Australian Open 2013 – Women’s Preview
Can Serena Williams be stopped? Top seed Victoria Azarenka may have a
cakewalk to the semis, but things look to get significantly more frightening
there with Serena in her half. Certainly
second-seeded Sharapova will quake less to face Agnieszka Radwanska (4) as a
potential semi opponent, but she may not escape unscathed from Williams wrath –
Venus lurks as a possible 3rd round opponent. But we’re getting ahead of ourselves.
Top Quarter
Azarenka (1) looms large in her half of the section. Nearby seeds Urszula Radwanska (31), Varvara
Lepchenko (21), and Roberta Vinci (16) are not particularly awe-inspiring,
although Vinci has had some fine results of late from her well-crafted, if
limited, game.
The other side is a little more interesting with Wozniacki seeded
10, a rededicated (?) Pavlyuchenkova (24), and Sara Errani (7). Wozniacki is not nearly the competitor she
was a few years ago, but her latent talent should not be brushed aside too
easily. Her 3R could bring up
Pavlyuchenkova who seems capable of anything, but has not shown the sort of
resolve that has carried a, say, Azarenka to lasting success. Errani is the little engine that could, and
made QF here last year and SF at the US Open.
I just don’t see the horsepower in her game to remove Azarenka.
Azarenka d. Errani
Second Quarter
Petra Kvitova (8) should be a scary name in this
quarter. Just a year ago she was within
a weekend of the #1 ranking. She did not
win a slam in 2012 but performed well enough to stay in the top 10. 2013 has been particularly unkind,
besmirching her with an oh-and-two record.
If somehow she could find a vein of consistency and start tempering her
big strokes with some duller ones, she could still prove a monumental challenge
for even the mighty Serena. But I hold
out no hope for that in this outing.
Kvitova’s road is made no easier by Schiavone in 1R, Robson
in 2R, and Sloane Stephens (29) in R3.
Also lurking is Petrova (12), whose big game has never really seemed to
find a home at the slams. Stephens is an
exciting young player who could rise very high this year. Top 10 seems within reach, maybe even top
5. She kept Serena’s hands full in
Brisbane last week – providing by far her toughest match. But if Williams is on-song at all, even a
little out of tune perhaps, she should sweep all before her.
SWilliams d. Stephens
Third Quarter
This is the most stimulating quarter from a predictive view
but is probably least likely to produce an eventual champion. Seeded #4, ARadwanska parallels the position
occupied by Ferrer on the men’s side although she is perhaps less of a lock to
make the semis than he. Mona Barthel
(32), Jankovic (22), and Ivanovic (13) are the nearest seeds, and although none
will be favoured to beat Radwanska, they all have the talent to do so – although
perhaps not in 2013. If this were 2008,
I’d say the odds were with the Serbians, and in a few years, Barthel may have
her spot in the sun.
The other half is where it gets really interesting. Stosur (9), Goerges (18), and Li (6) have big
game potential. Stosur has definitely
struggled at her home slam, but she has to turn it around sometime, right?? This may not be the year. Her draw is murderous. 2010 semi-finalist Zheng in 2R, Goerges (18)
in 3R, Li (6) in the 4th, ARad (4) in the quarters, and then likely
Sharapova, followed by Serena. Not
possible for Stosur, I say.
Li (6) has been in exceptional form this year, winning her
first tournament and then going down to Radwanska in Sydney. She’s done well in Melbourne in the past,
finalist in 2011, SF in 2010. She
grooves her flat strokes on the neutral court.
I say she gets revenge for this week.
Li d ARadwanska
Fourth Quarter
This quarter is bracketed by Angelique Kerber (5) and
Sharapova (2), and finds Bartoli (11) and Dominika Cibulkova (15) in its
middle. Cibulkova has been on a tear in
Sydney, dispensing with 3 of the top 5 seeds there, Kvitova, Kerber, and
Errani, to make the final. She will
probably be too much to handle for 16-year old sensation Ashleigh Barty in the
first round, although it is a match I will follow with interest.
Venus Williams makes a tantalizing addition to the quarter
as the 25 seed. She could face Sharapova
in round 3. The two have split their
matches 4-3 in favour of Maria. Based on
recent form the edge has to go to Sharapova, but I think Venus probably has
more talent. Her age is probably less of
a liability than her comeback from illness.
Venus will always be capable of great things and a showdown could go
either way, but I think the odds are with Sharapova and the crisper tennis she
has been playing recently.
Cibulkova could definitely take out Sharapova, but again the
odds have to be with Sharapova.
Kerber has proven to be a consistent performer on the WTA
tour and will likely earn her #5 seeding.
17-year old Madison Keys is not settled into the WTA hierarchy and could
upset the apple cart in 3R. Overall
Kerber’s consistency should prevail.
Until she gets in with the really big girls.
Sharapova d Kerber
Semis
In the high unlikelihood that my predictions hold, we could
have two very fascinating semis.
Azarenka vs Serena is for bragging rights for queen diva – numero
uno. Yes Serena has won everything in
sight since July and her match record is 1000-2 over that period (or whatever),
but what shocked me was how close Azarenka made it in the US final. 7-5 in the 3rd?? Wow!
Serena is not a total lock for this match, even if she is
favoured. The number one ranking is on
the line. Unless Azarenka wins the AO
title, she will almost certainly lose the #1 ranking (Sharapova and Serena
would both have to lose very early to prevent that). So this will be a pressure-filled match. And the pressure is greater for Serena, I
think. If Azarenka loses, she can lick
her wounds and try again next time. But
if Serena loses, then suddenly Azarenka looks like ‘the real’ and legitimate
#1. The changing of the guard will clang
loudly across the tennis landscape.
Serena admitted to nerves in the Wimbledon and USO
finals. Can she master them, or will she
revisit her 2011-USO-final-loss-to-Stosur meltdown?
SWilliams d Azarenka
The other semi could pit the last two Roland Garros
champions. Sharapova has by far the more
consistent record over the last 6 months.
Their head to head is 8-4 for Sharapova.
Maria won their first 5 meetings, Li the next 4, and Maria the last
3. On hard courts they are 5-1 for
Sharapova. The signs all point to
Sharapova, but Li is a streaky and talented player. If she’s connecting, Li could blast Sharapova
off the court. New coach Carlos
Rodriguez seems to be pushing the right buttons and another trip to a slam
title-round is well within Li’s wheelhouse.
Overall, I think I’ll pick Sharapova’s consistency.
Sharapova d Li
Final
I really doubt that anyone can stand in the way of a
determined Serena. Azarenka probably has
the best chance. Sharapova’s recent
outings against Serena have not looked promising for Maria.
SWilliams d Sharapova
Bookies
Average of all bookies reporting at bookies.com on 11 Jan
2013.
|
Rank
|
Player
|
Odds
|
|
1
|
Williams, S
|
1.87
|
|
2
|
Azarenka, V
|
4.52
|
|
3
|
Sharapova, M
|
8.93
|
|
4
|
Li, N
|
19.86
|
|
5
|
Radwanska, A
|
20.50
|
|
6
|
Kvitova, P
|
21.71
|
|
7
|
Kerber, A
|
26.57
|
|
8
|
Stosur, S
|
33.79
|
|
9
|
Wozniacki, C
|
51.36
|
|
10
|
Williams, V
|
53.14
|
|
11
|
Ivanovic, A
|
75.21
|
|
12
|
Pavlyuchenkova, A
|
79.93
|
|
13
|
Petkovic, A
|
86.00
|
|
14
|
Lisicki, S
|
88.57
|
|
15
|
Stephens, S
|
88.73
|
|
16
|
Bartoli, M
|
92.21
|
|
17
|
Errani, S
|
94.46
|
|
18
|
Kanepi, K
|
95.00
|
|
19
|
Robson, L
|
102.15
|
|
20
|
Cibulkova, D
|
103.91
|
|
21
|
Barthel, M
|
107.36
|
|
22
|
Petrova, N
|
144.85
|
|
23
|
Kirilenko, M
|
145.93
|
|
24
|
Kuznetsova, S
|
150.91
|
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