2010 Preview of Men’s Tennis – 30 Nov 2010
What a year 2009 was. Nadal won a hardcourt Major. Federer won the French and took the outright lead in career GS titles with 15. A new Major champion was crowned at the US Open; and Davydenko finally came through at a really big venue – the yearend WTF. 2009 was a momentous year for men’s tennis. What does it all mean for 2010? Realistically, your guess is as good as mine, so here’s my guess...
Roger Federer
2009 was a year of many milestones for Federer, of which the birth of his daughters was probably most significant to him. In the tennis world, the victory at the French and completion of the career slam elevated him to GOAT status in most fans minds. The Wimbledon victory only cemented that view. He is yearend #1 on the computer again – the first 28-year old to accomplish that task but still a year younger than Agassi and Lendl who were 29 at the ends of 1999 and 1989, respectively. But can we expect more GS trophies and records from Federer in 2010?
He will be seeded #1 at the Aus Open, but of the non-clay court slams he has struggled more there than elsewhere, if 3 titles from 4 finals can be called struggling. However the field is getting increasingly deep, and Federer is not as dominant as he was at his peak in 2005-06. In 2009 Federer managed only 4 titles, same as 2008. Despite the French-Wimby double he finishes the year with slightly fewer ranking points than 2008 – in fact Federer’s 2009 points would have put him at 3rd in 2008 behind Nadal and Djokovic. Nadal lost more than 4000 points from yearend 2008. So chalk one up for Federer’s consistency, but the shortage of titles tells us it’s getting increasingly difficult for Federer to win.
Although it’s a full grown and fully counting slam, the Aus Open doesn’t have the same mystique as the others. No one has (yet) laboured mightily to capture that last elusive AO title, the way the US title was to Borg, or Wimbledon to Lendl, or the French to Sampras (and recently, Federer). Throw in a slowish hardcourt surface and in many ways it’s the most neutral Major. Looking at the top 5, it would be easy to make a case for any of them to be the favourite. Given that depth, I don’t like Federer’s chances – it’s probably better than 1 in 5, but only by a hair.
Moving to the French, I’m guessing that Federer may be only the 4th best player on clay in 2010. Djokovic showed significant improvement last year and seems to have recovered from his demoralizing loss in Madrid. Del Potro continues to improve, seemingly by the hour, and has shown proclivity for the surface. And of course Nadal has to lead the parade. Still, given his record, it’s hard to predict against Federer reaching any Major final.
Grass is probably the surface that gives Federer the most neck over his rivals. Roddick and Nadal seem the only ones capable of some serious conversing at Wimbledon. Despite all the trouble Nadal has given him, my money is still on the Fed by a whisker.
The US Open, like the Aus, is likely to be an open playground. Overall I think Federer likely to cop one GS title in 2010 – zero or two would be surprising, although not very. Retaining the #1 ranking, however, is likely to be more difficult and TMF will have to improve on 4 titles to have a shot – which I doubt he will do. At this stage in his career, I’d expect Federer’s best performances to come at the four Majors.
Rafael Nadal
Rafa seemed headed for Federesque (2006-ish) dominance after the first 5 months of 2009 – five titles including a Major, and all before the French. Then the knees buckled. In the end, I’m not sure that Nadal’s post-US run was particularly weak for him – it’s never been his best time of year and he seems to favour playing outdoors. Once the Major season starts in the Aussie sun and wind, I expect Nadal to be well-rested and back in title contention for all of 2010’s grand slam events. Some of the main contenders like Murray, Djokovic, and even Soderling and Davydenko, seem to have their best results indoors, so the adverse and variable conditions sometimes presented by the slams actually seem to favour Nadal.
Of course Nadal must be favoured at the French: he is arguably the best claycourter of all time – Borg fans may detract. And he seems to have an incredible knack for Wimbledon. It would be fascinating to see another Fedal final, with two 13-match Wimbledon win streaks on the line.
Having conquered Wimbledon and the Australian in successive years, how surprising would it be for Nadal to make it a hat-trick at the US Open and complete the career slam? I’d leave an edge to former champions Federer and Del Potro, but I’d give Nadal even odds with former finalists Murray and Djokovic.
In the end I’d be shocked if Nadal didn’t win at least one Major in 2010. Two or three are within the realm of possibility. Overall I’d expect his title output to be about the same as 2009 – five titles, and he should finish the year no worse than #2 in the rankings, with #1 a definite possibility.
Novak Djokovic
Nole had some really excellent runs in 2009. He had a wonderful patch in the spring that included two titles and three 1000 level finals; and after the USO he won 3 titles and suffered only two losses. Unfortunately, his runs did not come at the Majors where so much of the attention seems to be focussed. Was that just bad luck or is he suffering from mental laxity on the big occasions?
After his 2008 AO win, 2009 could be counted as Djokovic’s sophomore slump. Indeed, after holding #3 on the computer for 91 weeks, Djokovic surrendered it for a time to Murray in 2009 and then, frustratingly, had to witness Murray’s ascension to #2 after only 14 weeks. It must have been tempting to pout that it should have been him. But tennis is very meritocratic, and Novak proceeded to buckle down, work hard, and has positioned himself so that becoming #2 after Aus 2010 seems very likely. He is likely to lead Nadal by 700 or so points during the Australian Open.
But does he have another Major title in store for 2010? With a runnerup at USO 2007 and a title in Australia, the hardcourt slams seem his best chance. Problem is they are also the best surfaces of Del Potro and Murray, and Federer and Nadal ain’t to bad on ‘em either. Pundits muse that Djo has not thriven in long best-of-five matches. He seems to have the talent and desire to win more slams, but the top is crowded in 2010. I give him almost a 50-50 chance to gain another GS title in 2010, plus, even if he plays well, he’s going to have to fight like crazy to hang on to #3 for another year.
Andy Murray
With a league-leading 6 titles in 2009, Murray is in danger of joining Marcelo Rios as the only man to have lead the yearend title count and never win a Major. 2009 was supposed to be Murray’s year. He was hyped to take Djokovic’s lead and follow-up his USO runnerup performance with a title in Australia. Even the usually conservative bookies had him as the favourite in January 2009. With many strong performances throughout the year, and having claimed the #2 ranking in August, he was again picked by many analysts to triumph at the US Open. All for nought. He ended 2009 spared a fall to #5 by a whisker, courtesy of Davydenko’s defeat of Del Potro in the WTF final.
Andre Agassi said Murray is too good not to win a major. But will it happen in 2010? Aside from his US final, his best performances in the majors are a QF at the French and a QF and a SF at Wimbledon. He is likely a distant fourth on grass after Federer, Roddick, and Nadal, so he is probably right in the self-assessment that his best chance is at the US Open. But the company of superlative hardcourt games is dense in this epoch, so, as for Federer, I rate Murray’s chances at about 1 in 5 at the US and probably the same in Australia.
Despite a superlative year and the year’s best W-L percentage (85.7), pundits will likely be more cautious about proclaiming him a pre-tournament favourite anytime soon. Hopefully he has not gone Safina and is wanting it too much. While intensity is generally good, over-intensity will only add unnecessary pressure when calm detachment is required on the court.
As I did for Djokovic, I give him about a 50-50 chance to win a Major. There is no doubt he is hungry –his biological tennis clock has got to be gonging. Will he harness that hunger? I expect him to be in a dogfight with Djokovic for #4 by year’s end.
Juan Martin Del Potro
A new champion was crowned in 2009. By the time the US Open rolled around, people were starting to predict that JMDP could win it. But few expected that at the beginning of the year. For 2010, a sophomore slump could be expected, even forgiven; and with a very sub-par, default-ridden post-US run, it looked to be where the Elf was heading. (Could this six and a half foot giant be further from an elf?!) But he rallied heartily for the yearend championships (I wish they’d go back to the simple “Masters” title), and came within a match of snatching the #4 yearend spot from Murray.
How far will he go in 2010? He seems to have boundless ambition and said in a recent interview he wanted to be “like Federer.” He’s got lots of talent, too. His ground strokes are ferocious and he covers the court well. He became the first man to beat Federer and Nadal in a Major with his US title.
I expect he will win at least one major next year, with a US repeat being most likely. He should feature strongly at the Aus Open and a victory at the French would not be a shock either. Except for Sampras and Agassi, all men who have won at least 6 Major titles in the Open era (post 1968) have followed up their first win with a title defence or a second Major no later than the following year. I suspect JMDP will be in that group. In fact, I think he will become the first Argentine to gain the #1 spot on the computer, and it would not surprise me if it happened in 2010.
Second Billing
Nikolay Davydenko
After a run of 203 weeks, Davydenko fell out of the top 10 in April after battling a foot injury that did not allow him to defend his title in Miami. But he returned refreshed and won a career best 5 titles in 2009 (same as 2006) including victory at the Masters, YEC, SEC, or WTF it is called now. Arguably his biggest victory, although Miami was once billed as the “Fifth Major,” he was impressive in taking down all the GS champs of 2009, including a first ever victory over Federer. At 28 he is the second, and oldest, man to rank in the yearend top 10 for five consecutive years without a GS title in his career. Could it portend grand slam laurels for him in 2010? It hasn’t (yet) for David Nalbandian.
Despite some big victories and a seeming improvement to his game in 2009, he drops one spot in the yearend rankings to #6. In 2006, Federer and Nadal were the ‘big boys’ and Davydenko was #3. In 2007, Djokovic joined the party at the top and Davydenko was #4. 2008 brought Murray and #5 for Kolya, and 2009 has seen the emergence of Del Potro. Davydenko always seems to be just outside the top echelon.
Maybe if there were an indoor Major he might have a chance, but as it stands the field is just too deep. Kolya has lovely, clean strokes, and when he’s on he looks unbeatable. Perhaps his margin for error is low or the pressure gets between his ears, because despite 9 QF appearances at grand slams, 4 of which became SF showings, he has not managed to push into a final. Granted he’s playing in a pretty tough era, but he has shown he has the game to beat anyone, but just hasn’t done it yet on the best-of-five grand slam stage. He is a late bloomer and amazingly seems to be still improving at a doddering 28. Maybe he will pull off another miracle in 2010...
Andy Roddick
Tennis’ A-Rod had a stellar first half in 2009. He switched coaches, lost 10 pounds, won Memphis, made semis at the Australian and Indian Wells, and came within a heart-breaking tickle of the Wimbledon title. Tickle it did not. It was more like a sucker punch. He lost in his next two tournaments to Del Potro, and ended the year winning only 2 more matches – forever banishing further speculations on the Big Six.
By the time 2010 rolls around, Roddick should have had plenty of time to lick his wounds and regroup. Despite being a year younger than Federer, so dismal was the last half of 2009, it is hard to escape the feeling that the window of opportunity has closed for Roddick. He still has a chance at Wimbledon, if he can ever get over the intestine-chilling trauma of his last match there. There is a good chance his 9-year tournament run (at least one per year) and his 8-year string of top-10 finishes will both come to an end in 2010. Hopefully he proves me wrong.
Robin Soderling
Soderling was the lightning bolt surprise of 2009 – even more than JMDP’s US victory. After seeming a permanent fixture in the world’s top 20, he shocked everyone with the Nadal upset at the French Open. He proceeded to follow it up with some very solid results and played well enough and/or had the bad luck to face Federer in the last three Majors of the year. His defeats of Djokovic and Nadal in the WTF and yearend #8 finish were proof of his ‘new look.’
But is he the real deal? At 25 he is at the typical peak for male tennis players. However there are no hard and fast rules. Lendl peaked in his late 20’s, Davydenko seems to be a late bloomer , so no reason Robin couldn’t continue to improve. Still, I think he will be hard-pressed to match the highs of 2009. Another GS final would be a real accomplishment for him, but with only 4 career titles to his credit, winning one seems like a stretch. He’s shown he’s full of surprises, so who knows. If he continues to play well, he should hang onto his spot in the top 10.
Fernando Verdasco
Another top-20 perennial, Verdasco stunned at the AO with upsets of Murray and Tsonga, followed by a nail-biting five-set loss to Nadal. That vaulted him into the top 10 for the rest of the year, with the exception of a rogue week in August. After Australia he demonstrated industrial consistency by posting 5 straight QF showings at 1000-level tournaments, crowning the season with a title in New Haven and a QF at USO. Although this was a break-out year for him, at age 26 he is unlikely to progress much further. He has shown little aptitude for the latter stages of Majors. Another top 10 finish is not out of reach, although not necessarily expected.
Playing Off-Broadway
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
How different might the world look if the outcome between the first-time GS finalists of AO 2008 had gone the other way? Perhaps Tsonga would be rounding out the Big Six? Probably not, confidence and momentum are big, but tennis players usually ‘find their level.’ Although he’s 24, Tsonga has played only 10 GS tournaments. Twice he has made the QF, and one of those turned into a runnerup performance. He leaves the impression there are more songs in his repertoire, but predicting when we will be treated to a concert seems almost random. I resolve to expect the unexpected from Tsonga in 2010. I hope that doesn’t mean a finish below the top 10, or worse.
Marin Cilic
The kid has got talent. So goes the mantra. Everyone keeps predicting he’s about to break through to the top. His year end rankings since 2006: 170, 71, 23, 14. Project that exponentially, and he hits the top 10 next year at around #8. But plot it as a polynomial and he drops back to 50. He seems to still be improving. Players winning more than 6 GS titles in their careers have their first yearend top 10 finish at about 19 years old, on average. Players winning at least one GS title average about 21 years old for their first top 10 finish. If he finishes top 10 next year, Cilic will be 22. The odds are not with him. Still, he’s good enough, apparently, to defy the odds. Top 10 should be within reach, a GS title at some point in his career might be a possibility.
Gael Monfils
How many talented, erratic, French tennis players can you fit on the head of a pin? We’re awash in Tsonga, Gasquet, Simon, and now Monfils. Let’s not forget Grosjean, Clement, Pioline, Forget, and Leconte. The last one to win a Major was Noah in 1983, and he was the first French man to win one in 37 years. So we should be due for another in 2020. Despite gobs of talent, I cannot envision Monfils focussing for 2 whole weeks at a slam. Granted it’s easy to sit here and be harshly critical, but it LOOKS like he’s got the natural ability to pull it off. One wonders about the head. At some point he should cop a biggish win, maybe a 1000 event, and spend some time in the top 10. Good chance it will be next year. We shall see...
The Round-up
Gilles Simon has had his day in the sun. Ditto Fernando Gonzalez, Tommy Robredo, and Tommy Haas. Expect more of the same from them. In fact most of the 11-20 pack seem to match that description: Radek Stepanek, David Ferrer, Mikhail Youzhny – even Tomas Berdych seems to have stopped surprising. We have to look down to yearend #25 to see some unexplored promise in the name of Sam Querrey. Making the top 10 would be a real achievement for him. Further unknowns lie in the potential comebacks of Richard Gasquet and David Nalbandian. Both have shown the goods to beat anyone, so hopefully they will return to add drama to the upper echelon of the game.
GS Summary
Despite any possibly contradictory statements above there are only 4 GS titles up for grabs in 2010. Here’s my top 6 list (in order) for each Major in 2010:
Australian Open – Del Potro, Federer, Djokovic, Murray, Nadal, Davydenko
French Open – Nadal, Del Potro, Federer, Djokovic, Murray, Soderling
Wimbledon – Federer, Nadal, Roddick, Murray, Djokovic, Del Potro
US Open – Del Potro, Federer, Nadal, Murray, Djokovic, Davydenko
2010 Yearend Top 10 Projection
1 Del Potro
2 Nadal
3 Federer
4 Djokovic
5 Murray
6 Davydenko
7 Cilic
8 Soderling
9 Roddick
10 Monfils
We are in a time of tantalizing possibilities at the top of the game. Can Federer continue to perform at the top? Will Nadal regain his best form? How far and how fast will Del Potro climb? Will Djokovic win another Major? Can Murray win even one? What undiscovered talents will rise toward the top in 2010? You’ve seen my guesses.
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