doesn’t pony up here, it may indicate this is her peak, although she’ll still have a chance to shine on clay, possibly a more favourable surface for her.

Karolina Pliskova (30) is a former #1 and one of the best players never to win a major. Her first round opponent is China’s Xiyu Wang, an up and coming 21-year old who made third round of the US Open.  Mostly I’m curious to see how high she can go.

Leylah Fernandez is another one I’m curious about.  Can she recapture the intensity of her 2021 US Open finalist run? She’s got a very tough first-rounder against Alize Cornet who made the quarters here last year, and an even tougher potential second round against Garcia.

Caroline Garcia (4) is an enigma wrapped inside a riddle.  She was the strongest player in the second half of 2022, and her march to triumph at the yearend WTA Championships was interrupted only by a non-fatal round robin loss to Swiatek.  She was not convincing this week in going down to Belinda Bencic in Adelaide, but her aggressive game and wonderful serving can beat anyone.  She could go out early or all the way to the title, and it’s hard to know which is more likely.

Garcia def Kudermetova

 

Fourth Quarter

Ons Jabeur (2) can handle fast courts, as her run to the Wimbledon final showed last year, and she can do well on hard courts, as her run to the US Open final showed.  Yet, she’s often considered strongest on clay.  So any surface seems to work for the self-appointed Tennis Minister of Happiness.  Despite making the finals of the last two slams, I’m underestimating her again, kind of like I do to Casper Ruud – also a two-time slam finalist last year.  Jabeur, despite wonderful variety in her play, can get over-powered at times.  But she’s tenacious enough to weather the storm of a big-hitter, and that may just see her through.

Marketa Vondrousova is a former French Open finalist playing now with a protected ranking.  I’m curious to see where her level is, but she can be dangerous.  I’m also wondering how Linda Fruhvirtova will do.  She’s notable for being a seventeen-year old, with her best wins last year coming over Azarenka and Mertens.

Liudmila Samsonova (18) is up and coming in early-mid career and has won four WTA titles.  She’s had wins over Sabalenka, Muguruza, Rybakina, Pliskova, and LFernandez last year. She’s now made two fourth-rounds at majors.  Can she take it to the next level?

Sloane Stephens continues to perplex, but as a former slam champion, merits mention.  She could meet Beatriz Haddad Maia (14) in the second round. BHM won two 250s on grass last June and then made a run to the final of the Canada 1000 with wins over Bencic, KaPliskova, and Swiatek.  But she’s never won more than one round at a slam.  It’s time for her to step up.

Belinda Bencic (12) just won the Adelaide 500 title today, taking out Muguruza, Garcia, and Kasatkina.  But despite three trips to the US Open quarters or better, she’s only ever made the fourth round in Melbourne.  It would be surprising but not shocking to see her win the title, but I’m expecting something like another fourth round.

Garbine Muguruza has fallen so low that she is unseeded.  The former four-time slam finalist (and two-time winner) dropped from #3 last year to a current ranking of #58.  But her talent is not to be under-estimated.  I’m expecting she’ll win no more than two matches, but she could also hold up the trophy in two weeks.

Aryna Sabalenka (5) was the #2 player of 2021, but she struggled in the first half of 2022.  Yet she regrouped and finished the year strong and climbed back to the #5 ranking. She took the 500 title at Adelaide 1 last week, but notable was her rivalry with Swiatek in 2022.  Sabalenka lost four consecutive matches to Iga, but nearly won in the US Open semi-finals, up a break in the third set.  Then she finally turned it around and beat Swiatek in the semis of the yearend WTA Finals, comprehensively dominating the final set 6-1.  With a strong start to 2023, she is the form player, and surprisingly has become the favourite pick among tennis experts and observers.  She’s got six votes to win, from 12 experts, against only three for Swiatek.  She’s my pick, too.

Sabalenka def Jabeur

 

Semis and Final

Swiatek def Pegula

Sabalenka def Garcia

Champion: Sabalenka def Swiatek

Any of my four predicted semi-finalists could win this title without surprising me, along with Jabeur.  All seem strong and primed for a win, in their own way.  I think the loss to Pegula last week will motivate Swiatek.  But it also showed up her vulnerability.  I kind of think she could lose early, but if she does make the final, she will probably be the favourite, as she grows in confidence through the draw.  A victory would be a fourth slam title for Swiatek and three-quarters of the career-slam, further cementing her legend.

My Sabalenka pick is a bit of a prayer, and could be momentum-bias.  She has not shown the consistency of a slam winner and her mental game is questionable in the biggest of matches.  She has the game to pull this off, but does she have the mind?

 

Experts and Journalist Picks

Sabalenka – 6 – Steve Tignor (tennis.com), David Kane (tennis.com), Stephanie Livaudais (tennis.com), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Faizan (Quality Shot), Stephen Boughton (The Slice)

Swiatek – 3 – Joel Drucker (tennis.com), D’Arcy Maine (ESPN), Amy Lundy (Connect Across the World)

Pegula – 2 – Matt Fitzgerald (tennis.com), Peter Bodo (tennis.com)

Jabeur – 1 – Jon Levey (tennis.com)

 

Bookies Picks

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 13 Jan 2023:

1	Swiatek	3.2
2	Sabalenka	7.5
3	Pegula	11
4	Garcia	13
5	Jabeur	15
6	Gauff	15
7	Bencic	21
8	Kudermetova	23
9	Krejcikova	26
10	Sakkari	29
11	Rybakina	29
12	Keys	34
13	Collins	34
14	QZheng	41
15	Samsonova	41
16	Kasatkina	41
17	Haddad Maia	41
18	Badosa	41
19	Kvitova	51
20	LFernandez	51
21	Azarenka	51
22	Vondrousova	67
23	KaPliskova	67
24	Anisimova	67
25	Muguruza	81
26	Kontaveit	81
27	Alexandrova	81
28	SZhang	101
29	Raducanu	101
30	Ostapenko	101
31	Kostyuk	101
32	Andreescu	101
33	Mertens	126