Australian Open 2012 – Men’s Preview
Can anyone stop the big
four? Or is that the big three? Besides Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic, there
has been only one other slam winner in the last 7 years (27 majors), Del Potro
at USO 2009. Before that it was Safin at
Australian Open 2005. Is Murray finally
ready? I’ve sworn I would never again
pick him for a major win until he’s put up the goods. Did I resist?
I’m starting from the bottom this time.
Fourth quarter
Rafael Nadal has become
everyone’s favourite whipping boy to start the year. ‘He doesnt’t believe anymore’ or ‘he’s lost
his mental edge’ or even ‘he’s lost a step.’
But 3 slam finals last year (one a win) and five 1000 finals (two wins)
are a slump most players would line up for.
Nadal was barely out-competed last year by the slimmest of margins – by
one man. Nadal’s level may in fact have
been as high as in his banner 2010. But
Djokovic was razor sharp. If Novak loses
even a smidgeon, the balance could very well shift. I am not among the prophets of Rafa’s demise.
With that said, the AO is
probably the least favourable slam for Nadal.
But that has been mitigated somewhat by probably the easiest draw of the
big 4. Haas, Ljubicic, Davydenko, and
Nalbandian are all former #2 or 3 players. Five years ago this would have been an
intimidating lineup. But the faded glory
of Great Expectations hangs heavily around them. The biggest threats probably come from Isner
(seeded 16) or Berdych (7) who could meet Nadal in the 4R or QF, respectively.
Isner’s 0-3 record
against Nadal does not raise much prospect of an upset, but the 5-set escape
Nadal had to manufacture at Roland Garros last year makes for some
interest. Isner may have improved since
then, but bottom line, Nadal has too much game.
Berdych has added some
consistency to his traditional streakiness and looked to be on a hot one in 5
wins at Hopman Cup. If he’s on he could
trouble Nadal and even win. But on
balance, this is a major and I expect Nadal to be close to top form.
Nadal def Berdych
Third Quarter
Roger Federer is just too
good to ever be counted out. At first
glance the seedings in his bracket do not look particularly difficult, but
potential landmines in the 4R include Bernard Tomic and Dolgopolov (13). The QF then could bring up Fish (8) or Del
Potro (11). Del Potro is the real
cracker-jack here. Pretty much anything
is possible, including a title run. Beating
Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic consecutively is, however, probably too tall an
order. My feeling is Del Potro has not
yet hit full throttle in his comeback.
Meanwhile, Federer has become an adept at ringing the most from his
aging body. It could be a gauntlet for
Federer to gain the semi, it could also be a cakewake. Will Tomic breakout, again?
Federer def Del Potro
Second Quarter
It’s the first time since
the French 2006 that Djokovic and Murray have landed in the same half of
major: back when both were
unseeded. The rest of this bracket
should be called the French quarter.
Tsonga (6) and Simon (12) could meet in 4R and opposite Murray is
Monfils (14). Recently crowned Sydney
champ Bennetteau is also here along with three more of his compatriots. The three French seeds are the only real
prospects to derail the Murray express.
Tsonga looked superlative sweeping through Doha over Monfils in the
final. Jo-Wilfried may be the most
dangerous man in the draw after the big 4.
He’s been in the final at AO before and it would only be a mild surprise
if he were to do it again. Monfils is
likewise massively talented and he could pull an upset, even if the title is
out of reach.
Much has been made of
Murray’s switch to Lendl as a coach. I
think it can’t but help him. Will it be
enough to overcome Tsonga’s recent incredible form? Although Tsonga’s lone win came at AO in
2008, based on a 1-5 history, my vote is with Murray.
Murray def Tsonga
Top Quarter
Is Djokovic 2011
back? Expecting a similar cornucopia of
results as last year is probably unreasonable, but there is little to make one
suspect Novak won’t play at the same level.
His quarter is not particularly difficult, but there are some potential
upsetters here: Milos Raonic (23) and
tough outs Roddick (15) and Ferrer (5).
Raonic is as much of a
wildcard as John Isner is. That big
serve can be devastating. Purportedly,
Raonic has more in the ‘rest of the game’ department, but Isner has so far been
better at exploiting his talent and translating it into consistent wins. It could be wild fourth rounder but I’d
expect Novak’s more complete game and the best return in tennis to prevail.
Of course there’s the
ticklish matter of Roddick for Raonic to navigate first. The former USO winner could round into
brilliant form, even if it would be unexpected.
The metronomic
consistency of Ferrer might be Djokovic’s biggest challenge in this quarter. Their 6-5 record (for Novak) bespeaks a close
rivalry and Ferrer should never be underestimated. But if Novak is close to last year’s form, it
should go his way.
Djokovic def Ferrer
Semis
Another Federer-Nadal
classic would indeed be a treat. This
should be Federer’s for the taking based on surface alone, but last year’s four
instalments of the rivalry went 3-1 for Nadal, including a drubbing on hard in
Miami. Nadal’s game poses particular
challenges for Federer. If there is any
argument against adopting a two-handed backhand it should be demolished by
observing that the ‘greatest player of all time’ with one of if not ‘the’ best
one-handers of all time, finds that backhand a weakness against his greatest
rival. Because Federer’s amazing
one-hander is a weakness, I’ve switched to double-fist.
I expect it to be close,
and I expect Nadal to prevail.
Nadal def Federer
The first ever
Murray-Djokovic major semi could be revealing.
Will Murray be able to prevail on the big stage if he doesn’t have the
pressure of a final tying him down?
Djokovic def Murray
Final
Questions are sure to
swirl again about Nadal losing his edge.
It’s by no means a given against what may be the greatest competitor of
all time, but this is now Novak’s surface.
Djokovic def Nadal
Average from bookies.com,
14 Jan 2012
|
1
|
Djokovic,
N
|
2.24
|
|
2
|
Federer,
R
|
4.74
|
|
3
|
Murray,
A
|
6.23
|
|
4
|
Nadal, R
|
6.68
|
|
5
|
Del
Potro, JM
|
16.89
|
|
6
|
Tsonga,
JW
|
17.72
|
|
7
|
Berdych,
T
|
35.28
|
|
8
|
Ferrer,
D
|
53.50
|
|
9
|
Tomic, B
|
64.83
|
|
10
|
Raonic,
M
|
65.11
|
|
11
|
Monfils,
G
|
79.72
|
|
12
|
Fish, M
|
112.94
|
|
13
|
Tipsarevic,
J
|
120.60
|
|
14
|
Dolgopolov,
A
|
126.24
|
|
15
|
Baghdatis,
M
|
129.38
|
|
16
|
Roddick,
A
|
154.06
|
|
17
|
Isner, J
|
159.56
|
|
18
|
Gasquet,
R
|
184.27
|
|
19
|
Söderling,
R
|
187.67
|
|
20
|
Simon, G
|
200.94
|
|
21
|
Verdasco,
F
|
202.33
|
|
22
|
Cilic, M
|
202.50
|
|
23
|
Nalbandian,
D
|
212.06
|
|
24
|
Wawrinka,
S
|
237.60
|
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