State of the Union - 17 Jul 2012

State of the Union – 17 Jul 2012

 

We’re just over half way through the calendar year, but about 2/3 of the way through the tennis year, and ¾ of the way through the grand slam season.  Looking ahead we have the summer swing punctuated by the Olympics and US Open, and then the end of year Asia/indoor swing culminating at the yearend championships. 

Can we take any meaning from what has happened so far this year and how might things look by yearend?

Men’s Tennis

Perhaps the most surprising thing is that there is no clear #1 for the year emerging yet.  The three grand slams have been split among the top 3 with Novak Djokovic taking the Australian title, Rafael Nadal the French, and Roger Federer Wimbledon.  At the end of last year I predicted that the honours would be split almost equally among the top 4 this year.  If Andy Murray can win the US Open I will have been right.  But is that likely?

What has really surprised me is the re-emergence of Federer as #1.  It’s a very narrow gap to #2, but for 4 weeks at least, Federer will be #1.  I have been a Federer fan for years, but my dispassionate side inclined me to believe that on balance his best was behind him and the week in, week out consistency necessary for a computer #1 was no longer in his wheelhouse.  I thought one more slam title could slip into his trophy case but I thought it would probably be on hardcourts.  But the depth of his talent is shining through the worn linings of old age (if 30 can be considered old), and it is a measure of how deep the golden vein lies that even now against younger and faster opponents he can still win. 

His dismantling of both Djokovic and Murray at Wimbledon were awe-inspiring.  His performance did not perhaps live up to the sustained brilliance he showed in, say, the Wimbledon final of 2004, but for set-long stretches or more the racquet was a magician’s wand in his hand.  Can he sustain it?

Is this re-invigorated Federer really wafting along amidst the clouds or has he risen to this height at the cost of much strain?  Federer’s long-stated goal has been the gold medal at the London Olympics.  Will he crash down to earth as an ordinary 31-year old when the Olympics are over? 

I suspect he might.  But I’ve been wrong many times.  The immediate danger for him will be over-confidence.  Riding the high of a Wimbledon victory he may turn up physically fit for battle in London, but mentally ahead of himself.  It would not be the first time a recent tennis champion has dipped.  But if anyone is equipped to avoid that pitfall, it is a man with 24 grand slam finals under his belt.

But assuming he can ride his wave of recent form through the Olympics, when he has finally checked off an Olympic gold singles medal as that one last tiny hole in his tennis resume (or is it a Davis Cup victory for his country?), will Federer then rest and collapse into mortal-hood as so many have done before him?  Or will he feel the need to keep driving forward through his 30’s and 40’s, relentlessly pursuing more trophies, more tennis perfection, more validation the way Jimmy Connors did, or Pancho Gonzales, or Ken Rosewall?[1]  Or perhaps his talent is just so vast that he will continue at the top long past the age at which others were outcompeted?  I’m not sure of the answers.  On the one hand it would surprise no one if Federer had a let down by the US Open, but continued to play well in the fall indoor season – long a stronghold of his.  On the other, he could ride his current wave right through the US Open.

The Olympics will be interesting.  Federer will be primed for his favourite surface, but Nadal may have some something to say about who emerges as eventual champion.  Nadal cannot be pleased with his early exit at Wimbledon to Rosol.  Theoretically, his knees will have had time to heal.  In a tournament that’s perceived as ‘important’, I expect Nadal to bring his best.  Until this year he had made the last 5 consecutive Wimbledon finals he played, so he has to be regarded as a favourite on grass.  Yet intuitively, his loopy topspin game does not seem as well suited, (Bjorn Borg notwithstanding), for grass as does Federer’s.  But it is Nadal’s will and determination that may be his greatest asset, that will equalize any perceived advantage of Federer’s game.

Nor should Djokovic or Murray be counted out.  Clearly the Djokovic of 2012 is not the unstoppable force  of 2011.  But he is a former Wimbledon champion and in the prime years of his career.  Novak cannot be pleased to have lost to Federer in Wimbledon’s semi-finals.  Will Nole comeback fighting or has he been demoralized?  Certainly he has not seemed as mentally invincible in 2012, but all the pieces of his game are still there, the backhand, the return of serve, the flexibility, and most importantly, perhaps, the speed.  Barring some unexplainable mental block, Djokovic must be regarded as a near equal in probability to Federer and Nadal to access the Olympic title.

Murray presents more difficulty to analyze.  His career record to date would suggest that he his perhaps a smidgeon less talented than the top three.  He has just come within inches of the Wimbledon summit.  What Herculean energy did he expend to get there?  Can he rise to another challenge in front of the home crowd so soon after a demoralizing loss to a wizened master of the game?

My initial reaction is that it is too big an ask for Murray.  But the niggling doubt in my mind is the force of the crowd.  Murray showed his vulnerability, his openness to encouragement from the throng in his moving Wimbledon defeat speech.  Home town pressure does not seem a factor, instead home town support does.  Will the crowd carry Murray to victory at the top of the mountain this time?  I have my doubts, but it could be close.

Overall I’m predicting a Federer over Djokovic Olympic final.  The #1 ranking could also be up for grabs.  If Federer or Djokovic win, they will bat the ranking back and forth.  Djokovic has more points to defend from the hardcourt 1000’s in August, so if he doesn’t do well at them, Federer could consolidate on top. 

Then comes the US Open and the big prize, in addition to the very significant slam title, will be #1 bragging rights for the year.  If any of Nadal, Djokovic, or Federer can claim two GS titles this year, most fans will regard him as #1.  Whether or not the computer agrees remains to be seen.  

But if someone else should snag the USO, like Murray, Tsonga, Berdych, or Del Potro, (to name the prime suspects), the question of #1 will be wide open.  It may come down to who wins the Olympics or year-end championships (YEC).  And the odds on USO are hardly clear.  The US title is in some ways the big equalizer for the current top 4. 

Of the major surfaces, hard courts have presented Nadal with his biggest challenges.  He’s been to 7 major clay finals, 5 on grass, but only 2 on hardcourts (although he won them both).  On the other hand he’s probably best of the big 4 outdoors.  Federer and Murray have a disproportionate number of their wins indoors, and the speedy controlled conditions also favour Djokovic’s game.  So while the hard courts may hurt Nadal a little, the wild unpredictable outdoor conditions typical of New York in September put him back in the conversation.

Federer obviously doesn’t mind Flushing Meadows, as 5 consecutive victories will attest.  But he hasn’t been to a final there since 2009 after being 2 points from the championship against Del Potro.  Does the hardcourt no longer suit his aged game?

Djokovic too likes Queens, having been to 3 USO finals, including last year’s superlative win.  The defending champion has the chance to close off the grand slam season with a win that would largely silence the criticism that he has slipped significantly this year.  Hard court is probably his strongest surface and the end of summer may be his most historically productive time.

Murray may have a tougher time of it this year.  Even though he’s said he thinks the US title is his best shot at slam glory, the deflation of losing the Wimbledon final may not have worn off by the time September rolls around.  Murray has typically needed 4 to 6 months to regain his best form after previous slam final losses.  But he did make a breakthrough this year.  He took a set in the final.  It may be just enough progress to buoy him to greater heights.

Del Potro, Berdych, Tsonga, and even Ferrer may have legitimate chances at the title as well. 
All except Ferrer hit big enough to seriously damage the best, and Ferrer can threaten anyone who’s having a bad day with his solid and intelligent play. But the stars would have to align.  It’s unlikely any of this group would take out more than one of the big 4 in a given tournament – although it has happened in the past.  Chances are the winner would have to take out three of the top 4.  A very big ask.

In the end, I think Federer will be over-satisfied after his Wimbledon victory, Murray will still be deflated, and Nadal will continue to struggle on his least favourite surface – especially if there are any questions about his health/knees.  So that leaves Djokovic.  To me he looks the most likely to take the title and with it the yearend #1 ranking.

After that... the yearend swing.  Federer usually shines indoors and adding a 7^th YEC to his collection would not surprise me.  Will it be enough to propel him to yearend computer #1.  Possibly, depends on the Olympics.  It will be close, but first across the finish line... my prediction... will be, in a repeat of last year, Djokovic.

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[1] Gonzales and Rosewall never won Wimbledon and yet are two of the greatest to ever play the game, ranking as yearend professional #1 multiple times each.  The structure of amateur vs professional tennis in the 1930’s to 60’s meant that many top players only played the grand slam events 2 or 3 times in their careers.  Rosewall was still making grand slam finals at age 39 (after the grand slams were reopened to professionals in 1968) and Gonzales was taking down #1 players in his late forties.