Roland Garros – Preview - 2009 - Men - 22 May 2009

Roland Garros – Preview - 2009

22 May 2009

Men’s Draw

First quarter

Rafael Nadal looms very large in this quarter.  He always seems hungry at Roland Garros and he will likely sail through to the QF.  Who might face him there is a bit less certain.  There are 3 very good clay courters on the opposite side of this quarter, any of whom could be worthy of a SF if Nadal weren’t in their way.  Davydenko and Wawrinka could produce an awesome clash in the 3^rd round, and it is a shame that they have to meet so soon.  Davydenko has been a little rusty since coming back from injury and his health continues to be in question.  If he’s feeling good he should get by Wawrinka, only to face a surging Verdasco.  Verdasco started to get hot at this time last year reaching the 4R at both RG and Wimbeldon.  But he knocked down the gate and stormed into contender status with his defeat of Murray at the Australian followed by a 5-set SF thriller in which he narrowly lost to Nadal.  Nadal has beaten him twice since to take their head to head to 9-0.  A fourth rounder between Verdasco and Davydenko or Wawrinka will be well-worth seeing.  Ultimately, it will be interesting to see how much of a dent (maybe a set?) Verdasco can make in Nadal’s armor.

Nadal def Verdasco

Second quarter

This is probably the weakest quarter in the men’s draw for producing a clear favourite.  Andy Murray has had some good results on clay this year, but he’s still probably only 5^th or 6^th best on clay behind Verdasco and Del Potro, or maybe even after Wawrinka and Monaco – it’s probably safe to consider him on the upper edge of the second echelon of clay-courters, behind the big 3.  It wouldn’t be a stretch that he could get into trouble against Zverev in the 2R.  The third and fourth rounds are seeded to bring up Lopez and Cilic, respectively, but neither has had their best results on clay.  The likely QF opponent for Murray is Gonzalez.  Safin and Simon are also in this section and, while both are dangerous on any given day, seem unlikely to sustain a run as far as a QF.  Gonzalez’s big hard-hitting game has translated well on grass and hardcourt, but he is no stranger to clay, having reached the QF here twice.  If Gonzalez keeps his head together, he could go deep.

Gonzalez def Murray

Third quarter

Djokovic is the top seed in this quarter.  He has had probably his best clay season to date, losing only to Nadal in each of the clay 1000 series tournaments.  The 3 match points he held against Nadal in Madrid have elevated that match to classic status – at least for this year.  He should breeze through to the QF, with minimal resistance from 16^th seed Robredo.  Waiting for him there will likely be #5 seed Juan Martin Del Potro.  JMDP has had some good results this year including wins over Nadal and Murray and twice over Wawrinka on clay.  Although he is seeded to meet #9 seed Tsonga in 4R, Tsonga has shown virtually no clay-court cred.  Other notables in this section include Andreev and Monaco, but expect JMDP to go through either of those.  Not so against Djokovic, who has been rounding brilliantly into form.

Djokovic def Del Potro

Fourth quarter

Federer looks unstoppable in this quarter.  His recent win over Nadal on clay has got to have given his confidence a boost.  Hopefully it will not have made him complacent in the assumption that he will win.  It was good to see a hungry Fed in Madrid, and if he maintains that attitude he should do well here.  If he starts acting again like he’s entitled as he did in much of 2008 and early 2009, he could be in trouble.  However, there is almost no reasonable opposition to him in this otherwise exceedingly weak quarter.  Andy Roddick is seeded opposite him and given the weakness of the players around him, I could almost see Roddick making the QF.  I could also see AR losing in the 2R to dedicated clay-courter Oscar Hernandez.  The dangerous seed here is Gael Monfils who played a very close and entertaining SF here last year against Federer.  Monfils health is in question and given the slightest provocation he seems likely to lose.  Nevertheless Monfils’ draw looks decidedly unchallenging with the biggest threat before the QF likely to come from Melzer or Roddick – neither of whom has been past 3R here.  Trepidatiously therefore, I predict Monfils to limp through to the QF.

Federer def Monfils

SF 1

Gonzalez has got huge game, but harnessing it has always been a problem.  Nadal on the other hand could give lessons in realizing potential.  With Nadal’s insatiable hunger and clay history, he should blitz Gonzalez in straights.

Nadal def Gonzalez

SF 2

Until 2009, Federer has been the clear #2 on clay for the last several years behind Nadal.  But this year, Djokovic had clearly usurped that position in the eyes of many with his successive finals in Monte Carlo and Rome, followed by the match points in the SF of Madrid.  However the situation became less clear when Federer reasserted himself and shocked Nadal in straights at Madrid.  Federer and Djokovic are almost equal favourites going into RG with the bookies.  A semifinal between these two will be for bragging rights for #2 on clay.  A loss for Federer could be devastating for his confidence going into Wimbledon.  Djokovic is more likely to be able to shake off a SF loss without harming the trajectory of his still ascending career.  That positive mental attitude could make the difference in this evenly-matched contest, even in the face of Federer’s monumental talent.  It will depend largely on Federer’s head space – whether he’s putting pressure on himself or playing freely.  The burden is on Federer and he’s likely to feel it – turning 28 this year, how many more shots will he get at RG?

Djokovic def Federer

Final

Which half of the draw Djokovic would end up in may well have determined the eventual winner of this tournament.  There were many, myself included, who thought that Nadal might be vulnerable if he had to face Djokovic and Federer back to back, as he did in Madrid:  the old one-two punch of the softener and the finisher.  However with Novak and Roger likely to square off in the SF, Nadal should be strong enough to prevail against either.  Djokovic has shown great clay court smarts this year and seems to be in a good head space.  He could grab a set, but not likely much more.

Nadal def Djokovic.

Here are the odds from bookies.com for the RG men’s winner from 20 May – average of all bookies reporting:

1	Nadal, R	1.31
2	Federer, R	7.34
3	Djokovic, N	8.71
4	Murray, A	15.32
5	Verdasco, F	29.26
6	Del Potro, JM	49.42
7	Davydenko, N	66.29
8	Ferrer, D	74.84
9	González, F	85.74
10	Gilles Monfils	101.00
11	Wawrinka, S	114.21
12	Tsonga, JW	129.89
13	Monfils, G	132.19
14	Almagro, N	145.89
15	Simon, G	148.00
16	Robredo, T	151.16
17	Monaco, J	163.35
18	Roddick, A	189.32
19	Andreev, I	205.11
20	Ferrero, JC	207.89