US Open 2012 – Women (23 August 2012)
Can someone, ANYONE, consolidate the #1 ranking on the WTA
tour? The last seven grand slam
tournaments have seen seven different winners.[1] No one seems able to hold on to a lead at the
top. The last time there was a strong
yearend #1 atop the computer was probably 2009, when Serena Williams occupied
the spot on the strength of two slam titles – at Melbourne and Wimbledon.
Since then it has been chaos. The yearend #1 ranking on the computer was
held by Caroline Wozniacki for 2010 and 2011.
For 2010, I and many others felt Serena was the “real #1” (in Serena’s
inimitable words) since she had won the Australian and Wimbledon that year,
even though she didn’t play the last half of the year due to a foot
injury. Others felt half a year’s play
just didn’t cut it and thought Clijsters should be #1 because of her US Open
title followed by the year end championships (YEC) title in 2010. For 2011, Petra Kvitova was named year end #1
by both the WTA and the International Tennis Federation (ITF), probably
deservedly for her Wimbledon and YEC victories, and 4 other titles. However Kvitova has looked weak this year,
mustering only one title (Montreal) and dropping as low as #6 on the computer.
This year, Azarenka has held the #1 spot for most of the
year so far, on the back of her slam win at the Australian and a scintillating
26 match win streak to start the year.
Since then she’s looked more pedestrian, but did manage SF at Wimbledon
and bronze at the Olympics. Coming in to
the US Open she is ranked second by the bookies, but considerably back of
Serena Williams. (bookies.com 21 Aug)
|
rank
|
player
|
average
odds
|
|
1
|
Williams, S
|
2.09
|
|
2
|
Azarenka, V
|
6.98
|
|
3
|
Sharapova, M
|
7.12
|
|
4
|
Kvitova, P
|
10.61
|
|
5
|
Li, N
|
16.00
|
|
6
|
Kerber, A
|
20.09
|
|
7
|
Clijsters, K
|
24.95
|
|
8
|
Stosur, S
|
25.95
|
|
9
|
Radwanska, A
|
26.14
|
|
10
|
Williams, V
|
32.77
|
|
11
|
Wozniacki, C
|
47.82
|
|
12
|
Lisicki, S
|
50.45
|
|
13
|
Bartoli, M
|
97.86
|
|
14
|
Barthel, M
|
116.31
|
|
15
|
Ivanovic, A
|
126.41
|
|
16
|
Goerges, J
|
127.55
|
|
17
|
Paszek, T
|
137.00
|
Not surprisingly perhaps, the last 7 slam titlists are among
the top 8 in the bookies rankings. The
lone interloper is Angelique Kerber who proved that her SF showing at the US
Open last year was no fluke by making the semis at Wimbledon this year. She also has the most match wins for the
year. She has a reasonable shot to
repeat her semi finish at USO, in my estimation, but not to go beyond
that. There is too much talent that
could get in the way. However, given the
recent unpredictability of women’s events a title run is not absolutely
impossible.
Serena is currently ranked #4 on the computer, but her wins
at Wimbledon and the Olympics mean that she is looking like the world’s
dominant player right now. And she
didn’t just win the Olympics – she decimated the field, losing just 17 games
total against 6 opponents. Her final
round thrashing of Maria Sharapova 60 61 was awe-inspiring.
She has by far the best match winning percentage of the year
at 92.0% (46-4). She has finally found
her form after the lengthy layoffs of 2010-11.
Even at the advancing age of 30 (she turns 31 in Sep) she seems a class
above the rest of the field. Here are
2012 statistics for the top players.
|
Player
|
W
|
L
|
%
|
Titles
|
|
Williams, S
|
46
|
4
|
0.920
|
5
|
|
Azarenka, V
|
48
|
7
|
0.873
|
4
|
|
Sharapova, M
|
44
|
7
|
0.863
|
3
|
|
Clijsters, K
|
19
|
5
|
0.792
|
0
|
|
Radwanska, A
|
48
|
13
|
0.787
|
3
|
|
Kerber, A
|
53
|
16
|
0.768
|
2
|
|
Kvitova, P
|
37
|
12
|
0.755
|
1
|
|
Li, N
|
34
|
12
|
0.739
|
1
|
|
Williams, V
|
18
|
8
|
0.692
|
0
|
|
Stosur, S
|
31
|
17
|
0.646
|
0
|
|
Wozniacki, C
|
29
|
16
|
0.644
|
0
|
|
Lisicki, S
|
16
|
16
|
0.500
|
0
|
Serena has done extremely well on grass this year. Will she be able to translate that to winning
on hard courts? A title at Stanford on
hard between her Wimbledon and Olympic titles would seem to say yes. But she was less stellar in Cincinnati, going
down to Kerber 64 64. But all things
considered, Serena still seems the one to beat.
She has no real weaknesses. The
serve, forehand, backhand, and volley are all excellent. She’s very quick. And she’s mentally ferocious.
Her one shortfall may be the tendency to let her anger get
out of control when things don’t go her way.
Mostly she has used it to positive effect to get out of tight, seemingly
impossible situations. But her outbursts
in matches against Clijsters at USO 2009 and against Stosur in last year’s
final were probably her undoing. If she
can play with the passionate poise (always a tricky balance) she has shown this
summer, it will take a massive effort to beat her.
Even if she does win, mathematically, Serena cannot get the
#1 computer ranking for sometime after the Open. The best she can do immediately is #3 and
that requires Sharapova to progress no further than the 4th round.
Sharapova has had a strong year, completing the career grand
slam by taking the French title in June.
She also finished runner up at the Australian and at the Olympics. If she were to snag another USO title, she
would probably be generally regarded as #1 for the year. To grab top spot on the computer, she will
need to win the title and hope that Azarenka does not pass the quarters.[2] Her form at the Olympics was promising. The big question will be Serena. Since beating her twice in 2004 (Wim, YEC),
Sharapova has lost 8 consecutive matches to Serena. In fact, in the last 3 matches Sharapova has
managed a total of only 9 games. If she
can somehow avoid Serena, she may be able to claim her 5th slam
singles title.
Also gunning for her 5th slam title will be Kim
Clijsters. The US Open has got to be one
of Clijsters’ favourite tournaments. The
last time she lost there was in 2003 and the last time she played and didn’t
make the final was in 2002. She’s
currently on a 21-match win streak at the Open, claiming titles the last 3
times she’s played it – 2005, 2009, 2010.
Can she do it again?
It would seem unlikely. She
hasn’t won a tournament all year and has been battling injury. Her form has not looked good. Mentally I don’t expect her to be in the
eager, open-minded state that accompanied her 2009 win. Rather she will be playing knowing this is
the end. That may relieve some pressure,
but it may also take away some of the inner drive necessary to triumph. Farewell tours for tennis players have rarely
ended in victory. Pete Sampras is the
only player I can remember whose last tournament was a victory – the 2002 US
Open – and he did not tell people it was going to be his last match.
Still this IS the US Open and Kim Clijsters. I’m not willing to rule out a victory – but
it would be a mild surprise.
Three other players worth mentioning are Kvitova, Li, and
Wozniacki. Kvitova has looked fairly
dismal all year, but she finally pulled together a tournament victory at
Montreal. Hard courts have not been her
strong suit, but she has a big enough game to hurt anyone. If she gets on a roll she could be
dangerous. Li too has looked shaky all
year, until making the final in Montreal and winning Cincinnati. She’s shown she can play lights out tennis
for two weeks. I don’t expect either Li
or Kvitova to win but they have to be in the conversation.
More than any other, perhaps, Wozniacki has struggled this
year. After finishing two years as #1 on
the computer, she has fallen as low as #9 and has not won a tournament all
year. North American hard courts have
typically been her strong suit and she has been in at least the semis of the
Open the last 3 years. I have my doubts
she will extend that streak this year.
Turning now to the draws.
Top Quarter (seedings in parentheses)
This is a murderous quarter loaded with dangerous players,
headlined by the #1 seed, Azarenka. The
dangerous Jie Zheng (28) is a potential 3R opponent for Azarenka and the 4th
round could bring up Julia Goerges (18) or Sabine Lisicki (16). Lisicki, especially, has the sort of
big-hitting game that can beat anyone on a given day. Neither Azarenka nor Lisicki has been past 4R
at the Open.
The bottom half of the bracket contains titlists of the last
three US Opens Clijsters (23), Samantha Stosur (7), and for good measure
another slam titlist (French 2011), Li (9).
There should be plenty of fireworks and some great early round viewing.
Clijsters opens against Victoria Duval whose back story is
fascinating – still only 16 she was robbed at gunpoint as a child, escaped
Haiti, and her father narrowly survived crushing in a collapsed building. Next up for Clijsters could be the talented
Brit teenager, Laura Robson. Robson has
enough game to pull off an upset, although I would bet against it. The third round could bring up Li. Before the draws were announced, the bookies
had Li as a heavier favourite than Clijsters.
With Kim’s history at the Open and Li’s recent form, it could be a
titanic clash. The winner could well end
up facing the reigning titlist, Stosur, all by the 4th round.
Stosur has looked in a deep sophomore slump after her
career-defining win at USO 2011. So it
comes down to Clijsters or Li for me.
Clijsters has not played a hard court match since March in Miami. A little reluctantly I pick Li over Clijsters
in 3R, then Li over Stosur in 4R and Azarenka over Lisicki in 4R. To make the
semi, I pick in the QF match
Li d. Azarenka
Second quarter
After the epic density of talent in the first quarter, this
one looks wide open. Sharapova (3) is at
the top and Kvitova (5) is at the bottom.
The always fascinating Sesil Karatantcheva is a potential 2R opponent
for Sharapova. Karatantcheva burst onto
the tennis scene in 2003 and reached the 2005 Roland Garros QF at the tender
age of 15. Great things seemed ahead and
she rose to a career high rank of #35.
Then she tested positive for nandrolone in a routine drug test. She denied the charges, saying she was
pregnant. But the test results were
upheld and she was banned from the game for all of 2006 and 2007.
She shares a birthday with Roger Federer and has just turned
23, but she has never found the scintillating form that carried her to success
so young. But she has been improving
gradually of late and making the main draws of slams with more frequency. If she makes it to the second round, I expect
Sharapova to handle her easily.
Marion Bartoli (11), Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (17), and
Yanina Wickmayer (25) are in Kvitova’s section.
Any of them could pull an upset but the odds favour Kvitova.
If Kvitova is on she could blitz Sharapova the way she did
in the Wimbledon final of 2011, however, Sharapova has had the much more
consistent year and has a better history on hardcourts.
Sharapova d. Kvitova
Third Quarter
The name looming large in this quarter is at the bottom of
the bracket and belongs to Serena Williams (4).
If her form approaches what she’s shown so far this summer, the rest of
the draw should be cannon fodder as she races to the quarters.
The most interesting names in the top half are Wozniacki
(8), Ivanovic (12), and Sloane Stephens.
Ivanovic has been slowly reviving.
After reaching #1 and claiming the French title in 2008, she fell
precipitously and has been fighting to stay around 20-30 in the rankings. But her results have been improving and she
is now closer to the top 10 than at any point since her decline. She has big strokes and can be a game fighter
– until she suddenly goes off mid-match in an apparent collapse of
self-confidence. Those collapses have
been growing rarer. She could have an
exciting tussle with Wozniacki, who may be in a decline of her own.
This US Open could be a watershed moment for Caroline. If she can turn in another good result, as
she has so many times before at the USO, it could revive her. If she loses early, she flirts with exiting
the top 10 and the demoralization that could bring. Nothing has really changed or is wrong with
her game. But she is vulnerable to
getting blown off the court by big-hitters against whom she can’t counterpunch
effectively.
The spoiler could be the vivacious Stephens. Just 19, she has shown big match credentials
in making 3R at USO last year, 3R at Wimbledon, and 4R at this year’s
French. She’s risen about 50 spots in
the rankings this year to #49. She will
have her hands full in her first match against Francesca Schiavone (22). If she makes it through she will likely not
survive against Ivanovic in 3R but it could be an entertaining match.
I doubt Ivanovic will be able to apply enough pressure
against the nerveless counterpunching of Wozniacki. But regardless, the winner
probably won’t have much of a chance against Serena.
SWilliams d. Wozniacki
Bottom Quarter
There’s a lot of excellent second string talent in this
quarter. Tamira Paszek (29) had 2W-13L
for the year until waking up in Eastbourne.
She then ripped off 9 straight matches to carry off the title and put
herself in the QF at Wimbledon. She
followed that up with QF in Montreal, and will make any opponent nervous.
Christina McHale (21) is also dangerous, making 3R at all
the slams this year. French Open
finalist Sara Errani (10) will face off
against 18-year old Garbine Muguruza in 1R.
There’s also the big-hitting Cibulkova (13) in this quarter, along with
rising Mona Barthel, and former #1 Jelena Jankovic. And the most dangerous floater of all may be
Venus Williams.
Venus could meet Kerber (6) in the second round. This is a shame, because both are in form to
make the quarters or better. I suspect
Venus has not quite regained the self-confidence to express the true depth of
her talent. Meanwhile, Kerber has been
on a tear this year, with a league-leading 53 match wins in singles and a
runner up in Cincinnati (to Li) last week.
Kerber narrowly beat Venus 76 76 at the Olympics, but that was on grass,
arguably Venus’ best surface. I give the
edge to Kerber.
In the bottom section of this quarter is #2 seed, Agnieszka
Radwanska. Radwanska has won 5 titles in
the last 12 months and is fresh from a runner-up showing at Wimbledon where she
pushed Serena to 3 sets. But she has not
thriven at the Open, losing in 2R the last 3 years, with best showings of 4R in
2007-08. Nevertheless, I expect her to
make the QF this year – Cibulkova could be a handful in 4R – but to lose the
battle to the in-form, surprise semi-finalist of last year, Angelique Kerber.
Kerber d. ARadwanska
Semis
It would be shocking if I’ve gotten all 4 semi-finalists
correct – given the current parity in the women’s game. I would expect a Li-Sharapova match up would be
determined by Li. Sharapova is a hard
hitter and she also very consistently plays the same game all the time. It works against most people. Against someone more creative she can get
blown away like she did in the Australian and Wimbledon finals of this
year. Li is that creative hard hitter
that can trouble Maria. Her strokes are
clean and compact. But they can also go
off. If Li is feeling it, she should
win. But Maria is good enough to put Li
under a lot of pressure. On an average
day for both I would pick Sharapova. The
head to head is 7-4 for Sharapova. The
odds favour her.
Sharapova d. Li
I would be tempted to pick Kerber for the final if she were
playing anyone else. She has really
impressed me this year with consistent play, wins over top players, and clutch
play at big events. But Serena will be
too much.
SWilliams d. Kerber
Final
Things could definitely go wrong for Serena, as last year’s
final against Stosur showed. Serena blew
a gasket and Stosur kept her nerve. I
think Serena will have learned from that. Sharapova is a great player who could probably
win this title against anyone except this particular nemesis.
SWilliams d. Sharapova
A win for Serena would definitely make her #1 for the year,
despite what the computer may say. I’d
bet most would agree with me.
[1]
Clijsters, Li, Kvitova, Stosur,
Azarenka, Sharapova, SWilliams. The last
time there were eight different winners in two years was 1938: Wynne, Krahwinkel,
Round, Lizana, Bundy, Mathieu, Wills, and Marble. There were actually nine
different consecutive winners starting at Wimbledon 1936 until Wimbledon
1938: Jacobs, Marble, Wynne, Krahwinkel,
Round, Lizana, Bundy, Mathieu, and Wills.
[2]
Sharapova could also gain #1 by finishing runner up, if Azarenka loses in 1R
and Radwanska does not pass the SF.
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