Wimbledon Women 2012
With finalist appearances in 3 of the last 4 slams and the
#1 ranking in hand, has Maria Sharapova become the best player in the
world? Can Serena Williams find her best
game for two weeks to hoist a 5th Wimbledon plate? Will Azarenka regain her scintillating form
of the year’s first 3 months? After a
shaky start to the year does Kvitova have what it takes to defend? And what of Venus Williams and Kim
Clijsters? There are enough storylines
in the women’s game to keep the writers of Dallas busy for years.
First Quarter
Maria Sharapova has been on a roll. Or maybe it’s a crescendo… she just keeps
getting stronger and stronger. It’s been
at least two years building but her progress is unmistakable. Despite her high risk game and shaky serve,
she’s looked like the consistency pony, the safe bet in a world of mercurial
Kvitovas, Azarenkas, Serenas, and Kims.
Awaiting her in the second round could be Tsvetana Pironkova
who has been to the QF or better here the last two years. Despite those chops, I expect Sharapova to
roll. The next highest seed in her
quarter is Kerber (8) who, although a semifinalist at USO last year and a
quarter showing at the French, still feels to me like an unproven quantity.
More dangerous perhaps is Kim Clijsters whose 4 slam titles
and stints at #1 speak of a deep and abiding talent. Clijsters faces Jankovic in the first round
whose grass chops include four R4 appearances at the big W and a runnerup
performance last week in Birmingham.
Clijsters has never won Wimbledon but she has two QF and two
SF finishes here. She won a couple
matches on grass in the tune-ups before withdrawing. Will her health hold up all the way through a
two week tournament? Based on
interviews, she may be treating Wimbledon as a warmup for the Olympics. Still if she had to choose, would she really
prefer not to have a Wimbledon title? If
Kim focuses, the sky is the limit of what she can accomplish. It could be an intriguing quarterfinal, and
really if Kim is on, she should win. But
there are too many things that could derail her.
Sharapova d. Clijsters
Second Quarter
Agnieszka Radwanska at 3 is the top seed here. She’s been to the quarters twice before and
this is undoubtedly her best year to date.
All the more shame therefore that she might meet Venus Williams in round
two. Venus has seemed close to showing
some of her former greatness this year but has always run into a tricky
opponent or had an off day. Could
Wimbledon, the site of 5 former triumphs, be the place she pulls it all
together and finds that winning form of old?
A test against the intelligent Aggie could be a severe one. The winner has a decent shot at the semis or
better.
Petrova or Oudin, both winners of grass court tune-ups could
prove challenging in round four for Aggie or Venus.
The other half of the quarter houses Li (11) and Stosur
(5). Stosur has been to the final 3
times – in doubles – but amazingly has only made it as far as the third round
in singles once. She could be due for a
breakthrough, or more likely grass singles just isn’t her thing.
Li could be a much more serious threat. Her W-L is 12-5 at Wimbledon, including two
QF appearances. Her short, flat strokes
seem tailor-made for grass. Picking
among Li, Venus, and Radwanska seems like a lot of guesswork. Li has the right game, Venus has history, and
Radwanska has the smarts.
Li d. Radwanska
Third Quarter
Former champs Serena Williams (6) and Petra Kvitova (4) loom
large here. They have the talent and
grass games to stage what could be a massive and fascinating quarterfinal. Serena can be fierce, hard-hitting, and
consistent, while Kvitova can hit winners from anywhere on the court, seemingly
without warning.
But both have been models of inconsistency. Last year Kvitova won 4 tournaments through
Wimbledon – this year zero. Serena
looked invincible on clay this year till her first round flame out at the
French. There would seem little to stand
in the way of either in this quarter.
Cibulkova could lurk for Kvitova in R4.
If they can show even half of what they are capable of on grass, Serena
and Petra should be able to set up a much anticipated block buster.
Based on youth and winner-hitting ability, I’d give the edge
to Kvitova. But long gone are the days
when Petra seemed poised to seize the reins of the game – a mere 5 months
ago. Kvitova has not found her game all
year and after a two year slam drought, Serena has to be hungrier.
Serena d. Kvitova
Fourth Round
If this were April, I’d probably be pencilling Azarenka (2)
straight into the semis or better. She
seemed invincible, streaking through four consecutive tournament victories, her
first slam title, and a seeming stranglehold on the #1 ranking. But now both Victoria and the next highest
seed here, Wozniacki (7) look far from shoo-ins. Was it really only 5 months ago that
Wozniacki was #1? It feels like a Safina
ago.
There are other strong contenders in this quarter who could
make the plot excellent reading – all talented and unpredictable. Kuznetsova (32 - really?!) has been to the QF
three times. Ana Ivanovic – “is the
comeback for real this time?” – has been good enough to make 14 seed and is a
former semi-finalist. Former finalist
Bartoli (9) showed she’s still a threat when she took out Serena last
year. But this isn’t 2007, and that’s
when all three of this trio had their last, best run.
There is no clear favourite in this basement quarter, but
someone has to win it. Maybe a real
underdog – like Tamira Paszek, Kristina Mladenovic, or Irina Falconi – or
(shades of 1999) Mirjana Lucic, then a semifinalist. Azarenka seems the obvious choice. A little bit of last year’s Wimbledon mojo,
some good memories from Jan-Mar and she could be well on her way.
Bartoli loves the grass and should be focussed – in her own
bouncy way. It looks like she believes
in herself, and that might just be enough.
Can she overcome Azarenka’s power and (help me) consistency?
Azarenka d. Bartoli
Semis
Li really could go all the way. But I have the feeling she’s had just enough satisfaction
in her now laudable career to want it a smidgeon less than Maria.
Sharapova d. Li
If, and it’s a big if, Serena makes it this far, she has
proven deadly in Wimbledon’s later stages.
I don’t think Azarenka has the firepower or the heart to deal with an
in-form Serena. But Serena is not
invincible, especially at this stage of her career – as last year’s US Open
final showed.
Serena d. Azarenka
Final
If the crystal ball has worked this far, it will be the
final most are hoping for. The two biggest
names in female tennis – perhaps in all of women’s sports – mano a mano in what
has been historically the biggest tournament in the game. Sharapova in the role, strangely, of
predictability and consistency, Serena starring as the erratic genius. But how erratic are 13 previous slam
titles? She’s one away from equalling
Sampras’ career haul.
Serena had created the perfect image to intimidate her
opponents – massive talent and indomitable will. But the cracks, and age, have been
showing. Her collapses in the USO final
last year and at this year’s French mean that she’s not quite as terrifying as
she once was. Nerves have shown. She’s human after all.
And Sharapova may be the least intimidate-able opponent on
the tour. She looks like she’s doing her
own thing on the court: blocking out her
surroundings in that little face-the-wall zen-breathe-pray thing she does
between points.
But against talent and flair, she can look wooden and
uninspired, as she did against Kvitova and Azarenka in her most recent slam
final losses. And Serena at Wimbledon –
we might as well use that to define inspiration.
Serena d. Sharapova
Bookies.com average on 24 Jun 2012
1
|
Sharapova, M
|
3.63
|
2
|
Williams, S
|
3.94
|
3
|
Kvitova, P
|
6.40
|
4
|
Azarenka, V
|
9.14
|
5
|
Clijsters, K
|
20.31
|
6
|
Williams, V
|
27.13
|
7
|
Li, N
|
29.13
|
8
|
Kerber, A
|
32.69
|
9
|
Stosur, S
|
37.94
|
10
|
Bartoli, M
|
40.81
|
11
|
Petkovic, A
|
41.00
|
12
|
Radwanska, A
|
42.38
|
13
|
Wozniacki, C
|
50.19
|
14
|
Lisicki, S
|
64.00
|
15
|
Kanepi, K
|
67.00
|
16
|
Ivanovic, A
|
95.38
|
17
|
Makarova, E
|
108.80
|
18
|
Cibulková, D
|
117.36
|
19
|
Kuznetsova, S
|
121.19
|
20
|
Pironkova, T
|
123.06
|
21
|
Petrova, N
|
136.27
|
22
|
Barthel, M
|
143.75
|
23
|
Paszek, T
|
151.93
|
24
|
Jankovic, J
|
157.44
|
25
|
Goerges, J
|
170.88
|
26
|
Errani, S
|
199.79
|
27
|
Schiavone, F
|
219.31
|
28
|
Zvonareva, V
|
224.31
|
29
|
Wickmayer, Y
|
227.13
|
30
|
Pavlyuchenkova, A
|
233.44
|
Expert Picks (espn.com mostly not reporting)
1.
Sharapova (5 picks) – Bodo, McGrogan
(tennis.com); Wertheim, Price, Nguyen (SI.com)
2.
SWilliams (4 picks) – Bowers (tennisserver.com);
Pagliaro, Tignor (tennis.com); Ubha (espn.com)
3.
Azarenka (1 pick) – Jenkins (SI.com)
3.
Clijsters (1 pick) – Graham (SI.com)
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