2024 Aus Open Women’s Preview

There does seem to be kind of a Big Four in women’s tennis.  Four players who are the favourites for the slams, consisting of Iga Swiatek, Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina, and Coco Gauff. These are the ones to whom the bookies give the best odds.

Of course, let’s not forget there are 20 active slam winners in the women’s game.  So a slam run from someone outside of the Big Four would hardly be surprising, but for the four favourites it feels to me that the gap is widening.  Their stature is increasing. 

So can someone else claim this Australian Open?  There are 10 former slam titlists outside the Big Four playing this tournament, and there are a host of up and comers and former slam finalists who could make it interesting.

 

First Quarter

Number one seed, Iga Swiatek, is the favourite of many pundits.  But if you could make a tough draw to test her, this is it.  Her early rounds pit her against former Aus Open champions, and the later rounds could have her face the three women who defeated her in slams last year.  Swiatek opens against 2020 champ Sofia Kenin, and the second will bring up either 2016 champion Angelique Kerber, who is returning to the tour as a mother, or Danielle Collins, who was a finalist in 2022.  All three of these opponents can still play at the highest level, but they aren’t bringing it consistently at this stage.  Czechs Linda Noskova and Marie Bouzkova (seeded 31) are matched in the first round.  Both are dangerous, especially perhaps the 19-year old Noskova who has started the year with a 5-1 (W-L) record.

The fourth round could have Swiatek against Elina Svitolina (19), who beat Iga at Wimbledon.  In addition to semis at Wimbledon and quarters at the French last year, Svitolina just made the final last week in Auckland where she lost a three-setter to Coco Gauff.  A quarter-final opponent for Swiatek could be Jelena Ostapenko (11), who took her out of the US Open and has a 4-0 record against Iga.  The mercurial Ostapenko is capable of beating or losing to anyone.  But she does seem to raise her game against the best players.  Another Ostapenko-Swiatek clash would be fascinating – to see if Iga’s new serve will help her against this most thorny of opponents.

Also here is Victoria Azarenka (18), former two-time champion, semi-finalist last year, who opens against the big-hitting and unpredictable Camilla Giorgi.  Fast-rising 22-year old American, Emma Navarro (27), is a bit unknown but would not surprise with a deep run.  Rounding out the quarter is reigning Wimbledon Champion, Marketa Vondrousova (7).  Vondrousova is notoriously variable and has won only one match in the last four months.  She’s been in two slam finals and it’s dangerous to ever count her out.

Swiatek had a good warm-up run to this tournament, winning all five of her singles matches at the United Cup.  She could easily crush all opposition and run to the semi-finals.  But this dense quarter of Swiatek-foils will likely make it tough, and I think her odds of surviving to the semis are 50:50. And those are better than anyone else’s.

Swiatek def Ostapenko

 

Second Quarter

Elena Rybakina (3) headlines the second quarter. She has a tough opener against former #1 and two-time slam-finalist Karolina Pliskova.  Pliskova has dropped a bit, but can still find flashes of the old brilliance, like she did in defeating Osaka last week.  Daria Kasatkina (14) has made quarters or better three times at slams, but hasn’t been past the third round in Australia.  She has a potentially tough opener against Peyton Stearns, an American college player who emerged out of nowhere last year to rise to #48.

Rybakina made the final at the AO last year, and started the year strongly with a title from the loaded Brisbane draw.  Some journalists are tipping her as the favourite, and with her great power, consistency, calm demeanour, and current form, it’s easy to see why.

Despite just one tournament victory, Qinwen Zheng, age 21, has risen to the 12^th seeding.  She oozes talent to the eye-test and her potential seems high.  She could stage an entertaining fourth-rounder with #5 Jessica Pegula. The reliable Pegula, rarely blows away opponents, but is good enough to have reached six slam quarters without ever making a semi-final. She’d be the paper favourite against Zheng.

Rybakina def Zheng

 

Third Quarter

Two new mothers are stealing the show in this quarter, Caroline Wozniacki and Naomi Osaka.  Wozniacki had a strong return last year, making fourth round of the US Open, losing to eventual champion Gauff.  Wozniacki is a talented counter-puncher and I expect she will struggle against today’s power hitters.  She opens against last year’s surprise semi-finalist, 31-year old Magda Linette (20).

Nearby is Beatriz Haddad Maia (10), who turned a corner at the slams last year with a semi-final run at Roland Garros. The hard-hitting Haddad Maia could face equally hard-hitting Maria Sakkari (8) in the fourth round. Sakkari can beat anyone but is notoriously under-performing at the slams and in big matches in general. Perhaps her new mental coach will help turn that around.

Meanwhile, Naomi Osaka has a tough opener against Caroline Garcia (16).  Garcia fell off dramatically in 2023 after finishing 2022 at #4.  But she’s still tough and plays a very aggressive, net-centric game.  She had three good wins at United Cup and was responsible for Swiatek’s only set lost this year.  I expect both players to be highly motivated in what is probably THE popcorn match of the first round.  I probably give the slightest edge to Osaka, based on pure ball-striking ability.

Leylah Fernandez (32) has channelled her old feistiness to positive effect in leading her country to the Billie Jean King Cup.  But the star of this quarter is recent US Open winner, Coco Gauff (4).  Still a teenager, Gauff showed that she can win on athleticism and one of the world’s best backhands.  Her forehand is still a glaring weakness, but it seems if she doesn’t think about it and believes in herself, she can win anyway.  I’m not sure that will take her all the way to the title, but it could take her very far.

Gauff def Haddad Maia

 

Fourth Quarter

Ons Jabeur (6) has seemed like a shell of herself since losing in last year’s Wimbledon final. She could have her hands full with 16-year old talent, Mirra Andreeva in the second round.  With a little luck and the determination she showed at Wimbledon, Andreeva has a decent draw if she can get through Jabeur.

Liudmila Samsonova (13) hasn’t found the slam magic yet, but she has been beating some very big names in recent months.  A trip to the second week is definitely possible.  She has an enticing first round against the returning Amanda Anisimova, who has twice made slam quarters or better.  The ever-dangerous Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, former Roland Garros finalist, is nearby in the draw, as is former #2, Paula Badosa.  Both are seeking to return to past form and can be very dangerous on their day, even if consistency has not yet returned.

And anchoring the bottom of the draw is #2 seed and defending champion, Aryna Sabalenka.  Sabalenka appeared to be having a fine start to the year till she got blitzed in the Brisbane final by Rybakina in straight sets.  But I won’t take that loss as definitive.  It may have been just the wake-up call Aryna needs to dig deeper for her best form.

Sabalenka def Andreeva.

 

Semis

In the end I have predicted the top four seeds to make the semis.  They are at the top for a reason – their fine play and consistent results over the last 12 months.  Perhaps most likely to upset the apple cart are Ostapenko, Zheng, and Andreeva.  It would be sensational if they did. 

Despite four straight losses to Ostapenko, and three straight to Rybakina, Swiatek has looked so focused and on point this year – so hungry – that I’m defying the logic of past results and predicting her to slay logic. Plus she’s on a 16-match win streak. 

And although I think Sabalenka has a more complete set of strokes, with fewer holes, I give a significant advantage to Gauff in the movement and mental toughness department.

It’s very close among these four, and a victory by any of them would not surprise me.

Swiatek def Rybakina, Gauff def Sabalenka

 

Final

Swiatek def Gauff

 

Expert Journalist Picks

Rybakina:  4       Steve Tignor (Tennis.com), Matt Fitzgerald (Tennis.com), Stephanie Livaudais (Tennis.com), Jon Levey (Tennis.com)

Swiatek: 4           Ed McGrogan (Tennis.com), Joel Drucker (Tennis.com), Kim Mackenzie (Tennis Weekly), David Law (The Tennis Podcast)

Gauff: 3               David Kane (Tennis.com), Peter Bodo (Tennis.com), Joel Girling (Tennis Weekly)

Svitolina: 1          Chris Kneebone (Tennis Weekly)

 

Bookies

From bet365.com on 9 Jan 2024, listed in order from the odds table.

1	Swiatek	3.25
2	Sabalenka	6
3	Rybakina	6
4	Gauff	8
5	Pegula	17
6	Osaka	19
7	Jabeur	21
8	MAndreeva	23
9	QZheng	26
10	Vondrousova	34
11	Garcia	41
12	Sakkari	41
13	Svitolina	41
14	Samsonova	41
15	Ostapenko	41
16	Krejcikova	51
17	VKudermetova	51
18	Andreescu (out)	51
19	Haddad Maia	51
20	Azarenka	67
21	Collins	67
22	Badosa	67
23	Kenin	67
24	Raducanu	67
25	KaPliskova	67
26	LFruhvirtova	81
27	LFernandez	81
28	Kasatkina	81
29	Wozniacki	81
30	Kerber	81
31	Boulter	101
32	Noskova	101
33	Stearns	101
34	Anisimova	101
35	Brady (out)	101
36	Siniakova	101
37	Stephens	101