2022 Yearend Women’s Tennis and 2023 Predictions

 

Iga Swiatek is the clear #1 and dominant force on the WTA.  But would she be there if Ash Barty had kept playing?

 

Story of 2022

Ash Barty was undefeated for the year.  Which would be huge news if she had played more than two tournaments.  She won a warmup and then took the Australian Open, her third grand slam singles title.  She was the clear #1.  Finally, it felt like women’s tennis had a reliable champion.  She was the first woman to be named Player of the Year (by both the WTA and ITF) for two years, since Serena Williams’ run had come to an end in 2015.  But then she suddenly announced her retirement in March during the Miami 1000.

I feared that we would enter a period of aimless #1’s with no staying power.  But wow was I wrong.  Swiatek had been slowly climbing the ranks and by the time of Barty’s announcement was #2.  Even if Barty hadn’t retired, Iga would have seized #1 just three weeks after Miami. (Of course, Barty might have prevented that by playing and winning during that time.)

But like a shark, Iga smelled blood in the water and went for it.  She reeled off a 37-match win streak encompassing six titles that included three 1000’s and a slam title, at Roland Garros, her second.  By the end of the year, she’d annexed another two titles for a total of eight, including her third slam, at the US Open.

She also accumulated more ranking points, 11,085, than any other player at yearend since Serena Williams’ astonishing haul of 13,260 in 2013.  To my mind, Swiatek surpassed any of Barty’s best years by far.  Barty’s best yearend point haul was only 7,851.

That said, when Barty became the first Australian to claim the home title since 1978, I think most observers were thrilled for her.  She played a lovely, varied game and displayed a lovely personality too.  I wish her all the best in her new endeavours but do mourn the loss of the rivalries she might have had with Swiatek and all the other great players who will have flourished over the next eight or ten years.

By year’s end Swiatek had far outdistanced her competition in terms of matches won for the year, winning 20 more matches than her next nearest rival.

 

	Matches Won	Matches Lost	W-L Ratio
Barty	11	0	11+
Swiatek	67	9	7.44
Halep	39	11	3.55
Jabeur	47	17	2.76
Anisimova	33	14	2.36
Garcia	43	20	2.15
Bencic	38	18	2.11
Pegula	42	21	2.00
Rybakina	39	20	1.95
Kudermetova	39	20	1.95

 

Though Swiatek dominated, she was not the only story of 2022.  Danielle Collins made a surprise run to the Australian Open finals, displaying the talent many thought lay latent within her.

Naomi Osaka seemed to be returning to form after opting out of the last quarter of 2021, by making a run to the finals of Miami.  But Swiatek proved much too strong in the final, blitzing Osaka to the loss of only four games.  After that, Osaka won only three matches for the rest of the year, to six losses.  Hopefully this four-time slam champ can make a resurgence in 2023.

Ons Jabeur started the year ranked #10 and hit form in the clay season, making the finals in Charleston and Rome and winning the 1000 in Madrid.  She entered the French Open as the clear #2 pick (behind Swiatek) but bombed in the first round.  Redemption was not far away however and she made a surprise runs to the finals of both Wimbledon and the US Open, and picked up a title in Berlin for good measure.  She showed tremendous pluck in her deep slam runs and became, somehow, even more popular with fans across the world.  Her position as yearend #2 is most certainly deserved, and the gap to #3 would be even wider if Wimbledon points were counted.  This year saw her blossom into the potential so long suspected. Can she go even further next year?

Coco Gauff seems to thrive on clay and made her first slam final at Roland Garros.  She also made quarters at the US Open, and rose as high as #4 in the rankings before settling into #7 for yearend.  Still only 18 years old, she would seem to finally be achieving her potential, however technical weakness in her forehand stroke has insiders worried.

Beatriz Haddad-Maia of Brazil won two tournaments on grass, but fizzled at Wimbledon.  Wimbledon caused huge controversy by banning Russian and Belarussian players.  This was a ham-fisted move in my estimation since I believe sport should stay out of politics.  Instead I think, by setting aside differences on the playing field, we can start to come together more easily in the board room. Sport should break down walls, not reinforce them.  The ATP and WTA argued that Wimbledon had no right to ban players on the basis of nationality and stripped Wimbledon of points for their ranking systems.  All told, these actions had the unfortunate consequence of both penalizing Russian and Belarussian players as well as harming the rankings of the players who did well at Wimbledon… a sad affair.

Elena Rybakina shocked everyone by claiming the Wimbledon title. She beat two slam-winners in her run, and Jabeur in the final. Perhaps the combination of her relative obscurity and the lack of ranking points that should be planting her squarely in the top ten, have conspired to maintain that obscurity and all but remove her from the conversation of relevant or up-and-coming players.  With Wimbledon points she would have qualified for the World Tour Finals, giving her the opportunity to earn even more points, and gaining recognition as one of the top eight players of the year. To make matters worse, her previous best year was 2020, when, in a true 12-month ranking system, she would have finished yearend #10.  Instead she was banished by the adjusted covid rankings to anonymity at #19.  Fate may thus far have conspired to hide her, but the cognoscenti will not underestimate her future.

Caroline Garcia began the year ranked #74.  She had seemed to be wasting her talent since winning back to back 1000’s in 2017 and reaching #4 in 2018.  But she started to revive with a grass title at Bod Homburg in June.  She then won a clay title in Warsaw, handing out a rare Swiatek defeat in the quarters.  She had to qualify for the 1000 in Cincinnati, but reeled off eight matches in a row to claim the cup.  She then made her first slam semi-final, at the US Open, and ended the year by taking the yearend WTA Finals 1500 in Fort Worth.  She had won a title in each court environment: grass, clay, hard, and indoor.  Her four titles for the year are second only to Swiatek.

 

2022 Finals	Titles	Runners-up	Points from finals
Swiatek	8	1	9045
Jabeur	2	4	4960
Garcia	4	0	2960
Rybakina	1	2	2485
Barty	2	0	2470
Sakkari	0	4	1720
Sabalenka	0	3	1565
Pegula	1	1	1550

 

How good was Garcia’s second half?  Considering only points earned after Roland Garros, Garcia edged out Swiatek, gaining 4193 points to Swiatek’s 3925 in this period, with Rybakina third at 2718 points, just ahead of Pegula 2590, and Sabalenka 2572; (all totals include possible Wimbledon points).  Garcia’s game is aggressive, especially on serve return, and based on yearend form she should be a top contender for the biggest prizes in 2023.

Simona Halep suffered a torn calf muscle in mid-2021 that derailed her year and had her exit the top ten after a streak of 373 consecutive weeks, the longest in nearly 20 years (Seles in 2003).  This year, she slowly worked her way back into form and took the 1000 in Canada, re-entering the top 10.  But a few weeks later she shut down her season to undergo nose surgery.  She was then accused of a doping infraction, that both she and former coach Darren Cahill vigorously denied.  Hopefully, this (likely) baseless claim is resolved quickly.

Daria Kasatkina rejoined the top ten after an absence of three and a half years, on the strength of semi-finals at the Italian and French opens and two hard court titles in August at San Jose and Granby.

Liudmila Samsonova won three 250s toward the end of the year, and finishes the year ranked #20.

Seventeen year-old Linda Fruhvirtova won a 250 in September and finishes the year at #78, with the promise of a bright future.

Jessica Pegula had a banner year, rising from a previous career high at #18 all the way to #3.  She started the year strongly with a quarter-final at the Australian Open, made semis in Miami and the finals in Madrid.  She made quarters at 3 slams this year (all but Wimbledon), and capped off the year by taking the 1000 in Guadalajara, the second title of her career.

Maria Sakkari hung onto a slot in the top ten.  She had a strong Feb-Mar, making finals in St. Petersburg and Indian Wells, but then flat-lined until October when she made finals in Parma and the Guadalajara 1000.  She also made semis at the yearend WTA Finals, going undefeated in the round robin.  Despite the strong finish, she still has not won a title in three and a half years, and her propensity to lose important matches is worrisome.

Aryna Sabalenka had a terrible start to the year, losing her serve regularly and nearly drowning in double faults.  But she started to improve by mid year, making semis at the Cincy 1000 and the US Open, and finishing runner-up at the yearend championships punctuated with a win over Swiatek in the semis.  She nearly took Iga out of the US Open as well.  She has the bludgeoning game to hang with any one.

Veronika Kudermetova finishes at #9 in the official WTA rankings, however if Wimbledon points are included she’s only #11, because of the ban on Russians.   The first half of the year was strongest for her, making three finals (two 250s and one 500), as well as the quarters of the French.

 

Yearend Rankings

For 2022 I follow the WTA official rankings but with the addition of points that would have been awarded at Wimbledon.  Neither the ban on Russians at Wimbledon nor the removal of points seemed fair to me.

 

Yearend Ranking (including Wim)	Player	WTA Ranking (without Wim)	My prediction one year ago
1	Swiatek	1	6
2	Jabeur	2	17
3	Pegula	3	21
4	Garcia	4	>30
5	Sakkari	6	8
6	Sabalenka	5	3
7	Rybakina	21	29
8	Gauff	7	22
9	Halep	10	9
10	Kasatkina	8	27

 

Rybakina finishes at #7 because of her Wimbledon title, elevating her WTA point count by 2000.  However, Sabalenka, Kasatkina, and Kudermetova (#9 officially) all suffer from not being allowed to play Wimbledon.

The youngest in this year’s top ten are Gauf (18), Swiatek (21), Rybakina (23), and Sabalenka (24).  The only player over age 30 is Halep (31).

Four of my top ten predictions from last year did indeed finish in the top ten this yearend (Swiatek, Sakkari, Sabalenka, Halep), and only Garcia did not feature in my top 30 predictions from last year.  However, overall, I look like a rather poor prophet, so take what comes next with a lot of salt.

 

Predictions for 2023

It’s possible Swiatek won’t be #1 at the end of 2023, but it’s hard to imagine who has brighter prospects.  She was clearly dominant over the rest of the field in 2022, and with her complete game, excellent movement, and good mental toughness it’s easy to predict she will stay at #1.

Predicting #2 is a bit tougher.  Garcia earned the most WTA points in the last half of the year, but it was Sabalenka who impressed me most.  Her two tight matches with Swiatek toward the end of the year spell trouble for the opposition.  I could easily see her taking a slam or at least making a final.

I struggled where to put Garcia.  She’s good enough to be #1, but inconsistent enough to fall out of the top 10 or worse.  If she can hang on to form for a while, she should be able to get to #3.  She’s certainly capable of winning a slam, probably on hard courts, and as she demonstrated this year she can win on all surfaces.

Ons Jabeur gets my #4 prediction for 2023.  She could certainly repeat at #2 or even better if she can win a slam.  Her varied game is dangerous on all surfaces but she can get knocked around by power-hitters, more so than fellow all-court magician, Barty.

At #5 I have Coco Gauff.  She has the athleticism and temperament to be #1 and she’s only 18.  But until she fixes her forehand, I see this as her approximate ceiling.

Rybakina must be considered extremely dangerous now that she has a slam under her belt.  She can play well on all surfaces but on grass she probably has a leg up on the rest of the field.  I won’t expect another Wimbledon victory, but she’ll be among the favourites.  I pick her for #6 in 2023.

For #s 7 to 10 have Pegula, Sakkari, Kudermetova, and Halep.  Pegula has the consistency and mentality to be higher, but is lacking in weapons.  Sakkari needs to sort out her big match jitters.  Kudermetova may have the potential to be higher, but I haven’t seen enough consistency from her to be more optimistic.  Halep is still very good, but age is doing her no favours.

For #s 11 to 20 I’ll pick newcomer Qinwen Zheng at #11 followed by Collins, Ostapenko, Kasatkina, Badosa, Bencic, Kontaveit, Krejcikova, Andreescu, and Haddad Maia.

In the rather unpredictable spots of 21-30 I’ll take Anisimova, Samsonova, LFernandez, Bouzkova, Xiyu Wang, LFruhvirtova, Keys, Kvitova, Alexandrova, and Karolina Pliskova.  Any of the predicted 11-30 could be top-tenners, but it comes down to probability.  The ones I deem most likely to get there are the ones I pick.

 

Predicted Top Ten for 2023

	Predicted Rank
1	Swiatek
2	Sabalenka
3	Garcia
4	Jabeur
5	Gauff
6	Rybakina
7	Pegula
8	Sakkari
9	Kudermetova
10	Halep

 

Australian Open

I don’t think it’s by as large a margin as at Roland Garros, but Swiatek is my favourite for Australia.  Garcia is next, based on recent results, followed closely by Sabalenka and Jabeur.  Those four tower somewhat above the field in my opinion.  For the quarters I’ll take Halep, Rybakina, Pegula, and Collins.  The bookies have Swiatek, Garcia, Sabalenka, and Jabeur as their top four. All my bookies’ picks are from bet365.com on 1 Jan 2023.

 

Roland Garros

With two titles to her name Swiatek is the easy favourite to repeat at the French Open. Jabeur’s prowess on clay cannot be ignored, nor can my third pick’s, Simona Halep.  Rounding out the semis is last year’s finalist, Gauff.  For slots 5-8 I’ve got Garcia, Rybakina, Krejcikova, and Kasatkina.  The bookies’ top four are Swiatek, Jabeur, Garcia, and Sakkari

 

Wimbledon

Wimbledon is probably toughest to predict, since grass is such a minority surface on tour.  Jabeur’s finalist run last year impressed me.  I think she has a natural talent for grass.  For runner-up I pick Swiatek, just because she’s so good everywhere, she should be able to figure out grass.  Third is Rybakina, last year’s champion, and fourth is Sabalenka.  Garcia, Halep, Kasatkina, and Sakkari, round out my quarters.  Halep would probably be higher if she were playing more regularly. The bookies have Swiatek, Jabeur, Osaka, and Rybakina.

 

US Open

The US Open has had the most varied field of winners in recent years with eight different champions in the last nine years (and seven on the men’s side).  Swiatek is likely the safest pick as the defending champion, although she did not look nearly as dominant in New York as in Paris.  Sabalenka is my pick for runner-up, with Garcia third, and Jabeur fourth and not higher because she can get over-powered at times.  For the quarters I’ve got Rybakina, Gauff, Osaka, and Sakkari.  Osaka is a long way from peak form, but the Open is still a long ways away, and Naomi is particularly deadly there – when she’s in form. The bookies have Swiatek, Garcia, Sabalenka, and Jabeur in that order.

 

Summary

There isn’t much to suggest Swiatek will not be #1 in a year’s time.  The foundations of her game are solid and her movement is superb.  She looks more complete than all of her challengers.  However she could still lose focus or confidence or fall to an injury (hopefully not); or another player with particularly deadly weapons could pull it together for an extended time and get to #1 – someone like Garcia or Sabalenka.  But based on physical attributes and talent, Swiatek staying at the top seems a likely outcome.  I doubt she’ll repeat the 37-match win streak, and her numbers don’t suggest she’s going to be as dominant as, say, Steffi Graf.

Another possibility is that Swiatek might be threatened by a younger player who’s still finding their best game.  Two candidates that leap to mind are Coco Gauff, age 18, and Qinwen Zheng who is 20; or perhaps one of the Fruhvirtova sisters, Linda age 17, or Brenda age 15 – although they are likely still too young for a serious challenge.

Garcia and Sabalenka are probably the top picks for new players to win slams, with Jabeur very close behind.  The only sure thing is that most of my predictions won’t happen.