2024 Aus Open Men’s Preview

Can anyone beat ten-time champion Novak Djokovic at his winningest tournament? I really, really want to say, YES.  We have a host of up and comers like Alcaraz, Sinner, Rune, and even Medvedev.  Despite Novak’s incredible mental strength at digging out wins down under, this could be the year he doesn’t win.  But who will it be?

 

First Quarter

There is actually some concern over Novak Djokovic’s fitness, as he complained of a wrist injury after his last match.  Last year he played through a leg injury in Melbourne but was able to manage his body and mind to win the title regardless.  But this injury is more concerning to me.  Wrists affect all strokes and they’re more fragile than legs.  Beyond that, he suffered an uncharacteristic loss to Alex De Minaur at the United Cup; plus two losses to Sinner at the end of last year.  For a healthy Djokovic I wouldn’t worry about the losses.  But combine the recent losses with questions over his wrist, and I feel Novak is vulnerable in this tournament. 

On the other hand, he’s lost only three times in the last seven months.  Near to him in the draw are former top players Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, and Gael Monfils.  If any of them make it far enough to meet Djokovic, they are likely to be sent packing.

More dangerous might be Ben Shelton, (seeded 16).  The young American made quarters here last year and semis at the US Open, so he’s done well at hard court slams.  His big serve and forehand, plus athleticism give him a high ceiling.  In Shelton’s relatively unpolished form, I would expect Djokovic to handle a clash with Shelton comfortably, but if Novak is slightly injured, an upset is not impossible.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (7) made the final here last year.  He too, is dealing with injury, the back in his case.  He has a potentially tough opener against former top-tenner and Wimbledon finalist, Matteo Berrettini.  Berrettini has been struggling to come back, and missed the last four months of last year, so I expect he will not be at his sharpest.  Tsitsipas should win, and should win against a likely second-rounder against Jordan Thompson.  But Thompson put on a clinic in defeating Nadal in Brisbane, and could trouble a sub-par Tsitsipas.  With a decent start, will Tsitsipas be able to play his way out of injury?

The fourth round could pit Stefanos against Taylor Fritz (12), who has made two slam quarter-finals.  Fritz has looked mediocre since the US Open, but his draw avoids landmines and could allow him to play into form.

Djokovic def Tsitsipas

 

Second Quarter

Alex De Minaur (10) has emerged from the off-season with more variety and power and has wracked up a string of impressive victories, claiming three top-ten scalps:  Fritz, Djokovic, and Alexander Zverev.  Any win against Djokovic is remarkable, but the near errorless play De Minaur displayed was breath-taking.  And his defeat of Zverev, who appeared to have been in near-invincible form, showed it was no fluke.  He’s got a possibly dangerous first rounder against Milos Raonic.  An in-form Raonic could blast De Minaur away, but Raonic is struggling to come back so likely won’t reach that level.

De Minaur’s second round could be against a near clone of himself, Matteo Arnaldi, who has been rapidly rising up the rankings after making fourth round at the US Open. And the third round could bring up the increasingly solid Nicholas Jarry (18).

Andrey Rublev (5) is at a career high ranking.  I’m tempted to ink him into a quarter-final slot.  He’s made a record nine slam quarters without ever making a semi.  He could end that here.  He’s added variety to his consistent baseline bashing.  He really has been improving and appears to be at his best ever.  But he may need to beat the 4-seed, Jannick Sinner to finally attain a semi.

Sinner has a challenging opener against the smooth-moving Botic Van de Zandschulp, but he will certainly be the favourite in that and several subsequent matches.  The fourth round could bring up past slam semi-finalists Francis Tiafoe (17) or Karen Khachanov (15).  Sinner was an absolute killer in the last months of 2023, claiming six wins over the combination of Alcaraz, Djokovic, and Medvedev.  He’s chosen not to play a warm-up tournament, so may be vulnerable to a first-round upset.  But if he plays into form, he should go very deep. Possibly even challenge for the title.  As brilliant as he’s been over best-of-three sets, he still needs to prove he can beat the best players over best-of-five at the slams.

Sinner def Rublev

 

Third Quarter

I’m not quite sure what to make of Holger Rune (8).  Any 20-year old in the top 10 is exceptional.  But although Rune has already won four titles and claimed wins over the best players, he has not shown consistency over several months.  Yet his highs have been good enough to get him to a #4 ranking and keep him in the top ten for more than 50 weeks.  However he has not been past the quarters of a slam.  He tends to make poor shot selection at times, by pulling the trigger to soon on net approaches.  Still, the talent is clearly there.  Will he go deep in this slam?

Roman Safiullin is ranked #36, just missing a seeding. He showed good form in making the semis in Brisbane last week, beating Shelton and Arnaldi.  I could foresee a good run from the hard-hitting Safiullin, although he’s scheduled to meet Rune in the third round.

Hubert Hurkacz (9) is always dangerous, especially on faster courts, like at the Aus Open. Speaking of dangerous, Grigor Dimitrov (13) claimed the title in Brisbane, beating Rune in the final in straight sets.  He ended 2023 with a run to the Paris 1000 final, beating Hurkacz, Tsitsipas, and Medvedev on the way. He’s in some of the best form of his life, at age 33.

The highest seed in this quarter belongs to Daniil Medvedev (3).  Like Sinner, he did not play any warm-up tournaments.  The two-time runner-up at the Australian Open has now been in five slam finals, claiming the 2021 US Open.  His 2023 was exceptional as he achieved career-highs in titles (5) and matches (66), although the first half of the year was certainly better than the last half: his last title was in May.  He’s been very good in Melbourne, but a loss to Rune or Dimitrov, who beat him in fall, is conceivable.  But odds on, I think he’s still the favourite for this section.

Medvedev def Rune

 

Fourth Quarter

Jack Draper (unseeded) has been touted for his potential but, although only 22 years old, has been in and out of injury for the last two years.  He finally seems healthy and made waves by winning the non-tour Ultimate Tennis Showdown in London in December.  His good form continued as he made the final in Adelaide this week. Will we see him living up to his potential at this slam?

He could face last year’s semi-finalist, Tommy Paul (14), in the second round.  Either player could face a severe test if they meet Carlos Alcaraz (2) in the fourth round.  Alcaraz’s proclivity for the Aus Open is basically unknown.  His two previous appearances are from his teen years and predate his breakout slam win at the 2022 US Open.  Alcaraz has not won any tournaments since his landmark win at Wimbledon last year.  But in making the semis at the Tour Finals in November, he showed me that his form is ready to his command.  I believe he will start the year with intensity and will be a force to be reckoned with at the year’s first slam.

Also in this quarter are three-time slam finalist Casper Ruud (11), and Alexander Zverev (6).  Ruud does not appear to be a serious threat at non-clay slams.  I’m not saying he’s deteriorated, but perhaps the field has figured out how to play him.  Zverev appeared to be in deadly form at the United Cup last week, despite a 3-set loss to De Minaur.  He seems to be fully recovered from the devastating foot injury that ended his 2022 campaign.  I think Zverev’s form may actually be good enough to contend for the title.  It would not surprise me to see him in the final.  But he will have a serious obstacle to overcome in Alcaraz.

Alcaraz def Zverev

 

Semis

Like for the women, I’m predicting the top four seeds to make the semis.  I believe, however, that the top four men face a greater challenge than do the women.  I think the competition from Zverev, Dimitrov, Rune, Rublev, and perhaps even De Minaur and Shelton, will be intense.

It’s a risk, but with questions over Djokovic’s health, and renewed intensity from Sinner and Alcaraz, I’m predicting the youngsters for the final.

Sinner def Djokovic, Alcaraz def Medvedev

 

Final

In the end, I think Sinner will need to lose a slam final before he’s psychologically ready to claim a title.  His career so far has been very incremental, and I expect that to continue.

Alcaraz def Sinner

 

Expert Journalist Picks

Djokovic:  5         Gill Gross (Monday Match Analysis), Joel Drucker (Tennis.com), Matt Fitzgerald (Tennis.com), Kim Mackenzie (Tennis Weekly), Joel Girling (Tennis Weekly)

Sinner:  3             Ed McGrogan (Tennis.com), Jon Levey (Tennis.com), Chris Kneebone (Tennis Weekly)

Alcaraz:  2           Stephanie Livaudais (Tennis.com), Peter Bodo (Tennis.com)

Medvedev: 2      Steve Tignor (Tennis.com), David Kane (Tennis.com)

 

Bookies

From bet365.com on 9 Jan 2024, listed in order from the odds table.

1	Djokovic	2.10
2	Alcaraz	4.33
3	JSinner	7.5
4	DMedvedev	10
5	Rune	23
6	AZverev	26
7	Tsitsipas	34
8	Dimitrov	41
9	Shelton	51
10	De Minaur	51
11	CaRuud	51
12	Fritz	67
13	Rublev	67
14	Hurkacz	81
15	SKorda	81
16	AMurray	81
17	Tiafoe	81
18	Berrettini	101
19	Auger Aliassime	101
20	Khachanov	101
21	TPaul	101
22	Davidovich Fokina	126
23	Thompson	151
24	Shapovalov	151
25	Safiullin	151
26	Lehecka	151
27	JDraper	151
28	Humbert	151
29	Musetti	151
30	Medjedovic	151