US Open 2012 – Men
Whose year will it be?
The four major events of the year have had 4 different winners. Novak Djokovic won the Australian, Rafael
Nadal won Roland Garros, Roger Federer took Wimbledon, and Andy Murray the
Olympics. A win at the US Open would
probably propel any of the top 4 to best of the year in most people’s
minds.
Unfortunately Nadal is out of the Open. His match winning percentage 87.5% (42-6) is
second best of the year after Federer and ahead of Djokovic. However his record on clay is 23-1, while off
clay he is only 19-5. The big question
surrounding Nadal is when he will come back?
Hopefully this is not some further weird parallel with Bjorn Borg’s
career. Both excel on clay, burst on the
scene as teenagers, dominated the French Open, play with heavy topspin, made
the final of every Wimbledon they played for 6 years, even their birthdays are
only 3 days apart.
Borg apparently suffered burnout after 1981 and never played
another grand slam event. He tried to
come back to Wimbledon in 1982 but the rules of the day forbade him from
playing if he hadn’t played enough events in the previous 12 months. He thought he deserved to get in regardless,
refused to budge, and the rest is history.
Nadal’s situation is somewhat different. His foot and knees are the problem. A collapsing arch (the pain of which I know
all too well) puts unnatural pressure on his knees, making them vulnerable to
injury. Nadal’s physical, hard-charging
game means even more pounding on the body than seems to afflict a more graceful
mover like Federer.
The result unfortunately, is that one of the great all time
talents is out of the US Open. He says
he hopes to be playing again for the Davis Cup in September. We can only hope the return is that soon. It would be a hard loss to the game if Nadal
did not play another slam event like Borg.
Nadal is only 26 and we would normally expect at least another 3 or 4
good years from his career, if not more.
If Nadal does try to play a reduced schedule to save his
body, at least he won’t be banned from GS events the way Borg was. The rules now would only result in him having
a lower ranking, and I’m confident any tournament in the world would be eager
to give Nadal a wildcard into their main draw.
So that leaves Federer, Djokovic, and Murray. Federer currently holds the #1 spot on the
ATP computer. But has Djokovic really been
deposed?
Statistics on match winning percentage and tournament wins for
2012 clearly favour Federer.
|
Player
|
Match Wins
|
Match Losses
|
Match %
|
Tournament
Titles
|
|
Federer
|
56
|
7
|
88.9
|
6
|
|
Nadal
|
42
|
6
|
87.5
|
4
|
|
Djokovic
|
54
|
10
|
84.4
|
3
|
|
Ferrer
|
53
|
11
|
82.8
|
5
|
|
Del Potro
|
48
|
13
|
78.7
|
2
|
|
Murray
|
40
|
11
|
78.4
|
2
|
Federer won 16 straight matches in Feb-Mar and is 17-1 since
the start of Wimbledon. These are not
exactly the 35+ win streaks he was racking up in 2005-07, but they do suggest
an ominous return to form. He seems to
be riding a wave of confidence.
Returning to the GS winner’s circle at Wimbledon after a two and a half
year absence will do that.
He also won the last battle with Djokovic on Cincinnati
hardcourts, so appears to be in excellent form for the US Open next week. Federer has won Cincinnati four previous
times and has been to the USO final in each of those years, except 2010 when he
held match points against Djokovic in the semis but failed to convert. For his part, Djokovic just took his third
Canadian crown. He has followed up each
previous Canadian title with a trip to the US Open final, including the title
last year.
This year the two rivals are at 2 wins apiece when they’ve
faced each other, with both of Djokovic’s wins coming on clay. After his Cincinnati loss to Federer, Novak
pointed out that the USO courts are slower than Cincinnati and thought that
would favour himself. Djokovic won the
last two encounters with Federer at the US Open, but Federer had won the
previous three.
Overall then, it seems there is little to choose between the
two. Novak has had a good year, if not
as stellar as 2011, but I think most would give the edge for 2012 to
Roger. I do wonder if Roger will feel
the urgency of winning another slam title a little less pointedly than he might
have at Wimbledon. It might be all the
window Djokovic needs. The bookies have
sided with Djokovic (much to my surprise).
US Open odds from bookies.com 21 Aug 2012
|
Rating
|
Player
|
Decimal Odds
|
|
1
|
Djokovic, N
|
2.63
|
|
2
|
Federer, R
|
3.48
|
|
3
|
Murray, A
|
4.42
|
|
4
|
Nadal, R
|
5.00
|
|
5
|
Del Potro, JM
|
10.39
|
|
6
|
Tsonga, JW
|
33.91
|
|
7
|
Raonic, M
|
46.96
|
|
8
|
Ferrer, D
|
57.83
|
|
9
|
Berdych, T
|
58.30
|
|
10
|
Isner, J
|
59.55
|
|
11
|
Fish, M
|
122.04
|
|
12
|
Söderling, R
|
124.17
|
|
13
|
Cilic, M
|
150.91
|
|
14
|
Roddick, A
|
168.70
|
|
15
|
Tomic, B
|
174.39
|
|
16
|
Gasquet, R
|
190.17
|
|
17
|
Tipsarevic, J
|
194.23
|
|
18
|
Nalbandian, D
|
204.00
|
Players in grey font not playing USO
Eager to upset this cozy duopoly will be Andy Murray. He still has not won a grand slam title. But many, including me, feel that his victory
in the Olympics over Federer at the site of Wimbledon will be just as good for
his confidence. Federer has been saying
for at least 5 years that he wanted to play the Olympics and London. The singles gold medal has been notably on
his to-do list for years. The event just
passed was probably his last best chance but he was beaten soundly by Murray in
the final, 18 games to 7.
So Murray’s self-confidence should be high. He’s finally shown he can win a big
tournament, on a big stage, against the world’s best. Will it have sated him? He has not looked promising on North American
hard courts this summer. He pulled out
of his second match in Toronto against Milos Raonic and then lost in straights
to Jeremy Chardy in Cincinnati – also in his second match. This is an ill portent for the Open. It is possible Murray is suffering a mental
slump after a career-defining win at the Olympics. He has the game to win in Queens, will he be
in the right head space to produce it?
On the other hand, he STILL has not claimed a grand slam title, and that
will hopefully keep him hungry and focussed enough to produce his best tennis
in New York.
But even if Murray did win the US Open. Would that make him #1 for the year? Not according to the computer.
|
Player
|
ATP point
standing
|
2011 US Open
points
|
Pre-US Open
points
|
2012 US Open
points
|
Post-US Open
points
|
|
Federer
|
12,165
|
720 (SF)
|
11,445
|
0
|
11,445
|
|
Djokovic
|
11,270
|
2,000 (W)
|
9,270
|
0
|
9,270
|
|
Nadal
|
8,715
|
1,200 (RU)
|
7,515
|
0
|
7,515
|
|
Murray
|
7,290
|
720 (SF)
|
6,570
|
2,000 (W)
|
8,570
|
A win would only make Murray #3, even if Federer and
Djokovic did not play at all. In fact
anything less than a runner-up appearance means that he stays ranked #4 behind
Nadal.
Of course, the year is not over yet. But Murray would have to do a lot of winning
in the fall to get close to Federer’s point total. It is clear from this table that Federer will
be ranked #1 on the ATP computer no matter what happens at the US Open. Even if he does not play and Djokovic wins,
Federer would still have more points (11,445 to 11,270). However Federer has more points to defend in
the fall than either Djokovic or Murray, so the #1 spot could still shift hands
by the end of the year.
If Murray does triumph at the US Open, he may not be computer
#1, but would that give him the best year among his rivals? Murray would then have Olympic and US Open
titles and a runner up showing at Wimbledon.
At most Federer would have the Wimbledon title and finalist spots at the
USO and Olympics. Djokovic’s slate could
be no more than a title at the Australian and runners up at the French and USO.
Overall it would be very close. The rest of Murray’s year has paled in
comparison to Novak’s and Roger’s as his match winning percentage shows, but I
would still be tempted to give the nod to Murray for his better performance in
the biggest tournaments.
Outside of the top 4 are there any potential contenders for
the crown? The first name springing to
most minds is likely Juan Martin Del Potro.
He is the next favourite of the bookies after the Big Four. He has been gradually returning to the top
ranks after missing most of 2010 with a wrist injury. But he has not shown the world-beating form
of 2009 when he took out Nadal and Federer successively for the USO title.
There were however, promising signs at the Olympics. He lost a ridiculously close third set 17-19
to Federer in the semis and then went on to beat Djokovic for the bronze. He did not fare as well in Cincinnati losing
3 and 2 to Novak on hard, after losing his first round in Toronto. Hopefully those bad losses are just an
adjustment to hard courts. If he can
bring his Olympics game to New York, he has a decent shot at the title.
No one else has a reasonable chance at the title, in my
opinion. Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried
Tsonga could get hot and cause a lot of damage, but unless the top seeds are
upset by others along the way, I don’t see them beating two or three of the Big
Four. Milos Raonic is an unproven
quantity and grossly overestimated by the bookies at this point, in my opinion.
Turning to the draws...
Top Quarter
Federer is the #1 seed and it would be a huge upset if he did
not emerge from this quarter. None of
the seeds near him look likely to cause any trouble, Verdasco (25), Fish (23),
Simon (16), Almagro (11). The next
highest seed is Tomas Berdych (6).
Berdych has beaten Federer in the past, but has not seemed in the form
this summer to do it again.
Federer d. Berdych
Second Quarter
Andy Murray (3) heads this quarter and he could have some
interesting tests if he wants to emerge in the semis. The loose cannon is Raonic (15). Milos could very possibly not reach the 4R to
face Murray, but if he does, that big serve on his favourite surface, can cause
a lot of damage. Murray should have
enough game to weather the storm, but the battle of one of the game`s best
servers against one of its best returners, could be entertaining.
The bottom section contains Tsonga (5) who would likely face
Cilic (12) or Nishikori (17). None of
these players play with the consistency to make predicting easy. Nishikori seems to love this surface and can
be very dangerous when he`s on. But the
odds are with the charging, hard-hitting game of Tsonga.
If Murray is playing close to his ability, he should emerge
from this quarter. If he`s in a funky
headspace from his Olympics win, anything could happen.
Murray d. Tsonga
Third Quarter
This is probably the most wide open quarter of the draw and
represents the best chance for a career showing by a journeyman. The top seed is ostensibly Ferrer at #4. Ferrer has had a stellar year with 5
tournament wins, but he has looked off form of late, losing to Nishikori at the
Olympics and in his first match at Toronto.
He could meet Mikhail Youzhny (28) in 3R, who has been
dangerous at the Open in the past (SF 2006, 2010), but a bigger threat might
come in the 4th round against either Richard Gasquet (13) or Tommy
Haas (21). Haas is 34 and on the
comeback trail. He won in Halle this
year and recently made finals in Hamburg and Washington, before losing in three
sets to Djokovic in Toronto.
The top part of this quarter could come down to Janko
Tipsarevic (8) or John Isner (9). Isner's
fortunes seem to be doing a sine wave this year and right now they`re near the
top of the wave. But Tipsarevic is
generally underestimated and has been in the top 10 for the better part of a
year now.
The safe bet for this quarter is probably Ferrer. The sexy bet is probably Isner, but I`m going
for old.
Haas d. Tipsarevic
Bottom Quarter
Things get a little
more predictable in the bottom quarter.
It`s bracketed by Del Potro (7) and Djokovic (2). Tommy Robredo makes his first return to grand
slam play after being sidelined since Wimbledon 2011. He`s been to the 4th round a
remarkable 7 times and no further. He`ll
need a miracle to do it this year.
Bernard Tomic is an entertaining shotmaker to watch out
for. The young Aussie could face Andy
Roddick (20) in 2R. Alexandr Dologopolov
(14) and Stanislas Wawrinka (18) are also here, but the winner of their
potential 3rd rounder would be lucky to survive Djokovic.
In the end it should come down to Djokovic and Del Potro. Delpo just beat Novak for the bronze in the
Olympics, but Djokovic got revenge in the semis of Cincinnati. Both are former winners in New York. It could be very close. But since Del Potro has not fully recovered
his 2009 form to my mind, I give the edge to Djokovic.
Semis
If Murray were to make it to the semis in a confident frame
of mind and playing his best tennis, I`d be tempted to pick him over Roger and to
go all the way to his first slam title.
But I think Murray is in a weakish quarter that he may win almost by
default. Roger, on the other hand, looks
sharp, especially after the win in Cincinnati.
If Murray should win this, I`d pick him to go all the way. But for now,
Federer d. Murray
Whoever emerges from the bottom quarter, Djokovic or Del
Potro, should be able to battle past the winner of the weak 3rd
quarter.
Djokovic d. Haas
Final
A Federer-Djokovic final will definitely be for bragging
rights for the year. The winner would
almost certainly be regarded by nearly everyone as the best player of the
year. Djokovic has survived match
points against Federer in the semis the last two years at the US Open. But I don`t think he`ll do it again, and this
will be a final.
Federer d. Djokovic
If Federer does manage to claim his 18th slam
crown it will be uncharted territory for a male tennis player and he will join
the likes of Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert with 18 slam singles
wins. He would also join Jack Nicklaus
who has 18 majors in golf.
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