Story of the Year
31 Dec 2023
Ben Shelton, Holger Rune, Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz –
the future is here!
It’s hard to remember that Novak Djokovic started 2023 in
the #5 spot on the computer. So his
dominance was far from assured. Now, at
year’s end, it seems obvious that he is, and has been for some time, the best
player in the game. This is partially because of the odd circumstances of last
year in which he couldn’t play half the slams or 1000’s because of vaccine-passport
issues. Plus the slam he did win, didn’t
count for any points. So although the
computer said he was only #5, there’s an argument that he’s never stopped being
the best during the last four years. All
this to say, surprise surprise, Djokovic is #1.
His year started with a massive effort at the Australian
Open. After tweaking a hamstring in a
warm-up tournament at Adelaide, he somehow managed to gut his way through seven
best-of-five matches and, with an anguished roar, claim the title. However, his lack of vaccine-passport kept
him out of the 1000s of the Sunshine Double.
In the meantime, Daniil Medvedev went on a tear claiming Rotterdam,
Doha, Dubai, and Miami, and finishing runner-up in Indian Wells. When the self-proclaimed clay-hater made a
shock run to the Rome 1000 title, pundits dubbed him Clay-vedev and made him a
favourite for the French. He beat
Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Holger Rune in Rome, but disappointed
and lost in the first round of the French.
In addition to Rome, Holger Rune also made the clay final of
the Monte Carlo 1000 and won the Munich 250 on clay. He then made the quarters at both Roland
Garros and Wimbledon, turning in a very fine first half that had him at #5 in
the yearly race. But he hit a flat spot, losing 8 of nine matches before
stopping the bleeding in October. He
just squeaked into the Tour Finals where he won a match by retirement and took
a set from Djokovic.
Andrey Rublev had another good year claiming his first 1000
title in Monte Carlo. He also won the
Bastad 250, and made four other finals, to finish yearend #5. As usual, I had
underestimated him.
Although Carlos Alcaraz claimed his first slam and finished
yearend #1 for 2022, the restrictions on Djokovic had some questioning if Carlos
was the ‘real’ #1. They traded the
ranking back and forth throughout 2023.
Alcaraz missed the Australian but made his presence known by winning Buenos
Aires and the 1000 in Indian Wells.
Switching to clay he took the Barcelona 500 and the Madrid 1000 and was
most observers’ favourite for the French title.
Despite the strong start in Australia, Djokovic had lost in
four consecutive tournaments when he arrived at Roland Garros. As Carlos and Novak proceeded through the
draw, tension was building, and when they were finally slated to meet in the
semis, the vast mass of commentators picked Carlos to win and go on to another
slam title. Djokovic came out on fire, blazing
through the first set, before Alcaraz found his range and eked out the second
7-5. But at the beginning of the third,
it became evident that Alcaraz had been holding too much tension in his body,
from the pressure of playing Djokovic in such a consequential match. His body seized up and he was unable to offer
further resistance, as Djokovic easily swept the last two sets. Djokovic then went on to a straight-set
victory over Casper Ruud, who surprised by making a third slam final – the highlight
of Ruud’s year by some margin.
Alcaraz recovered quickly and took the Queen’s title in
London on grass. When he went on to make
the Wimbledon final, facing Djokovic, few gave him much chance of defeating the
seven-time champion. But the match
turned into a five-set classic. Again
Djokovic swept the first set, and again Carlos made the second much closer – he
was managing his nerves well this time. In
the tiebreaker Novak was a routine forehand away from a commanding two-set
lead, but somehow hit it into the net.
It let Alcaraz back into the match and to almost everyone’s surprise, a
trip to the trophy. Now the question of
who was #1 appeared legitimate, since, after four straight titles there,
Djokovic had been presumed invincible at Wimbledon.
They resumed their rivalry in the final of the Cincinnati
1000 in what was the match of the year by my estimation, and may have swung the
tide decisively in Djokovic’s favour.
There were many twists and turns, and extreme heat. Alcaraz won the first set 7-5, and after
losing a break advantage deep in the second set, forced a tiebreaker. Alcaraz went up 6-5, match point, serving. Djokovic hit a winning return and closed the
set a few points later. The third set was
no less thrilling as Djokovic earned four match points while up 5-3 and
5-4. But Alcaraz broke back and forced another
tiebreaker. This time Djokovic won, but
it was clear that the rivalry was very real, and the ‘real’ #1 was by no means
clear.
Entering the US Open, both Alcaraz and Djokovic were holding
two slam titles. The dream final
appeared inevitable when Alcaraz faced Medvedev in the semis, whom he’d beaten
twice in straight sets this year.
However Daniil turned the tables, playing brilliantly, but was
straight-setted in the final by Djokovic.
With three slam titles, the race for yearend #1 was all but
settled in the minds of most, but the numbers showed Alcaraz was still in
strong contention for the top spot. But Carlos
went 7-5 (W-L) for the rest of the year while Djokovic was amassing a 19-match
win streak that included his 40th 1000 title, in Paris. Novak also won the ATP Finals for a record 7th
time, but fell short of claiming a second Davis Cup.
He was foiled by Jannik Sinner. Sinner broke through to his first slam semi-final
at Wimbledon and won his first 1000, in Canada.
The firsts continued as he went 20-2 after the US Open. He scored his first victory over Novak Djokovic
beating him twice, his first victory over Medvedev beating him three times, and
scored a fourth victory over Carlos Alcaraz.
Plus he led his country to the Davis Cup. The only goals remaining are of the highest
order, a slam trophy and the #1 ranking.
He looks primed to achieve them.
Top Ten Predictions
At the end of 2022 I predicted a top ten for the ATP as
follows:
I managed to get seven in the top 10 this year, and an eighth
was only one spot out. Nadal dropped out after the Australian Open, so it was
really only Auger Aliassime who disappointed.
The three who made it into the top ten that I did not predict, Rublev,
Fritz, and Hurkacz, I predicted at 11, 12, and 14, so overall I’m quite pleased
with my prophet-ability!
Looking ahead to next year Djokovic and Alcaraz
are surely the top two contenders. Their
absorbing rivalry this year set the stage for hopefully many more, consequential
matches. They’ve won the last six slam titles,
and in mentality seem head and shoulders above the rest of the field. Djokovic is a marvel of agelessness, but he
will likely play a lighter schedule than Alcaraz, which should favour Carlos in
the race for #1. Other than Wimbledon,
Djokovic won the battle of wills, and I’m intrigued to see if Carlos will
battle back. Perhaps illogically, I’ll side with youth over experience for 2024
and predict Alcaraz to be #1.
Of course, a healthy Nadal would give up nothing in
the mental strength department, but whether or not he can be uninjured enough
to contend is an open question. Without
evidence to the contrary, Nadal should be counted among the top three for 2024,
and a trivalry among Djo-Alc-Nad would be delicious. But with questions over Rafa’s durability I’ll
expect him to play a light schedule and put him in the top ten but not higher. I’ll be curious to see if he can add to his
title haul.
|
Open Era |
Titles |
|
Connors |
109 |
|
Federer |
103 |
|
Djokovic |
98 |
|
Lendl |
94 |
|
Nadal |
92 |
|
McEnroe |
77 |
Jannik Sinner could potentially challenge for
#1. To do it he’ll have to enter unknown
territory and claim a slam final, so it’s a big ask. But the way he dominated the other top
players at year’s end, it certainly looks possible, although not totally
likely. Finishing 2024 at #3 seems well
within reason.
The other former #1 with something to say about it could be Daniil
Medvedev. He’s now been in five slam
finals, the first to accomplish that outside of the Big Four since Andy
Roddick. After a dodgy 2022, Medvedev
was back with a vengeance. He’s now won
20 tour-level titles, without ever winning the same twice. He’ll be running out of new options soon, but
I’ll bet he repeats somewhere in 2024.
|
2023 Finals |
Titles |
Runners-up |
Points from finals |
|
Djokovic |
7 |
1 |
10,950 |
|
Alcaraz |
6 |
2 |
6150 |
|
DMedvedev |
5 |
4 |
5650 |
|
JSinner |
4 |
4 |
4150 |
|
Rublev |
2 |
4 |
2400 |
|
Tsitsipas |
1 |
2 |
1750 |
|
CaRuud |
1 |
2 |
1600 |
Holger Rune is only 20 years old. He’s been ranked as high as #4. He’s been very, very good, and inferences
from his ranking trajectory suggest he is heading for slam titles and #1 at
some point in his career. But he still
has some hurdles to cross. He’s been in
three slam quarter-finals but not further, and his form has been patchy,
brilliant for a few months, and then not so.
For this year, he looks like a good bet for #5.
Alexander Zverev suffered a horrific foot injury in
2022, and it took him a while to find his footing (!) in 2023. But he was
fourth in ranking points earned after Wimbledon. He’s definitely on the way back, and if he
can keep his head on could contend for the biggest titles in 2024. That might be challenging as he faces
domestic abuse charges in court, again.
|
Ranking Points post
Wimbledon |
2023 |
|
Djokovic |
5300 |
|
Sinner |
3370 |
|
DMedvedev |
2525 |
|
AZverev |
2330 |
|
Alcaraz |
2180 |
|
Hurkacz |
1975 |
|
Rublev |
1860 |
|
Shelton |
1500 |
In predicting #7 for 2024 it’s hard to overlook Andrey Rublev.
Especially since I did exactly that the last two years, predicting him at #11,
and yet he’s made the computer top 10 four years in a row now. He’s won 12 titles in the last four years, a
number bettered only by Djokovic and Medvedev, and equalled by Alcaraz. He also has the dubious distinction of making
nine slam quarter-finals without ever advancing to a semi. I’ve reluctantly accepted that his
one-dimensional power baseline game is effective, but it also relegates him to
life just outside the very top.
|
Most slam quarters
without a semi |
All time |
|
Rublev |
9 |
|
Robredo |
7 |
|
Bobby Wilson (1950’s
& 60’s) |
7 |
|
Guy Forget (1980’s) |
5 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas had a strong first half of the
year, making his second slam final, this time at the Australian Open. Had he made the final at the US Open instead,
his name would likely be on everyone’s tongue as a force to watch out for in
2024, but instead, it’s seemed like his best chances are behind him. A high profile split with Paula Badosa and a
few rounds of the coaching carousel that saw him land back with his father by
year’s end do not look promising. He started
to show signs of revival in the last months, and he’s still only 25. There is time to right the ship, but for now
#8 in 2024 seems about right.
With Nadal slotted into #10, choosing #9 was my toughest
choice in predicting the next yearend top ten.
It came down to Shelton, Hubert Hurkacz, or Ruud. At one point Casper Ruud was one match
away from the #1 ranking in 2022, but has fallen to #11. He made a third slam final, at the French,
but other than that, mounted a fairly mediocre campaign. It always felt like he
was punching above his weight in making those slam finals, and I think just
outside the top ten is a realistic spot for him given the current menu of
talent.
Hubert Hurkacz is oh so good, and the serve is an
undeniable force. The movement is
reasonable but the forehand is a little dodgy at times. He claimed his second
1000 crown, this year in Shanghai, but has not thriven at the slams, where his
only trip past the fourth round was a semi at Wimbledon in 2021. He’s squeaked into the top ten on the
computer the last three years, and could well do it again.
But my final top ten pick for 2024 goes to Ben Shelton. Shelton started the year with a bang by
making the quarters at the Australian Open.
But then he hit a slump, winning only seven matches in the next seven
months until the US Open. He suddenly
awoke, and roared to the semi-finals behind a booming serve and forehand,
defeating four current or former top-ten players. He then won the 500 in Tokyo. His weapons and athleticism remind me a
little of Pete Sampras, although he has not yet shown the killer mentality and
nervelessness that set Sampras apart from his peers. Even with his lengthy trough, he finished the
year at #17, and should improve in 2024, so he gets my #9 prognostication
That leaves me with Hurkacz at #11 and Ruud at #12. For numbers 13-20 I’ll go with Fritz, Draper,
De Minaur, Khachanov, Tiafoe, Tommy Paul, Auger Aliassime, and Berrettini. Jack Draper is still only age 22. He’s struggled with injury but he looked
dominating in taking the UTS Finals (Ultimate Tennis Showdown) in London during
the exhibition season. Currently #61, it
will be interesting to see how high he can go if he can stay healthy.
In the very unpredictable slots of #21-30 I’ll go with
Shapovalov, Dimitrov, Jarry, FCerundolo, Davidovich Fokina, Stricker,
Etcheverry, Arnaldi, SKorda, and Humbert.
Here are my predicted top ten for 2024:
|
|
Predicted for 2024 |
|
1 |
Alcaraz |
|
2 |
Djokovic |
|
3 |
JSinner |
|
4 |
DMedvedev |
|
5 |
Rune |
|
6 |
AZverev |
|
7 |
Rublev |
|
8 |
Tsitsipas |
|
9 |
Shelton |
|
10 |
Nadal |
Slam Predictions
Australian Open
Djokovic is a ten-time champion in Melbourne and has to be
the favourite based both on form at the end of 2023 and past history at the
tournament. Alcaraz appears to be the
main contender, in general, to Djokovic dominance, so he seems like a
reasonable choice for runner-up. For the
‘semis’ my third and fourth picks are Sinner and Medvedev. Last year’s finalist, Tsitsipas looks like a
good bet for the quarters, as do Rune and Rublev. My last top eight spot goes to Nadal. He could well go on to the final if he’s
playing well, but after a year’s worth of rust, I’m hesitant to pick more. Nadal just displaces Zverev who would be my next
pick. The bookies top eight are:
Djokovic, Alcaraz, Sinner, Medvedev, Nadal, Zverev, Rune, and Tsitsipas, with
Rublev relegated to 13th. All
bookies picks are from bet365.com on 29 Dec 2023.
Roland Garros
Carlos Alcaraz will surely want another shot at Djokovic
after succumbing to nerves in last year’s semi-final. I expect he will acquit
himself much better if he gets the chance.
But Djokovic can never be counted out and his management of best-of-five
is non-pareil. Still, I think Alcaraz is a better natural clay-courter so I
give him the edge. Throwing a wrench
into that future could be Nadal, who at 14-times champion, and having only ever
lost to two men at the French (Djokovic and the mythical Robin Soderling), has to
be considered. If he’s in reasonable
form and healthy, he could well be the favourite, but for now, I’ll slot him at
#3 for the title.
For fourth pick I’ll take Sinner who made the quarters on
his debut in 2020. My ‘quarter-final’ slots go to Tsitsipas, Zverev, Ruud, and
Rune who have all had reasonable success in Paris. The bookies have Alcaraz, Djokovic, Nadal,
Rune, Medvedev, Tsitsipas, Sinner, and Ruud, in that order.
Wimbledon
A repeat of last year’s spectacular final drama would be most
welcome. Again, Djokovic and Alcaraz should be considered the favourites. Based
on Djokovic’s seven titles and experience on the surface I’ll take him as a
slight favourite, although clearly Alcaraz’s game matches well to the surface.
Last year’s semi-finalist Sinner gets my nod for third, and in some regard I
can see that this might be the most likely place for him to break through into
the slam winner’s circle.
Last year’s other semi-finalist, Medvedev seems like a good
pick for fourth. For fifth I’ll gamble on the serve and forehand of Ben
Shelton, who, despite no history, looks to have a game well-suited to the
surface. Nadal is always dangerous at
the Big W, and to round it out I’ll take Rublev and Rune. Hurkacz would be a
reasonable choice for the top eight here, but is just pipped in my
estimation. If Berrettini or Kyrgios
play, they would also be worth watching.
The bookies name Alcaraz, Djokovic, Sinner, Medvedev, Nadal, Rune,
Tsitsipas, Fritz.
US Open
The US Open is perhaps the most neutral of the slams. It has
produced eight different champions in the last ten years, while the other three
slams combined have only produced six. A case could be made for any of Alcaraz,
Djokovic, or Medvedev to be the favourite.
They’ve won the last three editions.
I regard 10-time finalist, Djokovic, as a slight favourite, and despite
his loss to Medvedev last year, I think Alcaraz is next in line.
If Sinner can find his end of year form from 2023 he too
could contend. Shelton made the semis
last year and the familiarity of home conditions might give him an advantage.
For sixth, Zverev is a former finalist here, and eternal quarter-finalist, Rublev
is a safe pick for seventh. And although
it’s reasonably likely he won’t even play it, if Nadal is healthy he has to be
in the mix. The bookies have Djokovic,
Alcaraz, Medvedev, Sinner, Nadal, Zverev, Ruud, and Tsitsipas, in that order,
despite Tsitsipas never making it past the third round in New York.
Summary
There’s much to be excited about in the year to come. A knock-down fight for the top spot between
Alcaraz and Djokovic would be a treat.
Throw into the mix the power and consistency of Jannik Sinner, the wry
humour and general feistiness of Daniil Medvedev, and the return of Nadal and
things could get really fascinating. And
then there’s Rune and Shelton to consider.
Both are poised for a chance to write a new script for 2024. Let the games begin!
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