2010 Analysis and 2011 Preview of Women’s Tennis – 2 Nov 2010
Who is number 1 for 2010 in women’s tennis? Yearend number one has been unclear or disputed repeatedly in the last decade and a half – 10 of the last 12 years by my count. This year the computer says it is Caroline Wozniacki. Yet she has not advanced past the semifinal of any grand slam in 2010. Based on record in the majors, the logical choice is Serena Williams who won in Melbourne and Wimbledon . But Serena played only six tournaments this year before injuring her foot. Can her accomplishments over just half a year really make her #1 for the whole year?
Few would disagree that Serena played the best tennis this year. I suspect that every other tennis player on the tour would trade their 2010 titles for Serena’s two, so Serena gets my vote for number one of the year. But how will she fare next year? Will she come back successfully from injury? In the year in which she turns thirty CAN she come back?
What about her sister and the Belgians? Will they threaten her? Or maybe the Serbs, or the host of Russians, and what about that talented Dane…
Serena Williams
In a way it’s encouraging that Serena’s injury is not a repetitive stress injury or chronic condition due to over training, bad form, or the rigours of tour life. It was a simple slip and some broken glass. Unfortunate to be sure, but there is hope for recovery and not the career-inhibiting disabling experienced by Maria Sharapova, requiring her to change the strokes that took her to major championship titles. Still it’s alarming that it has taken so long for Serena to return.
Hopefully she can come back at full strength and continue to challenge for majors the way she always has. She certainly shows the desire to do so – a pleasant change from the mid-00’s when she played a light schedule and it seemed she might drift away from the game.
In terms of major title output, Serena is still ahead of Navratilova at the same age and could well match the count of 18 slams that both Navratilova and Evert accumulated. Serena has won both the Australian and Wimbledon the last two years and because of timing, preference, surface, or whatever reasons she would seem the favourite again for both titles.
At the French, Serena has been decidedly less stellar. Last year she made noise about wanting to augment her lone French title – and what Serena wants she usually gets. Although her game is not optimized for clay she must be considered one of the favourites.
At the US Open, Serena will probably be bookies favourite again, with Clijsters a very close second. The calendar year Grand Slam is not out of reach for Serena, but is not likely. Away from the slams, expect less intensity from her and few if any titles. Exceptions might be Miami
Barring injury, I’d expect Serena to rise to #1 again on the computer in addition to her unofficial status as the best in the game. Taking a longer, historical view debate is sure to gather about whether Serena is the GOAT, greatest of all time.
She does not have the most slam titles, the most dominating match winning percentage, or the longest tenure at #1. But the depth of the competition she has faced is probably unparalleled and her ability on the court may be unmatched.
Comparisons with past greats are difficult. Helen Wills Moody made the finals of all 22 grand slam events she entered, winning 19 of them, and was undefeated for about 7 years. Suzanne Lenglen won all the majors from which she didn’t default and was also undefeated for multiple years. But the competition they faced in the 1920’s and 30’s was vastly more shallow than women’s professional tennis boasts today. Likewise for Maureen Connolly in the 50’s who won the first female Grand Slam and 9 majors on the trot.
Even when we get to the 60’s and the amazing feats of Margaret Smith Court , we must install some asterisks. Even though Court won a record 24 slam singles titles (and 62 including doubles and mixed), eleven of those were Australian titles won from small and generally weak fields. For example, even though Court won her first Australian title in 1960, that same year she lost in the final of the Australian junior event: which means the ‘open’ (to all ages) event was not much stronger than the junior event. How much more difficult is it to win an Australian Open now? (Much, much more difficult!)
Even at the beginning of the open era in the days of Billie Jean King and Chris Evert, the competition was much less deep than today. Then there were hundreds of players trying to make it on the professional circuit. Now there are thousands. The pool is 10 times deeper and so is the talent. It makes dominating that much more difficult.
Serena’s place in history is not yet determined. Will she be judged ahead of Steffi Graf and Martina Navratilova? The jury is still out. What does Serena have left to show us?
Kim Clijsters
Kim is arguably the second best player of 2010, despite the #3 ranking. Her US Open defense rarely seemed in jeopardy, although the absence of Serena was significant, to be sure. For opponents she was likely the second scariest player to face in 2010, after Serena; but her year featured some real flat spots in addition to the highs.
Coming off the US Open victory in 2009, expectations were high for her at the Australian, so a 3rd round loss was definitely disappointing. She rebounded with a title in Miami Wimbledon was a decent though not spectacular result. All was forgiven during the summer hardcourt season that saw her nab a 3rd USO title. Clijsters has not lost at the US Open since 2003 when she was a finalist. The last time she played and lost before the final was 2002. So she must be considered a strong favourite for a 4th title, eclipsed only, perhaps, by Serena who lost her cool in 2009 and couldn’t play in 2010.
Winning a major in Melbourne , Paris , or New York Wimbledon is not outside of the realm of possibility, but it would probably require the absence or upsets of both Williams sisters to become reality.
Her five titles in 2010 are second highest among the women. Although she has not demonstrated the consistency to win 8 or 9 titles in a year the way she did before her first retirement, she seems to be settling into a higher level of play and could again start to rack up the title count in 2011.
Caroline Wozniacki
The computer yearend #1 lead the tour in titles won, matches won, matches played, and… hmmm, well those are fine accomplishments…
Caroline seems to be at her best on hardcourts and had her best slam result at the USO, making the semifinals. She also racked up a stunning post-Wimbledon record match record of 33-4, and captured 6 titles for the year.
Her record against her top rivals however has been sodden: 0-2 against Serena, 0-4 against Venus, 0-2 against Clijsters, 0-1 against Henin, 1-2 against Sharapova. Her failure to capture a slam title before age 20 suggests she will not achieve many (any, perhaps) slam titles in her career, although the rule is not universal; notable exceptions include Martina Navratilova and Billie Jean King.
Nevertheless, the path for Wozniacki has been one of steady improvement and the yearend #1 ranking is a significant accomplishment. All that’s left on her to-do list is that first Major title.
I expect that she will wear the #1 mantle with less anxiety than did Jankovic and Safina – although the pressure to cop that first slam and ‘justify’ the ranking is sure to become immense. Staying at the top is tougher than getting there. How she handles the pressure of the next 6 months will be revealing and may well chart the course of her career.
The Aus or US opens are likely her best bets at a first Major win. Melbourne Australia
Prognosis at the USOpen is slightly better based on Wozniacki’s best results there (RU, SF) although how to wrest the title away from Clijsters or Serena seems beyond Caroline’s ken at this point.
Overall, I don’t expect Wozniacki to find her way to a slam title, although she is most likely to get one if the other contenders all calve. She may well hang on to #1 for most of the year and win a slew of minor tournaments. Is she interim #1 until the next major talent comes along, or will she herself develop into that talent? Is she Chris Evert or Manuela Maleeva-Fragniere?
Venus Williams
Venus match winning record is actually quite good for 2010 at 0.844 and she is tied for 3rd in tournament wins for the year (at 2, with a host of others). But her accomplishments are somewhat distorted because she played only 9 tournaments. She would probably be ranked higher than #5 by the computer if she had been able to play a full schedule. How much injury will affect her in 2011 is anyone’s guess.
Suspicion that she may retire in the year of her 31st birthday is probably unjustified. She still seems to have lots of ability, hunger, and enjoyment for the game.
Based on her playing ability she is probably the 3rd or 4th least desirable opponent for the other women, but based on her accomplishments in 2010 I’d rate her 6th overall.
Justine Henin
At the end of 2009 I hoped that 2010 would see many battles between the Williams sisters and the Belgians. It seemed incredible that Serena and Justine, having then won 18 GS titles between them had never faced each other in a Major final. That wish was granted at the Australian, but fizzled for the rest of the year as both players sustained injuries.
Surprisingly, Henin finishes the year around #13 in the official rankings despite playing only 9 tournaments and missing the last half of the year. That fact is witness to her high standard of play. Her return to a grand slam final in only her second tournament back was at least as surprising as Clijsters’ comeback success and only the mighty Serena could upend her.
Murmurs that the injury setback might derail her comeback, though unsubstantiated, may not be empty. I’m hoping that 2010 was just a warmup. If she returns it will be evidence of a strong desire to compete and will be reassurance that we will have her for at least another few years.
There is no tournament she could not win, but among the majors the French, where she is 4-time champion, seems most likely. What she has not shown in her comeback is the ability to beat the top players. That final hurdle will need to be crossed in 2011 if she is to fulfill her dream of winning Wimbledon .
I expect that 2011 will be better for her on the court than 2010 was and consider her the favourite at Roland Garros.
Vera Zvonareva
Maria Sharapova may still have more star power, but the best Russian for the year was Zvonareva. She made her first and second grand slam finals at Wimbledon and the US Open, respectively. Is this a sign of things to come or was this her peak?
If she maintains her recent high standard of play for at least the first four or so months of 2011, Vera could gain the #1 computer ranking. That would be a remarkable accomplishment for someone who most had written off several years ago as past her peak and hopelessly emotionally fragile.
It’s hard to know what kind of fire burns inside Zvonareva. Does she have the all-consuming desire and steely focus necessary to triumph on the slam stage? Based on her age, one suspects she is near or has slightly passed her peak. It would not surprise me if she never again attained the heights of 2010.
She will likely win some more premier tournaments and I hope she proves me wrong and wins a slam someday. Any of the slams seem equally likely, or unlikely, for that accomplishment, with her record at the USO being slightly the best and at the AO slightly the worst.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see her drop slightly in the rankings by the end of 2011 from her current #2. Her peak may have passed but she could still win a major.
Francesca Schiavone
Defying all odds, Schiavone has had her breakout year at age 30. What’s next, a peak at age 35??
The exuberance and self-belief with which she sailed merrily to the French title were enough to melt the heart of any curmudgeon. She produced one of those beautiful moments in sports – victory by the underdog.
Surprisingly, she continued to play well, making the QF at the US Open and qualifying for the yearend championships. She is a joy to watch with great variety in her strokes from delicate slices and deft angles to round-house single-arm walloping backhands. Where has all this talent been hiding? She had seemed a permanent member of the top 20 – where she has danced for the last 7 years. It’s great to have her at the top of the game and I only hope we will get to see more of her flair at the latter stages of some big tournaments.
Purely statistically, we must consider the possibility that the height of her career has passed and that the French victory was the solar flare of a dying sun. But Francesca defies the odds. I won’t bill her as the consistency-pony and maybe it’s blind hope, but I think she may take us with her again in 2011 to some unexpected heights.
Samantha Stosur
I thought she was a doubles specialist. I completely wrote off her 2009 SF appearance at Roland Garros as a fluke. So needless to say, her fine form on clay in 2010 and runner-up at the French caught me totally by surprise. Yet if anyone did the heavy lifting at that tournament it was Stosur – taking down Henin, SWilliams, and Jankovic in succession. But in the final she looked nervous and fearful – a stark contrast to her vanquisher who was all smiles and laughter, even from the beginning of the match.
At some point Stosur decided that she could translate her doubles talent into singles success. It’s rare for a talent to show itself this late, but Stosur has made remarkable improvement over the last 2 years and 2011 could take her even higher, despite her age – she turns 27 in March.
If she’s going to succeed at the top level she would do well to take a page from the Schiavone book and learn to channel affirmation and joy instead of fear for big match situations. Easier said than done to be sure.
Her game would seem better suited to most surfaces other than clay, but it’s hard to argue with results, so her best results will likely come on the terre. That said, I don’t consider her a serious threat at any of the slams – perhaps she’ll prove me a slow learner. I would expect an International title or two from her in 2011 and maybe a SF at the slams.
Jelena Jankovic
Jankovic’s year featured a passable first half for a top player and a dismal finish. She won Indian Wells, made the final in Rome and semi in Paris
Jankovic turns 26 this year and may never again ascend to the heights in ranking (#1) and slam results (2008 US
Elena Dementieva
Dementieva surprised me by announcing her retirement at the yearend championships. Granted she’s 29 and has played on the main tour for 12 years, but I just didn’t see it coming. She still seems in her best form and a yearend finish of 9 doesn’t seem to indicate much decline. But knowing where the will or ambition lies is not always transparent so I wish her the best in her future endeavours.
Her year did not attain the heights of last year, especially at the slams where she made two SF in 2009 but only one this year at the French. Down to the last four, the field seemed ripe finally for her maiden slam title, so her retirement there was a heartbreaking last hurrah.
Victoria Azarenka
Azarenka seems to have the goods to take down the big names. Unlike Wozniacki who seems unable to beat the game’s elite, Azarenka has victories over Serena, Clijsters, Sharapova, Mauresmo, even Martina Hingis. But she lacks Wozniacki’s consistency. She’s also a year older than the Dane. Will Victoria
She had a disappointing year at the slams finishing in the QF in Australia Moscow
I could see her making a slam final in 2011 and winning a couple of tour events. Hopefully she doesn’t just repeat 2010 and then start to fade away. She’s young, her best days should be still to come.
Li Na
Li danced in and out of the top 10 a few times in 2010 spending a total of 16 weeks there. Li had a great run in Melbourne Birmingham Beijing China
For 2011 another slam SF run is possible if not likely and another tournament title or two are well within possibility.
Maria Sharapova
2010 was supposed to be the year of Sharapova’s comeback – so I thought. She won two minor tournaments early in the year and seemed to be rounding nicely into form for the American hardcourt season with finalist showings in Stanford and Cincinnati
Perhaps the loss to Wozniacki hurt her confidence or perhaps she has been distracted by her engagement to Sasha Vujacic. Since her return from shoulder surgery in 2009 she has not found the top form that took her to three grand slam titles.
For 2011 I’m hoping we see a return of the imperious Maria, slashing and screeching her way to titles. She turns 24 in April and should have a few good years left. A couple more titles and at least one slam SF should be in order for 2011.
Svetlana Kuznetsova
It is an indication of the depth in the women’s game that there are so many top contenders active on the roster. Some had good years, some did not.
After copping her second GS title in 2009, 2010 was a disaster for Kuznetsova. She emerged for a mid-season fling with a title in San Diego and a SF in Montreal
After winning the US Open in 2004, the future seemed bright and she proceeded to make the final of every 6th major after that featuring in French 2006, USO 2007, and French 2009. Next in line was USO 2010, but with that trend broken, one wonders if we have heard the last of her or if there is another song in her repertoire?
She has been inconsistent enough that a return to the top tier or another slam could not be considered a shock, but to be honest, I don’t expect it. I think we have seen the best of her stage show – maybe we’ll get a good encore – but at this point, more than a slam SF would be surprising.
Ana Ivanovic
After three Major finals and a title at the 2008 French, Ivanovic began to lose confidence and troughed in late 2009 and early 2010. Her rank had slipped to the low 50’s by March. But then, slowly, the renaissance began. She made the semis in Rome and Cincinnati and then rejoined the winner’s circle after a two-year hiatus with a title in Linz
Dinara Safina
Safina’s collapse has been even more dramatic than Ivanovic’s or Kuznetsova’s. The woman ranked #1 for most of 2009 and still at #3 in May had fallen to 70 by August. Safina slunk to a dreadful 13-16 win-loss record in 2010.
After holding on bravely to the #1 ranking for so long in 2009 she seemed to be displaying the mental fortitude to avoid critics’ reproaches about her lack of a slam title. But the house of cards collapsed rapidly in 6 consecutive losses. Let’s hope the current #1 does not succumb to the same pressure.
It’s hard to predict any way but up for Safina in 2011. Hopefully she can find her game and threaten the bastille again. A semi final anywhere would be a happy turn and should be within reach.
Honourable mentions
Several other players made some noise in 2010 and are worthy of mention.
Shahar Peer made 7 semi finals and posted a very respectable 47-21 record.
Agnieszka Radwanska hung around the top 10 for most of the year before being slowed by injury.
Nadia Petrova had some nice slam performances taking out Clijsters and Kuznetsova in Melbourne and Venus Williams in Paris
Aravane Rezai stunned the field in Madrid
Maria Kirilenko had her best year in the slams with victories over Sharapova and Safina in a QF showing in Melbourne , over defending champ Kuznetsova leading to a 4R performance in Paris , and 3rd rounders in Wimbledon and New York
Estonian Kaia Kanepi was ranked 140 in May before winning 7 consecutive matches out of the qualies at Wimbledon en route to a QF showing. She then followed it up with a title in Palermo
Kimiko Date Krumm didn’t move much in the rankings but continues to inspire, making the final in Osaka at age 40.
Youth
Looking to the future of the game, a few youngsters are showing early signs of promise, although predicting greatness is always hazardous. Ages given are as they would be at Dec 31, 2010.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, age 19, is already ranked in the top 20 and has shown some promising results claiming the title in Istanbul
Petra Kvitova, age 20, ranking mid-30’s, was very impressive in making the Wimbledon semis beating Wozniacki and Azarenka, and at 6 feet tall may not yet have found her full game. Top 10 potential.
Anastasija Sevastova, age 20, ranking mid-40’s, beat Jankovic, Ivanovic, and Stosur in 2010 and won Estoril. She may climb near the top 10 in her career and the top 20 in 2011.
Polona Hercog, age 19, ranking mid-40’s, has the size (6 feet) to do some damage. She made the final in Acapulco
Melanie Oudin, age 19, ranking mid-60’s, did not rival her spectacular accomplishments of 2009 – call it a sophomore slump. She may flirt with the top 20 some day.
Bojana Jovanovski, age 19 barely (born 31 Dec 91), ranking about 70. Her victory over Jankovic in Beijing
Rebecca Marino, age 20 (Dec 90), ranking about 110, showed great consistency in winning 3 tournaments and 15 consecutive matches at ITF events at year end. She also played through qualifying at the US Open before losing a first set tiebreaker to Venus Williams in the 2nd round. If all goes well she could reach top 50 in 2011.
Kristina McHale, age 18, ranking about 115, beat Azarenka and Petrova in 2010. At 5’7” she will have difficulty challenging for the top but she could make top 10 one day and may reach 50 in 2011.
Ajla Tomljanovic, age 17, ranking mid-150’s, won an ITF event in 2010 and is already 5’11”. She has size and age on her side and should be able to break into the top 100 in 2011, maybe higher.
Zarina Diyas, age 17, ranking 170’s, is another member of the Kazakh cohort currently storming pro tennis. She gave notice by plowing through qualifying in Moscow
Magda Linette, age 18, ranking 180’s, won 3 straight ITF tournaments and 21 straight matches in Sep-Oct. Future unknown but looks promising.
Michelle Larcher de Brito, age 17, ranking 190’s, has age though not size (5’5”) on her side. Renowned for being perhaps the loudest screecher on the tour, her biggest scalp in 2010 was over #39, Govortsova. She made more noise in 2009 beating Zheng on the way to the 3rd round of the French. Could get to 100 in 2011.
Laura Robson, age 16, ranking 190’s, is the next great British hope and is young enough for those expectations to remain buoyed. Already 5’10” the future may indeed be promising. She lost in a second set tiebreaker to Jankovic at Wimbledon and looks to have some big game potential although I’d be surprised to see her much past 80-100 in 2011.
Sloane Stephens, age 17, ranking about 230, has not shown any breathtaking results but is young enough that her American compatriots are still hoping anything could happen.
Kristina Mladenovic, age 17, ranking about 260, at 5’11” is the next big thing from France
It’s hard to know if any future champions or top 10 players will emerge from this lot. Perhaps the next #1 is labouring obscurely elsewhere or playing in the juniors.
Overall I do not foresee a major changing of the guard in 2011. There are enough players at or near the top, however, to make predicting difficult. Not that that will stop me…
2011 Grand Slams
Top 6 picks in order.
Australian – SWilliams, Clijsters, Wozniacki, Zvonareva, Henin, Azarenka
French – Henin, SWilliams, Clijsters, Wozniacki, Schiavone, Stosur
US – SWilliams, Clijsters, Henin, Wozniacki, VWilliams, Zvonareva
Top Ten Lists
Charles’ 2010 Rank | 2011 Projection |
(computer rank) | |
1. SWilliams (4) | 1. SWilliams |
2. Clijsters (3) | 2. Clijsters |
3. Wozniacki (1) | 3. Wozniacki |
4. Zvonareva (2) | 4. Henin |
5. Schiavone (7) | 5. Zvonareva |
6. VWilliams (5) | 6. VWilliams |
7. Stosur (6) | 7. Stosur |
8. Henin (12) | 8. Sharapova (18) |
9. Jankovic (8) | 9. Azarenka (10) |
10.Dementieva (9) | 10.Jankovic |
I actually think Schiavone will be very close to the top 10 in 2011, but the top is crowded and so I expect her to finish just outside. Ivanovic could also be close, along with Li and ARadwanska.
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