1982 and Mandlikova = Andy Murray

Jul 2010

I started writing an imaginary book in my head as I was trying to fall asleep two nights ago – a brief historical overview of tennis.  I was thinking of women’s tennis in the open era and when I got to the transition from the 70’s to the 80’s I realized what an incredibly exciting time it must have been.  Even more interestingly, there are some possible parallels to the big 4 today in men’s tennis.

The 70’s and 80’s tend to get cast in the long shadow of the Chris-Martina wars.  They played 80 times in professional play and each nabbed 18 grand slam titles.  There just didn’t seem room for much else.  But as I thought about it I realized that’s really an oversimplification.

After Billie Jean King (3 slams in 1972) and Margaret Court (3 slams in 1973) seemed to have vanquished the latest pretender to the throne, Evonne Goolagong, who had won the French and Wimbledon in 1971, the King and Court show seemed finally to close with the dawn of Chris Evert in 1974.  Evert went on to dominate the 70’s claiming 9 majors in that decade and the number #1 ranking for at least 4 consecutive years.

But there was an undercurrent afoot – the rise of players from the eastern bloc countries.  First on the scene was Olga Morozova who appeared in 2 slam finals in 1974.  In 1975 Martina Navratilova appeared in 2 slam finals, and in 1976 it was Renata Tomanova’s turn.  But despite these 6 assaults, none had been successful in claiming a major title.  Chrissie reigned supreme.  Then in 1977 Mima Jausovec from Yugoslavia, a country on the margin of the bloc, won the French title.  She was followed in 1978 by Virginia Ruzici from Romania, also claiming the French title.  However, these titles came in the absence of Evert, who didn’t play the French those years.

The real game-changers were still to come.  In 1978 Martina Navratilova finally began to realize some of the breadth of her talent and claimed the Wimbledon crown.  Wimbledon had traditionally been regarded as the biggest of tournaments – a sort of unofficial world championships – but with grass increasingly becoming a less frequent surface on the professional tours, the Wimbledon winner was no longer automatically crowned yearend #1 by sportswriters.

The status of #1 was becoming increasingly important and the arrival of computer rankings – for men in 1973 and for women in 1975 – was an attempt to take the guesswork and subjectivity out of both seedings and who should rightfully be regarded as the best player.  Since at least 1913, attempts had been made to rank the top 10 players worldwide each year.  By the time 1970 rolled around there were many such lists, among the most reputable were from Tennis magazine, World Tennis magazine, The Daily Telegraph, Bud Collins, L’Equipe in France, and a few other reputable bodies.  The problem was that the rankings did not always agree – not surprising since they were based on opinion.  It was usually possible to arrive at a consensus pick, or at least the most popular choice, for #1, say, but for numbers 2 to 10 it got very murky.

Despite their eventual success, by 1978 the new fangled computer rankings were not yet wholly trusted:  and one could argue they are still not fully trusted – look at the “real #1” debate in 2010 women’s tennis!

In 1978 Chris Evert retained her fourth straight US Open crown.  Because of her “reputable” Wimbledon title, some sportswriters gave #1 plaudits for the year to Navratilova, but most stuck with Evert.  Certainly, looking at Evert’s win-loss record for the year and the number of tournaments she won, and the “big” matches she won, she seems in retrospect to be the “real #1” for that year.  Even though the computer gave the slot to Navratilova, the ITF and the majority opinion was for Evert.

Things got even more interesting in 1979.  Evert reasserted her presence at the French and took the title.  But Navratilova proved that 1978 was no fluke and defended her Wimbledon crown. The battle for supremacy was further complicated when 16-year old Tracy Austin came out of nowhere to take the US Open.  But by year end Navratilova had the #1 computer ranking and this time the majority sportswriter vote, as well as the newly instituted yearend #1 declaration of the ITF (which began in 1978), and so she is generally regarded as the yearend #1 for 1979.

But things were still heating up.  In 1980 Evert was back with a vengeance winning the French and US titles and falling in the final at Wimbledon to Goolagong.  Meanwhile Tracy Austin spent much of the year at the #1 computer ranking and won an astonishing 11 titles.  However, she failed to make a final at the majors.  Navratilova hardly fell off, claiming 11 titles of her own.  But she lost in the SF at Wimbledon and the 4R at the US Open, and is generally regarded as #3 for the year.  Goolagong had reasserted her presence with the win at Wimbledon, but really the battle at the top was an increasingly interesting tussle between Evert, Navratilova, and Austin.

Paralleling men’s tennis today, I put Evert in Federer’s role as the longstanding #1 at the end of 2007.  Nadal’s breakthrough to #1 in 2008 after flirting with the top parallels Navratilova’s ascension in 1979.  Almost immediately another young gun breaks on the scene in the form of Tracy Austin / Novak Djokovic and threatens to upend the duopoly.  Like Austin, Djokovic has flirted with the top but after 3 years has not assumed convincingly the yearend #1 mantle.

But there’s a fourth Andy Murray-like element in the mix.  In 1980-81 that was Hana Mandlikova – like Murray who is actually slightly older than Djokovic despite breaking through a whisker later, Mandlikova was slightly Austin’s senior.  She gave notice at the 1980 US Open, losing the final to Evert.  Then for the first time in several years, the Australian Open boasted a draw with many of the top women’s players.  Mandlikova won over a field containing major champions Navratilova, Goolagong, Barker, Ruzici, and Jausovec.  She then proceeded to cement her claim as a major contender for the top by claiming the French title, taking out Evert in the SF.

Mandlikova seemed destined for a long career at the top when, still only 19, she featured in the Wimbledon final, her fourth consecutive major final.  However, she was thrashed by Evert 62 62 in what may have been a career-deflating loss.

Austin again claimed the US crown, and the 1981 Australian, then played at the end of the year, became a showdown of deservedly major proportion – featuring a draw that may have been its strongest ever to that point.  Navratilova emerged victorious from the final over Evert, and thus 1981 featured Mandlikova, Evert, Austin, and Navratilova as its slam winners.  All had claims to dominance and thus paradoxically, parity existed at the top.  Evert was judged by most lists and the computer to be #1, but the fans and sportswriters were absolutely salivating at what the future might hold.

To this point Evert held 11 major titles, Navratilova 3, and Austin and Mandlikova each had 2.  The future was unknown and anything seemed possible.  1982 seemed the year of ultimate promise.

Just when it seemed it couldn’t get any more crowded at the top, or interesting, along came 16 year-old Andrea Jaeger – 3 years junior to the still teen-age Austin.  Hopefully she is not paralleled by Juan Martin Del Potro in our analogy to the men’s game because she flamed out due to injury after 3 or 4 years and remains one of the great what-ifs of tennis.

Jaeger made waves by making the French semis in 1981 and then really gave notice by making the 1982 French final – losing to Navratilova.  The following year, 1983, she would make the Wimbledon final and her future status as a multiple grand slam champion seemed all but guaranteed.  But other forces were at work.

In 1982 Navratilova went on imitate Mandlikova the year before and made the Wimbledon final – her fourth consecutive major final.  She came in with an identical loss at the US Open followed by wins at the Australian and French.  And like Mandlikova she faced Evert in the final.  But the outcome was very different.
               Mandlikova         Navratilova
               1980-81               1981-82              
US          runner up             runner up
AUS        champion            champion
FRE        champion            champion
WIM      f vs Evert             f vs Evert

Although it was a 3-set match, Navratilova won her sets 1 and 2.  Even though the next major, the US Open, featured an Evert win over Mandlikova, it was after Martina’s 1982 Wimbledon win that tennis history seemed to have taken a new course.  Navratilova would go on to utterly dominate the next 4 years and win 6 consecutive Wimbledons.  It was the mid-80’s, from 1983-86 when Evert was her constant and seemingly only foil, that really gave the Chris-Martina years there memorableness, and seeming interminability.  It was a period of excellence, especially for Navratilova, though it was interrupted occasionally, like by that 1986 US Open win by Mandlikova.  But this was a bruised, though defiant Mandlikova, who never seemed to have fulfilled her early promise.  But I wonder if things might have been different if it had been Mandlikova instead of Navratilova who had won that 4^th consecutive major final, that critical Wimbledon, against Evert?  It’s interesting to speculate about a Mandlikova-dominated 80’s, but part of me knows that history really is inevitable – that Navratilova was more than ready for all that she went on to prove.

Austin and Jaeger never reached the heights they seemed destined for in 1982, both scuttled by injury, and perhaps, and I speculate, the sheer indomitability that Navratilova-Evert became.  It took another titan to unseat the mighty Navratilova – the sheer speed and talent manifested by Steffi Graf.

So if my parallel to 2011 holds – and I see little likelihood, to be honest – Nadal(/Navratilova) won’t be unseated by Djokovic(/Austin) or Del Potro(/Jaeger).  Murray(/Mandlikova) will hang around, surface to grab the odd title, but never really threaten the top the way Djokovic(/Austin) might have done.  Federer(/Evert) will remain the chief whipping boy for the reigning #1, until some new undiscovered talent comes along.  But who will it be?  Who will play the role of Steffi Graf and finally oust the great venerable champion Nadal in 2014 or 15?  Is it Tomic, or Ranoic, or Dimitrov?  Or more likely, it’s someone who we haven’t noticed yet, some young phenom labouring in junior obscurity.  Who will it be?  Can history repeat itself?