Aus Open 2013 - Men

Australian Open 2013 – Men’s Preview

 

The big question awaiting the draw was which side #3 Andy Murray would land in.  It’s probably some sort of cosmic justice that the #1 seed Djokovic gets the (apparently) easier draw with #4 Ferrer on his side.  But Roger Federer at #2 certainly has his work cut out for him.  The draw feels unbalanced without Nadal.

Top Quarter

Djokovic has lost only one match since the US Open 5 months ago – to Sam Querrey at the Paris 1000.  He owned the fall.  Can he continue that down under?  His draw does not look overly challenging – for him.  Querrey (20) or Wawrinka (15) could hit hot streaks and cause trouble in the 4^th round, but the odds are certainly with Novak.

Berdych (5) in the quarters could be more problematic.  But with a head to head of 11-1 in favour of Djokovic, there would seem little obstacle between a healthy Novak and the semis

First-rounder to watch Goffin vs. Verdasco (22)

Djokovic d. Berdych

Second Quarter

Ferrer (4) is sailing through the Sydney draw and seems to have recovered from his surprising beat-down at the hands of Davydenko last week.  Ferrer’s draw does not appear very difficult at first glance, but it could get tricky.  Former finalist Baghdatis (28) lurks as a potential 3^rd rounder and the mercurial Nishikori (16) in the 4^th could be a handful for anyone.  But there are questions about Nishikori’s knee that may make a repeat of last year’s QF showing doubtful.

The other side is brimming with possible talent yet unproved, in the persons of Jerzy Janowicz (24) and Grigor Dimitrov.  Janowicz blasted through 5 top 20 players at Paris 1000 before succumbing to Ferrer in the final.  Dimitrov has been gradually climbing the rankings and in making the final last week in Brisbane looked to be finally fulfilling the abundant promise of his beautiful strokes.  Whether they will go down easily or show themselves players of the highest calibre is equally speculative.

A more reliable performer is Tipsarevic (8), who is proving to be a solid choice at most tournaments, though winning a slam would be a significant stretch.  Overall, it is a favourable draw for Ferrer.

Ferrer d. Tipsarevic

Third Quarter

This is the quarter Andy Murray (3) finds himself in, and it appears to be a fairly standard quarter for the vintage, except possibly for its second ranking denizen, Juan Martin Del Potro (6).  There are few potential foils if both men are on form.  Cilic (12) could be an exhausting 4^th rounder for Delpo, but at this stage Gilles Simon (14) is less likely to be so for Murray.

Monfils and Dolgopolov play what should be a fascinating first rounder with galaxy-exploding talent – so little of it realized.  They could unseat Murray, but more likely two of the greatest hard court players in the current game will meet with the chance to produce a blockbuster quarterfinal if the seeds hold and Murray faces Del Potro.

Their H2H is relatively thin:  only 6 matches, with Murray a decided favourite at 5-1.  However, the last match was in 2009, so really anything seems possible.  I rate Murray at #2 and Del Potro at #3 in the last half year for hard court form, just behind Djokovic and ahead of Federer, so it’s a shame that they are in the same quarter.  Better viewing for us!

Both are one-time slam winners at the US Open[1], but Murray has been in 5 slam finals so I rate him the favourite – although not by much.  It could go either way, but I feel Del Potro has not quite found the confident wave he was riding at the end of 2009.  Maybe this tournament will see him reach critical mass.

Murray d. Del Potro

Bottom Quarter

Roger Federer (2) probably has the most difficult quarter of the top seeds – except for dodging Del Potro as a potential QF opponent.  Former world #3, Davydenko could come up in 2R, and the 3^rd could bring either last year’s ATP Newcomer of the Year, Martin Klizan (27), or the massively talented (and petulant) Bernard Tomic.  The tennis world awaits to see if Tomic is really top 5 material, or better.

Nadal-beater Lukas Rosol could run into Milos Raonic (13) in round 2, and either could bomb Federer in the 4^th round.  Raonic made his breakout 2 years ago at this tournament.  It promised big things to come, but as time passes, it looks more like he is reaching his Isner-like ceiling.

The other side houses the unpredictably dangerous Tommy Haas (19), although he could have his hands full in round 3 with a re-ascending Richard Gasquet (9).  Gasquet seemed to come out of nowhere to rejoin the top 10 at the end of last year.  He showed he means business by winning last week in Doha, defusing a red hot Davydenko.

Gasquet could meet fellow Frenchman Tsonga (7) in round 4.  Tsonga’s massive talent took him to the final here in 2008, but his withdrawal last week betells possible problems in a best-of-5 event in extreme heat.  Gasquet’s talent is possibly as significant but has not been able to filter through his psychology/personality with the same clarity as Tsonga’s.  Victory will court whoever hits a hot streak, and if they’re both on, it could become extremely entertaining for viewers.  Gasquet’s recent form has been better so I foolishly cast my vote with him.  Either could cause major problems for Federer, even though Federer is a far more reliable talent.

Federer d. Gasquet

Semis

A predictable prediction of the top 4 seeds is remarkable only in that the Spaniard is Ferrer and not Nadal.  Ferrer has given Djokovic fits on clay courts, but at the site of 3 slam victories for Djokovic, and with his prodigious hard court record it’s difficult not to side with the 2-time defending champ.

Djokovic d. Ferrer

I will be far less glib in assessing a Murray vs. Federer semi.  The H2H stands at 10-9 for Murray.  On hard they are 9-8 for Murray.  At slam events they are 3-0 for Federer but at the Olympics 1-0 for Murray.  Their only Australian Open meeting was in the 2010 final, won in straight sets by Federer.

But Murray is a different player now.  His hard court form has been solid over the last 6 months, and he has shown real mettle in the biggest events.  Most importantly, he seems to have self-belief now.  His legs are younger and he should be just a little more resilient and fit than Federer if they get into long matches or extreme heat.

Underestimating Roger Federer is always dangerous.  He is still capable of utterly sublime tennis, but doubtless it comes harder than it did 5 years ago.

Murray d. Federer

Final

The bookies are favouring Djokovic and Murray 1 and 2 in their lists, giving the top seed the edge.  He seems the best hard court player in the world at the moment.  He leads Murray 10-7 in the head to head, although this narrows to 8-6 when only hard courts are counted.  Their last meeting was 7-5 in the deciding 3^rd set at the World Tour Finals for Djokovic.

Although most of the stats are pointing to a slight advantage for Djokovic, Murray’s mental toughness in the last 3 big events, (Wimbledon, Olympics, US Open) could tip the balance.  But Djokovic seems to have more weapons.  Both play excellent defense.  The edge on forehand and serve probably go to Novak.  This may be Djokovic’s most successful event on the tour.  Can Murray take it away from him?

Djokovic d. Murray

Bookies

Average of all bookies reporting at bookies.com on 11 Jan 2013.

Rank	Player	Odds
1	Djokovic, N	2.01
2	Murray, A	3.56
3	Federer, R	5.61
4	Del Potro, JM	16.00
5	Ferrer, D	27.47
6	Tsonga, JW	40.73
7	Berdych, T	44.80
8	Tomic, B	60.87
9	Raonic, M	62.53
10	Janowicz, J	111.43
11	Dimitrov, G	118.31
12	Davydenko, N	130.64
13	Tipsarevic, J	142.27
14	Nishikori, K	143.42
15	Cilic, M	152.93
16	Gasquet, R	161.27
17	Dolgopolov, A	178.07
18	Baghdatis, M	188.43
19	Monfils, G	216.27
20	Wawrinka, S	227.93
21	Nalbandian, D	251.00
22	Querrey, S	263.40
23	Almagro, N	276.64
24	Verdasco, F	287.36

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[1] The US Open has had 5 different winners in the last 5 years – unusual for the Federer-Nadal era.  Roland Garros saw 5 different winners ending in 2005 with Nadal’s first victory, and the US Open had 7 different consecutive winners until Federer’s second title in 2005.