Aus Open Men 2023

Djokovic is back in Australia at the tournament he’s won nine times, and Nadal returns as defending champion in a state of relative fitness.  Will this old guard hold off the new generation for one more year?

 

First Quarter

Rafael Nadal (seeded 1) claims he is in reasonable health, and a healthy Nadal is always a threat for the title. His ball-striking talent, match strategy, and speed, are world class; and his mental toughness may be the greatest ever.  But how fragile is his health? He’s lost six of his last seven tour matches and has a very tough draw.  He opens against Jack Draper, an up and coming British 21-year old who rose from a ranking of #262 last year to #40 now, while claiming wins over Tsitsipas and Auger Aliassime.  It’s a rough road for both players, but a fresh Nadal should prevail.  The second and third rounds don’t get much easier, and by the fourth, Nadal could face Tiafoe who beat him in the US Open last year. Frances Tiafoe (16) has all kinds of weapons and went undefeated in United Cup last week, albeit not against a scintillating line-up.  If they should meet, I’ll expect a hyper-sharp Nadal to dust Tiafoe in a revenge match.  Not that Tiafoe can’t go all the way, but it would be a surprise.

Karen Khachanov (18) made the US Open semis last year.  Surprisingly, his match winning percentage in slams is ahead of Tsitsipas, Auger Aliassime, Kyrgios, and Ruud.  But he seems less of a threat than those players.

Hubert Hurkacz (10) is a decent top ten player with an aggressive game, who has never made it past the second round of a hard court slam.  But it looks like he could.

Denis Shapovalov (20) has slipped a bit in the last year, in part because his explosive game is notoriously unreliable.  He’s made three slam quarters or better and had Nadal on the ropes in a five-setter here last year.  The key to greater success is more consistency.

Sebastian Korda (29) had a great start to the year, making the final in Adelaide 1, and holding a match point on Djokovic.  He also made two 250 finals at the end of 2022.  He’s made four third-rounds or better in eight appearances at slams, which is decent for a young player.  He seems to be making a jump up in level, but he’ll have a tough third-rounder if he faces Medvedev.

Daniil Medvedev (7) was the bookies’ favourite for the Aus Open last year, and he’s still the second favourite this year.  He’s been to two finals here, and was up to two sets to love on Nadal in last year’s final before blowing a sitter to give him a 4-2 advantage in the third.  But he missed and the match shifted irrevocably.  The surface suits him.  Yet, despite being #1 for 16 weeks, last year was seen as a semi-failure for Medvedev, partly due to injury, partly by being banned from Wimbledon, and mostly because his level descended. He had the dubious distinction of losing all three matches at the yearend ATP Finals 7-6 in the third.  The general feeling in the salon is that he’s on the road back.  I think he should make the quarters, but if Nadal does too, it will be a problem.  Nadal leads their head to head 5-1.

Nadal def DMedvedev

 

Second Quarter

Stefanos Tsitsipas (3) is undoubtedly a major talent.  He’s got two wins over each of Nadal and Djokovic, but he also has 17 losses.  He had the most match wins last year, but aside from the Monte Carlo 1000, he didn’t win the biggest tournaments.  His backhand can be vulnerable. But Melbourne is arguably his strongest slam.  He should benefit from new-year vibes, the feeling of fresh opportunity.  His first match against Quentin Halys is not a gimme. He could take the quarter, but facing Nadal in the semis would be tough.

Lorenzo Musetti (17) has been quietly climbing the ranks, from #59 a year ago to #19 now. He’s still only 20 years old.  He beat Alcaraz, Ruud, and Berrettini last year.  I’d be a bit more optimistic about him in this tournament if he hadn’t tweaked a shoulder last week.

Jannik Sinner (15) may be under-ranked.  Only Nadal and Alcaraz won more slam rounds than Sinner in 2022. He has been a little injury-prone.  Still only 21 years old, hopefully he matures into a healthier body that allows him to challenge the top players consistently.  He’s a real contender for this quarter, but may have to get through Tsitsipas and Auger Aliassime.

Cameron Norrie (11) is somehow easy to under-estimate.  He’s perpetually dangerous and highly ranked, but perhaps lacks the weapons to truly challenge for the top.  Regardless, this is a quarter he could win.  There are excellent players here but none that feel invincible.

Borna Coric (21) made a statement return to form by taking the 1000 in Canada last summer.  He’s been decent ever since, but with a 12-6 match record since that run, does not look particularly threatening.

Stan Wawrinka merits mention for being a former champ here, but seems far from his best game.

The second highest seed in this section is Felix Auger Aliassime (6). He looked awesome at the end of last year taking three straight titles in fall, but a first round loss to Alexei Popyrin this week is not heartening.  He’s jumped a level in the last year.  The ball-striking has always been solid, but the biggest improvement has been in the mental department.  He’s getting close to seeming like an actual slam contender.  Could this be his breakout major?

Tsitsipas def Auger Aliassime

 

Third Quarter

Andrey Rublev (5) must be tired of hearing that he’s been to six slam quarters without ever making a semi.  He could do it here but he’s in a loaded section, and may have to beat Kyrgios and Djokovic to break the curse.  He’s got a wonderful hard-hitting game but seems to lack the extra bit of creativity or variety necessary to win the big one.

Nick Kyrgios (19) is definitely under-ranked. If Wimbledon points were being counted he’d be #11.  The last six months have been the best of his career.  He’s finally buckled down, concentrated on tennis and produced the results to back up the potential so long prophesied.  Will he keep it going? He hasn’t played an official match for three months.  His home slam is hugely significant to him, and was the launching pad for his 2022, where he and Thanasi Kokkinakis won the doubles title.  All signs would seem to be pointing to a deep run for him. But I have two caveats: first the pressure of expectation now that he's made a slam final and is at his home slam, and second, the Netflix documentary.  “Break Point” debuted yesterday and Kyrgios is the star of the first episode.  It will undoubtedly add to the already massive attention he will be facing. All of it will serve to distract Nick, possibly make him over-confident, and may make him more prone to emotional outbursts.  If he can somehow put it all to the side, he’s got the talent to take this title, even if it means facing Djokovic in the quarters.

One of the most intriguing matches of this tournament could be a third rounder between Kyrgios and Holger Rune (9).  Rune is at the top of everyone’s expectation list.  The 19-year old is up to #10 in the world.  He made the final of the last four tournaments he played in 2022, winning two of them, including the Paris 1000 in which he beat five top ten players, including Alcaraz and Djokovic.  A trip to the title in Melbourne would not surprise.  Mitigating all this is a rather uninspiring loss to Nishioka in the first round of Adelaide last week, which has supplied some much needed perspective.  Rune can be described as ‘cocky,’ and a clash between Rune and Kyrgios would almost certainly produce mouth-watering aggro for those so inclined.

Pablo Carreno Busta (14) is a solid hard court player.  He’s a respectable 15-9 at the Aus Open.  He’s got two wins over Djokovic, both meltdowns on Djokovic’s part, but relies more on consistency than genius.

Alex de Minaur (22) will have crowd support at his home slam and his persistent speed and feistiness can take him far. He is a little under-powered.

Novak Djokovic (5) is undoubtedly the favourite for this tournament. The bookies have his odds at 1.83, equivalent to -120 American odds.  If he wins the title he will reassume the mantle of #1, even without the 2000 points that are merited by his Wimbledon crown.  He’s won five of the last six tournaments he’s played and seems like the ‘best’ player right now, even if not officially #1.  But playing the devil’s advocate for a moment, nearly all commentators seem ready to de facto hand the title to Djokovic.  And that attitude can create both over-confidence and expectation.  Djokovic is mature enough to fend that off, but he still needs to go out there and win seven matches by out-playing his opponents.  There has been concern over a hamstring injury in his last tournament, but I’m guessing he will have the time to overcome that, especially if he doesn’t re-aggravate it.

Djokovic def Kyrgios

 

Fourth Quarter

Taylor Fritz (8) had a breakout year in 2022. He handed an (admittedly injured) Nadal his first loss of last year in taking his first 1000 at Indian Wells.  He then won a grass title at the Eastbourne 250 and took Nadal to five sets in the quarters of Wimbledon.  In fall he won the Tokyo 500 and made the semis of the yearend ATP Finals with another win over Nadal.  This year he looked very strong at the United Cup, with wins over Berrettini, Hurkacz, and Zverev.  His star is still rising, and this quarter is takeable.

Alexander Zverev (12) suffered a gasp-inducing ankle injury in last year’s French semis against Nadal.  After seven months off, he’s finally returned to the court but looked rusty and with limited mobility in two losses.  It’s hard to say if he will have enough time to play his way back into form, or if his ankle will hold up in best of five set matches.

Matteo Berrettini (13) had an injury- and covid-riddled year in 2022.  But he’s made the quarter finals or better at his last five slam tournaments, including runner-up at Wimbledon in 2021.  He does well at slams.  He’s got a huge serve and forehand – he sort of channels Juan Martin del Potro – but he’s vulnerable on the backhand.  He’s the active player with the best match winning percentage in the slams without actually winning one. He could face Andy Murray in the first round.  The five-time finalist here is far from his best form, but he is back into the world’s top fifty.

The bottom slot in the draw belongs to Casper Ruud (2).  Last year’s double slam runner-up could go deep again.  There isn’t an overwhelming favourite in this section, which means opportunity for the disciplined and consistent Ruud.

Fritz def Berrettini

 

Semis and Final

Nadal def Tsitsipas

Djokovic def Fritz

Champion: Djokovic def Nadal

Djokovic is far and away the favourite for the title, but Nadal and Medvedev should not be discounted.  If Djokovic does manage to claim his tenth Aus Open, he will trail only Margaret Court’s 11 in singles.  He would also tie Nadal at 22 in the men’s slam race for the Open Era – not forgetting Ken Rosewall’s 23 majors from the amateur, pro, and open eras.

 

Experts and Journalist Picks

Djokovic – 11 – Steve Tignor (tennis.com), Joel Drucker (tennis.com), Matt Fitzgerald (tennis.com), David Kane (tennis.com), Stephanie Livaudais (tennis.com), Jon Levey (tennis.com), D’Arcy Maine (ESPN), Jon Wertheim (Sports Illustrated), Amy Lundy (Connect Across the World), Stephen Boughton (The Slice), Gill Gross (Monday Match Analysis)

Tsitsipas – 1 – Peter Bodo (tennis.com)

Kyrgios – 1 – Faizan (Quality Shot),

 

Bookies Picks

Decimal odds from bet365.com on 13 Jan 2023:

1	Djokovic	1.83
2	DMedvedev	7
3	Tsitsipas	13
4	Nadal	17
5	Kyrgios	17
6	Sinner	19
7	Fritz	19
8	AugerAliassime	21
9	Rune	26
10	AZverev	34
11	CaRuud	34
12	Berrettini	34
13	SKorda	41
14	Norrie	51
15	Shapovalov	81
16	Rublev	81
17	Hurkacz	81
18	Tiafoe	101
19	Khachanov	126
20	JDraper	126
21	deMinaur	126
22	Coric	126
23	Wawrinka	151
24	Paul	151
25	CarrenoBusta	151
26	Bautista Agut	151
27	Nakashima	201
28	AMurray	201
29	Kecmanovic	201
30	Brooksby	201
31	Thiem	251
32	Kokkinakis	251
33	Dimitrov	251