Wimbledon Women 2012

Wimbledon Women 2012

 

With finalist appearances in 3 of the last 4 slams and the #1 ranking in hand, has Maria Sharapova become the best player in the world?  Can Serena Williams find her best game for two weeks to hoist a 5^th Wimbledon plate?  Will Azarenka regain her scintillating form of the year’s first 3 months?  After a shaky start to the year does Kvitova have what it takes to defend?  And what of Venus Williams and Kim Clijsters?  There are enough storylines in the women’s game to keep the writers of Dallas busy for years.

 

First Quarter

Maria Sharapova has been on a roll.  Or maybe it’s a crescendo… she just keeps getting stronger and stronger.  It’s been at least two years building but her progress is unmistakable.  Despite her high risk game and shaky serve, she’s looked like the consistency pony, the safe bet in a world of mercurial Kvitovas, Azarenkas, Serenas, and Kims.

Awaiting her in the second round could be Tsvetana Pironkova who has been to the QF or better here the last two years.  Despite those chops, I expect Sharapova to roll.  The next highest seed in her quarter is Kerber (8) who, although a semifinalist at USO last year and a quarter showing at the French, still feels to me like an unproven quantity.

More dangerous perhaps is Kim Clijsters whose 4 slam titles and stints at #1 speak of a deep and abiding talent.  Clijsters faces Jankovic in the first round whose grass chops include four R4 appearances at the big W and a runnerup performance last week in Birmingham.

Clijsters has never won Wimbledon but she has two QF and two SF finishes here.  She won a couple matches on grass in the tune-ups before withdrawing.  Will her health hold up all the way through a two week tournament?  Based on interviews, she may be treating Wimbledon as a warmup for the Olympics.  Still if she had to choose, would she really prefer not to have a Wimbledon title?  If Kim focuses, the sky is the limit of what she can accomplish.  It could be an intriguing quarterfinal, and really if Kim is on, she should win.  But there are too many things that could derail her.

Sharapova d. Clijsters

 

Second Quarter

Agnieszka Radwanska at 3 is the top seed here.  She’s been to the quarters twice before and this is undoubtedly her best year to date.  All the more shame therefore that she might meet Venus Williams in round two.  Venus has seemed close to showing some of her former greatness this year but has always run into a tricky opponent or had an off day.  Could Wimbledon, the site of 5 former triumphs, be the place she pulls it all together and finds that winning form of old?  A test against the intelligent Aggie could be a severe one.  The winner has a decent shot at the semis or better.

Petrova or Oudin, both winners of grass court tune-ups could prove challenging in round four for Aggie or Venus.

The other half of the quarter houses Li (11) and Stosur (5).  Stosur has been to the final 3 times – in doubles – but amazingly has only made it as far as the third round in singles once.  She could be due for a breakthrough, or more likely grass singles just isn’t her thing.

Li could be a much more serious threat.  Her W-L is 12-5 at Wimbledon, including two QF appearances.  Her short, flat strokes seem tailor-made for grass.  Picking among Li, Venus, and Radwanska seems like a lot of guesswork.  Li has the right game, Venus has history, and Radwanska has the smarts.

Li d. Radwanska

 

Third Quarter

Former champs Serena Williams (6) and Petra Kvitova (4) loom large here.  They have the talent and grass games to stage what could be a massive and fascinating quarterfinal.  Serena can be fierce, hard-hitting, and consistent, while Kvitova can hit winners from anywhere on the court, seemingly without warning.

But both have been models of inconsistency.  Last year Kvitova won 4 tournaments through Wimbledon – this year zero.  Serena looked invincible on clay this year till her first round flame out at the French.  There would seem little to stand in the way of either in this quarter.  Cibulkova could lurk for Kvitova in R4.  If they can show even half of what they are capable of on grass, Serena and Petra should be able to set up a much anticipated block buster.

Based on youth and winner-hitting ability, I’d give the edge to Kvitova.  But long gone are the days when Petra seemed poised to seize the reins of the game – a mere 5 months ago.  Kvitova has not found her game all year and after a two year slam drought, Serena has to be hungrier.

Serena d. Kvitova

 

Fourth Round

If this were April, I’d probably be pencilling Azarenka (2) straight into the semis or better.  She seemed invincible, streaking through four consecutive tournament victories, her first slam title, and a seeming stranglehold on the #1 ranking.  But now both Victoria and the next highest seed here, Wozniacki (7) look far from shoo-ins.  Was it really only 5 months ago that Wozniacki was #1?  It feels like a Safina ago.

There are other strong contenders in this quarter who could make the plot excellent reading – all talented and unpredictable.  Kuznetsova (32 - really?!) has been to the QF three times.  Ana Ivanovic – “is the comeback for real this time?” – has been good enough to make 14 seed and is a former semi-finalist.  Former finalist Bartoli (9) showed she’s still a threat when she took out Serena last year.  But this isn’t 2007, and that’s when all three of this trio had their last, best run.

There is no clear favourite in this basement quarter, but someone has to win it.  Maybe a real underdog – like Tamira Paszek, Kristina Mladenovic, or Irina Falconi – or (shades of 1999) Mirjana Lucic, then a semifinalist.  Azarenka seems the obvious choice.  A little bit of last year’s Wimbledon mojo, some good memories from Jan-Mar and she could be well on her way.

Bartoli loves the grass and should be focussed – in her own bouncy way.  It looks like she believes in herself, and that might just be enough.  Can she overcome Azarenka’s power and (help me) consistency?

Azarenka d. Bartoli

 

Semis

Li really could go all the way.  But I have the feeling she’s had just enough satisfaction in her now laudable career to want it a smidgeon less than Maria.

Sharapova d. Li

If, and it’s a big if, Serena makes it this far, she has proven deadly in Wimbledon’s later stages.  I don’t think Azarenka has the firepower or the heart to deal with an in-form Serena.  But Serena is not invincible, especially at this stage of her career – as last year’s US Open final showed.

Serena d. Azarenka

 

Final

If the crystal ball has worked this far, it will be the final most are hoping for.  The two biggest names in female tennis – perhaps in all of women’s sports – mano a mano in what has been historically the biggest tournament in the game.  Sharapova in the role, strangely, of predictability and consistency, Serena starring as the erratic genius.  But how erratic are 13 previous slam titles?  She’s one away from equalling Sampras’ career haul.

Serena had created the perfect image to intimidate her opponents – massive talent and indomitable will.  But the cracks, and age, have been showing.  Her collapses in the USO final last year and at this year’s French mean that she’s not quite as terrifying as she once was.  Nerves have shown.  She’s human after all.

And Sharapova may be the least intimidate-able opponent on the tour.  She looks like she’s doing her own thing on the court:  blocking out her surroundings in that little face-the-wall zen-breathe-pray thing she does between points.

But against talent and flair, she can look wooden and uninspired, as she did against Kvitova and Azarenka in her most recent slam final losses.   And Serena at Wimbledon – we might as well use that to define inspiration.

Serena d. Sharapova

 

Bookies.com average on 24 Jun 2012

1	Sharapova, M	3.63
2	Williams, S	3.94
3	Kvitova, P	6.40
4	Azarenka, V	9.14
5	Clijsters, K	20.31
6	Williams, V	27.13
7	Li, N	29.13
8	Kerber, A	32.69
9	Stosur, S	37.94
10	Bartoli, M	40.81
11	Petkovic, A	41.00
12	Radwanska, A	42.38
13	Wozniacki, C	50.19
14	Lisicki, S	64.00
15	Kanepi, K	67.00
16	Ivanovic, A	95.38
17	Makarova, E	108.80
18	Cibulková, D	117.36
19	Kuznetsova, S	121.19
20	Pironkova, T	123.06
21	Petrova, N	136.27
22	Barthel, M	143.75
23	Paszek, T	151.93
24	Jankovic, J	157.44
25	Goerges, J	170.88
26	Errani, S	199.79
27	Schiavone, F	219.31
28	Zvonareva, V	224.31
29	Wickmayer, Y	227.13
30	Pavlyuchenkova, A	233.44

 

Expert Picks (espn.com mostly not reporting)

1.       Sharapova (5 picks) – Bodo, McGrogan (tennis.com); Wertheim, Price, Nguyen (SI.com)

2.       SWilliams (4 picks) – Bowers (tennisserver.com); Pagliaro, Tignor (tennis.com); Ubha (espn.com)

3.       Azarenka (1 pick) – Jenkins (SI.com)

3.       Clijsters (1 pick) – Graham (SI.com)