US Open 2011 Men - 26 Aug 2011

US Open 2011 Men

This has been Novak’s year.  But either his shoulder or his mental state in retiring last week against Murray look like a major chink in the armour.  Who can take advantage?

First Quarter

The first seed Novak Djokovic could face is #32 Ivan Dodig.  Dodig looked fantastic knocking off Nadal in Montreal, but will have his hands full trying to get out of the first round against Davydenko.  Neither should pose any real threat to Novak.  The 4^th round could bring up #13 Gasquet who has had some hot moments this summer.  The other seed here Dolgopolov #22 has been cool since his hot run to start the year.  If Novak’s shoulder is healthy, and I suspect it will be, he should sail to the quarter with his head intact.  There the two highest seeds are the surge-sputter-surge artists, Monfils #7 and Berych #9.  Both have shown some fine results this summer.  Both are great athletes and either could beat Djokovic, although I’d give better odds to Berdych to see it through.  With a day of rest between each match, the head is more likely to cause problems for Djokovic than the shoulder.  Defaulting in Montreal could be a sign of caving under the pressure of expectations or it could refresh him and make him hungry again.

Djokovic d Berdych

Second Quarter

The way Federer #3 has been playing this summer, winning this quarter would be a surprise.  His draw is full of landmines, including, again, Tsonga #11.  Federer could be troubled by Sela or Bellucci in 2R.  Two years ago that would have been unthinkable, but this year, a 2R loss is comprehensible.  The third round could bring up Tomic, Harrison, or Cilic – all of whom could beat the acclaimed GOAT.  The 4R actually looks less scary with Stepanek #23 and Troicki #15 both capable of troubling the Express, but if he makes it this far he should gain the quarters where he will likely fall to Tsonga or Fish #8.  Fish is the big question mark here.  Will he retain the spectacular form he’s displayed this summer?

Fish def Federer

Third Quarter

At first glance Murray #4 appears to have the easiest quarter.  Seeds Lopez #25, Chela #24, and Wawrinka #14 look unlikely to slow his progress to the QF, until we remember that he was spectacularly upset here last year by none other than Wawrinka.  Stan has not looked his best this summer and I expect that if The Man does survive along enough to set up a rematch it will be a case of revenge for Murray.  Highest seeds on the other side include Simon (streaky this summer) and Soderling (is he beginning his descent out of the top 10?), both of whom Murray SHOULD beat.  The dark horse is, of course, Del Potro #18.  The first two rounds should serve as a nice warm-up for the Argentine.  The test could come in 3R against Simon.  If Delpo can survive that he has a very good chance of facing Murray for a spot in the semi.  It could be a blockbuster, but it seems that the Elf has not fully rediscovered his self-belief.

Murray def Del Potro

Fourth Quarter

Only the most devoted Rafalite could think that Nadal has anything but the easiest draw of the Big 4.  Ljubicic #30, Youzhny #16, Almagro #10, Roddick #21, and Ferrer #5 have pestered Nadal in the past (ok, not Almagro), but this year, at this time, none look like credible threats to the GOAT candidate.  Ljubicic, Youzhny, and Roddick are all on the decline and fellow-Spaniards Almagro and Ferrer, while solid, determined, and reliable, are no match for Nadal’s genius.

The problem with this line of thinking is that Nadal has been troughing all summer.  The loss to Fish was somewhat respectable, but Dodig?!?  Ferrer has beaten Nadal before at the US Open and this year at the Australian.  But Nadal is a big match player and he will have lots of time to work his way into form for a potential encounter with Ferrer in the QF.

Nadal def Ferrer

Semis

If Djokovic is playing mind games with himself, the semis and final are likely where they will become troublesome.  Facing Fish or Federer, or even Berdych, could cause self-doubt for Djokovic but I expect he will dig deep for the fortitude to reach his 3^rd US Open final.  If Fish plays well he could make a match of it – he was close in Montreal – but ultimately Novak has too much fire power.

Djokovic def Fish

Hopefully my crystal ball is working and we are tantalized with Nadal vs Murray.  Nadal is the defending champion and I expect that at some point he should be able to tap into last year’s form.  Will his big serve show up?  With Murray the question is much more about the head.  He’s got crazy variety and talent – can he harness his petulance and think clearly enough during a difficult match to accept responsibility for his unforced errors and problem-solve his way through?  There are enough question marks around both players to make this very tough to call.

Murray def Nadal

Final

If it weren’t for the puzzling default in Montreal, Djokovic would be an easy pick.  If he faces anyone besides Murray in the final, I’ll pick Djokovic, but maybe just maybe Murray has gotten into Djokovic’s head.  On the other hand, Djokovic has shown the ability and confidence to rise to the biggest of occasions and Murray has instead crumpled.  Can Murray turn it around?

Djokovic def Murray

Average odds from bookies.com 25 Aug 2011

1	Djokovic, N	2.36
2	Nadal, R	4.90
3	Murray, A	5.78
4	Federer, R	6.26
5	Del Potro, JM	15.25
6	Tsonga, JW	30.06
7	Fish, M	30.56
8	Söderling, R	46.75
9	Berdych, T	49.13
10	Roddick, A	87.06
11	Raonic, M	117.57
12	Monfils, G	118.38
13	Isner, J	129.31
14	Ferrer, D	141.50
15	Cilic, M	157.50
16	Gasquet, R	158.69
17	Verdasco, F	169.94
18	Gulbis, E	189.63
19	Tomic, B	192.87
20	Wawrinka, S	207.29
21	Simon, G	216.21
22	Dolgopolov, A	231.20
23	Nalbandian, D	235.56
24	Davydenko, N	240.87