WTA yearend - 4 Nov 2012

WTA Yearend – 4 Nov 2012             By Charles Friesen

I find it a little amusing the way the WTA seems to be pushing Victoria Azarenka.  Articles pop up on their site about what a deserving #1 she is, how she has earned it, and about how dominant she has been.  Unfortunately, it all rings a little hollow.  Once again, the real #1 at yearend is obviously Serena Williams.

Of course, it is true that Azarenka has earned the #1 ranking on the computer.  It’s a highly defensible, transparent system of points accumulation.  Even better, Azarenka copped a grand slam title this year.  Unlike Jankovic who finished computer #1 in 2008 and Wozniacki in 2010 and 2011, Azarenka has legitimized her place with unimpeachable pedigree – a slam title.  So her position as undisputed #1 should be unassailable.

Except that she’s clearly not the best player in the world.  Serena Williams, who has won 48 of the last 50 matches she has played, and beaten Azarenka 6 times this year without a loss, makes a stronger argument for ‘year’s best’… as she did in 2008, 2009, and 2010 – a period during she won which 5 slam titles.

This year Serena’s total match record was 58-4 or 0.935 (W-L), with 7 tournament titles, two of which were slams.

Win-Loss record for 2012:

	W	L	Win rate
Serena Williams	58	4	0.935
Victoria Azarenka	69	10	0.873
Maria Sharapova	60	11	0.845
Kim Clijsters	20	6	0.769
Agnieszka Radwanska	59	19	0.756
Petrova Kvitova	45	16	0.738
Angelique Kerber	60	22	0.732
Venus Williams	24	9	0.727
Sara Errani	55	22	0.714
Li Na	42	17	0.712
Caroline Wozniacki	50	21	0.704
Samantha Stosur	44	24	0.647
Ana Ivanovic	36	20	0.643
Nadia Petrova	34	19	0.642
Marion Bartoli	41	25	0.621
Maria Kirilenko	32	22	0.593

What’s interesting in this table is that Kim Clijsters is 4^th and Venus Williams is 8^th.  They didn’t play a lot of matches, but they show the quality of their play with their win percentages.  Perhaps if they had played more their percentages would not be as high, but that is speculation.  Clijsters is now retired and I suspect Venus won’t last much longer.

The table also tells me that the top 3 have really pulled away from the rest of the field – at least for 2012.  The three of them claimed all the slam titles, with Serena especially shining, taking Wimbledon, the US Open, and the Olympics.

Serena claimed 7 titles for the year, just ahead of Azarenka who had 6.  Here’s a list of the top performers on finals day for this year.

Player	Titles
Serena Williams	7
Victoria Azarenka	6
Sara Errani	4
Maria Sharapova	3
Nadia Petrova	3
Agnieszka Radwanska	3
Caroline Wozniacki	2
Petra Kvitova	2
Angelique Kerber	2
Kaia Kanepi	2

Serena’s total of 7 titles has not been matched since 2007 when Justine Henin won 10 titles.   While her performance has not translated into the #1 computer ranking, her dominance when she played and the number of titles she won is a great improvement over the ‘parity years’ of 2008-09 when no player won more than 4 titles.

Player with most titles won for the year:

Year	Player(s)	Titles
2004	Davenport	7
2005	Clijsters	9
2006	Henin	6
2007	Henin	10
2008	SWilliams, Safina, Jankovic	4
2009	Wozniacki, SWilliams, Safina, Kuznetsova, Dementieva, Azarenka	3
2010	Wozniacki	6
2011	Wozniacki, Kvitova	6
2012	SWilliams	7

 Serena has only beaten this yearly haul once, in 2002, when she took home 8 singles trophies, including 3 slam titles.  Her win percentage for the year, 93.5, is her best ever (91.8 in 2002, 92.7 in 2003).  Her total number of matches played for the year is 62, her highest ever, tied with 2009; and she has never won more matches in one year:  58 (second is 56 in 2002).

What these numbers say is that 2012 is one of Serena’s best years ever.  Ironically, she is ranked only #3 on the computer, largely because she does not play the maximum number of tournaments that the WTA counts towards a player’s ranking.  Looking at the average points a player won per tournament is another interesting stat.  Sharapova comes out on top for consistently high performance.

Average WTA points per tournament, 2012:

Player	Average Points/Tournament	# Tournaments
Sharapova	726.1	14
SWilliams	723.1	13
Azarenka	630.6	17
ARadwanska	350.0	22
Kvitova	303.4	18
Li	299.8	17
Kerber	291.7	21
Clijsters	266.4	7
Errani	240.1	23

Who is #1 for the year in the WTA has been a contentious issue since at least 2000.  After the Graf era ended in 1996, there was reasonable agreement that Hingis was #1 for 1997 and 1999, and Davenport was #1 for 1998.  Since then, there have been few years in which there was consensus.  My list of possible contenders are the lists of WTA computer yearend #1’s, the WTA award, and the ITF award.

Year	Computer #1	GS Titles	Titles	Win rate	WTA award	GS Titles	Titles	Win rate	ITF award	GS Titles	Titles	Win rate	Charles pick	GS Titles	Titles	Win rate
2012	Azarenka	1	6	.873									SWillms	2	7	.935
2011	Wozniacki	0	6	.788	Kvitova	1	6	.822	Kvitova	1	6	.822	Kvitova	1	6	.822
2010	Wozniacki	0	6	.785	Clijsters	1	5	.851	Woznki	0	6	.785	SWillms	2	2	.862
2009	SWilliams	2	3	.806	SWillms	2	3	.806	SWillms	2	3	.806	SWillms	2	3	.806
2008	Jankovic	0	4	.774	SWillms	1	4	.846	Jankvc	0	4	.774	SWillms	1	4	.846
2007	Henin	2	10	.940	Henin	2	10	.940	Henin	2	10	.940	Henin	2	10	.940
2006	Henin	1	6	.882	Maursm	2	4	.785	Henin	1	6	.882	Henin	1	6	.882
2005	Davenport	0	6	.857	Clijsters	1	9	.882	Clijsters	1	9	.882	Clijsters	1	9	.882
2004	Davenport	0	7	.875	Sharapv	1	5	.786	Myskina	1	3	.753	Henin	1	5	.897
2003	Henin	2	8	.872	Henin	2	8	.872	Henin	2	8	.872	Henin	2	8	.872
2002	SWilliams	3	8	.918	SWillms	3	8	.918	SWillms	3	8	.918	SWillms	3	8	.918
2001	Davenport	0	7	.873	Capriati	2	3	.800	Capriati	2	3	.800	VWillms	2	6	.902
2000	Hingis	0	9	.885	VWillms	2	6	.911	Hingis	0	9	.885	VWillms	2	6	.911

The most contentious years are 2004 (4 contenders), 2010, 2001 (3 contenders), and 2011, 2008, 2006, 2005, 2000 (2 contenders).  In all cases I have chosen the player with the best win rate for the year from among the contenders.  In almost all cases this is also the person with the most GS titles for the year, except for 2006, when it is the most titles for the year.  Looking at these criteria, I think the choices are reasonably obvious – although clearly not everyone agrees.

Top 3

Serena, Azarenka, and Sharapova seemed to have elevated themselves from the rest of the pack.  The big 3 aren’t exactly like the big 4 over on the men’s tour – but they did win all the GS titles this year, three of the four Premier Mandatory events, and combined for 16 titles total. 

Their leads in the points race over their competitors is significant (graph, below).  Radwanska is closest, but she has yet to prove herself in the majors.  She is nearly 2000 points behind Serena, and then it’s another 2000 points to 5^th ranked Kerber.

It is a virtual dead heat between Kerber, Errani, Li, and Kvitova, and then there is a 1000 point gap to Stosur in 9^th.  The 10^th spot in the yearend rankings goes to Wozniacki just overtaking Bartoli by virtue of her performance in the Tournament of Champions in Sofia. 

Serena lost only 4 times all year, won 4 of the 6 biggest tournaments (Wim, US, Oly, YEC) and had win streaks of 17, 19, and 12 matches (the last one still active).   But it was a pretty good year for Azarenka as well.

Victoria started the year on a tear with a 26 match win streak spanning 4 tournament victories, including that elusive first slam title at the Australian Open.  She seized the #1 ranking that everyone had all but granted to Kvitova, and held it the rest of the year except for 4 weeks after Sharapova won the French Open.  Azarenka finished last year at #3 on the computer, and her hard hitting, emotional game led me to believe she might someday win a slam, but I doubted she would have the consistency to hold on to the #1 ranking.  But she has proved me wrong.

Sharapova had a good year, finishing with her highest ever yearend ranking at #2, tied with 2006.  She finished at #4 in 2011, 2005, and 2004, and at #5 in 2007.  She also completes 10 consecutive years winning at least 1 singles title, a record among active players, (Serena  6, Wozniacki 5, Azarenka  4).

Record for most consecutive years with at least one singles title – Open Era (since 1968):

Player	# Years	Years
Martina Navratilova	21	1974-94
Chris Evert	18	1971-88
Steffi Graf	14	1986-99
Virginia Wade	11	1968-78
Evonne Goolagong	11	1970-80
Maria Sharapova	10	2003-12

The Big 3 Next Year

Looking into 2013, there is a real chance Azarenka could lose the #1 ranking in the early part of the year.  I’d say the chances of repeating her 4 tournament run are slim, so she will be vulnerable to being overtaken if either Sharapova or Serena better their first 3 months of last year.  Sharapova does not have as much room for improvement, defending runner up performances in Melbourne, Indian Wells, and Miami (2800 points), but Serena defends only 650 points over the same stretch. 

Unless Azarenka repeats at the Australian Open she will almost certainly lose the #1 ranking by the first week of Feb.  If Serena makes the AO final, she will become #1 as long as she isn’t beaten there by Sharapova.  Unless Serena stops playing, I expect her to be #1 by the end of March.

Serena must be considered the favourite for the Australian, Wimbledon, and US Open titles.  If her game is on, she seems capable of demolishing even the best of contenders.  Azarenka and Sharapova both made two slam finals in 2012, winning one each.  They have to be considered favourites to add to their Major haul if Serena falters.  Of the two, Azarenka has the more varied and creative game.  Sharapova excels at mental tenacity and getting the most out of her one-dimensionally hard-hitting strategy.

The dicey one to predict is the French Open.  There is no clear dominant player on clay, the way Justine Henin was.  There seems no reason Serena couldn’t win again in Paris.  She won two clay court tune-ups in 2012 including the big one in Madrid.  But it is certainly her weakest surface and neutralizes her big serve.  Grinding out long rallies does not suit her first strike style, but regardless, if she can concentrate, she should still be the favourite at Roland Garros.  In short, a calendar Grand Slam is not out of the question for Serena, however, I would say the likelihood is low – too many things could go wrong.

Sharapova completely turned around her cow-on-ice self-identification by completing the career slam this year.  She could win in Paris again, and will factor highly as a favourite at the French.  Nor should former champs, Li, Schiavone, Kuznetsova, and a resurgent Ivanovic be discounted, or former finalists, Errani and Stosur.  Azarenka has not been past the QF in Paris, but Kvitova has.  She seems to do well on dirt (Madrid 2011), and if her monster shots start connecting could claim a second slam.  I have to give a slight edge to Serena, but really there are at least 10 women that could win the French.

Overall, I’ll be expecting Serena to win 2 or 3 of the slams.  If she does she will become the first major star since the 1950’s to win more than one slam after her 31^st birthday.

Slams won after 31^st birthday:

Player	Slam Titles	Era	# Slams Won After 31st Birthday
Serena Williams	15	1990-2010’s	?
Steffi Graf	22	1980-90’s	0
Martina Navratilova	18	1970-90’s	1
Chris Evert	18	1970-80’s	1
Billie Jean King	12	1960-70’s	1
Margaret Smith Court	24	1960-70’s	1
Maria Bueno	7	1960’s	0
Maureen Connolly	9	1950’s	0
Althea Gibson	5	1950’s	1
Louise Brough	6	1940-50’s	1
Margaret Osborne DuPont	6	1940-50’s	3
Pauline Betz	5	1940-50’s	0
Alice Marble	5	1930-40’s	0
Helen Wills Moody	20*	1920-30’s	1
Suzanne Lenglen	12*	1910-20’s	0
Molla Bjurstedt Mallory	8	1910-20’s	8

*includes World Hard Court Championships titles before 1925

I rate Sharapova and Azarenka about equally likely to claim a slam between them in 2012 – probably the US Open.  The French remains the mystery – maybe Kvitova and Errani will battle it out in the final…??  If Azarenka can maintain her high standard from this year, she could very well finish yearend #1 again, even if Serena is the “real #1”.  I could easily see the Big 3 finishing as the top 3 next year as well.  Kvitova is the only real threat to play interloper, but overall, the top 3 look stronger.

The Rest of the Top 10

Kvitova

After finishing 2011 as #1 on most lists for her triple crown of Wimbledon, YEC, and Fed Cup titles, Kvitova definitely came down a notch in 2012.  She made SF in Melbourne and Paris, and won titles in Canada and New Haven.  She gets some credit for helping the Czechs retain the Fed Cup title.  But most telling perhaps was her defeat in the quarters of Wimbledon at the hands of Serena.  The 63 75 match was closer than the score suggests.  Last year I speculated that a showdown between Kvitova and Serena at Wimbledon might be for bragging rights of “real #1” and an augur of Petra’s future.  Serena won the battle and it looks increasingly like Kvitova’s career might be similar to Kuznetsova’s or Sharapova’s – rising up from time to time to claim a big title – instead of a future dominant #1.

For 2013, I expect Kvitova to improve on last year’s performance, consolidating a position in the top 5 (she’s at #8 now).  A slam title at the French or Wimbledon is not out of the question, especially if Serena should falter.  After the big 3, she is probably the most likely to claim a Major.

Agnieszka Radwanska

2012 was a breakout year for Radwanska.  After finishing the last 4 years at 8, 14, 10, and 10, the elder Radwanska rose as high as #2 in July and August, and finishes the year at #4.  She gave notice at the end of last year claiming the premier events in Tokyo and Beijing.  She went on to win Dubai, Brussels, and the Premier Mandatory in Miami.  But perhaps her standout performance was making the final at Wimbledon.  After getting blown out of the first set 61, she shocked everyone by claiming the second 75.  But ultimately Serena proved too powerful taking the third 62.

Radwanska’s game is deceptive – not particularly powerful – but she moves the ball around well and seems able to maneuver opponents out of position.  I have doubts that she can improve much and suspect this may have been her peak.  She may be able to make another slam SF in 2013 and another Premier title is not out of the question.

Angelique Kerber

Kerber was one of the two biggest surprises of the year for me (Errani was the other).  She made what seemed like a fluke run to the US Open semis in 2011 from a ranking of 91.  Surprise semi-finalists are not uncommon, but like meteorites, their flame outs are usually followed by a fall to earth.  Having turned 24 in mid-January, I did not place Kerber in the young prodigy class and thought she would probably begin a slow descent from #32 where she ended last year.  But she finishes the year with 2 titles, 60 match wins, and a yearend ranking of #5.

Match Wins for 2012

Player	Match Wins
Azarenka	69
Kerber	60
Sharapova	60
ARadwanska	59
SWilliams	58
Errani	55
Wozniacki	50

Kerber seems to have a lot of self-belief, but I think she will be hard-pressed to repeat 2012.  If she does well she could stay in the top 10 for another few years.  Her SF at Wimbledon probably signals her best shot at a major is on grass, although she did make SF on hard at USO in 2011 and QF at Roland Garros in 2012.  Another major SF in 2012 is about as high as I can foresee for her.

Sara Errani

Sara Errani’s run to the French final was the 3^rd consecutive year an Italian has played in the final.  But she is not a one-trick pony.  She had already made QF in Australia, and went on to a SF at the US Open and four 280-point titles during the year.  She won as many matches in the slam events as Serena Williams.

Matches won at slams in 2012:

Player	Slam matches won
Azarenka	21
Sharapova	21
SWilliams	17
Kvitova	17
Errani	17
ARadwanska	15
Kerber	14
Ivanovic	12

Like Kerber, she will be hard-pressed to repeat the successes of this year and her #6 yearend finish.  However, given her facility at clay and the lack of a dominant player on the surface, she has an outside shot at the French and is #8 in my picks for that tournament, in a fairly wide open field.

Li Na

Number 7 on the computer at yearend is Li Na.  After making two slam finals in 2011, claiming the French, there was almost no expectation 2012 could be better for Li.  But she consolidates her position in the top 10, only 2 spots lower than last year.  Her best performances were the title in Cincinnati and a runner up in Rome, both Premier events.  At the slams she made 4R at AO and the French, and 3R at USO.  I expect she might improve her slam showings next year, but doubt another Major title is likely.  Her best shot is likely the wide-open French.

Samantha Stosur

After her shocking and gutsy win over Serena in the 2011 US Open final, what to expect from Stosur in 2012 was hardly predictable.  She didn’t win a title all year, but finishes in the top 10 (#8) for the third consecutive year (#6 in 2010 and 2011).  She did make her third SF at Roland Garros, the final in Dubai, and QF at the US Open.  Samantha will turn 29 in March, so is unlikely to improve much on past performances.  Given her USO win on hard, her continuing struggles at her home slam in Australia, where she has never been past 4R, is puzzling.  In general, Stosur has had difficulty closing out titles and has only 3 for her career – all the more remarkable that one is the US Open.  In fact her average performance in slam events is 3^rd lowest among slam winners, all time.

Worst Average Slam Performance among Slam Winners:
(W=8, RU=7, SF=6, QF=5, 4R=4, 3R=3, 2R=2, 1R=1)

Player	Average Slam Finish
Chris O’Neil	1.70
Barbara Jordan	2.00
Samantha Stosur	2.55
Iva Majoli	2.62
Sue Barker	2.87
Anastasia Myskina	2.93
Francesca Schiavone	3.00
Mima Jausovec	3.14

For 2013, I’d expect Stosur’s best major to be the French where another SF is possible.

Caroline Wozniacki

Wozniacki finished the last 2 years at #1 on the computer but came within a whisker of not making the yearend top 10 in 2012, only creeping from 11 to 10 in her final weekend of play at the Tournament of Champions in Sofia.  She started reasonably well with a QF in Australia, but collapsed in the middle of the year, losing in the first round at both Wimbledon and the US Open.   She fell out of the top 10 where she had resided for 173 consecutive weeks.

Longest streaks in computer Top 10 (as of 4 Nov 2012):

Player	Longest streak in Top 10	Total weeks in Top 10
Martina Navratilova	1000	1000
Chris Evert	743	743
Steffi Graf	630	674
Gabriela Sabatini	519	522
Pam Shriver	460[1]	460
Arantxa Sanchez Vicario	431	574
Monica Seles	392	624
Lindsay Davenport	332	597
Conchita Martinez	319	516
Martina Hingis	314	371
Venus Williams	293	554
Tracy Austin	287	287
Helena Sukova	281	286
Amelie Mauresmo	272	340
Serena Williams	255	545

Unexpectedly, Venus has both more total weeks and a longer consecutive streak than sister Serena.  Overall the sisters are 7^th and 8^th for most total weeks in the top 10.  Wozniacki is 38^th.  Wozniacki started to right the ship by the end of the year, winning 2 tournaments.  I do not predict the same demise for her as befell Safina and Ivanovic who plummeted severely after stints at the top.

Other Notables

Ana Ivanovic climbs back to a yearend ranking of #13, after finishing three years around #20.  She hasn’t exactly found the form that took her to #1, the French Open crown, and 3 slam finals in 2007-08, but the signs are encouraging.  I predict she may flirt briefly with the top 10 next year.

Marion Bartoli (#11) played an astonishing 25 tournaments in 2012, but won none of them.  Her 41 match wins average to less than 2 per tournament.  She’s currently age 28 and could hover near the top 10 for another year or two.

Nadia Petrova finishes at #12.  She’s 30 and has been around that rank at yearend for most of the last 10 years (except last year at #29) – 12-29-15-20-11-14-6-9-12-12.  The #6 finish came in 2006.  Despite a hard-hitting clean game, she can never seem to translate her occasional brilliance into major hardware.  She is probably on the descent career-wise.

Jelena Jankovic (#22, age 27) – the former #1 seems to have lost her mojo and cannot be considered a serious threat for anything.  She seems to lack the concentration she once possessed.

Venus Williams (#24, age 32) – it is a testament to her greatness that she has the 8^th best match-winning percentage for the year, considering her age and her battle with the auto-immune disease, Sjogren’s.  If she plays more, she could very well rise up the rankings.  Regaining the top 10 might be just within reach, but a deep slam run, past the QF say, is unlikely, even at Wimbledon where she is 5-time champion.

Kim Clijsters retired this year.  Despite a respectable match-winning percentage, her farewell tour felt like more of a whimper than a chorus.  She looked to be in serious contention in Australia, making the SF in her title defense, but the rest of the year fizzled.  She played her last singles match in the 2R (to Laura Robson) of her beloved US Open, scene of 3 triumphs for her, and where she hadn’t lost since 2003.  She seemed the only credible threat to Serena on the tour and she will be missed.  She turns 30 in 2013, so this retirement is likely permanent.

Francesca Schiavone seems finally to be succumbing to age at 32 – she’s actually 6 days younger than Venus – and fell to #35 after finishing at #11 and #7 the last two years.

More puzzling is the descent of Svetlana Kuznetsova who ends the year at #72.  She’s only 27 and could very well have 2 or 3 prime years left.  But after 5 top 10 finishes between 2004 and 2009 (#2 in 2007, #3 in 2009) she seems to be sinking gently to a resting place on the ocean’s bottom.  Part of the reason could be a knee injury that meant she played only one match after the French Open.  However she was already ranked only 35 then, so the cause of her malaise is difficult to pinpoint.  Her abundant talent translated into two slam titles (USO 2004, Fre 2009).  Hopefully she can come back to us in her 20’s while there is still time.

An even more dramatic descent has befallen Vera Zvonareva who finished 2011 at #7 and 2010 at #2.  She retired from the Olympics with breathing issues and hasn’t played since.  She’s currently at 95 on the computer and 28 years old.  She was still ranked 14 at the time of her last match – a 60 61 demolition at the hands of Serena.  Hopefully she returns to play soon.

Young Guns

A few names leap out as having significant future potential.

Sloane Stephens (#38, age 19) really made her mark in Miami when she won 4 rounds out of qualifying to make 3R, taking down Errani, and eventually succumbing to Sharapova.  She continued to mature with 4R at the French and 3R at Wimbledon and the US Open.  She has an explosive game but needs to work on consistency.  She should move up the ranks in 2013 and a QF or even SF at a slam is not out of the question.

Laura Robson (#53, age 18) is the highest ranked 18 year old.  She seemed to grow by leaps and bounds in the last third of the year, starting with a 4R showing at the US Open that included victories over Kim Clijsters and Li Na.  She then made the final in Guangzhou and QF in Osaka, finishing the year 12-4 in her last 4 tournaments.  Like Stephens, a QF or SF finish at a slam is possible.

Timea Babos (#64, age 19) continues her steady climb up the rankings.  She’s improved nearly 90 spots from last year:  2011 - #153, 2010 - #329, 2009 - #700.  At this rate she should be inside the top 30 by next year.

Donna Vekic (#118, age 16) outranks all other 16 and 17 year olds.  She burst onto the scene with her run from qualifying to the final of Tashkent, winning 7 straight matches and garnering 216 WTA points.  This far outstrips her other performances for the year pointswise and may be inflating her ranking.  But encouragingly, she did make the finals of 6 events she played (mostly ITF events), winning two of them.  For a 16 year old this is a remarkable accomplishment and is a good early predictor of future success.  She’s 5’10” which will help her in today’s big game.  I’ll be looking to see if she makes top 50 next year.

Yulia Putintseva (#121, age 17) is the top ranking 17 year old.  She is visibly talented and has been noticed and mentioned by Chris Evert.  Unfortunately, she is only 5’2” and this will make it hard for her to compete with bigger, stronger players.  She’ll need all of her talent if she is to make it to the top 50.

Madison Keys (#149, age 17) – her biggest results were playing through to the 2R of Miami from qualifying and taking the ITF title in Saguenay, Canada.  I expect she may make 70 or 80 in the rankings next year.

18-year olds to watch:  Annika Beck #86, Saisai Zheng #141, Elina Svitolina #148, Jessica Pegula #155, Eugenie Bouchard #160, Grace Min #184, Anna-Lena Friedsam #190, Kateryna Kozlova #195

17-year olds to watch:  Irina Kromacheva #176, Carina Witthoeft #208, Samantha Crawford #288

16-year olds to watch:  Ashleigh Barty #195, Hibi Mayo #422, Taylor Townsend #676

The first 15-year olds don’t show up in the rankings till about the 600’s, which is almost meaningless, but here are the first three:  Francoise Abanda #610, Belinda Bencic #620, Nadia Podoroska #658.

Rankings

Last year I ranked the top players with a comparative system based on matches won, winning percentage, tournaments won, GS tournaments won, GS matches won, and GS winning percentage.  This year I added WTA points/tournament.  Without reproducing the vast spreadsheet, the results were

1.  Serena Williams – 77 points
2.  Victoria Azarenka – 57 points
3.  Maria Sharapova – 53 points
4.  Petra Kvitova – 24 points
5.  Sara Errani – 23 points
6.  Agnieszka Radwanska – 21 points
7.  Angelique Kerber – 15 points
8.  Li Na – 7 points
8.  Kim Clijsters – 7 points
10. Ana Ivanovic – 6 points

I’m pretty satisfied with the top 3, but after that I feel the need to rearrange to more closely reflect the computer rankings.

Here’s a summary of my rankings, WTA rankings, and my projection for next yearend.  (Last year’s ranking in brackets.)

Charles’ 2012 Ranking	WTA 2012 Ranking	Charles 2013 Projection
1. Serena Williams (8)	1. Victoria Azarenka (3)	1. Serena Williams (1)
2. Victoria Azarenka (5)	2. Maria Sharapova (4)	2. Victoria Azarenka (3)
3. Maria Sharapova (7)	3. Serena Williams (12)	3. Maria Sharapova (5)
4. Agnieszka Radwanska ()	4. Agnieszka Radwanska (8)	4. Petra Kvitova (2)
5. Petra Kvitova (1)	5. Angelique Kerber (32)	5. Agnieszka Radwanska ()
6. Sara Errani ()	6. Sara Errani (45)	6. Li Na (8)
7. Angelique Kerber ()	7. Li Na (5)	7. Caroline Wozniacki (6)
8. Li Na (3)	8. Petra Kvitova (2)	8. Sara Errani ()
9. Samantha Stosur (6)	9. Samantha Stosur (6)	9. Angelique Kerber ()
10. Caroline Wozniacki (2)	10. Caroline Wozniacki (1)	10. Samantha Stosur (7)

Two slams, the Olympics, and the yearend championships and the WTA computer STILL does not rank Serena #1.  I realize they are trying to encourage lots of tournament participation with their current ranking formula, but it is clearly out of touch.  Serena won the 5^th most matches on the circuit this year, so she can’t be accused of playing too light a schedule.   Maybe the WTA should rank on average points per tournament and make the divisor range from 12-16…

Looking at projections for next year’s grand slam events I am including projections for the top 12 at each event.

	Charles AusOpen	Charles French	Charles Wimbledon	Charles USOpen
1	SWilliams	SWilliams	SWilliams	SWilliams
2	Azarenka	Sharapova	Azarenka	Azarenka
3	Sharapova	Stosur	Kvitova	Sharapova
4	Kvitova	Kvitova	Sharapova	Kvitova
5	ARadwanska	Azarenka	ARadwanska	ARadwanska
6	Li	ARadwanska	Lisicki	Kerber
7	Kerber	Kerber	Kerber	Stosur
8	Errani	Errani	VWilliams	Wozniacki
9	Wozniacki	Li	Li	VWilliams
10	VWilliams	Wozniacki	Bartoli	Errani
11	Stosur	Cibulkova	Wozniacki	Li
12	Ivanovic	Schiavone	Robson	Bartoli

There’s nothing too shocking in my predictions.  I think Laura Robson could make some noise at Wimbledon.  I tried to fit Sloane Stephens in somewhere, but overall I thought the other women were too strong. 

The bookies projections for 2013 are the average of all bookies reporting on 4 Nov 2012 at bookies.com.

	Bookies AusOpen	Bookies Aus Odds	Bookies French	Bookies Fre Odds	Bookies Wimbled	Bookies Wim Odds	Bookies USOpen	Bookies US Odds
1	SWilliams	2.53	SWilliams	4.20	SWilliams	2.55	SWilliams	2.62
2	Azarenka	4.09	Azarenka	4.31	Azarenka	6.10	Azarenka	4.32
3	Sharapova	7.85	Sharapova	5.19	Sharapova	6.19	Sharapova	6.93
4	Kvitova	9.36	Kvitova	9.06	Kvitova	6.91	Kvitova	7.00
5	Li	20.27	Stosur	14.44	ARadwans	20.39	Kerber	16.86
6	Kerber	22.73	Li	16.44	Lisicki	26.78	Li	21.00
7	ARadwans	24.00	Kerber	20.83	Kerber	27.22	ARadwans	21.29
8	Stosur	25.64	ARadwans	23.67	Stosur	35.00	Stosur	21.29
9	Wozniacki	37.27	Errani	26.83	Li	44.11	Lisicki	39.00
10	VWilliams	60.89	Wozniacki	35.11	VWilliams	51.33	Barthel	40.67
11	Lisicki	64.45	Bartoli	50.89	Wozniacki	52.44	VWilliams	45.80
12	Bartoli	67.09	Lisicki	51.60	Bartoli	64.22	Bartoli	50.86

The bookies lack of certainty at the French mirrors my own; Serena is only the slightest of favourites.  We both think Venus can make some noise off clay this year. Their addition of Barthel at the US Open is unexpected.  If Serena gets injured again, Azarenka appears the heir apparent.  It will be interesting to see how much longer Serena can keep playing at such a high level.  She doesn’t seem to have a credible opponent.  I think it possible she is the greatest player of all time – she is playing in the era of deepest talent and continues to dominate it.

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[1] Not fully documented