Wimbledon 2009 – Women’s Preview - 19 Jun 2009

Wimbledon 2009 – Women’s Preview

19 June 2009

Despite seven titles in nine episodes of Wimbledon this decade for the Williams sisters, predicting a winner among the women is fraught with hazards.  Although Venus had a win at the year-end championships in November and Serena claimed a 4^th Australian crown in February, the sisters have not looked sharp this year.  Recent #1’s Ana Ivanovic, Jelena Jankovic, and Dinara Safina do not look to be favourites on grass, having not shown much depth at the All England Club.  Given the prerogative exercised by the All England Club in issuing seedings, it is a little surprising that 5-time champion and winner of the last two championships, Venus, was not given the top position.  Nevertheless being placed on opposite sides of the draw may strengthen the resolve of the Williams sisters, or it may not…  It may be wiser to roll the dice than reason a way to this year’s female final, but here we go…

First Quarter – Safina quarter

There are some notable Wimbledon achievers in this quarter including 2006 champion Amelie Mauresmo and former QF and SF finisher Kimiko Date Krumm.  However, both appear past their prime, especially the 38 year old Date Krumm for whom any match win would be a victory.  Mauresmo may have a little more in the tank and surprised by taking the premier-level title at Paris in February and making the SF at Madrid.  She seems to thrive on grass and could win a few rounds here but the fire of her 2006 campaign is long departed.

Date Krumm’s task is all the harder because she faces rising Dane #9 seed Caroline Wozniacki in the first round.  Wozniacki made 3R here last year, but has improved significantly since then and could make a run to the second week.  Standing in her way could be newly minted French Open champion Svetlana Kuznetsova, seeded #5.

Kuznetsova faltered badly on grass last week in her first post-RG match, but should improve a little now that the seal on her victory is broken.  Whether she will bother to try to win a few matches here is anyone’s guess.

Safina is the top seed and has not flourished on Wimbledon grass.  Her best previous finish is only 3^rd round.  Still, she has shown renewed determination of late and made it to the final of 3 of the last 5 grand slam tournaments.  She seemed out of sorts in the RG final defeat to Kuznetsova and she may well have learned a valuable lesson that will propel her to victory in her next final attempt.  It seems unlikely that it will occur here, at least this year.

Predicting quaterfinalists in this section seems futile.  A Lisicki, Szavay, or Morigami could as well come through as any I’ve mentioned so far.  Nevertheless…

Wozniacki def Safina

Second Quarter – Venus quarter

With 5 victories at Wimbledon this decade, picking against Venus would seem as unwise as picking against Serena at the Aus Open in an odd-numbered year.  After her YEC win last fall, she had a nice two tournament streak picking up titles at Dubai and Acapulco consecutively in late winter.  She then made a SF at Rome but followed up with 1R loss at Madrid and an indifferent 3R at RG.  Her form has been patchy at best, and all this is probably irrelevant as she begins Wimbledon.  She loves the grass here, and could mow over the competition.  She could also lose 2R to Kateryna Bondarenko.

Providing resistance in Venus’s Serb-heavy quarter could be resurgent Jelena Dokic (one SF, one QF finish), slumping Ana Ivanovic (one SF), Jelena Jankovic (three 4Rs), or Pole Agnieska Radwanska (one QF).  Any of these could provide a tough match, but likely won’t prevail.

China’s Na Li made the QF in 2006 and could very well match that this year.  Sylvie Bammer may also be worth watching.

Venus def Li

Third Quarter – Dementieva quarter

While attempting to predict the first quarter seemed utterly futile, this one is impossible.  Dementieva did muster a SF here last year, but her form of late has been so dismal, a repeat appears highly unlikely.  Still this is grass, and anything can happen.

Sesil Karatantcheva may provide an interesting subplot.  The highly touted teenager had her career sidelined for a doping violation and has been slowly clawing back over the past couple of years.  She made a splash by making the French QF at age 15.  She probably has the talent to do some damage at this year’s tournament, but she has seemed unable to retrieve the form or self-belief necessary to realize it.  She has a very stiff challenge in the first round against #27 seed Alisa Kleybanova who debuted in the 4R last year.  This could go either way.

Recent French Open semifinalist, Cibulkova could make some noise in this quarter, but a 1R loss last year may indicate her game is not well-suited to grass.  Vera Zvonareva has the talent to do well anywhere, but has never progressed beyond the 4^th round here.  Worse, her form is in question after a lengthy layoff following a rolled ankle in spring.

Dark horses in this quarter include France’s Virginie Razzano and Aravane Rezai and Canada’s Aleksandra Wozniak, from nations whose players tend to outperform on grass.

Not to be overlooked however is another Frenchwoman, #12 seed Marion Bartoli, who was runner-up at the All England Club in 2007.  The mercurial Bartoli seems plagued by a penchant for the bizarre, and a run into the second week may be as likely as 1R loss.  But her game is well-suited for grass and she seems to enjoy it here.

Picking the quarterfinalists really seems hopelessly out of reach, and Karolina Sprem and Urszula Radwanska may be as likely as any.  I’m sure I will regret this…

Wozniak def Karatantcheva

Fourth Quarter – Serena quarter

That three of the (my) top four favourites for the tournament end up in the same quarter seems typical of the unbalanced draws that the WTA rankings seem to inevitably produce at the majors of late.  After struggling through the last quarter, we have an embarrassment of riches.

First up is the bookies favourite for the whole dang ge-schmozzle, Serena Williams.  Despite what could at best be called a very indifferent clay season, 3 straight losses before a QF loss to Kuznetsova at RG, Serena has shown that she can show up at a major in whatever form and walk away with the title.  Other than clay, she has looked fairly strong this year, with a win in Australia and runner-up at Miami.  The QF at RG is testament to her fighting spirit.  On a surface like grass that favours her game a bit more, she could go far.

Jie Zheng, semifinalist here last year, could be a dangerous 4R opponent, but will likely be unable to resist an in-form Serena. 

Battling for the other QF spot will likely be the decibel-shattering pair of Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova.  Both play with abandon from both wings and seem determined to rip the fuzz off the ball with their strokes if frightening it off with their screams doesn’t work.  Sharapova is returning slowly to form, and may seem at a disadvantage against an in-form Azarenka, but Sharapova’s greater big match experience may prove the decisive edge in this contest.

Although Sharapova surprised Serena in the 2004 final, don’t expect it to happen again.

Serena def Sharapova

Semifinal #1

If Venus makes it this far she should be in dominating form.  Wozniacki’s easy draw will run out abruptly, and despite a lot of improvement since last year, I doubt she has the game to challenge Venus on grass.

Winner:  Venus

Semifinal #2

Whoever comes out of the 3^rd quarter should be no match for whoever wins the 4^th quarter.

Winner Serena

Final

If another episode of the Serena vs Williams grand slam final series comes to fruition, it will be the 8^th such meeting and will move them out of a tie (with Federer-Nadal, Graf-Sanchez Vicario, and Wills Moody-Jacobs) and into sole possession of second place behind Evert-Navratilova who had 14 GS final meetings.  After last year’s epic battles between the sisters at Wimbledon and the US Open, predicting the winner seems perilous.  Despite Serena’s recent better form and higher ranking, Venus has shown more facility at Wimbledon and a better record here.

Champion:  Venus Williams

Here are today’s odds for the Wimbledon women’s winner from bookies.com, average of all bookies reporting:

1          3.45     Williams, S

2          4.27     Williams, V

3          9.29     Sharapova, M

4          10.00   Safina, D

5          13.15   Azarenka, V

6          16.32   Kuznetsova, S

7          20.06   Wozniacki, C

8          20.71   Ivanovic, A

9          26.41   Dementieva, E

10        31.88   Jankovic, J

11        40.29   Stosur, S

12        44.24   Bartoli, M

13        48.88   Radwanska, A

14        49.82   Zvonareva, V

15        58.29   Mauresmo, A

16        74.18   Wozniak, A

17        86.18   Wickmayer, Y

18        97.13   Li, Na

19        100.00 Magdalena, R

19        100.00 Rybarikova, M

21        102.75 Petrova, N

22        108.19 Dokic, J

23        111.45 Razzano, V

24        111.56 Zheng, Jie

25        133.53 Cibulková, D

26        143.18 Tanasugarn, T

27        162.44 Chakvetadze, A

28        164.87 Szávay, Á

29        167.94 Hantuchova, D

30        174.00 Lisicki, S

31        194.24 Vaidišová, N

32        200.00 Flavia, P